Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2023 17:24:45 GMT
There is a longstanding debate around the precise definition and geographical extent of the region known as the Black Country – the dismal area of former heavy industry to the West of Birmingham. It is generally reckoned that Wolverhampton is not truly part of the Black Country, but this constituency shows why this is debatable. The mainstay of this seat since its creation nearly fifty years ago has been the town of Bilston – a classic Black Country town, developed at the height of the industrial revolution as a centre of coal mining and steelworks.
Bilston has formed the core of a constituency since 1885 and from then until 1974, though the name was changed from time to time (it was Wolverhampton South before 1918, then Wolverhampton Bilston and finally plain Bilston after 1950), the boundaries remained virtually the same, including the towns of Coseley and Sedgley as well as Bilston itself.
Bilston was a safe Labour seat since 1945 although the final contest in 1970 was close as Enoch Powell’s influence came to bear.
Bilston was transformed into Wolverhampton South East in 1974, consequent upon the reorganisation of local government in the region in the 1960s. Most of Coseley and Sedgeley had moved into an enlarged Dudley County borough and thus joined constituencies formed of that borough. Bilston, together with smaller parts of Coseley and Sedgeley had joined Wolverhampton so Wolverhampton South East was formed of these areas plus some wards from Wolverhampton proper – Blakenhall and Parkfield from Wolverhampton SW and Eastfield from NE (the latter two wards roughly corresponding to the area now covered by East Park and part of Ettingshall ward). This also proved to be a safe Labour seat until 2019 when in line with many neighbouring seats there was a large swing to the Conservatives which brought them close to victory.
From 2010 the boundaries of the constituency had been extended to include the Dudley ward of Coseley East (which actually covers most of the Dudley section of Coseley – there is no ‘Coseley West’ ward). Coseley East differed somewhat from the Wolverhampton wards in being heavily white in comparison, but it did not differ much politically, at least in local elections. This is a safe Labour ward – one of only three Labour won in Dudley in 2021 and the Conservatives have never come all that close to winning, although UKIP did win in 2014 and the BNP had done well in the early years of the century. In the general election of 2019 though, the Conservatives carried the ward by more than two to one, mirroring the result in neighbouring Dudley North from whence this ward had come and where it now returns. The removal of this ward alone would add a couple of thousand to Labour’s 2019 majority but it is offset by the removal of Blakenhall. This largely inner-city ward to the South of Wolverhampton is majority Asian and over 40% Sikh – the highest figure in the country. This remains an overwhelmingly Labour voting ward at all levels and therefore the removal of Blakenhall and Coseley East more or less balance each other out, demographically and politically.
The wards which remain are all fairly similar in their demographic make up. All have a large council estate presence, all have significant black and (especially) Asian populations (Ettingshall is the most ‘non-white’ ward now following the departure of Blakenhall). All are thoroughly working class with low numbers of graduates and a high proportion of those with no qualifications. There is some inner city terrain in East Park and Ettingshall wards which both border the inner ring road of Wolverhampton and include the ubiquitous inner Wolverhampton mixture of industrial wasteland, Victorian terraces and inter-war council estates. East Park includes more modern council housing out in Moseley and further out still, Portobello is a moderately respectable suburban area. This has enabled the Conservatives to win in East Park in the exceptional year of 2008 and they were not far behind in the general election, whereas Labour carried Ettingshall easily.
The Conservatives were ahead then in Spring Vale – a somewhat amorphous ward, covering areas like Woodcross and Lanesfield which were historically in Coseley but may equally look to Bilston or Wolverhampton – a mixture of inter-war and post-war housing, owner occupied and council. Like Coseley East, the Conservatives have never won that ward at the local level, and it was in fact a Lib Dem held ward for many decades before they first lost a seat to UKIP in 2014 and subsequently Labour took control of the ward. Clearly the strong UKIP vote here, as in Coseley East, pointed to the strong potential for the Conservatives to do well in an election fought on the issue of Brexit.
The two Bilston wards also voted Conservative narrowly in 2019 – in the case of Bilston North this was not a wholly unique occurrence as the Conservatives have on occasion won the seat in good local election years. Bilston town could be said to include the southern half of Ettingshall ward so overall Bilston itself may have produced a very small Labour lead against a large lead in the inner parts of Wolverhampton and a large Conservative lead in Coseley (including Spring Vale), all adding up to a small Labour lead overall. As we have seen the removal of Coseley East and Blakenhall wards cancel each other out, leaving Labour still ahead by around 1,000 votes in the five Wolverhampton wards.
The replacement for the departed wards comes in the form of three wards from Walsall and should dispel any doubts about the Black Country character of this seat.
The two wards covering the town of Darlaston come from Walsall South – like Wolverhampton South East, a rare Black Country seat which Labour held in 2019. But that victory was enabled by a massive lead in the heavily Asian wards of inner Walsall and the Conservatives were actually ahead in both Darlaston wards. This is as extraordinary as any result in that election. Darlaston is grimmer than Bilston – a ghost town built on coal mines whose industry all closed in the 1980s. The Conservatives have never come close to winning these wards in local elections where the only serious opposition to Labour has come from Independent candidates. Like the other parts of the seat this area is heavily working class with a large proportion of council housing and a significant Asian population.
The other addition is the Willenhall South ward from Walsall North which covers the centre of Willenhall – another old Black Country town which was the centre of the lock & key industry. The centre of Willenhall is a bit less grim than that of Darlaston but the demographics are not dissimilar and in contrast to Short Heath and Willenhall North, Willenhall South is a safe Labour ward in local elections. Labour came closer to carrying Willenhall South than any other ward in Walsall North in 2019 but even so were not that close (both Wolverhampton and Walsall councils very helpfully published the ward results for the general election, so we do not need to engage in guesswork here).
The upshot is that the aggregate Conservative lead in the Walsall wards is just enough to outvote Labour’s lead in the Wolverhampton wards so this is a notionally Conservative seat.
This constituency is tied together by the Black Country Route which runs from Coseley in the West to the edge of Walsall in the East and is now wholly contained within this seat. The route takes the traveller through a post-industrial wasteland – the train journey as it passes through this seat en route from Wolverhampton to Birmingham is even more stark. This constituency is in the bottom 10 for graduates and for professional and managerial workers, in the top 10 for those with no qualifications and routine workers. All the councillors in the wards within this seat were elected under the Labour banner. The idea of this constituency producing a Conservative lead seems bizarre and yet it is next door to the very similar West Bromwich West (Tipton & Wednesbury) where a Conservative MP is a reality. Here at least (apart from the one ward from Walsall North) there is no Conservative MP, nor is there likely to be one in the near future.
Notional result 2019
Bilston has formed the core of a constituency since 1885 and from then until 1974, though the name was changed from time to time (it was Wolverhampton South before 1918, then Wolverhampton Bilston and finally plain Bilston after 1950), the boundaries remained virtually the same, including the towns of Coseley and Sedgley as well as Bilston itself.
Bilston was a safe Labour seat since 1945 although the final contest in 1970 was close as Enoch Powell’s influence came to bear.
Bilston was transformed into Wolverhampton South East in 1974, consequent upon the reorganisation of local government in the region in the 1960s. Most of Coseley and Sedgeley had moved into an enlarged Dudley County borough and thus joined constituencies formed of that borough. Bilston, together with smaller parts of Coseley and Sedgeley had joined Wolverhampton so Wolverhampton South East was formed of these areas plus some wards from Wolverhampton proper – Blakenhall and Parkfield from Wolverhampton SW and Eastfield from NE (the latter two wards roughly corresponding to the area now covered by East Park and part of Ettingshall ward). This also proved to be a safe Labour seat until 2019 when in line with many neighbouring seats there was a large swing to the Conservatives which brought them close to victory.
From 2010 the boundaries of the constituency had been extended to include the Dudley ward of Coseley East (which actually covers most of the Dudley section of Coseley – there is no ‘Coseley West’ ward). Coseley East differed somewhat from the Wolverhampton wards in being heavily white in comparison, but it did not differ much politically, at least in local elections. This is a safe Labour ward – one of only three Labour won in Dudley in 2021 and the Conservatives have never come all that close to winning, although UKIP did win in 2014 and the BNP had done well in the early years of the century. In the general election of 2019 though, the Conservatives carried the ward by more than two to one, mirroring the result in neighbouring Dudley North from whence this ward had come and where it now returns. The removal of this ward alone would add a couple of thousand to Labour’s 2019 majority but it is offset by the removal of Blakenhall. This largely inner-city ward to the South of Wolverhampton is majority Asian and over 40% Sikh – the highest figure in the country. This remains an overwhelmingly Labour voting ward at all levels and therefore the removal of Blakenhall and Coseley East more or less balance each other out, demographically and politically.
The wards which remain are all fairly similar in their demographic make up. All have a large council estate presence, all have significant black and (especially) Asian populations (Ettingshall is the most ‘non-white’ ward now following the departure of Blakenhall). All are thoroughly working class with low numbers of graduates and a high proportion of those with no qualifications. There is some inner city terrain in East Park and Ettingshall wards which both border the inner ring road of Wolverhampton and include the ubiquitous inner Wolverhampton mixture of industrial wasteland, Victorian terraces and inter-war council estates. East Park includes more modern council housing out in Moseley and further out still, Portobello is a moderately respectable suburban area. This has enabled the Conservatives to win in East Park in the exceptional year of 2008 and they were not far behind in the general election, whereas Labour carried Ettingshall easily.
The Conservatives were ahead then in Spring Vale – a somewhat amorphous ward, covering areas like Woodcross and Lanesfield which were historically in Coseley but may equally look to Bilston or Wolverhampton – a mixture of inter-war and post-war housing, owner occupied and council. Like Coseley East, the Conservatives have never won that ward at the local level, and it was in fact a Lib Dem held ward for many decades before they first lost a seat to UKIP in 2014 and subsequently Labour took control of the ward. Clearly the strong UKIP vote here, as in Coseley East, pointed to the strong potential for the Conservatives to do well in an election fought on the issue of Brexit.
The two Bilston wards also voted Conservative narrowly in 2019 – in the case of Bilston North this was not a wholly unique occurrence as the Conservatives have on occasion won the seat in good local election years. Bilston town could be said to include the southern half of Ettingshall ward so overall Bilston itself may have produced a very small Labour lead against a large lead in the inner parts of Wolverhampton and a large Conservative lead in Coseley (including Spring Vale), all adding up to a small Labour lead overall. As we have seen the removal of Coseley East and Blakenhall wards cancel each other out, leaving Labour still ahead by around 1,000 votes in the five Wolverhampton wards.
The replacement for the departed wards comes in the form of three wards from Walsall and should dispel any doubts about the Black Country character of this seat.
The two wards covering the town of Darlaston come from Walsall South – like Wolverhampton South East, a rare Black Country seat which Labour held in 2019. But that victory was enabled by a massive lead in the heavily Asian wards of inner Walsall and the Conservatives were actually ahead in both Darlaston wards. This is as extraordinary as any result in that election. Darlaston is grimmer than Bilston – a ghost town built on coal mines whose industry all closed in the 1980s. The Conservatives have never come close to winning these wards in local elections where the only serious opposition to Labour has come from Independent candidates. Like the other parts of the seat this area is heavily working class with a large proportion of council housing and a significant Asian population.
The other addition is the Willenhall South ward from Walsall North which covers the centre of Willenhall – another old Black Country town which was the centre of the lock & key industry. The centre of Willenhall is a bit less grim than that of Darlaston but the demographics are not dissimilar and in contrast to Short Heath and Willenhall North, Willenhall South is a safe Labour ward in local elections. Labour came closer to carrying Willenhall South than any other ward in Walsall North in 2019 but even so were not that close (both Wolverhampton and Walsall councils very helpfully published the ward results for the general election, so we do not need to engage in guesswork here).
The upshot is that the aggregate Conservative lead in the Walsall wards is just enough to outvote Labour’s lead in the Wolverhampton wards so this is a notionally Conservative seat.
This constituency is tied together by the Black Country Route which runs from Coseley in the West to the edge of Walsall in the East and is now wholly contained within this seat. The route takes the traveller through a post-industrial wasteland – the train journey as it passes through this seat en route from Wolverhampton to Birmingham is even more stark. This constituency is in the bottom 10 for graduates and for professional and managerial workers, in the top 10 for those with no qualifications and routine workers. All the councillors in the wards within this seat were elected under the Labour banner. The idea of this constituency producing a Conservative lead seems bizarre and yet it is next door to the very similar West Bromwich West (Tipton & Wednesbury) where a Conservative MP is a reality. Here at least (apart from the one ward from Walsall North) there is no Conservative MP, nor is there likely to be one in the near future.
Notional result 2019
| Con | 17952 | 45.5% |
| Lab | 17407 | 44.1% |
| BxP | 2229 | 5.6% |
| LD | 1279 | 3.2% |
| Grn | 543 | 1.4% |
| Oth | 54 | 0.1% |
| Majority | 545 | 1.4% |
