CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 2, 2024 13:54:59 GMT
Lordy, this byelection is getting so few mentions that I actually forgot it was taking place. To be fair to me, I have had a lot on my mind recently.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2024 14:06:48 GMT
I bloody haven't, it keeps nicking all my activists!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 2, 2024 14:19:36 GMT
I bloody haven't, it keeps nicking all my activists! Well, at least they are running an active campaign. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,175
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Post by r34t on Feb 4, 2024 7:37:13 GMT
I bloody haven't, it keeps nicking all my activists! Well, at least they are running an active campaign. Yes, lots happening & been up a few times myself. Tories out & about as well, must be bussing them in from Wellingborough 😉 |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 6, 2024 18:09:12 GMT
Will this be a game changer?
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Post by batman on Feb 6, 2024 19:05:03 GMT
no not at all, Labour will be first & the Tories second regardless
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,718
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 6, 2024 19:19:30 GMT
Will this be a game changer? President of the Reform Party backs Party's candidate - nothing to see here. |
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Post by Yaffles on Feb 6, 2024 19:22:09 GMT
no not at all, Labour will be first & the Tories second regardless I agree - I would be amazed if Labour didn’t win this by a good margin. Tories down to the postal vote/hardcore vote and not much else. I suppose the Green/Lib Dem/Reform will be interesting to those watching for general elections hints. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 6, 2024 20:55:22 GMT
Will this be a game changer? Yes, if it persuades some voters to abandon their game of Monopoly and play tiddlywinks instead |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 6, 2024 21:02:14 GMT
In other game changing news I hear that Caroline Lucas has endorsed the Green candidate
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 6, 2024 21:14:03 GMT
To be clear, I wasnt suggesting Reform would suddenly win now - but most of the voting public arent as up to speed on these things as we are, and so a "public and full-throated endorsement of Lowe by Farage" (given that most people wouldnt necessarily put 2 + 2 together viz a viz Farage's connection with Reform) would at the very least raise the profile of Lowe's candidacy to those loyal members of the Farage fan club and be much more likely to GTVO of those even considering voting for Reform.
Perhaps "game changer" wasnt the best phrase. Labour will clearly win, but was wondering more whether it could get them a 2nd place?
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Feb 6, 2024 21:17:11 GMT
To be clear, I wasnt suggesting Reform would suddenly win now - but most of the voting public arent as up to speed on these things as we are, and so a "public and full-throated endorsement of Lowe by Farage" (given that most people wouldnt necessarily put 2 + 2 together viz a viz Farage's connection with Reform) would at the very least raise the profile of Lowe's candidacy to those loyal members of the Farage fan club and be much more likely to GTVO of those even considering voting for Reform. Perhaps "game changer" wasnt the best phrase. Labour will clearly win, but was wondering more whether it could get them a 2nd place? I doubt that Reform will even save its deposit here. Also many PVs already been cast. |
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Post by batman on Feb 7, 2024 9:38:40 GMT
I'm convinced the Tories will get second & will be a long way ahead of Reform.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,175
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Post by r34t on Feb 7, 2024 9:52:17 GMT
I'm convinced the Tories will get second & will be a long way ahead of Reform. Agreed. This isn’t Wellingborough, Skidmore hasn’t tried as spectacularly as Bone to offend the electorate |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 7, 2024 10:09:32 GMT
I'm convinced the Tories will get second & will be a long way ahead of Reform. I may be proved very wrong, but I still think it quite possible that in 9 days time Reform will have got c.5% in both Kingswood and Wellingborough and the discussion here and elsewhere will be how on earth are they polling double figures in some opinion polls. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619 
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Post by ricmk on Feb 7, 2024 10:54:58 GMT
Certainly, if Reform can't do it in Wellingborough in these circumstances with a compromised Con candidate - a byelection they could have designed themselves - it's hard to see them as a major factor anywhere.
Which makes me think that's unlikely given the national polling - there is a market for what they are offering and Wellingborough should be fertile territory. I don't pretend to know Kingswood but this could be painful for them. I'm surprised others aren't making more of Richard Tice saying they wouldn't stand and then the swift U-Turn. Easy shots at them there.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,900
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 7, 2024 12:46:38 GMT
I'm surprised others aren't making more of Richard Tice saying they wouldn't stand and then the swift U-Turn. Easy shots at them there. On the other hand, taking shots at them risks them being perceived as a more serious force than they perhaps are - sometimes there is a case for just ignoring. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,904
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 7, 2024 16:06:04 GMT
Their predecessor did a much bigger u-turn weeks before the last GE, so the response of many would likely be "meh" in any case.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,907
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Post by YL on Feb 7, 2024 19:27:27 GMT
I'm convinced the Tories will get second & will be a long way ahead of Reform. I may be proved very wrong, but I still think it quite possible that in 9 days time Reform will have got c.5% in both Kingswood and Wellingborough and the discussion here and elsewhere will be how on earth are they polling double figures in some opinion polls. Let's say that we believe the higher opinion poll figures for Reform, around 11%. How well should they be doing here and in Wellingborough? My feeling is that Kingswood has middling potential for them, and Wellingborough rather better than that, especially given the Tory candidate selection and apparent issues with their campaign (though those may be exaggerated). So 10% or so here and around 15% or maybe even 20% in Wellingborough? |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 7, 2024 22:08:35 GMT
I'm convinced the Tories will get second & will be a long way ahead of Reform. Agreed. This isn’t Wellingborough, Skidmore hasn’t tried as spectacularly as Bone to offend the electorate Furthermore Reform UK's U-turn on not standing a candidate in this by-election will harm their performance significantly. |
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