Post by John Chanin on Jan 13, 2024 11:54:00 GMT
Thanks to WJ who did the original profile for this seat.
The Wrekin, named after the prominent hill that looms over the Shropshire plain, takes in a large chunk of eastern Shropshire and it is one of two seats to cover the Telford and Wrekin unitary authority. The seat also takes in 20,000 voters from Shropshire proper, both north and south of the new town. There has been a constituency with this name since 1918 and the boundaries were rather consistent until 1997, when the new town of Telford was split away.
This highly heterogeneous seat can be divided into 4 parts. Firstly 11,000 voters come from the new town wards of Donnington (nothing to do with the racetrack, which is in Derbyshire) and Leegomery & Hadley. These two wards have lots of social housing, routine workers, and few educational qualifications, making them quite different from the rest of the seat. As you would expect all the housing is post war, and there has been much right to buy, with owner-occupation now around 50%. The main Labour strength in this constituency comes from here, both wards being safely Labour at local elections, although no doubt they deserted Labour in large numbers at the 2019 election like the rest of the new town.
Also part of Telford & the Wrekin is Wellington, which is very different. This is an old market town - the largest of the settlements absorbed into the new town - with a population of 25,000, which accounts for a further quarter of the seat. Wellington still has something of an independent identity, and the central part of the town is largely pre-war. Arleston to the south-east has demographics similar to the new town, although the housing is older. There is also a lot of social housing in Haygate to the west of the town, although it is a little better off. Although the constituency is mainly white, there is a substantial asian population in Arleston, and the town centre (College ward), and these areas are reliably Labour voting too. Ercall to the south-west, and the newly developed areas to the north of town, are on the other hand very middle-class, with 45% managerial, and over a third with degrees. There is no social housing at all to speak of in the modern estates of Admaston, Shawbirch, and Apley Castle. These estates at local level provide a reliable Liberal Democrat presence on Telford & Wrekin Council, but no doubt stack up the Conservative votes at General elections. Ercall, which is a little older is the only reliable Conservative ward at local elections in Wellington.
The boundary of the original Dawley new town was extended into the surrounding Shropshire countryside, and in 1974 the new Wrekin borough incorporated the town of Newport. It was added to the Wrekin constituency though only in 1997 as part of the reorganization following the creation of a separate Telford seat. This is an independent town, with a handsome high street, a long history, a population of 13,000 including Church Aston, and decidedly middle-class demographics. It is more of a dormitory town for the Black Country, than for Telford, with the industry long typical of east Shropshire having disappeared. Historically the town was Conservative, but in recent local elections the Liberal Democrats have become competitive. To the south of Telford, and outside the unitary, are the small towns of Shifnal and Albrighton. Shifnal, with its ideal location on the M54 between Telford and Wolverhampton is one of the fastest growing towns in Shropshire, with new housing projects springing up like mushrooms. Albrighton is smaller, and just outside the town is RAF Cosford, a large Air Force hub, home to the Royal Air Force Museum and a major local employer. It became part of the Wrekin seat in 1997 after the creation of a separate Telford seat, as did Shifnal. Both are safely Conservative. These three towns provide roughly the same number of electors as Wellington.
These days, the Wrekin takes in the more rural wards to the north and west of Telford as well as the small towns. There are 15,000 voters within the unitary, and in the boundary changes here a further 6,500 have been added from North Shropshire. The Wrekin was the right size for a seat, but would have been a fraction short following realignment to new ward boundaries. However since the neighbouring seats of North Shropshire and Shrewsbury were both oversized there was little choice but to expand the seat northwards into Shropshire. To the west of the urban area, the conical pre-Cambrian mountain of the Wrekin itself looms over Wellington, with its hillfort on top. But there is nothing but villages in this large sparsely populated area, mostly good farming country, the best known of which is Lilleshall, where there is a major sporting centre in the grounds of what was once the home of the Duke of Sutherland (why dukes never live where their titles suggest remains a mystery). There is a giant obelisk dedicated to him. As usual the rural areas are solidly Conservative, even in 2023, with Liberal Democrats and independents having no success.
Politically, The Wrekin was a classic swing seat, switching between Labour and the Conservatives 13 times since the 1922 election with majorities rarely exceeding 15%. With the growth of Telford, these majorities got smaller and smaller. After Telford was given its own seat in 1997, it was thought that the days of close contests were over, with Telford being safe Labour, and the Wrekin safe Conservative. However it hasn’t turned out like that. Labour’s Peter Bradley won a surprise victory here in the 1997 landslide, and held on in 2001 against Jacob Rees-Mogg. Bradley founded and chaired the Rural Group of Labour MPs, whose main role was to help promote rural causes to a more metropolitan-minded party. He was also a prominent campaigner against countryside sports. Campaigning by the Countryside Alliance and their political wing, which targetted anti-hunting MPs probably helped Mark Pritchard of the Conservatives scrape over the line with a thin 942 vote (2%) majority in 2005. Pritchard, a former political advisor originally from Herefordshire, is still the MP here, and has built up his majority turning this marginal into a safe Conservative seat. Of course, this is not all of Pritchard’s doing, but merely following the rightward shift of new towns and their rural hinterlands. He has held numerous governmental roles and has been joint chair of the 1922 committee. Although a Eurosceptic, he became one of the more unlikely Conservatives to come out for the remain side during the campaign. That being said, he accepted the result and did not rebel during the May era.
In summary the Labour new town wards, and marginal Wellington, are normally well outvoted by the small town and rural component which accounts for half the constituency. Overall socioeconomic statistics show this to be a very average seat, but the average comes from polarization rather than uniform averageness.The addition of more rural voters in the boundary change will only improve the Conservative position. But it is worth noting that in the 2023 local elections Labour outvoted the Conservatives in the Telford & Wrekin section, and there must have been some Labour votes in the rural half when the seat was closely fought between 1997 and 2005, so the seat may not be entirely out of their reach.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (276/575 in England & Wales), private rented 18% (270th), social rented 15% (282nd).
: White 89%(310th), Black 2%(239th), South Asian 5%(204th), Mixed 2%(282nd), Other 2%(316th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (283rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (269th)
: Degree level 30%(354th), Minimal qualifications 28%(291st)
: Students 7% (189th), Over 65: 20% (238th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 91% from the Wrekin and 9% from North Shropshire
98% of the old seat is in the new one, with 2% going to Telford.
The Wrekin, named after the prominent hill that looms over the Shropshire plain, takes in a large chunk of eastern Shropshire and it is one of two seats to cover the Telford and Wrekin unitary authority. The seat also takes in 20,000 voters from Shropshire proper, both north and south of the new town. There has been a constituency with this name since 1918 and the boundaries were rather consistent until 1997, when the new town of Telford was split away.
This highly heterogeneous seat can be divided into 4 parts. Firstly 11,000 voters come from the new town wards of Donnington (nothing to do with the racetrack, which is in Derbyshire) and Leegomery & Hadley. These two wards have lots of social housing, routine workers, and few educational qualifications, making them quite different from the rest of the seat. As you would expect all the housing is post war, and there has been much right to buy, with owner-occupation now around 50%. The main Labour strength in this constituency comes from here, both wards being safely Labour at local elections, although no doubt they deserted Labour in large numbers at the 2019 election like the rest of the new town.
Also part of Telford & the Wrekin is Wellington, which is very different. This is an old market town - the largest of the settlements absorbed into the new town - with a population of 25,000, which accounts for a further quarter of the seat. Wellington still has something of an independent identity, and the central part of the town is largely pre-war. Arleston to the south-east has demographics similar to the new town, although the housing is older. There is also a lot of social housing in Haygate to the west of the town, although it is a little better off. Although the constituency is mainly white, there is a substantial asian population in Arleston, and the town centre (College ward), and these areas are reliably Labour voting too. Ercall to the south-west, and the newly developed areas to the north of town, are on the other hand very middle-class, with 45% managerial, and over a third with degrees. There is no social housing at all to speak of in the modern estates of Admaston, Shawbirch, and Apley Castle. These estates at local level provide a reliable Liberal Democrat presence on Telford & Wrekin Council, but no doubt stack up the Conservative votes at General elections. Ercall, which is a little older is the only reliable Conservative ward at local elections in Wellington.
The boundary of the original Dawley new town was extended into the surrounding Shropshire countryside, and in 1974 the new Wrekin borough incorporated the town of Newport. It was added to the Wrekin constituency though only in 1997 as part of the reorganization following the creation of a separate Telford seat. This is an independent town, with a handsome high street, a long history, a population of 13,000 including Church Aston, and decidedly middle-class demographics. It is more of a dormitory town for the Black Country, than for Telford, with the industry long typical of east Shropshire having disappeared. Historically the town was Conservative, but in recent local elections the Liberal Democrats have become competitive. To the south of Telford, and outside the unitary, are the small towns of Shifnal and Albrighton. Shifnal, with its ideal location on the M54 between Telford and Wolverhampton is one of the fastest growing towns in Shropshire, with new housing projects springing up like mushrooms. Albrighton is smaller, and just outside the town is RAF Cosford, a large Air Force hub, home to the Royal Air Force Museum and a major local employer. It became part of the Wrekin seat in 1997 after the creation of a separate Telford seat, as did Shifnal. Both are safely Conservative. These three towns provide roughly the same number of electors as Wellington.
These days, the Wrekin takes in the more rural wards to the north and west of Telford as well as the small towns. There are 15,000 voters within the unitary, and in the boundary changes here a further 6,500 have been added from North Shropshire. The Wrekin was the right size for a seat, but would have been a fraction short following realignment to new ward boundaries. However since the neighbouring seats of North Shropshire and Shrewsbury were both oversized there was little choice but to expand the seat northwards into Shropshire. To the west of the urban area, the conical pre-Cambrian mountain of the Wrekin itself looms over Wellington, with its hillfort on top. But there is nothing but villages in this large sparsely populated area, mostly good farming country, the best known of which is Lilleshall, where there is a major sporting centre in the grounds of what was once the home of the Duke of Sutherland (why dukes never live where their titles suggest remains a mystery). There is a giant obelisk dedicated to him. As usual the rural areas are solidly Conservative, even in 2023, with Liberal Democrats and independents having no success.
Politically, The Wrekin was a classic swing seat, switching between Labour and the Conservatives 13 times since the 1922 election with majorities rarely exceeding 15%. With the growth of Telford, these majorities got smaller and smaller. After Telford was given its own seat in 1997, it was thought that the days of close contests were over, with Telford being safe Labour, and the Wrekin safe Conservative. However it hasn’t turned out like that. Labour’s Peter Bradley won a surprise victory here in the 1997 landslide, and held on in 2001 against Jacob Rees-Mogg. Bradley founded and chaired the Rural Group of Labour MPs, whose main role was to help promote rural causes to a more metropolitan-minded party. He was also a prominent campaigner against countryside sports. Campaigning by the Countryside Alliance and their political wing, which targetted anti-hunting MPs probably helped Mark Pritchard of the Conservatives scrape over the line with a thin 942 vote (2%) majority in 2005. Pritchard, a former political advisor originally from Herefordshire, is still the MP here, and has built up his majority turning this marginal into a safe Conservative seat. Of course, this is not all of Pritchard’s doing, but merely following the rightward shift of new towns and their rural hinterlands. He has held numerous governmental roles and has been joint chair of the 1922 committee. Although a Eurosceptic, he became one of the more unlikely Conservatives to come out for the remain side during the campaign. That being said, he accepted the result and did not rebel during the May era.
In summary the Labour new town wards, and marginal Wellington, are normally well outvoted by the small town and rural component which accounts for half the constituency. Overall socioeconomic statistics show this to be a very average seat, but the average comes from polarization rather than uniform averageness.The addition of more rural voters in the boundary change will only improve the Conservative position. But it is worth noting that in the 2023 local elections Labour outvoted the Conservatives in the Telford & Wrekin section, and there must have been some Labour votes in the rural half when the seat was closely fought between 1997 and 2005, so the seat may not be entirely out of their reach.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (276/575 in England & Wales), private rented 18% (270th), social rented 15% (282nd).
: White 89%(310th), Black 2%(239th), South Asian 5%(204th), Mixed 2%(282nd), Other 2%(316th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (283rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (269th)
: Degree level 30%(354th), Minimal qualifications 28%(291st)
: Students 7% (189th), Over 65: 20% (238th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 91% from the Wrekin and 9% from North Shropshire
98% of the old seat is in the new one, with 2% going to Telford.
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 27,451 | 55.4 | 31,029 | 63.5 | 33,929 | 64.7 |
Labour | 17,887 | 36.1 | 12,303 | 25.2 | 12,756 | 24.3 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,345 | 2.7 | 4,067 | 8.3 | 4,212 | 8.0 |
UKIP | 1,656 | 3.3 | ||||
Green | 804 | 1.6 | 1,491 | 3.0 | 1,535 | 2.9 |
Other | 380 | 0.8 | ||||
| Majority | 9,564 | 19.3 | 18,726 | 38.3 | 21,173 | 40.4 |
