YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Dec 30, 2023 11:16:42 GMT
As the new name might suggest, this can be thought of as a continuation of the former Dewsbury constituency with Batley replacing most of the areas outside Dewsbury proper previously included with that town. However this boundary change has a very striking political effect, which turned the constituency from a marginal (voting Labour in 2015 and 2017 but Conservative in 2010 and 2019) to what was expected to be usually safe Labour seat, though it might be vulnerable, probably not to the Conservatives, in exceptional circumstances. Such circumstances in fact transpired in the 2024 General Election, and it was won by Iqbal Mohamed, an Independent candidate whose campaign referred to international issues, especially Gaza, as well as the problems of this constituency.
Dewsbury and Batley are the heart of the Heavy Woollen District. The central part of West Yorkshire developed a speciality for making heavy wool products from recycled wool; these fabrics have the rather unpromising sounding names "shoddy" and "mungo", words which you will still see on old mill buildings in this area. The name Heavy Woollen District is well established, being used, for example, for local sporting leagues, and for a time there was a localist party active called the Heavy Woollen District Independents. It is not a local government area, with the areas in this constituency and some neighbouring ones sharing the Metropolitan Borough of Kirklees with the Huddersfield area but other parts of the District being in Leeds or Wakefield for local government purposes.
The Heavy Woollen District attracted considerable migration from the Indian subcontinent in the 20th century, and the area has become very polarised into Asian (mostly Muslim) and white dominated areas. Most of the Asian dominated areas are in this constituency, and it is 43.7% Muslim, the 8th most Muslim constituency in England and Wales. It is a young constituency, and has a working class population with low educational attainment; it is 15th in England and Wales for the proportion with no qualifications and 12th for the proportion who have never worked or are long-term unemployed.
The two towns are contiguous and it might be a little surprising that they have not been in the same constituency since 1918, Batley having been paired with Morley from 1918 to 1983 and since then with the "Spen" area. The general description of the constituency as a working class and heavily Asian area applies to most parts of it, though there are some less deprived pockets and the eastern and southern fringes of Dewsbury, especially the semi-detached area of Thornhill, are less Asian, though still quite working class for the most part. The most Muslim wards are Batley East and Dewsbury West, both well over 50%, with Dewsbury South and Batley West being a little below 50% and Dewsbury East the outlier at just below 20%. One area from the old Dewsbury constituency outside the town does remain here, the village of Flockton on the Wakefield to Huddersfield road and neighbouring areas in the north of Kirkburton ward; these are not the most middle class parts of that ward (the rest of which is in Ossett & Denby Dale) but still they are a little out of place.
Apart from the part of Kirkburton here, until 2024 all wards had mostly elected Labour councillors in recent years. There had been exceptions and in the Noughties they were less reliable, with various Dewsbury wards electing both Conservatives and Lib Dems; the whiter Dewsbury East also elected a BNP councillor in 2006. Dewsbury East has also been known to vote for the aforementioned (but now defunct) Heavy Woollen District Independents, who like many localist parties were essentially a UKIP offshoot. Although Labour had not lost it, Batley East has shown some striking recent volatility: following George Galloway's challenge in the 2021 Batley & Spen by-election it gave a high vote to a candidate from his Workers' Party in 2022, then it nearly voted Conservative in 2023 of all years, but then swung sharply back to Labour in a by-election later in 2023. However, a combination of unhappiness about Labour's stance on the war in Gaza and troubles in the local Labour Party saw a collapse in the 2024 Kirklees elections, with all wards except Dewsbury East electing Independent candidates.
For the 2024 election, the incumbent Conservative MP for Dewsbury, Mark Eastwood, made what, given the notional result here, was a sensible choice and followed the Denby Dale and Kirkburton areas to defend Ossett & Denby Dale, though in the end he lost there anyway, and the Labour MP who won that 2021 by-election in Batley & Spen, Kim Leadbeater, chose to stand in Spen Valley, so this was an open seat. That George Galloway by-election challenge gave a hint as to the most likely way Labour could find themselves in trouble here, and those 2024 local election results gave another. In the event Labour's vote fell dramatically, with Iqbal Mohamed easily defeating the new Labour candidate Heather Iqbal.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Lab 27241 (59.1%)
Con 13232 (28.7%)
Brexit Party 1565 (3.4%)
Lib Dem 1156 (2.5%)
Green 512 (1.1%)
Other 2395 (5.2%)
Lab majority 14009 (30.4%)
2024 result
Iqbal Mohamed (Ind) 15641 (41.1%)
Heather Iqbal (Lab) 8707 (22.9%)
Johnathan Thackray (Reform UK) 6152 (16.2%)
Lalit Suryawanshi (Con) 4182 (11.0%)
Simon Cope (Green) 2048 (5.4%)
John Rossington (Lib Dem) 1340 (3.5%)
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 30, 2023 15:46:56 GMT
2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 13.3% 484/575 Owner occupied 60.5% 388/575 Private rented 19.8% 215/575 Social rented 19.7% 158/575 White 51.2% 531/575 Black 0.8% 360/575 Asian 44.4% 17/575
Muslim 43.7% 8/575Managerial & professional 21.2% 541/575 Routine & Semi-routine 28.9% 109/575 Degree level 22.6% 540/575 No qualifications 27.8% 15/575 Students 8.6% 134/575 General Election 2019: DewsburyParty Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Mark Eastwood 26,179 46.4 +1.3Labour Paula Sherriff 24,618 43.7 -7.3 Liberal Democrats John Rossington 2,406 4.3 +2.2 Brexit Party Philip James 1,874 3.3 New Green Simon Cope 1,060 1.9 +0.1 Monster Raving Loony Sir Archibald Earl Eaton Stanton 252 0.4 New C Majority 1,561 2.7 Turnout 56,389 69.4 -0.1 Conservative gain from Labour Swing 4.3 Lab to C
Boundary ChangesDewsbury and Batley consists of 53.0% of Dewsbury 33.3% of Batley & Spen Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_500_Dewsbury%20and%20Batley_Portrait.pdf
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Post by Merseymike on May 4, 2024 22:47:04 GMT
There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 2:43:19 GMT
I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats.
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Post by swingometer on May 5, 2024 3:37:35 GMT
I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats. Too big a risk, especially at the moment |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 5:42:15 GMT
I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats. Too big a risk, especially at the moment Ethnic pandering also carries a risk- see Pendle, where almost all Labour councillors were Muslim and all resigned from the party en masse. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on May 5, 2024 8:39:58 GMT
There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate? At first it might appear the case but it doesn’t guarantee it and can backfire if the wrong candidate - they vote on issues generally - it didn’t work out too well in Bradford West in 2012… and in Rochdale I think it’s quite likely Ali would have lost even if he wasn’t disowned given the abuse he was getting at the start of the campaign (I don’t condone this of course) with his loyal party line position. The result in Dewsbury West is pretty interesting too - Tanisha Bramwell, a charity campaigner who runs a food bank, romped home, beating the (Muslim) Labour candidate (who was quite popular actually, and you can see she did much better than Pandor) by a four figure majority. Looking at her tweets she caught the mood of the whole ward - yes winning over the Asian areas by being on their side on Palestine but also everyone else by being what seems to be a very well known person in the area helping some of the poorest people in the community, there are many local news articles on her work. She previously stood in 2021. If she was to stand as an independent at the GE on a cost of living ticket I think she could do rather well. She seems the sort of person who deserves a O/MBE of some kind so watch this space. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 5, 2024 9:03:00 GMT
There is no Labour candidate for Dewsbury and Batley. I know Hugh Goulborn wants the seat - but given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate? At first it might appear the case but it doesn’t guarantee it and can backfire if the wrong candidate - they vote on issues generally - it didn’t work out too well in Bradford West in 2012… and in Rochdale I think it’s quite likely Ali would have lost even if he wasn’t disowned given the abuse he was getting at the start of the campaign (I don’t condone this of course) with his loyal party line position. The result in Dewsbury West is pretty interesting too - Tanisha Bramwell, a charity campaigner who runs a food bank, romped home, beating the (Muslim) Labour candidate (who was quite popular actually, and you can see she did much better than Pandor) by a four figure majority. Looking at her tweets she caught the mood of the whole ward - yes winning over the Asian areas by being on their side on Palestine but also everyone else by being what seems to be a very well known person in the area helping some of the poorest people in the community, there are many local news articles on her work. She previously stood in 2021. If she was to stand as an independent at the GE on a cost of living ticket I think she could do rather well. She seems the sort of person who deserves a O/MBE of some kind so watch this space. She is an excellent candidate. She works with Cllr Ammar Anwar who resigned because of Palestine. I am sure that local people, Asian and white voters, voted enthusiastically. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2024 10:25:43 GMT
I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats. Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering". |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 11:22:32 GMT
I expect it'd be healthier for the Labour Party in the long run if they refuse to stoop to ethnic pandering, even if it would be to their electoral benefit in some individual seats. Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering". Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat. Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?" This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence. |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on May 5, 2024 11:28:54 GMT
Picking a minority candidate for a significantly minority seat does not, in itself, amount to "ethnic pandering". Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat. Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?" This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence. And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 5, 2024 11:37:26 GMT
Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat. Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?" This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence. And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency. There are all sorts of reasons why you pick a certain sort of candidate in a specific constituency. A farmer in a rural constituency, ex-military where there's a big base, northerners in the North, working class candidates in working class areas. Understanding your local community is basic and if you don't like it then give up on constituency based FPTP representation. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 11:39:34 GMT
Picking a minority candidate because they happen to be the best-qualified candidate is certainly not pandering, regardless of the demographics of the seat. Merseymike's suggestion was, and I quote, "given the issues, surely the seat needs a Muslim candidate?" This is a suggestion that the candidate should be chosen under grounds of religion rather than of competence. And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency. If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either. Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one? |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on May 5, 2024 11:55:55 GMT
And there are plenty of competent candidates that happen to be of the Muslim faith that Labour could pick. Mike is just expressing a political reality that this is important to a lot of voters in this constituency. If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either. Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one? The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2024 12:10:47 GMT
If the political reality in question involves using religious discrimination in the selection process, that is not a good thing. Likewise, I expect many followers of Islam would prefer a male representative rather than a female one, but I would not suggest that Labour prioritize fielding male candidates in such constituencies either. Also- I cannot find statistics for the constituency as a whole, but I will note that the religious demographics of Dewsbury itself in the 2021 census were 46% Christian, 28.9% Muslim, 23.7% No Religion. If one were using religious discrimination in the selection process, surely that would imply selecting a Christian candidate, not a Muslim one? The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it? If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White? |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 12:18:37 GMT
The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it? If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power? |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on May 5, 2024 12:31:36 GMT
The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it? If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power? Bigoted?? There is nothing wrong with identifying with a candidate as a voter because they share the same religion as you. This is ridiculous |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on May 5, 2024 12:34:17 GMT
The seat is 43.7% Muslim, but even so the point is not that the most numerous demographic in any constituency should be that from which the MP is drawn, but that in this specific constituency, for the next general election, in the current political climate, it would do Labour well for the Labour candidate to be Muslim. There is no evidence that this would be the case for Christian candidates in predominately Christian areas. Got it? If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White? In the past some ethnic minority Labour candidates did probably do worse due to old prejudices when you look at the figures. These days I believe the consensus is that this has largely disappeared |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 12:45:36 GMT
If it is indeed true that Muslim voters are more likely to hold bigoted views than Christian voters are, and are broadly less willing to vote for a candidate of a different race/religion, then I wouldn't say it would be a good idea to pander to said bigotry for the sake of electoral success. Yes, if one's sole priority is as many MPs as possible, then that would be a way of doing so- but surely a party should hold some sort of principles and not willing to make any concession conceivable for the sake of power? Bigoted?? There is nothing wrong with identifying with a candidate as a voter because they share the same religion as you. This is ridiculous Surely being less willing to vote for a candidate on grounds of their race, religion, or other personal attributes, rather than on grounds of their ability and political views, is pretty much the definition of bigotry? I don't know how else you can see it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2024 12:52:06 GMT
If there was evidence that in a particular constituency, a large body of the electorate were open to voting Labour but would only vote for a white candidate, would you be openly advocating that Labour should avoid selecting a candidate from an ethnic minority for that seat? Let us say a black candidate who has grown up in that constituency and would like to be considered for the Labour nomination. Will you tell him that it would do Labour well for the candidate to be White? In the past some ethnic minority Labour candidates did probably do worse due to old prejudices when you look at the figures. These days I believe the consensus is that this has largely disappeared And if it hadn't, you would advocate pandering to these prejudices? |
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