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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 4:02:33 GMT
The Conservatives lost more than 80% of their numerical vote from 2019. Has that ever been matched by a seat they were defending?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 4:04:03 GMT
Reform had to come second here. This is a seat almost tailor made for them. Sure David.. definitely Reform are the big losers here  |
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Post by brianj on May 3, 2024 4:06:49 GMT
The Conservatives lost more than 80% of their numerical vote from 2019. Has that ever been matched by a seat they were defending? Dagenham, 9 June 1994. The Tories lost the seat in 1992 but received 15,294 votes. In the by-election, they dropped to 2,130 (86% decline). Edit: Similar decline in Barking the same day as the Tory vote fell from 11,956 to 1,976, an 83% decline (with Theresa May as the by-election candidate!) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 4:11:05 GMT
The Conservatives lost more than 80% of their numerical vote from 2019. Has that ever been matched by a seat they were defending? Dagenham, 9 June 1994. The Tories lost the seat in 1992 but received 15,294 votes. In the by-election, they dropped to 2,130 (86% decline). That is quite spectacular and I put the caveat in because I was thinking of seats like Bermondsey where they got squeezed out by the Liberals (actually they lost just under 80% there), but obviously Dagenham isn't a seat they were defending.. |
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Post by brianj on May 3, 2024 4:14:13 GMT
Dagenham, 9 June 1994. The Tories lost the seat in 1992 but received 15,294 votes. In the by-election, they dropped to 2,130 (86% decline). That is quite spectacular and I put the caveat in because I was thinking of seats like Bermondsey where they got squeezed out by the Liberals (actually they lost just under 80% there), but obviously Dagenham isn't a seat they were defending.. My mistake - but they came close in Dudley West on 15 December 1994, going from 34,729 to 7,706 (77.8% decline). |
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catfest
Non-Aligned
( e ^ i* pi ) + 1 = 0
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Post by catfest on May 3, 2024 4:14:30 GMT
Electorate - 56,696
Verified ballot papers - 18,448
Turnout - 32.54%
Low turn-out for a By?
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 3, 2024 4:16:26 GMT
Reform had to come second here. This is a seat almost tailor made for them. Sure David.. definitely Reform are the big losers here Didn't say that. My party's issues are obvious, I don't even need to say so. Rushmore speaks for itself. Reform though, and you know I'm sympathetic to Reform, has to do better here. I mean, come on. They should have come second. Deprived, anti-immigration, heavily leave, disenchanted - where else is Reform supposed to do well? Councils are one thing, but Parliament matters. I'm not anti-Reform, but I will evaluate it impartially. Indeed, I'm watching GBN, and Tice was hyping the chances and predicting Reform coming second. That speaks for itself given the actual result. Expectation management out the window. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 3, 2024 4:23:03 GMT
Remember, symbolism matters.
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Post by newsouthender on May 3, 2024 7:10:19 GMT
I don’t think I’m giving anything away by saying that there wasn’t a Conservative campaign to speak of so the result isn’t much of a surprise. Other than designing the freeposts, there was no outside help. Campaign sessions consisted of a few valiant locals working out the boot of the candidate’s car. This didn’t really compare with Labour’s blitz which even bought up commercial billboards as well as an online advertising blitz. I will not miss hearing from Chris Webb while watching You Tube episodes of Night Garden with my granddaughter. I can totally understand that the Mayoral campaigns had to be prioritised by the party but it is still disappointing when a by-election finally lands in your home seat!
Still can’t understand what Reform were doing. They were pushing at an open door with a local candidate, the circumstances of the by-election and strong local feeling on immigration, not to mention the unpopularity of the government. It seems to be a lack of campaigning experience. Things like when Lee Anderson visited, they spent the day wandering round bedsit land in Brunswick where about three people will vote rather than the more stable communities in South Shore. Often Mark Butcher seemed like he had very few boots on the ground. If they are struggling in a by-election in a very compact urban area, they will be very reliant on national media coverage to make an impact in a general election.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 3, 2024 7:38:26 GMT
That's the thing which comes with experience. You'll know which areas have terrible turnout, no hope returns etc. Thinking you can just drop in, walk around, and attract votes is naïve. Not knowing to target the soft Tory squeeze in the outskirts is naïve. If they now abandon this seat before the next election, that just underlines how new parties don't know how to do the groundwork in-between polling days.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 8:27:29 GMT
I thought the Reform candidate interviewed on the BBC pre-declaration came across with dignity, even though he wasn't used to Laura K being Laura K at him and a different interviewer could have got lots more interest out of him.
What about the Tory candidate though? Suggestions he could go on to Fylde but the little I saw of him was far from impressive. From the post above it sounds like he was largely abandoned, would you do that if he was being lined up for the next door seat in a few months?
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Post by newsouthender on May 3, 2024 8:47:15 GMT
I thought the Reform candidate interviewed on the BBC pre-declaration came across with dignity, even though he wasn't used to Laura K being Laura K at him and a different interviewer could have got lots more interest out of him. What about the Tory candidate though? Suggestions he could go on to Fylde but the little I saw of him was far from impressive. From the post above it sounds like he was largely abandoned, would you do that if he was being lined up for the next door seat in a few months? I think the candidates were very well aware of the campaign that would be run when they went forward for selection so I don't think it is any comment on his abilities. He will certainly have lots of competition for Fylde, which is even more attractive with the boundary changes removing the Preston suburbs and adding in Poulton. Apparently on his flying visit to Blackpool South, the party Chairman disappeared off to press the flesh with the great and the good of the Fylde Association. Why on earth would he want to do that  ? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on May 3, 2024 9:07:45 GMT
Sure David.. definitely Reform are the big losers here Didn't say that. My party's issues are obvious, I don't even need to say so. Rushmore speaks for itself. Reform though, and you know I'm sympathetic to Reform, has to do better here. I mean, come on. They should have come second. Deprived, anti-immigration, heavily leave, disenchanted - where else is Reform supposed to do well? Councils are one thing, but Parliament matters. I'm not anti-Reform, but I will evaluate it impartially. Indeed, I'm watching GBN, and Tice was hyping the chances and predicting Reform coming second. That speaks for itself given the actual result. Expectation management out the window. these are fair points, but I do think that not everybody totally understands Blackpool South as a constituency. It isn't quite the same kind of place as classic Red Wall (ugh) territory like Grimsby or the former coalfield; it has only a very slight industrial heritage & it has always had some voters who are more socially liberal than the stereotypes we so often hear, though of course it isn't Brighton or anything like it. I always felt that it was unlikely that Reform would beat the Tories here and to me the surprise is how close they came to doing so. It's quite an owner-occupied & privately rented constituency although even its better-off districts like Squires Gate (which I know very well as my grandparents lived there for a couple of decades) are clearly less well-to-do than most of St Annes, let alone Lytham; it does have its council estates but that's a pretty small minority of the constituency. Yes it's still a heavily white seat and some parts are very deprived, but it isn't quite classic Reform UK country IMHO. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 9:08:37 GMT
Finally, they're counting: Why is so much of this incompetently and amazingly slow? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 9:10:42 GMT
Sure David.. definitely Reform are the big losers here Didn't say that. My party's issues are obvious, I don't even need to say so. Rushmore speaks for itself. Reform though, and you know I'm sympathetic to Reform, has to do better here. I mean, come on. They should have come second. Deprived, anti-immigration, heavily leave, disenchanted - where else is Reform supposed to do well? Councils are one thing, but Parliament matters. I'm not anti-Reform, but I will evaluate it impartially. Indeed, I'm watching GBN, and Tice was hyping the chances and predicting Reform coming second. That speaks for itself given the actual result. Expectation management out the window. That's a good description of the UKIP core vote. Judging by the relatively small difference in Reform support between Wellingborough and Kingswood, the Reform vote looks more like the Tory core vote. Which is itself not a great sign for them, because that implies a lower ceiling. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 9:23:29 GMT
I thought the Reform candidate interviewed on the BBC pre-declaration came across with dignity, even though he wasn't used to Laura K being Laura K at him and a different interviewer could have got lots more interest out of him. What about the Tory candidate though? Suggestions he could go on to Fylde but the little I saw of him was far from impressive. From the post above it sounds like he was largely abandoned, would you do that if he was being lined up for the next door seat in a few months? I think the candidates were very well aware of the campaign that would be run when they went forward for selection so I don't think it is any comment on his abilities. He will certainly have lots of competition for Fylde, which is even more attractive with the boundary changes removing the Preston suburbs and adding in Poulton. Apparently on his flying visit to Blackpool South, the party Chairman disappeared off to press the flesh with the great and the good of the Fylde Association. Why on earth would he want to do that ? I'm sure he was taking his opportunity to motivate and appreciate the troops like any good party chairman would do. LOL. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 10:04:54 GMT
Lab 10825 58.9% Con 3218 17.5% Ref 3101 16.9% LD 387 2.1% Grn 368 2.0% Ind 163 0.9% ADF 147 0.8% MRLP 121 0.7% NOP 45 0.2% The time it took for that quite small count is an incompetent damned disgrace. The returning officer should be utterly ashamed of themself. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 3, 2024 10:39:39 GMT
Finally, they're counting: Why is so much of this incompetently and amazingly slow? I think there are a number of factors. In quite a few areas we have moved from annual elections to 4-yearly which has resulted in a loss of experience. General local government destaffing and the loss of specialist staff. Decline in the number and quality of local party staffing/ volunteers who kept the council on its toes. Greater concern about box ticking rather than how to get the job to work. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 3, 2024 16:07:01 GMT
And more than one election happening on a particular day will always slow things down.
I can recall some seemingly interminable waits for Westminster byelection results in the 1980s and 90s anyway, so its not as new as some might think.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 3, 2024 16:28:51 GMT
Because of Tory cuts to local councils, and banks shutting down so many branches, there is a future where vote counters are now difficult to find than they've ever been.
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