Post by Robert Waller on Dec 26, 2023 13:11:34 GMT
Due to population growth since the last boundary changes, five of Berkshire’s eight constituencies were above the permitted range of electorate when the Commission started its latest review. It has therefore been granted nine seats (or very nearly, as one, Windsor, now crosses the county boundary to include a small portion of Surrey). There are major changes affecting most of the seats, but there is no doubt what the extra division is: Earley and Woodley. The South East region as a whole gains seven constituencies net, and Earley & Woodley is one of eight ‘new’ ones, in the sense that it contains the majority of no previous constituency.* Rather it is composed of 35.8% of Wokingham, 32.6% of Reading East, 11.5% of Reading West, and 8.8% of Maidenhead. Earley was previously in the Wokingham seat, Woodley awkwardly split between Reading East (its southern section) and Maidenhead (its northern).
It is forgivable if non-locals have never heard of Earley and Woodley. Not only has neither community ever before featured in the name of a Westminster seat, but before the local government reforms of the 1960s neither was even an Urban District, never mind a Municipal Borough, even when hundreds of these had their own councils: 315 Non-County Boroughs in England and Wales (never mind the 85 County Boroughs) and 563 urban districts. Rather they were mere parishes within Wokingham Rural District. Yet they are both substantial communities, if not deeply historic ones. Woodley adds up to around 22,800 electors, spreads across four wards of Wokingham unitary authority – Coronation (its north-eastern quadrant), Loddon (east), Bulmershe & Whitegates (approximately the geographical centre and west) and South Lake (SW), around its artificial lake (created in 1818 from a medieval fish pond). Earley to the south across the A3290) covers three wards: Maiden Erlegh (north, but including the railway station and The Parade shopping centre), Hawkeden (SE) and Hillside (SW) – these latter two approximately cover the large neighbourhood usually named Lower Earley - with around 17,700 on the roll. The two between them form a significant built up bloc east and south east of Reading with a population of well over 50,000.
The predominant tone is of modern private housing estates. Woodley, for example had a population of under 1,000 in 1930, 6,000 in 1950 and 12,000 in 1960, then doubled again in the 1960s to 24,000 in 1970. Earley had 11,000 residents in 1974 and more than doubled by 2002. Both have continued to grow with further developments in the 21st century. A study of the street plans, for example the apparently endless curling cul-de-sacs of Lower Earley, reveal their essentially planned and recent nature, rather like a New Town without the state direction.
There are other elements included in the new constituency besides Woodley and Earley. Sonning, north of Woodley, and situated by the Thames, was in Maidenhead, as was the Coronation ward part of Woodley. Shinfield with its two wards lies to the west of Earley and was likewise in Wokingham. Finally there are two wards of the borough of Reading, named Church and Whitley (though both are essentially in the Whitley/Whitley Wood suburb; just over half of this territory was previously in Reading West and part was in Reading East). One odd feature of the way the boundaries have been redrawn is that Reading University main campus will continue to be split between parliamentary constituencies as its Whiteknights site is divided between Maiden Erlegh ward in Earley and Redlands ward, which will now be in the new Reading Central seat.
Adding up all the votes cast within the new Earley & Woodley in the May 2023 unitary authority elections the Conservatives received the most, although only an uninspiring 38.4%, the Liberal Democrats took 26.8% and Labour 22.2%. Within the Wokingham council area, this three-party split is apparent in the individual ward results. In 2023 the Conservatives won Sonning and three of the four Woodley wards: Coronation very easily, South Lake fairly closely ahead of the LDs, and Loddon narrowly from Labour. It was Labour who took the fourth Woodley ward, Bulmershe & Whitegates, by exactly 100 votes on his occasion – they have won five of the last six contests in this ward. It is somewhat downmarket of the Woodley average, for example in the Howth Way/Chequers Drive neighbourhood near Bulmershe School, and extend all the way to the border with East Reading. Generally Woodley becomes higher up the scale of socio-economic status the further one moves out towards rural Berkshire in the Sonning direction, as in Coronation ward. Moving to Earley, it was the Liberal Democrats who won all three wards in 2023, all being traditionally LD/Con marginals, although the Tories have not won Hawkedon since 2015. The Lib Dems also succeeded in Shinfield South, though Labour won Shinfield North for the first time ever. Finally, in Reading, Labour won both Church and Whitley very easily, taking 61% in each in May 2023.
As well as being less politically homogeneous than it may look on a map, Earley & Woodley is socially mixed in ways that may surprise some non-locals. For a start, the new constituency had only 69.5% White residents at the time of the 2021 census, and over 19% Asian and 4,5% Black. 36% in Earley MSOA were Asian, and in Lower Earley North 24% and Lower Earley South 22%. One product of Earley, who grew up there with a Pakistani father and Welsh mother, was Matthew Syed: Commonwealth Games gold medallist for table tennis, sports journalist of the year on multiple occasions (writing mainly for The Times), charity founder, educated at Maiden Erlegh School and Balliol College Oxford (1st, PPE), polymath and sharer of Radio 4’s afternoon ‘brain spot’ with Laurie Taylor – and Labour parliamentary candidate for Wokingham (2001). There is also a higher than average Black population within the bounds of Earley & Woodley, though this resides chiefly in the Whitley section of Reading (around 9% Black).
It might also be expected that the overall owner occupation rate might be higher than 71.5%, given the serried ranks (or rather whorls) of private housing estates in Woodley and especially Earley – but there are pockets of social housing, centred on Drovers Way, in Woodley South (24%), and especially in the Reading section, as Whitley was historically a council estate and both wards are still around 30% social rented. There is also housing for private rent both in Reading and in Lower Earley South. Overall the occupational class figures are well into a non-manual sector predominance, but the professional and managerial figure ranges from 52% in Woodley East and 48% in Lower Earley South down to 18% in Leighton Park (roughly Church ward), and 24% in Whitley Wood the lowest status of the Reading MSOAs included in the seat. In Leighton Park that prof/man number is depressed by the 39% of residents who are full time students, and the Reading University element split between Reading and Wokingham borough is confirmed by 25% students in Lower Earley North, mainly because the section of the campus within Maiden Erlegh ward is included – its OA has 91% in full time study (at least allegedly), as might be expected. Finally, the levels of education to level 4 (degree) hover around 50% everywhere except for the social housing areas - Woodley South and the two Reading wards – and the household deprivation figures similarly are relatively very low except for those same sections of the constituency.
The Conservatives must start favourites in the inaugural general election contest in Earley & Woodley, even in the light of abysmal opinion polls and parliamentary byelection results through the run-up period. Pauline Jorgensen has been selected, a borough councillor for Earley Hillside (indeed the most recent Tory to win in that ward, in 2021). Her path to Westminster is far from without stones. The notional results calculated by Pete Whitehead for a hypothetical 2019 contest her has the Tories with less than an overall majority share (48%) even then, and this is likely to slump substantially. On the other hand the opposition is split, with Labour strong in the Reading section and the Liberal Democrats in Earley, for example. That 38/27/22 Con-LD-Lab split in the May 2023 local elections is worth repeating: will the opposition to the incumbent government, and putative incumbent party in the constituency, coalesce around one opponent? Earley & Woodley contains a variety of districts which between them add to form a mosaic of modern England, and its disparate characteristics will generate a contest well worth watching at some point in 2024.
*The seven other ‘new’ seats in South East England are Bicester & Woodstock, Buckingham & Bletchley, East Grinstead & Uckfield, Godalming & Ash, Hamble Valley, Isle of Wight West and Weald of Kent. The one technically abolished is Meon Valley.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 14.3% 459/575
Owner occupied 71.5% 138/575
Private rented 16.1% 382/575
Social rented 12.4% 415/575
White 69.5% 467/575
Black 4.5% 143/575
Asian 19.6% 63/575
Managerial & professional 40.2% 108/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.9% 463/575
Degree level 40.5% 107/575
No qualifications 13.6% 487/575
Students 10.3% 90/575
Boundary Changes
Earley & Woodley consists of
35.8% of Wokingham
32.6% of Reading East
11.5% of Reading West
8.8% of Maidenhead
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_307_Earley%20and%20Woodley_Portrait.pdf
2019 notional results (Rallings & Thrasher)
It is forgivable if non-locals have never heard of Earley and Woodley. Not only has neither community ever before featured in the name of a Westminster seat, but before the local government reforms of the 1960s neither was even an Urban District, never mind a Municipal Borough, even when hundreds of these had their own councils: 315 Non-County Boroughs in England and Wales (never mind the 85 County Boroughs) and 563 urban districts. Rather they were mere parishes within Wokingham Rural District. Yet they are both substantial communities, if not deeply historic ones. Woodley adds up to around 22,800 electors, spreads across four wards of Wokingham unitary authority – Coronation (its north-eastern quadrant), Loddon (east), Bulmershe & Whitegates (approximately the geographical centre and west) and South Lake (SW), around its artificial lake (created in 1818 from a medieval fish pond). Earley to the south across the A3290) covers three wards: Maiden Erlegh (north, but including the railway station and The Parade shopping centre), Hawkeden (SE) and Hillside (SW) – these latter two approximately cover the large neighbourhood usually named Lower Earley - with around 17,700 on the roll. The two between them form a significant built up bloc east and south east of Reading with a population of well over 50,000.
The predominant tone is of modern private housing estates. Woodley, for example had a population of under 1,000 in 1930, 6,000 in 1950 and 12,000 in 1960, then doubled again in the 1960s to 24,000 in 1970. Earley had 11,000 residents in 1974 and more than doubled by 2002. Both have continued to grow with further developments in the 21st century. A study of the street plans, for example the apparently endless curling cul-de-sacs of Lower Earley, reveal their essentially planned and recent nature, rather like a New Town without the state direction.
There are other elements included in the new constituency besides Woodley and Earley. Sonning, north of Woodley, and situated by the Thames, was in Maidenhead, as was the Coronation ward part of Woodley. Shinfield with its two wards lies to the west of Earley and was likewise in Wokingham. Finally there are two wards of the borough of Reading, named Church and Whitley (though both are essentially in the Whitley/Whitley Wood suburb; just over half of this territory was previously in Reading West and part was in Reading East). One odd feature of the way the boundaries have been redrawn is that Reading University main campus will continue to be split between parliamentary constituencies as its Whiteknights site is divided between Maiden Erlegh ward in Earley and Redlands ward, which will now be in the new Reading Central seat.
Adding up all the votes cast within the new Earley & Woodley in the May 2023 unitary authority elections the Conservatives received the most, although only an uninspiring 38.4%, the Liberal Democrats took 26.8% and Labour 22.2%. Within the Wokingham council area, this three-party split is apparent in the individual ward results. In 2023 the Conservatives won Sonning and three of the four Woodley wards: Coronation very easily, South Lake fairly closely ahead of the LDs, and Loddon narrowly from Labour. It was Labour who took the fourth Woodley ward, Bulmershe & Whitegates, by exactly 100 votes on his occasion – they have won five of the last six contests in this ward. It is somewhat downmarket of the Woodley average, for example in the Howth Way/Chequers Drive neighbourhood near Bulmershe School, and extend all the way to the border with East Reading. Generally Woodley becomes higher up the scale of socio-economic status the further one moves out towards rural Berkshire in the Sonning direction, as in Coronation ward. Moving to Earley, it was the Liberal Democrats who won all three wards in 2023, all being traditionally LD/Con marginals, although the Tories have not won Hawkedon since 2015. The Lib Dems also succeeded in Shinfield South, though Labour won Shinfield North for the first time ever. Finally, in Reading, Labour won both Church and Whitley very easily, taking 61% in each in May 2023.
As well as being less politically homogeneous than it may look on a map, Earley & Woodley is socially mixed in ways that may surprise some non-locals. For a start, the new constituency had only 69.5% White residents at the time of the 2021 census, and over 19% Asian and 4,5% Black. 36% in Earley MSOA were Asian, and in Lower Earley North 24% and Lower Earley South 22%. One product of Earley, who grew up there with a Pakistani father and Welsh mother, was Matthew Syed: Commonwealth Games gold medallist for table tennis, sports journalist of the year on multiple occasions (writing mainly for The Times), charity founder, educated at Maiden Erlegh School and Balliol College Oxford (1st, PPE), polymath and sharer of Radio 4’s afternoon ‘brain spot’ with Laurie Taylor – and Labour parliamentary candidate for Wokingham (2001). There is also a higher than average Black population within the bounds of Earley & Woodley, though this resides chiefly in the Whitley section of Reading (around 9% Black).
It might also be expected that the overall owner occupation rate might be higher than 71.5%, given the serried ranks (or rather whorls) of private housing estates in Woodley and especially Earley – but there are pockets of social housing, centred on Drovers Way, in Woodley South (24%), and especially in the Reading section, as Whitley was historically a council estate and both wards are still around 30% social rented. There is also housing for private rent both in Reading and in Lower Earley South. Overall the occupational class figures are well into a non-manual sector predominance, but the professional and managerial figure ranges from 52% in Woodley East and 48% in Lower Earley South down to 18% in Leighton Park (roughly Church ward), and 24% in Whitley Wood the lowest status of the Reading MSOAs included in the seat. In Leighton Park that prof/man number is depressed by the 39% of residents who are full time students, and the Reading University element split between Reading and Wokingham borough is confirmed by 25% students in Lower Earley North, mainly because the section of the campus within Maiden Erlegh ward is included – its OA has 91% in full time study (at least allegedly), as might be expected. Finally, the levels of education to level 4 (degree) hover around 50% everywhere except for the social housing areas - Woodley South and the two Reading wards – and the household deprivation figures similarly are relatively very low except for those same sections of the constituency.
The Conservatives must start favourites in the inaugural general election contest in Earley & Woodley, even in the light of abysmal opinion polls and parliamentary byelection results through the run-up period. Pauline Jorgensen has been selected, a borough councillor for Earley Hillside (indeed the most recent Tory to win in that ward, in 2021). Her path to Westminster is far from without stones. The notional results calculated by Pete Whitehead for a hypothetical 2019 contest her has the Tories with less than an overall majority share (48%) even then, and this is likely to slump substantially. On the other hand the opposition is split, with Labour strong in the Reading section and the Liberal Democrats in Earley, for example. That 38/27/22 Con-LD-Lab split in the May 2023 local elections is worth repeating: will the opposition to the incumbent government, and putative incumbent party in the constituency, coalesce around one opponent? Earley & Woodley contains a variety of districts which between them add to form a mosaic of modern England, and its disparate characteristics will generate a contest well worth watching at some point in 2024.
*The seven other ‘new’ seats in South East England are Bicester & Woodstock, Buckingham & Bletchley, East Grinstead & Uckfield, Godalming & Ash, Hamble Valley, Isle of Wight West and Weald of Kent. The one technically abolished is Meon Valley.
2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 14.3% 459/575
Owner occupied 71.5% 138/575
Private rented 16.1% 382/575
Social rented 12.4% 415/575
White 69.5% 467/575
Black 4.5% 143/575
Asian 19.6% 63/575
Managerial & professional 40.2% 108/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.9% 463/575
Degree level 40.5% 107/575
No qualifications 13.6% 487/575
Students 10.3% 90/575
Boundary Changes
Earley & Woodley consists of
35.8% of Wokingham
32.6% of Reading East
11.5% of Reading West
8.8% of Maidenhead
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_307_Earley%20and%20Woodley_Portrait.pdf
2019 notional results (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 24922 | 48.8% |
| Lab | 13629 | 26.7% |
| LD | 11147 | 21.8% |
| Grn | 1134 | 2.2% |
| BxP | 278 | 0.5% |
| Majority | 11293 | 22.1% |
