Post by John Chanin on Jan 17, 2024 20:17:27 GMT
Thanks to greenchristian who did a good original profile, which I have referred to, but this is really a brand new profile by me.
Generally when a seat has a name like this, it is because there are two separate towns of roughly equal size, or the second one is in a different District. This is not the case here. Warwick and Leamington form a single town, sprawling across two rivers and a canal. Warwick is the older settlement, to the west of the Avon, and accounts for a quarter of the seat. Leamington to the east of the Avon sits on both sides of the Leam, the Avon’s main tributary, with the town centre to the north, but the majority of the population to the south. It has more than twice the population of Warwick, including the would-be independent suburb of Whitnash. The river Avon is hardly the Mississippi, being quite a small stream this far up, but to be fair there are only two crossings within the town, and both have quite distinct town centres.
Warwick is a historic town, with some fine old buildings in its pedestrianized centre, best known for its castle, originally built in Norman times, and associated with the Earls of Warwick, major players in mediaeval times. Today the castle is more of a theme park, owned by Madame Tussauds, with wax tableaux in its rooms, frequent tourist events, and a working trebuchet, which fires rocks into a muddy field on an island in the Avon. Warwick is middle-class but not overwhelmingly so, and has a substantial social housing sector of just under 20%, with much private renting in the town centre. Woodloes in the north of the town is mostly immediate post-war, and is cut off from the centre by the Grand Union canal. There is a large new quarter of Aylesford to the south-west alongside the racecourse, separated from the M40 by the Warwick Technology Park. Myton is on the wrong (south) side of the Avon, but is arguably part of Warwick rather than Leamington, from which it is separated by the canal and the main A452 road. Politically Warwick at local level is an old-fashioned Labour-Conservative battle, with the latter having the advantage in an average year, but Labour winning all 3 wards in 2023.
Leamington is much more modern. It had its origin as a spa in the late 1700s, but is largely a Victorian creation. There are grand Regency terraces in the centre, along with Victorian parks and the old pump room of the spa, and it has a much bigger shopping centre than Warwick. The Clarendon ward which covers this area is 60% managerial, though it includes lots of students and private renting. It is also curiously the only Labour held ward currently in Leamington, despite its middle-class nature. The north of the town is mostly inter-war leafy suburbs, although there is a large council estate in Lillington. Milverton is even more up market than the centre, and with less students. This area forms the core Liberal Democrat vote in the town at local level. South of the Leam is rather different. Brunswick is the most working-class area in the seat, with a third social rented, and more routine than managerial workers. Neighbouring Willes is more up market, and this area on the east of town has much industry. A large number of students are to be found here as well as in the centre, which is curious at first sight, as there is no university in Leamington. However this is a favoured location for students at Warwick University, on the outskirts of Coventry, and there is a bus service taking students directly there. Sticking to the stereotypes for once these two wards return Green councillors to the District Council.
Further south are two areas that are definitely part of the modern town, but have an independent feel. Whitnash is essentially an old village, long swallowed up, but votes resolutely for the Whitnash Ratepayers (eventually renamed Whitnash Residents), and has done since time immemorial. There is a lot of post-war development, and the area has the lowest percentage of managerial workers outside Brunswick despite the highest proportion of owner-occupation. West of Whitnash is an enormous industrial area, separating Leamington from Myton, including a large out of town shopping centre. South of here is an entirely new quarter of the town, Heathcote, with its roads quaintly named after Shakespearean characters. This is entirely private development. Half of it is currently linked with Myton in a normally Conservative ward, and the other half is included in the semi-rural Bishops Tachbrook ward. Bishops Tachbrook itself, halfway between Leamington and the M40, is now the only remaining village in the seat (but see below). It isn’t a particularly attractive village, with much modern development, but like most commuter villages it is both very middle-class and very Conservative.
The Boundary Commission have done something very strange here. In the whole of Warwickshire only one change was required to bring all the seats into quota - the transfer of the rural Budbrooke ward from this seat to Kenilworth & Southam. The Commission turned down the opportunity to realign the constituencies closer to local government boundaries, for the usual minimal change reason. But then in its final proposals it shifted the mostly rural Radford Semele ward with its 2600 voters the other way, quite unnecessarily as both seats remained in quota - a rare last minute alteration after consultation on the revised proposals. They claim this is due to evidence of ‘local ties’ but this seems misleading. I very much doubt that the inhabitants of Radford Semele, a commuter village slightly to the east of Leamington, let alone the other small villages in the ward, wanted to be included in the nearby town. But the Conservative Party certainly wanted them to. They fought very hard to retain most of the Budbrooke ward within the seat, losing the argument twice, and switched at the last minute to this alternative way of shoehorning a few more Conservative votes into the seat. Needless to say the ward is safely Conservative , and provided 1 of the 2 Conservative councillors elected here (out of 31) in 2023.
In summary this is a thoroughly middle-class seat, almost entirely urban, with a lot of students. It has a substantial south asian population, unusually overwhelmingly Sikh, concentrated in the south of Leamington where it amounts to 15%. It is also very prosperous, with much industry still in place, a specialization in computer games, and a location close to the M40 permitting easy transport to Birmingham and London, as does the Chiltern railway line which passes through the town. In local politics it is very mixed, with Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green, all having a presence. Nationally it is a key marginal, but this is quite a recent development. Once the seat of Anthony Eden, it passed to Dudley Smith in 1968, and was considered a safe Conservative seat. But expansion of the town led to the seat becoming ever more urban, and it was one of Labour’s surprise gains in 1997, Dudley Smith having served as its MP for 30 years. Labour clung on by 266 votes in 2005, but lost to the Conservatives in 2010, despite favourable boundary changes that removed most of the rural hinterland to the new Kenilworth & Southam seat. It was then one of Labour’s unexpected gains in 2017, but unlike most of the rest of the country there was virtually no swing to the Conservatives in 2019 - partly explained by the fact that Warwick District was the only local authority in the West Midlands to vote Remain at the referendum, and by a decisive 59% too. MP Matt Western was a manager at Peugeot prior to election, and therefore is one of the few Labour MPs with a business background. The minor boundary change will assist him in retaining the seat.
Census data: Owner-occupied 62% (370/575 in England & Wales), private rented 21% (173rd), social rented 17% (222nd).
: White 82%(386th), Black 1%(311th), South Asian 9%(117th), Mixed 3%(183rd), Other 4%(194th)
: Sikh 6%(17th)
: Managerial & professional 50% (70th), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (439th)
: Degree 45%(71st), Minimal qualifications 21%(500th)
: Students 10% (89th), Over 65: 17% (386th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 94% from Warwick & Leamington, and 6% from Kenilworth &Southam
93% of the old seat is in the new one, with 7% going to Kenilworth &Southam
Generally when a seat has a name like this, it is because there are two separate towns of roughly equal size, or the second one is in a different District. This is not the case here. Warwick and Leamington form a single town, sprawling across two rivers and a canal. Warwick is the older settlement, to the west of the Avon, and accounts for a quarter of the seat. Leamington to the east of the Avon sits on both sides of the Leam, the Avon’s main tributary, with the town centre to the north, but the majority of the population to the south. It has more than twice the population of Warwick, including the would-be independent suburb of Whitnash. The river Avon is hardly the Mississippi, being quite a small stream this far up, but to be fair there are only two crossings within the town, and both have quite distinct town centres.
Warwick is a historic town, with some fine old buildings in its pedestrianized centre, best known for its castle, originally built in Norman times, and associated with the Earls of Warwick, major players in mediaeval times. Today the castle is more of a theme park, owned by Madame Tussauds, with wax tableaux in its rooms, frequent tourist events, and a working trebuchet, which fires rocks into a muddy field on an island in the Avon. Warwick is middle-class but not overwhelmingly so, and has a substantial social housing sector of just under 20%, with much private renting in the town centre. Woodloes in the north of the town is mostly immediate post-war, and is cut off from the centre by the Grand Union canal. There is a large new quarter of Aylesford to the south-west alongside the racecourse, separated from the M40 by the Warwick Technology Park. Myton is on the wrong (south) side of the Avon, but is arguably part of Warwick rather than Leamington, from which it is separated by the canal and the main A452 road. Politically Warwick at local level is an old-fashioned Labour-Conservative battle, with the latter having the advantage in an average year, but Labour winning all 3 wards in 2023.
Leamington is much more modern. It had its origin as a spa in the late 1700s, but is largely a Victorian creation. There are grand Regency terraces in the centre, along with Victorian parks and the old pump room of the spa, and it has a much bigger shopping centre than Warwick. The Clarendon ward which covers this area is 60% managerial, though it includes lots of students and private renting. It is also curiously the only Labour held ward currently in Leamington, despite its middle-class nature. The north of the town is mostly inter-war leafy suburbs, although there is a large council estate in Lillington. Milverton is even more up market than the centre, and with less students. This area forms the core Liberal Democrat vote in the town at local level. South of the Leam is rather different. Brunswick is the most working-class area in the seat, with a third social rented, and more routine than managerial workers. Neighbouring Willes is more up market, and this area on the east of town has much industry. A large number of students are to be found here as well as in the centre, which is curious at first sight, as there is no university in Leamington. However this is a favoured location for students at Warwick University, on the outskirts of Coventry, and there is a bus service taking students directly there. Sticking to the stereotypes for once these two wards return Green councillors to the District Council.
Further south are two areas that are definitely part of the modern town, but have an independent feel. Whitnash is essentially an old village, long swallowed up, but votes resolutely for the Whitnash Ratepayers (eventually renamed Whitnash Residents), and has done since time immemorial. There is a lot of post-war development, and the area has the lowest percentage of managerial workers outside Brunswick despite the highest proportion of owner-occupation. West of Whitnash is an enormous industrial area, separating Leamington from Myton, including a large out of town shopping centre. South of here is an entirely new quarter of the town, Heathcote, with its roads quaintly named after Shakespearean characters. This is entirely private development. Half of it is currently linked with Myton in a normally Conservative ward, and the other half is included in the semi-rural Bishops Tachbrook ward. Bishops Tachbrook itself, halfway between Leamington and the M40, is now the only remaining village in the seat (but see below). It isn’t a particularly attractive village, with much modern development, but like most commuter villages it is both very middle-class and very Conservative.
The Boundary Commission have done something very strange here. In the whole of Warwickshire only one change was required to bring all the seats into quota - the transfer of the rural Budbrooke ward from this seat to Kenilworth & Southam. The Commission turned down the opportunity to realign the constituencies closer to local government boundaries, for the usual minimal change reason. But then in its final proposals it shifted the mostly rural Radford Semele ward with its 2600 voters the other way, quite unnecessarily as both seats remained in quota - a rare last minute alteration after consultation on the revised proposals. They claim this is due to evidence of ‘local ties’ but this seems misleading. I very much doubt that the inhabitants of Radford Semele, a commuter village slightly to the east of Leamington, let alone the other small villages in the ward, wanted to be included in the nearby town. But the Conservative Party certainly wanted them to. They fought very hard to retain most of the Budbrooke ward within the seat, losing the argument twice, and switched at the last minute to this alternative way of shoehorning a few more Conservative votes into the seat. Needless to say the ward is safely Conservative , and provided 1 of the 2 Conservative councillors elected here (out of 31) in 2023.
In summary this is a thoroughly middle-class seat, almost entirely urban, with a lot of students. It has a substantial south asian population, unusually overwhelmingly Sikh, concentrated in the south of Leamington where it amounts to 15%. It is also very prosperous, with much industry still in place, a specialization in computer games, and a location close to the M40 permitting easy transport to Birmingham and London, as does the Chiltern railway line which passes through the town. In local politics it is very mixed, with Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green, all having a presence. Nationally it is a key marginal, but this is quite a recent development. Once the seat of Anthony Eden, it passed to Dudley Smith in 1968, and was considered a safe Conservative seat. But expansion of the town led to the seat becoming ever more urban, and it was one of Labour’s surprise gains in 1997, Dudley Smith having served as its MP for 30 years. Labour clung on by 266 votes in 2005, but lost to the Conservatives in 2010, despite favourable boundary changes that removed most of the rural hinterland to the new Kenilworth & Southam seat. It was then one of Labour’s unexpected gains in 2017, but unlike most of the rest of the country there was virtually no swing to the Conservatives in 2019 - partly explained by the fact that Warwick District was the only local authority in the West Midlands to vote Remain at the referendum, and by a decisive 59% too. MP Matt Western was a manager at Peugeot prior to election, and therefore is one of the few Labour MPs with a business background. The minor boundary change will assist him in retaining the seat.
Census data: Owner-occupied 62% (370/575 in England & Wales), private rented 21% (173rd), social rented 17% (222nd).
: White 82%(386th), Black 1%(311th), South Asian 9%(117th), Mixed 3%(183rd), Other 4%(194th)
: Sikh 6%(17th)
: Managerial & professional 50% (70th), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (439th)
: Degree 45%(71st), Minimal qualifications 21%(500th)
: Students 10% (89th), Over 65: 17% (386th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 94% from Warwick & Leamington, and 6% from Kenilworth &Southam
93% of the old seat is in the new one, with 7% going to Kenilworth &Southam
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Labour | 25,227 | 46.7 | 23,718 | 43.8 | 22,613 | 43.3 |
Conservative | 24,021 | 44.4 | 22,929 | 42.3 | 21,444 | 41.1 |
Liberal Democrat | 2,810 | 5.2 | 4,995 | 9.2 | 5,693 | 10.9 |
UKIP/Brexit | 799 | 1.5 | 807 | 1.5 | 721 | 1.4 |
Green | 1,198 | 2.2 | 1,536 | 2.8 | 1,517 | 2.9 |
Other | 220 | 0.4 | 220 | 0.4 | ||
| Majority | 1,206 | 2.2 | 789 | 1.5 | 1,169 | 2.2 |