CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 7, 2024 22:16:44 GMT
Interesting.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 7, 2024 22:22:25 GMT
How far do we say, "they would say that wouldn't they?"
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,896 
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 8, 2024 0:27:04 GMT
Agreed. This isn’t Wellingborough, Skidmore hasn’t tried as spectacularly as Bone to offend the electorate Furthermore Reform UK's U-turn on not standing a candidate in this by-election will harm their performance significantly. Why? Who on earth will know or care other than a few anoraks like you. And don't you have your own problems will Misspeaking Lawyers oop north? Will this wreck your GE hopes? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 8, 2024 9:41:33 GMT
The only people who would have been upset by Reform not standing a candidate were people who wanted to vote Reform, and they will be happy now that they've reversed position. Plenty of other people thought it was amateurish, but they weren't going to vote Reform anyway.
If they do badly, it won't be because they ummed and ahed over standing a candidate, it'll be because not many people wanted to vote for them anyway.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 11, 2024 11:20:16 GMT
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,379
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Post by stb12 on Feb 11, 2024 14:40:18 GMT
Jackson Carlaw was the Tory candidate in that by-election |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 11, 2024 15:20:40 GMT
How low will turnout for this by-election be? There has been little media attention compared to the by-elections of Wellingborough and Rochdale, there are only 6 candidates standing, a Labour gain is basically a foregone conclusion, and the Kingswood constituency will cease to exist by the end of this year.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,175
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Post by r34t on Feb 11, 2024 16:42:46 GMT
How low will turnout for this by-election be? There has been little media attention compared to the by-elections of Wellingborough and Rochdale, there are only 6 candidates standing, a Labour gain is basically a foregone conclusion, and the Kingswood constituency will cease to exist by the end of this year. If the Tories get a half decent result Kingswood will disappear on 14th March |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Feb 11, 2024 17:02:17 GMT
Anne Widdecombe not warming the voters hearts then? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 11, 2024 18:37:35 GMT
Could Anne stand against JRM 🤔
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2024 19:29:55 GMT
Kingswood doesn't strike me as great territory for reform - a little too Bristolised. I've actually seen much more about this than Rochdale (and indeed totally forgot about the latter), but then again I do live much closer
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 11, 2024 20:06:25 GMT
Kingswood doesn't strike me as great territory for reform - a little too Bristolised. I've actually seen much more about this than Rochdale (and indeed totally forgot about the latter), but then again I do live much closer Possibly, but the demographics indicate the sort of "Bristolisation" going on in Kingswood isn't necessary bad news for Reform. Levels of private renting are low and there are low levels of internal migration indicating a stable population; most people work in middling jobs and drive to work (rather than working from home). I get the sense that Kingswood is home to many people who might have lived in Bristol twenty or thirty years ago but have moved to the suburbs both to get more housing for their money and also because the city proper has gentrified significantly. In some ways it feels like a bit of a Reform sweet spot - not high status or affluent enough to be naturally Tory (or Lib Dem), but a bit too owner occupied to be massively Labour. Another statistic worth keeping in mind to round this off - the proportion of graduates in each of the six urban seats in and around Bristol: West - 53.8% North West - 40.1% Filton & Bradley Stoke - 36.4% South - 35.4% East - 35.1% Kingswood - 28.4% |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 11, 2024 21:02:53 GMT
Kingswood doesn't strike me as great territory for reform - a little too Bristolised. I've actually seen much more about this than Rochdale (and indeed totally forgot about the latter), but then again I do live much closer Possibly, but the demographics indicate the sort of "Bristolisation" going on in Kingswood isn't necessary bad news for Reform. Levels of private renting are low and there are low levels of internal migration indicating a stable population; most people work in middling jobs and drive to work (rather than working from home). I get the sense that Kingswood is home to many people who might have lived in Bristol twenty or thirty years ago but have moved to the suburbs both to get more housing for their money and also because the city proper has gentrified significantly. In some ways it feels like a bit of a Reform sweet spot - not high status or affluent enough to be naturally Tory (or Lib Dem), but a bit too owner occupied to be massively Labour. Another statistic worth keeping in mind to round this off - the proportion of graduates in each of the six urban seats in and around Bristol: West - 53.8% North West - 40.1% Filton & Bradley Stoke - 36.4% South - 35.4% East - 35.1% Kingswood - 28.4% These figures hide wide disparities though, especially in Bristol South and Bristol East e.g. St George East ward in Bristol East having more than double the proportion of graduates of Stockwood ward, also within Bristol East. This disparity is even worse in Bristol South-Southville ward has nearly quadruple the proportion of graduates that Hartcliffe & Withywood ward does. Bristol's inequality levels are fast approaching those of London-the 2021 census statistics show that Bristol has 9 of the top 10 wards in the South West for graduates but also the top 2 wards in the South West for people with no qualifications. |
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 12, 2024 8:01:40 GMT
How low will turnout for this by-election be? There has been little media attention compared to the by-elections of Wellingborough and Rochdale, there are only 6 candidates standing, a Labour gain is basically a foregone conclusion, and the Kingswood constituency will cease to exist by the end of this year. The absence of media attention to this by-election is striking, given the extensive coverage of Wellingborough. It is hard to understand why. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Feb 12, 2024 8:59:06 GMT
Probably because a Labour gain is almost universally expected, whereas in Wellingborough the swing required is quite a bit more and therefore it’s not so easy to make such assumptions
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Post by froome on Feb 12, 2024 9:16:27 GMT
Kingswood doesn't strike me as great territory for reform - a little too Bristolised. I've actually seen much more about this than Rochdale (and indeed totally forgot about the latter), but then again I do live much closer Possibly, but the demographics indicate the sort of "Bristolisation" going on in Kingswood isn't necessary bad news for Reform. Levels of private renting are low and there are low levels of internal migration indicating a stable population; most people work in middling jobs and drive to work (rather than working from home). I get the sense that Kingswood is home to many people who might have lived in Bristol twenty or thirty years ago but have moved to the suburbs both to get more housing for their money and also because the city proper has gentrified significantly. In some ways it feels like a bit of a Reform sweet spot - not high status or affluent enough to be naturally Tory (or Lib Dem), but a bit too owner occupied to be massively Labour. Another statistic worth keeping in mind to round this off - the proportion of graduates in each of the six urban seats in and around Bristol: West - 53.8% North West - 40.1% Filton & Bradley Stoke - 36.4% South - 35.4% East - 35.1% Kingswood - 28.4% Kingswood constituency consists of two very different halves. One is Kingswood itself, which includes the wards of New Cheltenham and Woodstock. This is where the twon is, and this has a relatively stable, working-class demographic. The amount of migration from Bristol to here has always been low, so it is fairly immune from the Bristolisation effect. Reform could potentially appeal here, but it is far more likely to vote Labour strongly. The other half is the large mass of newer housing that was mostly built in the late 20th century in the southern half of the constituency. This is a mostly suburban area that has traditionally voted Conservative, but there are signs that with stabilisation of the population along with the general dislike of the Conservatives, Labour has an opportunity to capitalise here to enhance their vote, probably to the detriment of any potential Reform vote. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 12, 2024 10:28:22 GMT
Probably because a Labour gain is almost universally expected, whereas in Wellingborough the swing required is quite a bit more and therefore it’s not so easy to make such assumptions And because this seat is being effectively abolished sometime in the coming year. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 13, 2024 10:30:38 GMT
And because Wellingborough station has a fairly rapid direct service from from St. Pancras, whereas to get to Kingswood by rail you need to get to Temple Meads and make the onward journey by other means, so it's a longer excursion.
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Post by phil156 on Feb 15, 2024 6:26:05 GMT
This will count tonight result somewhere between 1-4AM
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 15, 2024 7:01:42 GMT
Polling stations open. Let the fun begin.
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