Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 20, 2023 20:34:56 GMT
Hayes & Harlington, in the borough of Hillingdon, is dominated by another ‘H’ – namely Heathrow airport which occupies most of the southern quarter of the constituency and where many of the residents work (with many more employed in associated industries) and which is the busiest airport in Europe. This is a peripheral constituency, on the edge of Greater London, far removed in every way from the glitz and glamour of Central London.
Hayes & Harlington was created in 1950 when it was mostly carved out of the Southall seat (itself created only five years earlier.) At that time, it was coterminous with the Hayes & Harlington urban district, later absorbed by Hillingdon and the boundaries have not changed massively since then. In 1974 most of Heathrow airport was added along with a few villages nearby, which had previously been in Uxbridge and in 2010 it gained West Drayton from the same source. The only boundary changes to occur in the latest review are those occasioned by ward boundary changes which are trivial here and involve the transfer of a mere handful of voters.
The political preferences of the constituency have not changed much over the long term either. In the first contest in 1950 Labour won the seat by two to one and have enjoyed a similar dominance since regaining the seat in 1997. It remained safely Labour up until the Thatcher landslide of 1983 but then the Conservatives won comfortably, and Labour almost dropped to third place. The reason for the latter is that the Labour MP Neville Sandelson had defected to the SDP and he performed creditably in that election, splitting the non-Conservative vote exactly in two. There’s little doubt that the Conservatives would have gained the seat in 1983 anyway, as they gained socially similar seats (such as next-door Feltham & Heston where no such factor was present). The Conservatives extended their lead handily in 1987 when the SDP vote collapsed but clung on by only 53 votes in 1992 over Labour candidate (and former GLC member for the constituency) John McDonnell.
In 1997 the seat returned resoundingly to the Labour fold with McDonnell obtaining delayed gratification with a swing of over 17% and it has not been close since – although the Conservatives achieved a good swing and a decent vote share in 2019, they were still nearly 10,000 votes behind. The trajectory has been similar to other seats such as Edmonton in North London and Mitcham & Morden in South London, which Labour also gained in 1997 following near misses in 1992 and where the subsequent Labour dominance is part a reversion to type, part a reflection of demographic change.
Though the term was not much in vogue at the time, these seats were still predominantly ‘White working class’ when the Conservatives won in the 1980s, albeit with sizeable numbers of ethnic minorities. In the case of Hayes & Harlington, this is primarily Indian and largely Sikh, and the proportion of all ethnic minorities has grown hugely since then.
At the 1991 census (just before the last Conservative victory here), just over 20% of the population was ‘non-white’. Now it is more than two-thirds and only just over 20% are White British. The long-established Indian community has been joined by others, notably Somalians. Still at nearly 16% this has the second highest Sikh population of any constituency (after neighbouring Southall) but even so this is now outnumbered by the proportion of Muslims (20%) – there is a sizeable Hindu population of around 12% as well. As with the other seats mentioned, and with so much of London, this accounts for the reversion of this seat to safely Labour.
This seat is utterly dominated by Hayes which is far larger than Harlington and covers six of the eight wards. Harlington is in some ways lucky to still be included in the title of the constituency – a throwback to the name of a long ago abolished urban district and the fact that the earlier Harlington parish covered areas which are now functionally part of Hayes.
It is in fact just one of the ‘villages’ comprising the Heathrow Villages wards, albeit by far the largest. As one would expect given their location, these villages tend not to be bucolic idylls. Harlington itself is fairy dismal, Harmondsworth is more pleasant, Longford and Sipson somewhere in between. Heathrow Villages is one of the more marginal wards where the Conservatives topped the poll in 2010 and have otherwise often been competitive. Labour won comfortably enough in 2022 but nowhere near as easily as in the core Hayes wards.
Labour won by a similar margin then in West Drayton but that had also been marginal, electing Conservatives in all elections before 2018 (usually with the representation split with Labour). West Drayton is divided between a quite pleasant older village-like area around the green in the West and post-war council estates in the East.
The one other marginal ward – and the only one currently represented by a Conservative councillor -is Charville which is in the Northwest of Hayes proper. This has long been a marginal ward, dividing its representation between Labour and Conservatives in 2006, 2010 and 2014 and in 2022 the now two-member ward elected one councillor of each party on a near 50/50 vote split. Charville is whiter, more middle class and more owner-occupied than the other areas of Hayes which accounts for the continued Conservative competitiveness. Even though it is only just over 30% White British, this is double the figures for Belmore, Pinkwell and Hayes Town.
The first two named are the most heavily Asian wards, both over 50%, while in Hayes Town and Yeading there is a large Black population as well. Most of the housing in Hayes is a mixture of dreary inter-war semis and terraces and post-war council estates. Some of these are system-built blocks and tower blocks, especially around the centre of Hayes, which is grim, and in Yeading – a somewhat detached area that seems somewhat more connected to Northolt in Ealing borough. Labour can count on a near monolithic vote in the core Hayes wards – Pinkwell, Hayes Town, Wood End and Belmore – and in Yeading.
John McDonnell (who is almost as old as the constituency he represents) has now been the MP for over a quarter of a century and can clearly count on this seat now for as long as he wants it. It remains to be seen whether, with his brand of far-left Labour politics again consigned to the sidelines, he will choose to continue, but in any event this will remain an utterly safe Labour seat, with the Conservative victories 30 and 40 years ago looking ever more aberrant.
Hayes & Harlington was created in 1950 when it was mostly carved out of the Southall seat (itself created only five years earlier.) At that time, it was coterminous with the Hayes & Harlington urban district, later absorbed by Hillingdon and the boundaries have not changed massively since then. In 1974 most of Heathrow airport was added along with a few villages nearby, which had previously been in Uxbridge and in 2010 it gained West Drayton from the same source. The only boundary changes to occur in the latest review are those occasioned by ward boundary changes which are trivial here and involve the transfer of a mere handful of voters.
The political preferences of the constituency have not changed much over the long term either. In the first contest in 1950 Labour won the seat by two to one and have enjoyed a similar dominance since regaining the seat in 1997. It remained safely Labour up until the Thatcher landslide of 1983 but then the Conservatives won comfortably, and Labour almost dropped to third place. The reason for the latter is that the Labour MP Neville Sandelson had defected to the SDP and he performed creditably in that election, splitting the non-Conservative vote exactly in two. There’s little doubt that the Conservatives would have gained the seat in 1983 anyway, as they gained socially similar seats (such as next-door Feltham & Heston where no such factor was present). The Conservatives extended their lead handily in 1987 when the SDP vote collapsed but clung on by only 53 votes in 1992 over Labour candidate (and former GLC member for the constituency) John McDonnell.
In 1997 the seat returned resoundingly to the Labour fold with McDonnell obtaining delayed gratification with a swing of over 17% and it has not been close since – although the Conservatives achieved a good swing and a decent vote share in 2019, they were still nearly 10,000 votes behind. The trajectory has been similar to other seats such as Edmonton in North London and Mitcham & Morden in South London, which Labour also gained in 1997 following near misses in 1992 and where the subsequent Labour dominance is part a reversion to type, part a reflection of demographic change.
Though the term was not much in vogue at the time, these seats were still predominantly ‘White working class’ when the Conservatives won in the 1980s, albeit with sizeable numbers of ethnic minorities. In the case of Hayes & Harlington, this is primarily Indian and largely Sikh, and the proportion of all ethnic minorities has grown hugely since then.
At the 1991 census (just before the last Conservative victory here), just over 20% of the population was ‘non-white’. Now it is more than two-thirds and only just over 20% are White British. The long-established Indian community has been joined by others, notably Somalians. Still at nearly 16% this has the second highest Sikh population of any constituency (after neighbouring Southall) but even so this is now outnumbered by the proportion of Muslims (20%) – there is a sizeable Hindu population of around 12% as well. As with the other seats mentioned, and with so much of London, this accounts for the reversion of this seat to safely Labour.
This seat is utterly dominated by Hayes which is far larger than Harlington and covers six of the eight wards. Harlington is in some ways lucky to still be included in the title of the constituency – a throwback to the name of a long ago abolished urban district and the fact that the earlier Harlington parish covered areas which are now functionally part of Hayes.
It is in fact just one of the ‘villages’ comprising the Heathrow Villages wards, albeit by far the largest. As one would expect given their location, these villages tend not to be bucolic idylls. Harlington itself is fairy dismal, Harmondsworth is more pleasant, Longford and Sipson somewhere in between. Heathrow Villages is one of the more marginal wards where the Conservatives topped the poll in 2010 and have otherwise often been competitive. Labour won comfortably enough in 2022 but nowhere near as easily as in the core Hayes wards.
Labour won by a similar margin then in West Drayton but that had also been marginal, electing Conservatives in all elections before 2018 (usually with the representation split with Labour). West Drayton is divided between a quite pleasant older village-like area around the green in the West and post-war council estates in the East.
The one other marginal ward – and the only one currently represented by a Conservative councillor -is Charville which is in the Northwest of Hayes proper. This has long been a marginal ward, dividing its representation between Labour and Conservatives in 2006, 2010 and 2014 and in 2022 the now two-member ward elected one councillor of each party on a near 50/50 vote split. Charville is whiter, more middle class and more owner-occupied than the other areas of Hayes which accounts for the continued Conservative competitiveness. Even though it is only just over 30% White British, this is double the figures for Belmore, Pinkwell and Hayes Town.
The first two named are the most heavily Asian wards, both over 50%, while in Hayes Town and Yeading there is a large Black population as well. Most of the housing in Hayes is a mixture of dreary inter-war semis and terraces and post-war council estates. Some of these are system-built blocks and tower blocks, especially around the centre of Hayes, which is grim, and in Yeading – a somewhat detached area that seems somewhat more connected to Northolt in Ealing borough. Labour can count on a near monolithic vote in the core Hayes wards – Pinkwell, Hayes Town, Wood End and Belmore – and in Yeading.
John McDonnell (who is almost as old as the constituency he represents) has now been the MP for over a quarter of a century and can clearly count on this seat now for as long as he wants it. It remains to be seen whether, with his brand of far-left Labour politics again consigned to the sidelines, he will choose to continue, but in any event this will remain an utterly safe Labour seat, with the Conservative victories 30 and 40 years ago looking ever more aberrant.
