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Post by michaelarden on Mar 1, 2024 14:27:44 GMT
I think a significant thing for the General Election is Galloway’s overtures to David Tully. Galloway won’t want him standing in the General, but would want him as an ally on the council. I suspect a deal for the local elections is in the offing. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 1, 2024 14:42:57 GMT
I think a significant thing for the General Election is Galloway’s overtures to David Tully. Galloway won’t want him standing in the General, but would want him as an ally on the council. I suspect a deal for the local elections is in the offing. Would Tully really want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 1, 2024 14:43:00 GMT
Regardless of my personal distaste for his brand of politics, his behaviour and his way of operating his ability to drop into a place and get a successful campaign going is remarkable. He’s in his 70th year, like me. Are you saluting his courage, his strength, his indefatigability? Aargh. |
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 1, 2024 14:47:17 GMT
I suspect a deal for the local elections is in the offing. Would Tully real want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! Wouldn't be so sure. Galloway's reputation is something that political geeks may obsess about but for many he is an anti establishment campaigner standing up for the little guy against authority - the sort of people who voted for Tully and the Lib Dems previously. The Labour council is the establishment and they'll be plenty of votes against them (and for the football club for example) in local elections. |
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 14:49:24 GMT
The proportion of muslims in Rochdale is 30% - it was over 50% in Bradford West in 2012. Obviously Galloway does attract some support beyond that demographic but the correlation is pretty strong. He exceeded the muslim share by more here than he did in Bradford West I accept that - but he he did not come close to holding Bradford West in 2015 and is even less likely to hold Rochdale. the one thing that many including yourself overlook in coming to this conclusion is that by 2015 Galloway was very obviously losing interest in the constituency and had started to piss voters off for other reasons too. It had been several years since he took the seat in the by-election. This time however the closeness to the general election, much though it pains me to say it, helps him. He could lose, but it's going to be far from easy for Labour to oust him. And Tully may well want another pop, and could help split the anti-Galloway vote. |
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 14:56:02 GMT
Rochdale By -Election: A three way seat, methinks. One of the most interesting by-election in years due to the absolutely chaos of it all! - Labour candidate is still officially the candidate despite party abandoning him after news of his remarks on Jewish figures and Palestine. Could win still as Rochdale heavily Labour. - George Galloway again successfully courts the local Muslim vote to get him in as many hold strong views on the Isreal-Palestine and feel that Labour do not represent them. I'm not a fan of him at all. He last won a by election in spectacular fashion in 2012 under the same set of circumstances but was trounced at the 2015 GE - Reform UK Simon Danzuk (Former Labour MP) just clinches it. But only just. Has focused on immigration etc but hasn't won the vital support from the large Muslim community, so this won't help him much. Tiny majority for whoever the winner is. Nomination for "2024 post that didn't age well" in the VUKFPOTY awards? I did have similar thoughts, but let's be honest, none of our predictions were exactly gloriously accurate |
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 1, 2024 14:57:14 GMT
I suspect a deal for the local elections is in the offing. Would Tully really want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! Having checked in with the one person I know that lives in this constituency... he voted for Tully, but he is vey disappointed Galloway got in. He is normally a Tory voter, never voted Labour, but on the moderate wing of the party. I very much suspect that the number of potential Tully to Galloway switchers will be very small. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2024 15:08:36 GMT
Nomination for "2024 post that didn't age well" in the VUKFPOTY awards? I did have similar thoughts, but let's be honest, none of our predictions were exactly gloriously accurate Maybe gwynthegriff's was - perhaps he could point us to it? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 1, 2024 15:24:36 GMT
By the way, the football club ceases to be an issue today - they've been taken over by the owners of MVV Maastricht (of course). So Rochdalians can safely go back to not watching their football club.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 1, 2024 15:25:28 GMT
One thing I have just been considering- if our (Labour’s) vote share is plummeting in seats with a a high Muslim population, YET we are still polling at 42-47% nationally. Doesn’t that mean that the polls are actually even more devastating for the Tories as we’re gaining even more ground in middle Britain/the average Tory-held seat, than you might expect from the raw numbers
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 1, 2024 15:26:26 GMT
I accept that - but he he did not come close to holding Bradford West in 2015 and is even less likely to hold Rochdale. the one thing that many including yourself overlook in coming to this conclusion is that by 2015 Galloway was very obviously losing interest in the constituency and had started to piss voters off for other reasons too. It had been several years since he took the seat in the by-election. This time however the closeness to the general election, much though it pains me to say it, helps him. He could lose, but it's going to be far from easy for Labour to oust him. And Tully may well want another pop, and could help split the anti-Galloway vote. Tully fought the seat pretty much as a Local Election but I seriously doubt he would figure prominently in the context of a GE with Labour campaigning strongly to oust Galloway. Indeed quite a few anti-Galloway tactical votes may well come Labour's way. There is some danger of getting carried away by Galloway's performance. He fell just short of 40% on a low turnout. Apparently Boundary changes do not favour him. I suspect he will do well to hit 20% in the GE.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Mar 1, 2024 15:29:55 GMT
Rochdale By -Election: A three way seat, methinks. One of the most interesting by-election in years due to the absolutely chaos of it all! - Labour candidate is still officially the candidate despite party abandoning him after news of his remarks on Jewish figures and Palestine. Could win still as Rochdale heavily Labour. - George Galloway again successfully courts the local Muslim vote to get him in as many hold strong views on the Isreal-Palestine and feel that Labour do not represent them. I'm not a fan of him at all. He last won a by election in spectacular fashion in 2012 under the same set of circumstances but was trounced at the 2015 GE - Reform UK Simon Danzuk (Former Labour MP) just clinches it. But only just. Has focused on immigration etc but hasn't won the vital support from the large Muslim community, so this won't help him much. Tiny majority for whoever the winner is. Nomination for "2024 post that didn't age well" in the VUKFPOTY awards? Well - that prediction got the sixth-placed candidate as the most likely winner, had the fourth-placed candidate as still being in serious contention, and a three-way near tie rather than a majority of almost 20% for the actual winner. But it did have the actual winner as polling strongly and with a chance of winning, on the basis of an issue and section of the electorate that do seem to have been the backbone of his support. But even if many others also predicted that last point, that does not ensure that they were better - and I am fairly sure that a detailed check would throw up even worse ones, which would surely be even more entitled to the nomination. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 1, 2024 15:42:03 GMT
the one thing that many including yourself overlook in coming to this conclusion is that by 2015 Galloway was very obviously losing interest in the constituency and had started to piss voters off for other reasons too. It had been several years since he took the seat in the by-election. This time however the closeness to the general election, much though it pains me to say it, helps him. He could lose, but it's going to be far from easy for Labour to oust him. And Tully may well want another pop, and could help split the anti-Galloway vote. Tully fought the seat pretty much as a Local Election but I seriously doubt he would figure prominently in the context of a GE with Labour campaigning strongly to oust Galloway. Indeed quite a few anti-Galloway tactical votes may well come Labour's way. There is some danger of getting carried away by Galloway's performance. He fell just short of 40% on a low turnout. Apparently Boundary changes do not favour him. I suspect he will do well to hit 20% in the GE.
I doubt it'll be a strong campaign. Rochdale will be twinned elsewhere. Probably with Bury |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Mar 1, 2024 15:50:37 GMT
There is some danger of getting carried away by Galloway's performance. He fell just short of 40% on a low turnout. Apparently Boundary changes do not favour him. I suspect he will do well to hit 20% in the GE.
I hope you are right. But cockroaches ....... |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 1, 2024 16:00:32 GMT
By the way, the football club ceases to be an issue today - they've been taken over by the owners of MVV Maastricht (of course). So Rochdalians can safely go back to not watching their football club. Galloway is very good at taking credit for other people's achievements/things beyond his control, I look forward to seeing how he does so in this case. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Mar 1, 2024 16:01:21 GMT
'Yes, Galloway won Rochdale. But it’s the runner up who really tells us about politics in the town', article from the Manchester Mill. manchestermill.co.uk/p/yes-galloway-won-rochdale-but-itsSome of the article is behind a paywall. You can 'Keep reading with a 7-day free trial', which I haven't done. Posting a link without reading all the article might not be a good idea, but you might still be interested in the free-to-read part of the article. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 1, 2024 16:39:21 GMT
I did have similar thoughts, but let's be honest, none of our predictions were exactly gloriously accurate Maybe gwynthegriff's was - perhaps he could point us to it? I didn't make a prediction. Wise perhaps, given the bizarre nature of the whole event. |
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Post by willpower3 on Mar 1, 2024 16:46:23 GMT
Apparently the mouthy woman who heckled him near the start of his speech was pissed off about what she called his "climate change denialism". When I first watched it I had the impression that it was due to him beginning the speech by saying "This is for Gaza".
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right
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Post by right on Mar 1, 2024 16:56:18 GMT
Would Tully real want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! Wouldn't be so sure. Galloway's reputation is something that political geeks may obsess about but for many he is an anti establishment campaigner standing up for the little guy against authority - the sort of people who voted for Tully and the Lib Dems previously. The Labour council is the establishment and they'll be plenty of votes against them (and for the football club for example) in local elections. It would also give Galloway a ready made local agenda leading into a general election Tully could dictate what is said in Westminster around Rochdale issues until the election, and may kid himself that he won't be dropped after the acceptance speech |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 1, 2024 17:00:14 GMT
Would Tully really want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! Having checked in with the one person I know that lives in this constituency... he voted for Tully, but he is vey disappointed Galloway got in. He is normally a Tory voter, never voted Labour, but on the moderate wing of the party. I very much suspect that the number of potential Tully to Galloway switchers will be very small. I suspect you're right. But what if Galloway breaks form and runs on a strongly localist Lib be Dem type campaign? |
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