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Post by carlton43 on Jan 2, 2024 12:25:20 GMT
It's fuck all to do with Christmas - I just have the time to post this now. I created these maps weeks ago. 750 is the number because as I said it seems to be the best number to allow normal sized towns like Watford and Hemel Hempstead and Stevenage and Harlow to stand alone and for normal areas of London like Hornchurch and Dagenham to do so Surely the thing that actually makes the difference is moving to 10% variance rather than 5% ? With 650 seats but a 10% variance you avoid almost all the cross-county seats (and you're not worried about crossing met boroughs as you've said). 750 happens to fit towns in Herts - but it happens not to work for others e.g. Bedford, Basingstoke, Crawley, Basildon, Chelmsford .... I suppose we all have matters that are close to imperatives in our structural approach to the design of constituencies. These may be based on a range of precepts and some of those will be less rational and necessary than others. I am concerned about feel, tone, historic lineage, homogeneity, traditional counties, single member, and equality of size to make equality of value to the vote. I am entirely unconcerned about regions, mets, unitaries, connectivity, exclaves, size, rivers, mountains, estuaries or roads and rail lines. My perfection would be to fix on a larger HOC (and I very much warm to 750) with constituencies drawn up by an independent commission without any interference at all from HOC, MPs, councils or the public. Fixed timetable, fixed implementation date, fixed start date. No hearings at all. Interim proposals published. Written suggestions, objections and amendments accepted. Decision made and published without reasons or apologies. Complete independence. I would advocate selecting a fixed size with no exceptions for islands or special situations. All constituencies to be, say 87,750 electors. Just make it fit. Precise rules to cover very difficult cases. The Commission to be sole arbiter of applying those precise rules. Resulting in very few constituencies not being 87,750 exactly. |
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Post by batman on Jan 2, 2024 13:02:10 GMT
There is quite a bit of merit in that, but I do strongly feel that the public needs to have a say. There are times when the Boundary Commissioners don't really understand an area at all and at such times it's important that members of the public have the chance to help them do so. Of course there are plenty of interventions which are based purely on party political considerations, and rather base parochial matters, but I would be loth to see the Commissioners have complete power. And I speak as the son of an Assistant Commissioner.
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Jan 2, 2024 13:22:05 GMT
Surely the thing that actually makes the difference is moving to 10% variance rather than 5% ? With 650 seats but a 10% variance you avoid almost all the cross-county seats (and you're not worried about crossing met boroughs as you've said). 750 happens to fit towns in Herts - but it happens not to work for others e.g. Bedford, Basingstoke, Crawley, Basildon, Chelmsford .... I suppose we all have matters that are close to imperatives in our structural approach to the design of constituencies. These may be based on a range of precepts and some of those will be less rational and necessary than others. I am concerned about feel, tone, historic lineage, homogeneity, traditional counties, single member, and equality of size to make equality of value to the vote. I am entirely unconcerned about regions, mets, unitaries, connectivity, exclaves, size, rivers, mountains, estuaries or roads and rail lines. My perfection would be to fix on a larger HOC (and I very much warm to 750) with constituencies drawn up by an independent commission without any interference at all from HOC, MPs, councils or the public. Fixed timetable, fixed implementation date, fixed start date. No hearings at all. Interim proposals published. Written suggestions, objections and amendments accepted. Decision made and published without reasons or apologies. Complete independence. I would advocate selecting a fixed size with no exceptions for islands or special situations. All constituencies to be, say 87,750 electors. Just make it fit. Precise rules to cover very difficult cases. The Commission to be sole arbiter of applying those precise rules. Resulting in very few constituencies not being 87,750 exactly. I've often thought it better to leave the precise number of seats as a question for the end of the process rather than the beginning. Certainly, you need a target (eg 650 or 750), but how many of us haven't drawn a map which looks optimal except for one seat being a handful under or over quota. If at the end you could flex the target number to say 651 or 749, it might result in markedly better maps on some places. However, that's very difficult to do if you want to have lots of public consultation. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 2, 2024 13:25:54 GMT
I presume that "South East 006" in Pete Whitehead's Sussex map is actually meant to be Lewes? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 2, 2024 13:27:55 GMT
I've often thought it better to leave the precise number of seats as a question for the end of the process rather than the beginning. Certainly, you need a target (eg 650 or 750), but how many of us haven't drawn a map which looks optimal except for one seat being a handful under or over quota. If at the end you could flex the target number to say 651 or 749, it might result in markedly better maps on some places. However, that's very difficult to do if you want to have lots of public consultation. That can work for smaller areas such as councils, but seems impractical for the whole country. If you tweak the numbers so area A works, you will probably just end up making area B not work. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 2, 2024 13:36:31 GMT
I can't be bothered to post a map, but it should be reconstructable from the names and electorates:
Sheffield Ecclesall 62134
Sheffield Hallam 68784
Sheffield Heeley 69235
Sheffield Attercliffe 67320
Sheffield Hillsborough 58501
Sheffield Brightside & Central 57866
Penistone & Ecclesfield 66107
Barnsley Central 65194
Barnsley East 60501
Wentworth & Dearne 60006
Rotherham 62590
Rother Valley 65842
Conisbrough & Wickersley 65130
Doncaster North 60301
Doncaster Central 58247
Doncaster East 59634
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 2, 2024 13:42:54 GMT
I suppose we all have matters that are close to imperatives in our structural approach to the design of constituencies. These may be based on a range of precepts and some of those will be less rational and necessary than others. I am concerned about feel, tone, historic lineage, homogeneity, traditional counties, single member, and equality of size to make equality of value to the vote. I am entirely unconcerned about regions, mets, unitaries, connectivity, exclaves, size, rivers, mountains, estuaries or roads and rail lines. My perfection would be to fix on a larger HOC (and I very much warm to 750) with constituencies drawn up by an independent commission without any interference at all from HOC, MPs, councils or the public. Fixed timetable, fixed implementation date, fixed start date. No hearings at all. Interim proposals published. Written suggestions, objections and amendments accepted. Decision made and published without reasons or apologies. Complete independence. I would advocate selecting a fixed size with no exceptions for islands or special situations. All constituencies to be, say 87,750 electors. Just make it fit. Precise rules to cover very difficult cases. The Commission to be sole arbiter of applying those precise rules. Resulting in very few constituencies not being 87,750 exactly. I've often thought it better to leave the precise number of seats as a question for the end of the process rather than the beginning. Certainly, you need a target (eg 650 or 750), but how many of us haven't drawn a map which looks optimal except for one seat being a handful under or over quota. If at the end you could flex the target number to say 651 or 749, it might result in markedly better maps on some places. However, that's very difficult to do if you want to have lots of public consultation. That is a good point and an interesting one I had not considered. It has considerable merit. As with so much in Britain, it is the absolute menace of public consultation and interference that causes the time wasting, expense, delay and duff results. The public should never be consulted on anything because in essence the best they provide is half-baked regurgitation of media drivel or personal obsessions of the few. It is never 'public consultation' but more intrusive obfuscation and delay from a very small minority of 'self-entitled' usual suspects of the sort found on our own benches here. They are always best totally ignored. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2024 13:56:16 GMT
Surely the thing that actually makes the difference is moving to 10% variance rather than 5% ? With 650 seats but a 10% variance you avoid almost all the cross-county seats (and you're not worried about crossing met boroughs as you've said). 750 happens to fit towns in Herts - but it happens not to work for others e.g. Bedford, Basingstoke, Crawley, Basildon, Chelmsford .... I suppose we all have matters that are close to imperatives in our structural approach to the design of constituencies. These may be based on a range of precepts and some of those will be less rational and necessary than others. I am concerned about feel, tone, historic lineage, homogeneity, traditional counties, single member, and equality of size to make equality of value to the vote. I am entirely unconcerned about regions, mets, unitaries, connectivity, exclaves, size, rivers, mountains, estuaries or roads and rail lines. My perfection would be to fix on a larger HOC (and I very much warm to 750) with constituencies drawn up by an independent commission without any interference at all from HOC, MPs, councils or the public. Fixed timetable, fixed implementation date, fixed start date. No hearings at all. Interim proposals published. Written suggestions, objections and amendments accepted. Decision made and published without reasons or apologies. Complete independence. I would advocate selecting a fixed size with no exceptions for islands or special situations. All constituencies to be, say 87,750 electors. Just make it fit. Precise rules to cover very difficult cases. The Commission to be sole arbiter of applying those precise rules. Resulting in very few constituencies not being 87,750 exactly. 750 constituencies with 87,750 electors each would be a national electorate of 65.8 million, which implies a total population of about 85 million. Are you advocating mass immigration of a further 15 or 20 million to make up the numbers? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 2, 2024 14:10:36 GMT
I suppose we all have matters that are close to imperatives in our structural approach to the design of constituencies. These may be based on a range of precepts and some of those will be less rational and necessary than others. I am concerned about feel, tone, historic lineage, homogeneity, traditional counties, single member, and equality of size to make equality of value to the vote. I am entirely unconcerned about regions, mets, unitaries, connectivity, exclaves, size, rivers, mountains, estuaries or roads and rail lines. My perfection would be to fix on a larger HOC (and I very much warm to 750) with constituencies drawn up by an independent commission without any interference at all from HOC, MPs, councils or the public. Fixed timetable, fixed implementation date, fixed start date. No hearings at all. Interim proposals published. Written suggestions, objections and amendments accepted. Decision made and published without reasons or apologies. Complete independence. I would advocate selecting a fixed size with no exceptions for islands or special situations. All constituencies to be, say 87,750 electors. Just make it fit. Precise rules to cover very difficult cases. The Commission to be sole arbiter of applying those precise rules. Resulting in very few constituencies not being 87,750 exactly. 750 constituencies with 87,750 electors each would be a national electorate of 65.8 million, which implies a total population of about 85 million. Are you advocating mass immigration of a further 15 or 20 million to make up the numbers? I chose 87,750 electors at random as an exemplar, and I am posting on a thread predicated on 750 constituencies, so I did at the time consider working out a 'better' number, but life is too short to guess what ravages mass immigration over 10 more years or a successful series of covid infections might do to the totals and left my figure because it is entirely immaterial to the argument. Of course, long association with this Forum made me aware of this inevitable post and I shortlisted 5-Usual Suspects in my head from the 'Nitpickers United' faction . You were at the head of that list. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 2, 2024 15:31:59 GMT
I can't be bothered to post a map, but it should be reconstructable from the names and electorates: Sheffield Ecclesall 62134 Sheffield Hallam 68784 Sheffield Heeley 69235 Sheffield Attercliffe 67320 Sheffield Hillsborough 58501 Sheffield Brightside & Central 57866 Penistone & Ecclesfield 66107 Barnsley Central 65194 Barnsley East 60501 Wentworth & Dearne 60006 Rotherham 62590 Rother Valley 65842 Conisbrough & Wickersley 65130 Doncaster North 60301 Doncaster Central 58247 Doncaster East 59634 My home seat of Heeley has 11,000 more electors than Doncaster Central and I don't feel that to be acceptable. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 2, 2024 15:52:35 GMT
Surely the thing that actually makes the difference is moving to 10% variance rather than 5% ? With 650 seats but a 10% variance you avoid almost all the cross-county seats (and you're not worried about crossing met boroughs as you've said). 750 happens to fit towns in Herts - but it happens not to work for others e.g. Bedford, Basingstoke, Crawley, Basildon, Chelmsford .... It works some places better than others of course (and I've tried many other different sets of numbers which work less well in most places). Bedfordshire generally was a little awkward and as you say the 10% threshold helps. I'm actually happy with Basildon as although not all of the town is in a single seat, most of it is and it's avoided the mess we've had really since 1983 in that area. Basingstoke's porblem is mainly to do with the way the wards are drawn there. Though with Basildon it's frequently been possible to fit the entire town (or almost all of it) in a single seat, it's just that the geography of the rest of the county means that you have to chop up somewhere else (probably Brentwood) to do so. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 2, 2024 19:17:07 GMT
Using the figures for the other regions, I calculate this would make Wales have 37 seats, so here's a 37 seat Wales
1 Monmouthshire 64838 Yes
2 Newport West 63847 Yes
3 Newport East 65070 Yes
4 Cardiff West 63550 Yes
5 Cardiff South and Penarth 62114 Yes
6 Cardiff East 62898 Yes
7 Cardiff North 60241 Yes
8 Vale of Glamorgan and Porthcawl 61067 Yes
9 Barry 61349 Yes
10 Rhondda South and Caerphilly 64277 Yes
11 Rhondda North 62592 Yes
12 Rhondda Central 60958 Yes
13 Bridgend and Brynna 63552 Yes
14 Ystrad Mynach 65970 Yes
15 Torfaen 66016 Yes
16 Ebbw Vale and Abertillery 64699 Yes
17 Merthyr Tydfil 64710 Yes
18 Port Talbot 64992 Yes
19 Neath 65339 Yes
20 Swansea Valley 64300 Yes
21 Gower 63747 Yes
22 City of Swansea 62108 Yes
23 Llanelli and Ammanford 63891 Yes
24 Carmarthenshire East 61786 Yes
25 Yr Preselis ac Sir Gar 60283 Yes
26 Pembrokeshire Coast 60705 Yes
27 Ceredigion and the Cambrians 61033 Yes
28 The Brecon Beacons 62012 Yes
29 Yr Eryri and Montgomeryshire 62033 Yes
30 Wrexham 63882 Yes
31 Flintshire North and Rhyl 62705 Yes
32 Flintshire South 63389 Yes
33 Mold and Shotton 66034 Yes
34 Clwyd North 61730 Yes
35 Aberconwy 62483 Yes
36 Caernarfonshire 60062 Yes
Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 2, 2024 20:17:27 GMT
Using the figures for the other regions, I calculate this would make Wales have 37 seats, so here's a 37 seat Wales 1 Monmouthshire 64838 Yes 2 Newport West 63847 Yes 3 Newport East 65070 Yes 4 Cardiff West 63550 Yes 5 Cardiff South and Penarth 62114 Yes 6 Cardiff East 62898 Yes 7 Cardiff North 60241 Yes 8 Vale of Glamorgan and Porthcawl 61067 Yes 9 Barry 61349 Yes 10 Rhondda South and Caerphilly 64277 Yes 11 Rhondda North 62592 Yes 12 Rhondda Central 60958 Yes 13 Bridgend and Brynna 63552 Yes 14 Ystrad Mynach 65970 Yes 15 Torfaen 66016 Yes 16 Ebbw Vale and Abertillery 64699 Yes 17 Merthyr Tydfil 64710 Yes 18 Port Talbot 64992 Yes 19 Neath 65339 Yes 20 Swansea Valley 64300 Yes 21 Gower 63747 Yes 22 City of Swansea 62108 Yes 23 Llanelli and Ammanford 63891 Yes 24 Carmarthenshire East 61786 Yes 25 Yr Preselis ac Sir Gar 60283 Yes 26 Pembrokeshire Coast 60705 Yes 27 Ceredigion and the Cambrians 61033 Yes 28 The Brecon Beacons 62012 Yes 29 Yr Eryri and Montgomeryshire 62033 Yes 30 Wrexham 63882 Yes 31 Flintshire North and Rhyl 62705 Yes 32 Flintshire South 63389 Yes 33 Mold and Shotton 66034 Yes 34 Clwyd North 61730 Yes 35 Aberconwy 62483 Yes 36 Caernarfonshire 60062 Yes Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn   Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 4, 2024 19:02:25 GMT
I think its fair to day Cornwall is a case where 650 seats works better than 750 (ie 6 seats for the county rather than 7).. or maybe I just didn'd do a very good job of it. Devon was awkward in parts too (Torbay and Exeter) but Dorset works very nicely    Edit: Just noticed Melcombe Regis is missing (ironic since it is the most visited ward in Dorset by me) so the South Dorset figure should be 66,546 - still in quota thankfully |
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Post by batman on Jan 4, 2024 19:46:58 GMT
This is typically scholarly stuff & the only shame is that none of this is at all likely to happen!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 4, 2024 19:53:04 GMT
This is typically scholarly stuff & the only shame is that none of this is at all likely to happen! It will when johnloony becomes dictator of the world and appoints me as the Independent Commission along the lines described by carlton43 above (although even then I would take representations from some members of this forum) |
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Post by batman on Jan 4, 2024 20:43:32 GMT
I did say "likely" Pete
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 4, 2024 20:52:25 GMT
Using the figures for the other regions, I calculate this would make Wales have 37 seats, so here's a 37 seat Wales 1 Monmouthshire 64838 Yes 2 Newport West 63847 Yes 3 Newport East 65070 Yes 4 Cardiff West 63550 Yes 5 Cardiff South and Penarth 62114 Yes 6 Cardiff East 62898 Yes 7 Cardiff North 60241 Yes 8 Vale of Glamorgan and Porthcawl 61067 Yes 9 Barry 61349 Yes 10 Rhondda South and Caerphilly 64277 Yes 11 Rhondda North 62592 Yes 12 Rhondda Central 60958 Yes 13 Bridgend and Brynna 63552 Yes 14 Ystrad Mynach 65970 Yes 15 Torfaen 66016 Yes 16 Ebbw Vale and Abertillery 64699 Yes 17 Merthyr Tydfil 64710 Yes 18 Port Talbot 64992 Yes 19 Neath 65339 Yes 20 Swansea Valley 64300 Yes 21 Gower 63747 Yes 22 City of Swansea 62108 Yes 23 Llanelli and Ammanford 63891 Yes 24 Carmarthenshire East 61786 Yes 25 Yr Preselis ac Sir Gar 60283 Yes 26 Pembrokeshire Coast 60705 Yes 27 Ceredigion and the Cambrians 61033 Yes 28 The Brecon Beacons 62012 Yes 29 Yr Eryri and Montgomeryshire 62033 Yes 30 Wrexham 63882 Yes 31 Flintshire North and Rhyl 62705 Yes 32 Flintshire South 63389 Yes 33 Mold and Shotton 66034 Yes 34 Clwyd North 61730 Yes 35 Aberconwy 62483 Yes 36 Caernarfonshire 60062 Yes Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn Harrowing that *even* with *750* seats Wales still loses 3 seats overall! |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 4, 2024 20:54:47 GMT
Number 37 being of course Ynys Môn Harrowing that *even* with *750* seats Wales still loses 3 seats overall! To me the only harrowing thing about that is the way it demonstrates just how over-represented Wales has recently been in the House of Commons! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2024 19:05:27 GMT
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