Post by andrewp on Nov 25, 2023 15:01:54 GMT
With credit to greenhert who wrote the original profile here
The small city of Truro and the coastal town of Falmouth were paired in a parliamentary constituency in 2010. This is the second most easterly of the four constituencies in Cornwall that have both a northern Atlantic coastline and a Southern English Channel one. It was created from Falmouth & Camborne and Truro & St Austell constituencies but it is reminiscent of the Penryn & Falmouth constituency which was abolished in 1950, but without the town of St Austell this time. Rather bizarrely, given its place as the county town, Truro did not feature in the name of a parliamentary constituency between 1914 and 1950. Truro & Falmouth constituency has a boundary that is quite close to the boundaries of the now defunct district of Carrick in Cornwall.
Truro is Cornwall's only city. Its status as the county town and administrative headquarters is perhaps primarily down to its location in the geographical centre of the county rather than its size. It is actually surprisingly small ( population 23,000) and only the 4th largest settlement in Cornwall after Falmouth, Newquay and St Austell. It grew up on the Truro river as a port for the tin mining industry and was granted City status in 1876. It’s cathedral was not completed until 1910. Despite its relatively modest size, It houses all of the public organisations usually associated with administrative headquarter towns- County Hall, the Courts, Treliske hospital, which is the major hospital for the western two thirds of Cornwall, and the Hall for CornwallI, the largest entertainment venue in Cornwall. It has the largest central shopping area anywhere in Cornwall, far larger than most places of its size. It also hosts the Royal Cornwall Museum and once hosted the Truro Cathedral School, now closed. The public sector in Truro is therefore a significant local employer relative to the size of the settlement and like most provincial towns with a public sector influence, now has a political leaning away from the Conservative Party.
The town of Falmouth is more working class and very different; It grew up as a port on the river Fal, sitting beneath Pendennis castle, which Henry VIII had built in 1540 to protect the Carrick Roads, and which sits magnificently on a headland overlooking the town. It is also now home to Falmouth University, Cornwall's only significant institution of higher education, and the expansion of its campus has caused local tensions due to locals increasingly being priced out of the housing market as a result. The significant expansion of the University has altered the demographic dynamics substantially in this constituency. Despite only having gained university status in 2012, there are now 8700 students living in this constituency, most of them in Falmouth. Falmouth is the best part of the constituency for the Labour Party.
The two towns, and adjoining settlements, between them contribute over half of the constituency electorate. There are no other towns in the constituency, the rest of the electorate coming from the many largish villages of Mid Cornwall.
There haven’t been any local elections in Cornwall since 2021, a good year for the Conservative party in which they gained overall control of Cornwall council for the first time. Of the 15 divisions in this constituency the Conservatives won 7 to 4 Independents, 2 for Labour and 1 each for the Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Conservatives and Independents won all of the rural divisions in the new boundaries of this constituency. In Falmouth, Labour won the 2 central divisions of Arnewack and Penwerris whilst the Conservatives won Boslowick. The Greens took Penryn, a town adjacent to Falmouth. In Truro, the 3 core city divisions were shared 1 each for the Liberal Democrats, an Independent and the Conservatives, who won the central Moresk and Trevaherne division.
The boundary changes in Cornwall are relatively minor for 2024. St Ives, the most westerly constituency in the county, is undersized so the constituencies in the middle of the county need to shuffle eastwards slightly. The electorate of Truro and Falmouth is reduced by about 5000 net. The constituency loses about half of its northern coastline and about 8000 voters around the resorts of St Agnes and Perranporth to Camborne and Redruth. In return it takes about 2000 voters from St Austell to Newquay- on the north coast at Crantock at the edge of Newquay and on the south coast around Gorran Haven.
Given the university it is no surprise that this constituency is well within the top 100 in England and Wales for the % of people aged 16-24 (64th) and the percentage of students- 10.8% of the population are students (82nd most in England and Wales) It is also well within the lowest quartile for people with no formal qualifications. It is still, however, in the top quartile in England and Wales for the percentage of people aged over 65.
Truro (& St Austell), this seat's closest predecessor, was one of the original constituencies of the Model Parliament of 1295 until 1918 when it was replaced by Penryn & Falmouth; said Penryn & Falmouth switched hands between the Liberals and Conservatives twice but was won by Labour in 1945; the Labour MP in question, Evelyn Mansfield King, was later the Conservative MP for South Dorset from 1964-79. Upon its recreation in 1950 Truro was won by the Conservatives and despite the substantial Liberal strength from the old Cornish liberal tradition Labour were the main competitors and came close to winning in 1966. In February 1974 David Penhaligon revived the liberal tradition massively when he reduced Piers Dixon's majority to just 2,561, and via a tactical squeeze on Labour he won it in October 1974. The Labour vote proved remarkably elastic as Mr Penhaligon squeezed it to only 7.4% in 1979 and down to 4.6% in 1983. Mr Penhaligon, for a time considered a future Liberal/SDP Alliance leader, tragically died in a car crash in 1986, aged only 42, and his assistant Matthew Taylor held on easily in the by-election of 1987. Truro had its name changed to Truro & St Austell in 1997. St Austell had always been in the constituency, and was indeed the largest town . Mr Taylor held on comfortably throughout. He retired in 2010 and Terrye Teverson, wife of former MEP Robin Teverson (who had also failed twice to capture Falmouth & Camborne), lost to the Conservatives' Sarah Newton by just 435 votes.
Unlike some other seats in the South West like Central Devon or South East Cornwall where they have also done so, it is easier to see how Labour have moved past the Liberal Democrats into second place here and where the Labour vote comes from. It really is still quite remarkable how quickly Labour did it here though, In 2010 the Liberal Democrat’s polled 41% to Labour’s 10% here. Just 7 years later in 2017, the Liberal Democrat’s polled 15% to Labour’s 38%.
The Liberal Democrats sunk heavily in Truro & Falmouth in 2015. The increasing student population proved a boon for Labour in 2017 and 2019, with Labour increasing their share by fully 22.5% in 2017, the highest in a seat that they did not win or were not defending that year. They reduced Mrs Newton's majority to just 3,792 and pushed the Liberal Democrats into third place for the first time since 1970. Mrs Newton stood down in 2019 and Cherilyn Mackrory succeeded her as Conservative MP, winning with a majority of 4,600. Despite the new candidate a positive swing of less than 1% in 2019 looks like an ominous result for the Conservatives here, This really does currently look like an almost certain Labour gain in 2024. There are still 7,000 Liberal Democrat votes to squeeze. The boundary changes slightly reduce the rural element, which will slightly reduce the notional Conservative majority here. Labour probably need a swing of between 4 and 5% to represent Truro for the first time since 1950.
The small city of Truro and the coastal town of Falmouth were paired in a parliamentary constituency in 2010. This is the second most easterly of the four constituencies in Cornwall that have both a northern Atlantic coastline and a Southern English Channel one. It was created from Falmouth & Camborne and Truro & St Austell constituencies but it is reminiscent of the Penryn & Falmouth constituency which was abolished in 1950, but without the town of St Austell this time. Rather bizarrely, given its place as the county town, Truro did not feature in the name of a parliamentary constituency between 1914 and 1950. Truro & Falmouth constituency has a boundary that is quite close to the boundaries of the now defunct district of Carrick in Cornwall.
Truro is Cornwall's only city. Its status as the county town and administrative headquarters is perhaps primarily down to its location in the geographical centre of the county rather than its size. It is actually surprisingly small ( population 23,000) and only the 4th largest settlement in Cornwall after Falmouth, Newquay and St Austell. It grew up on the Truro river as a port for the tin mining industry and was granted City status in 1876. It’s cathedral was not completed until 1910. Despite its relatively modest size, It houses all of the public organisations usually associated with administrative headquarter towns- County Hall, the Courts, Treliske hospital, which is the major hospital for the western two thirds of Cornwall, and the Hall for CornwallI, the largest entertainment venue in Cornwall. It has the largest central shopping area anywhere in Cornwall, far larger than most places of its size. It also hosts the Royal Cornwall Museum and once hosted the Truro Cathedral School, now closed. The public sector in Truro is therefore a significant local employer relative to the size of the settlement and like most provincial towns with a public sector influence, now has a political leaning away from the Conservative Party.
The town of Falmouth is more working class and very different; It grew up as a port on the river Fal, sitting beneath Pendennis castle, which Henry VIII had built in 1540 to protect the Carrick Roads, and which sits magnificently on a headland overlooking the town. It is also now home to Falmouth University, Cornwall's only significant institution of higher education, and the expansion of its campus has caused local tensions due to locals increasingly being priced out of the housing market as a result. The significant expansion of the University has altered the demographic dynamics substantially in this constituency. Despite only having gained university status in 2012, there are now 8700 students living in this constituency, most of them in Falmouth. Falmouth is the best part of the constituency for the Labour Party.
The two towns, and adjoining settlements, between them contribute over half of the constituency electorate. There are no other towns in the constituency, the rest of the electorate coming from the many largish villages of Mid Cornwall.
There haven’t been any local elections in Cornwall since 2021, a good year for the Conservative party in which they gained overall control of Cornwall council for the first time. Of the 15 divisions in this constituency the Conservatives won 7 to 4 Independents, 2 for Labour and 1 each for the Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Conservatives and Independents won all of the rural divisions in the new boundaries of this constituency. In Falmouth, Labour won the 2 central divisions of Arnewack and Penwerris whilst the Conservatives won Boslowick. The Greens took Penryn, a town adjacent to Falmouth. In Truro, the 3 core city divisions were shared 1 each for the Liberal Democrats, an Independent and the Conservatives, who won the central Moresk and Trevaherne division.
The boundary changes in Cornwall are relatively minor for 2024. St Ives, the most westerly constituency in the county, is undersized so the constituencies in the middle of the county need to shuffle eastwards slightly. The electorate of Truro and Falmouth is reduced by about 5000 net. The constituency loses about half of its northern coastline and about 8000 voters around the resorts of St Agnes and Perranporth to Camborne and Redruth. In return it takes about 2000 voters from St Austell to Newquay- on the north coast at Crantock at the edge of Newquay and on the south coast around Gorran Haven.
Given the university it is no surprise that this constituency is well within the top 100 in England and Wales for the % of people aged 16-24 (64th) and the percentage of students- 10.8% of the population are students (82nd most in England and Wales) It is also well within the lowest quartile for people with no formal qualifications. It is still, however, in the top quartile in England and Wales for the percentage of people aged over 65.
Truro (& St Austell), this seat's closest predecessor, was one of the original constituencies of the Model Parliament of 1295 until 1918 when it was replaced by Penryn & Falmouth; said Penryn & Falmouth switched hands between the Liberals and Conservatives twice but was won by Labour in 1945; the Labour MP in question, Evelyn Mansfield King, was later the Conservative MP for South Dorset from 1964-79. Upon its recreation in 1950 Truro was won by the Conservatives and despite the substantial Liberal strength from the old Cornish liberal tradition Labour were the main competitors and came close to winning in 1966. In February 1974 David Penhaligon revived the liberal tradition massively when he reduced Piers Dixon's majority to just 2,561, and via a tactical squeeze on Labour he won it in October 1974. The Labour vote proved remarkably elastic as Mr Penhaligon squeezed it to only 7.4% in 1979 and down to 4.6% in 1983. Mr Penhaligon, for a time considered a future Liberal/SDP Alliance leader, tragically died in a car crash in 1986, aged only 42, and his assistant Matthew Taylor held on easily in the by-election of 1987. Truro had its name changed to Truro & St Austell in 1997. St Austell had always been in the constituency, and was indeed the largest town . Mr Taylor held on comfortably throughout. He retired in 2010 and Terrye Teverson, wife of former MEP Robin Teverson (who had also failed twice to capture Falmouth & Camborne), lost to the Conservatives' Sarah Newton by just 435 votes.
Unlike some other seats in the South West like Central Devon or South East Cornwall where they have also done so, it is easier to see how Labour have moved past the Liberal Democrats into second place here and where the Labour vote comes from. It really is still quite remarkable how quickly Labour did it here though, In 2010 the Liberal Democrat’s polled 41% to Labour’s 10% here. Just 7 years later in 2017, the Liberal Democrat’s polled 15% to Labour’s 38%.
The Liberal Democrats sunk heavily in Truro & Falmouth in 2015. The increasing student population proved a boon for Labour in 2017 and 2019, with Labour increasing their share by fully 22.5% in 2017, the highest in a seat that they did not win or were not defending that year. They reduced Mrs Newton's majority to just 3,792 and pushed the Liberal Democrats into third place for the first time since 1970. Mrs Newton stood down in 2019 and Cherilyn Mackrory succeeded her as Conservative MP, winning with a majority of 4,600. Despite the new candidate a positive swing of less than 1% in 2019 looks like an ominous result for the Conservatives here, This really does currently look like an almost certain Labour gain in 2024. There are still 7,000 Liberal Democrat votes to squeeze. The boundary changes slightly reduce the rural element, which will slightly reduce the notional Conservative majority here. Labour probably need a swing of between 4 and 5% to represent Truro for the first time since 1950.
