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Post by yellowperil on Nov 28, 2023 14:24:12 GMT
The problem that the Lib Dems will have in T & H (or predecessor seats) and N Shropshire is their stance on Europe. In a by-election, they're able to duck the issue (to some extent); not in a general election. Though their policies at present are vague, their desire for much closer ties with Europe are no secret. Come a general election, the respective MPs for these constituencies are going to face a very tough task convincing leave voters. Sarah Green - in C & A - will encounter this challenge far less, in a remain-leaning, affluent constituency, that has some parallels with nearby St Albans and Oxford W & A. I think one thing we can be fairly sure of is that next time round, the LibDems are not going to repeat their ridiculous and hubristic campaign of 2019 - not just in terms of targeting but message, ie "scrap Brexit" and the like. For most people, outside the diehard core who may be more likely to vote Reform than Tory the way things are going, vague "closer ties" with the EU are likely to be neither here or there compared to other issues. No more Bollocks, you mean? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Nov 28, 2023 14:39:15 GMT
just bollocks in lower case instead.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 28, 2023 18:17:05 GMT
The problem that the Lib Dems will have in T & H (or predecessor seats) and N Shropshire is their stance on Europe. In a by-election, they're able to duck the issue (to some extent); not in a general election. Though their policies at present are vague, their desire for much closer ties with Europe are no secret. Come a general election, the respective MPs for these constituencies are going to face a very tough task convincing leave voters. Sarah Green - in C & A - will encounter this challenge far less, in a remain-leaning, affluent constituency, that has some parallels with nearby St Albans and Oxford W & A. I think one thing we can be fairly sure of is that next time round, the LibDems are not going to repeat their ridiculous and hubristic campaign of 2019 - not just in terms of targeting but message, ie "scrap Brexit" and the like. For most people, outside the diehard core who may be more likely to vote Reform than Tory the way things are going, vague "closer ties" with the EU are likely to be neither here or there compared to other issues. I think you understate your case. Polls show a consistent majority of around 60:40 for the proposition that Brexit was a mistake, and dissatisfaction with the Brexit we have even among those who support (or supported) the principle. A lot of that is due to overwhelming dislike for Brexit among those who came onto the electoral roll since 2016, as was predicted at the time (to which the main response was to scream "you want us all to die!" rather than actually engaging with the matter and trying to win younger voters over). Anecdotally, I find they regard this as (yet another) issue where their generation were screwed by older ones with no right of redress. I don't for a minute think this translates into a big majority for Rejoin Now! but no-one is going to argue for that. I think the prospect of masses of voters, even in constituencies which voted Leave, deciding that the Conservatives as presently constituted are preferable to the Lib Dems because we are in favour of improving links with Europe, is zero. There are however some, especially but not solely in seats like C & A, who will think the other way round, by which I mean that they will dislike the current mess and blame the government for it (rightly so.) |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Nov 28, 2023 18:54:05 GMT
I think I asked this before but, regarding Gerrards Cross, are there any anecdotal reports of how Dominic Grieve's vote in the existing Beaconsfield was distributed in 2019?
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Post by jakegb on Nov 28, 2023 19:51:47 GMT
The problem that the Lib Dems will have in T & H (or predecessor seats) and N Shropshire is their stance on Europe. In a by-election, they're able to duck the issue (to some extent); not in a general election. Though their policies at present are vague, their desire for much closer ties with Europe are no secret. Come a general election, the respective MPs for these constituencies are going to face a very tough task convincing leave voters. Sarah Green - in C & A - will encounter this challenge far less, in a remain-leaning, affluent constituency, that has some parallels with nearby St Albans and Oxford W & A. I think one thing we can be fairly sure of is that next time round, the LibDems are not going to repeat their ridiculous and hubristic campaign of 2019 - not just in terms of targeting but message, ie "scrap Brexit" and the like. For most people, outside the diehard core who may be more likely to vote Reform than Tory the way things are going, vague "closer ties" with the EU are likely to be neither here or there compared to other issues. I do agree with your first point about the Lib Dem campaign of 2019. Next year - the number one issue will be the economy. But Brexit + immigration will certainly feed into different parties' economic policies/stances. Rightly or wrong, a significant proportion of the electorate will be keeping an eye on how all major parities 'honour' or 'promote' Brexit, particularly in the heavily leave voting seats. For the Lib Dems and (to a lesser extent Labour) , this could prove a challenge not only in target seats, but ones they currently hold (like the aforementioned N Shropshire). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2023 13:09:09 GMT
I just don't think even that many leave voters are ardently following all the details anymore.
For many of them, we voted to get out and as long as we stay out that's fine. They aren't bothered about the nuances.
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on Feb 26, 2024 21:10:21 GMT
I think I asked this before but, regarding Gerrards Cross, are there any anecdotal reports of how Dominic Grieve's vote in the existing Beaconsfield was distributed in 2019? I'd be interested to know that too... I think Chesham and Amersham is almost a certain Tory regain later this year, especially with Gerrards Cross now included |
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Post by heslingtonian on Feb 28, 2024 18:17:05 GMT
From what I hear from local Conservatives they are expecting it to be close at the GE although they have been buoyed by holding those two recent council by-elections in Buckinghamshire. I think a 1997 Christchurch-type result with the Conservatives regaining by 2-3k in an overall landslide defeat is the most likely scenario.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 28, 2024 18:50:24 GMT
From what I hear from local Conservatives they are expecting it to be close at the GE although they have been buoyed by holding those two recent council by-elections in Buckinghamshire. I think a 1997 Christchurch-type result with the Conservatives regaining by 2-3k in an overall landslide defeat is the most likely scenario. True although they were Tory bankers.... |
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Post by heslingtonian on Feb 28, 2024 20:25:58 GMT
From what I hear from local Conservatives they are expecting it to be close at the GE although they have been buoyed by holding those two recent council by-elections in Buckinghamshire. I think a 1997 Christchurch-type result with the Conservatives regaining by 2-3k in an overall landslide defeat is the most likely scenario. True although they were Tory bankers.... Agreed. At a local level, Buckinghamshire has shown far less signs of major Conservative erosion of support when compared to similar counties such as Oxfordshire and Berkshire. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the General Election. Surely Labour will gain Wycombe at least. |
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Post by jakegb on Feb 28, 2024 21:01:29 GMT
True although they were Tory bankers.... Agreed. At a local level, Buckinghamshire has shown far less signs of major Conservative erosion of support when compared to similar counties such as Oxfordshire and Berkshire. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the General Election. Surely Labour will gain Wycombe at least. Agreed - and MK Central. Oxfordshire is a wild card; there's potential that due to misguided tactical voting, they could actually end up with 5 seats (1 more than present, due to boundary changes). |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 28, 2024 21:22:27 GMT
True although they were Tory bankers.... Agreed. At a local level, Buckinghamshire has shown far less signs of major Conservative erosion of support when compared to similar counties such as Oxfordshire and Berkshire. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the General Election. Surely Labour will gain Wycombe at least. Hard to say given the last election in Buckinghamshire was in 2021, an excellent Conservative year, rather than 2022/23 in Berkshire and Oxfordshire. The Conservative by-election results in Buckingham East certainly wasn't good for example. The Hazlemere by-election was disappointing for the Lib Dems (complicated by the Independent doing well of course, but still), but I think this is more likely than not a (narrow) Lib Dem hold at a General Election. I'd certainly be more confident if not for the boundary changes though. |
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