Post by Robert Waller on Nov 14, 2023 22:25:45 GMT
This is based on the original profile by Harrier, who has not been online here since 3 July, so I have taken the liberty of updating, without dispensing with his local knowledge and insights.
The constituency of Newcastle-under-Lyme has existed in some form since 1354. Situated in the far north west of Staffordshire, this seat borders all three of the Stoke-on-Trent constituencies with Crewe and Nantwich to the north and Stone to the south. Most of it is generally considered to form part of the Potteries conurbation, although many residents of the borough consider themselves firmly separate from Stoke-on-Trent despite the urban areas merging imperceptibly in many areas.
The constituency consists of the entire former Municipal Borough of Newcastle-under-Lyme plus some outlying villages formerly within Newcastle Rural District. It therefore currently consists of the entire modern Borough less 2 rural wards in the Stone constituency and the entire former Kidsgrove Urban District which lies in Stoke-on-Trent North.
The constituency is a varied assortment of adjacent although often geographically isolated suburbs and villages on the edge of the Potteries, alongside the town of Newcastle itself. The town centre is quite small and most residents rely on the proximity to Hanley (Stoke Central) or the large outlet centre at Talke (Stoke North). In the north of the constituency are the post-industrial areas of Chesterton, Bradwell and Holditch, these are all ex-mining communities situated between the town proper and Kidsgrove. Much redevelopment has occurred in the Chesterton area with new developments dating from the 1990s and early 2000s which have somewhat changed the characteristics of the area. Bradwell is a large council estate and has had its share of troubles with crime and poverty.
Moving south we enter the area of Wolstanton, a very mixed area with numerous linked neighbourhoods, all quite varied in both social group, affluence and housing types. Porthill and May Bank/Basford are fairly affluent areas in the Wolstanton environs, the latter in particular having many large houses (some might say mansions) along the leafy A527 road, ‘The Brampton’. Wolstanton itself is a hilly suburb, largely of terraces, much like those in neighbouring areas of Stoke. Moving south of Newcastle town centre is the very much more affluent group of suburbs. Clayton and Northwood are typical of the many mixed suburbs, each consisting of equal numbers of tidy pre-war semis on leafy avenues and ex-council housing. The ward/area highest up the social ladder is Westlands, locally synonymous with wealth, this is an well-to-do area with a large number of retired people. Each house is unique and the avenues are wide and tree-lined with some private roads and the most exclusive golf course in the Potteries.
To the west of the town are the ex-mining villages of Knutton and Silverdale, there are new developments on the old Silverdale colliery (closed 1998) that are changing the area considerably but as yet, they are still largely working-class and dominated by the cottage terraces of the ex-miners. Also to the west is Keele, a small village now dominated by the excellent and growing University and science park there, which is now a considerable employer and enjoys academic links with the Royal Stoke Hospital. Finally, the seat comprises some thinly-populated rural areas stretching to the Cheshire border. Audley, Halmer End, Scot Hay and others are post-industrial mining villages albeit in tranquil and beautiful countryside. Betley and Balterley feel very ‘Cheshire’ being very affluent and dominated by agriculture.
In the most recent local elections in May 2022 the Conservatives actually gained control of the borough from no overall control, making eight net gains on new ward boundaries, with Labour down two seats. Among the Tory gains were three from the Liberal Democrats, who were thereby expunged from the council (they had barely saved their depot in the 2019 general election), one in rural Audley and two in Thistleberry ward, east of Keele in the affluent middle class Westlands section of Newcastle. They took two from Independents in Madeley & Betley, the former part of which is added to this constituency in the minor boundary changes, Betley already being included. One gain was in Kidsgrove in Stoke-on-Trent North. But the gains in Silverdale and Crackley & Red Street (north of Chesterton) were directly from Labour in predominantly working class ex-mining areas (one out of the two in each case).
Apart from that Labour won only in the inner urban Town Centre and Cross Heath wards, in Wolstanton ward, Bradwell dominated by social housing, Holditch & Chesterton and Knutton in the former coalfield, and the anomalous Keele, dominated by the university which has the highest proportion of students living on campus if any in England (a 69% share, their highest (average) in Newcastle borough, on a 36% turnout, respectable for a university ward). Students may also have been influential in Labour’s interest in some other wards, with 20% being in full time education in Town Centre ward, though that is actually nearer Staffordshire University’s headquarters in central-west Stoke than the out of town Keele, which is named after a village (probably not the M6 service station). The Conservatives easily held the very middle class parts of Newcastle such as Westbury Park & Northwood and Westlands (the census MSOA here was 44% professional and managerial in 2021) and May Bank (36%). Overall the 2022 local election results suggested that the long term movement from Labour to Conservative was still continuing in full flow.
Politically, Newcastle has long been dominated by the Labour Party, who held the seat from Josiah Wedgwood’s defection from the Liberals in 1919 until December 2019’s gain by the Conservatives. The reasons for the political history are complex; it should be added that this constituency voted 62% leave and is nearly 92% white, with 21.5% of the workforce employed in manufacturing. This demographic has slowly trended Conservative in the last decade and nowhere is this reflected better than the Potteries. As the mining and industrial heritage (pottery, iron casting and brick-making being historically dominant) fades away, the workforce here is less unionized than ever and increasing less loyal to Labour. Whether the new-found sympathy for the Conservative Party in the post-Brexit world will be sustained is as yet unknown, but boundary changes add one part of a ward currently in the Stone constituency, centred on Madeley, a large village of about 4,000 population west of Keele, which makes Labour’s job regaining this seat slightly more difficult, with an increased Tory notional majority in 2019 of about 600 votes.
The Newcastle-under-Lyme result in December 2019 was one of the most convincing Tory gains in the general election, not because it had the biggest swing, which at 8.3% was surpassed elsewhere, but because the majority of 7,446 (16.6%) was one of the three largest in any of the Tory gains from Labour, along with Scunthorpe and Bishop Auckland. It will therefore technically be one of Labour’s hardest to regain. The 2022 municipal results suggest that they had not yet started the necessary recovery. However it should be noted that here were no scheduled council elections in Newcastle-under-Lyme in May 2023, when they made huge steps forward in many parts of the country, including doing very well next door in the Potteries in Stoke-on-Trent, another disaster area in 2019. It will be hard but not impossible to reverse that 2019 result after just one term. In any case, that 100 year history of Labour representation may well not be over for good.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 224/575
Owner occupied 65.7% 301/575
Private rented 15.6% 412/575
Social rented 18.8% 183/575
White 91.6% 269/575
Black 1.3% 297/575
Asian 4.6% 276/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 395/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.5% 151/575
Degree level 28.5% 381/575
No qualifications 19.6% 208/575
Students 10.7% 83/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle-under-Lyme
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Aaron Bell 23,485 52.5 +4.4
Labour Carl Greatbatch 16,039 35.9 -12.3
Liberal Democrats Nigel Jones 2,361 5.3 +1.5
Brexit Party Jason Cooper 1,921 4.3
Green Carl Johnson 933 2.1
C Majority 7,446 16.6
2019 electorate 68,211
Turnout 44,879 65.79 -1.1
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing
8.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle-under-Lyme consists of
100% of Newcastle-under-Lyme
4.8% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_457_Newcastle-under-Lyme_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
The constituency of Newcastle-under-Lyme has existed in some form since 1354. Situated in the far north west of Staffordshire, this seat borders all three of the Stoke-on-Trent constituencies with Crewe and Nantwich to the north and Stone to the south. Most of it is generally considered to form part of the Potteries conurbation, although many residents of the borough consider themselves firmly separate from Stoke-on-Trent despite the urban areas merging imperceptibly in many areas.
The constituency consists of the entire former Municipal Borough of Newcastle-under-Lyme plus some outlying villages formerly within Newcastle Rural District. It therefore currently consists of the entire modern Borough less 2 rural wards in the Stone constituency and the entire former Kidsgrove Urban District which lies in Stoke-on-Trent North.
The constituency is a varied assortment of adjacent although often geographically isolated suburbs and villages on the edge of the Potteries, alongside the town of Newcastle itself. The town centre is quite small and most residents rely on the proximity to Hanley (Stoke Central) or the large outlet centre at Talke (Stoke North). In the north of the constituency are the post-industrial areas of Chesterton, Bradwell and Holditch, these are all ex-mining communities situated between the town proper and Kidsgrove. Much redevelopment has occurred in the Chesterton area with new developments dating from the 1990s and early 2000s which have somewhat changed the characteristics of the area. Bradwell is a large council estate and has had its share of troubles with crime and poverty.
Moving south we enter the area of Wolstanton, a very mixed area with numerous linked neighbourhoods, all quite varied in both social group, affluence and housing types. Porthill and May Bank/Basford are fairly affluent areas in the Wolstanton environs, the latter in particular having many large houses (some might say mansions) along the leafy A527 road, ‘The Brampton’. Wolstanton itself is a hilly suburb, largely of terraces, much like those in neighbouring areas of Stoke. Moving south of Newcastle town centre is the very much more affluent group of suburbs. Clayton and Northwood are typical of the many mixed suburbs, each consisting of equal numbers of tidy pre-war semis on leafy avenues and ex-council housing. The ward/area highest up the social ladder is Westlands, locally synonymous with wealth, this is an well-to-do area with a large number of retired people. Each house is unique and the avenues are wide and tree-lined with some private roads and the most exclusive golf course in the Potteries.
To the west of the town are the ex-mining villages of Knutton and Silverdale, there are new developments on the old Silverdale colliery (closed 1998) that are changing the area considerably but as yet, they are still largely working-class and dominated by the cottage terraces of the ex-miners. Also to the west is Keele, a small village now dominated by the excellent and growing University and science park there, which is now a considerable employer and enjoys academic links with the Royal Stoke Hospital. Finally, the seat comprises some thinly-populated rural areas stretching to the Cheshire border. Audley, Halmer End, Scot Hay and others are post-industrial mining villages albeit in tranquil and beautiful countryside. Betley and Balterley feel very ‘Cheshire’ being very affluent and dominated by agriculture.
In the most recent local elections in May 2022 the Conservatives actually gained control of the borough from no overall control, making eight net gains on new ward boundaries, with Labour down two seats. Among the Tory gains were three from the Liberal Democrats, who were thereby expunged from the council (they had barely saved their depot in the 2019 general election), one in rural Audley and two in Thistleberry ward, east of Keele in the affluent middle class Westlands section of Newcastle. They took two from Independents in Madeley & Betley, the former part of which is added to this constituency in the minor boundary changes, Betley already being included. One gain was in Kidsgrove in Stoke-on-Trent North. But the gains in Silverdale and Crackley & Red Street (north of Chesterton) were directly from Labour in predominantly working class ex-mining areas (one out of the two in each case).
Apart from that Labour won only in the inner urban Town Centre and Cross Heath wards, in Wolstanton ward, Bradwell dominated by social housing, Holditch & Chesterton and Knutton in the former coalfield, and the anomalous Keele, dominated by the university which has the highest proportion of students living on campus if any in England (a 69% share, their highest (average) in Newcastle borough, on a 36% turnout, respectable for a university ward). Students may also have been influential in Labour’s interest in some other wards, with 20% being in full time education in Town Centre ward, though that is actually nearer Staffordshire University’s headquarters in central-west Stoke than the out of town Keele, which is named after a village (probably not the M6 service station). The Conservatives easily held the very middle class parts of Newcastle such as Westbury Park & Northwood and Westlands (the census MSOA here was 44% professional and managerial in 2021) and May Bank (36%). Overall the 2022 local election results suggested that the long term movement from Labour to Conservative was still continuing in full flow.
Politically, Newcastle has long been dominated by the Labour Party, who held the seat from Josiah Wedgwood’s defection from the Liberals in 1919 until December 2019’s gain by the Conservatives. The reasons for the political history are complex; it should be added that this constituency voted 62% leave and is nearly 92% white, with 21.5% of the workforce employed in manufacturing. This demographic has slowly trended Conservative in the last decade and nowhere is this reflected better than the Potteries. As the mining and industrial heritage (pottery, iron casting and brick-making being historically dominant) fades away, the workforce here is less unionized than ever and increasing less loyal to Labour. Whether the new-found sympathy for the Conservative Party in the post-Brexit world will be sustained is as yet unknown, but boundary changes add one part of a ward currently in the Stone constituency, centred on Madeley, a large village of about 4,000 population west of Keele, which makes Labour’s job regaining this seat slightly more difficult, with an increased Tory notional majority in 2019 of about 600 votes.
The Newcastle-under-Lyme result in December 2019 was one of the most convincing Tory gains in the general election, not because it had the biggest swing, which at 8.3% was surpassed elsewhere, but because the majority of 7,446 (16.6%) was one of the three largest in any of the Tory gains from Labour, along with Scunthorpe and Bishop Auckland. It will therefore technically be one of Labour’s hardest to regain. The 2022 municipal results suggest that they had not yet started the necessary recovery. However it should be noted that here were no scheduled council elections in Newcastle-under-Lyme in May 2023, when they made huge steps forward in many parts of the country, including doing very well next door in the Potteries in Stoke-on-Trent, another disaster area in 2019. It will be hard but not impossible to reverse that 2019 result after just one term. In any case, that 100 year history of Labour representation may well not be over for good.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 20.6% 224/575
Owner occupied 65.7% 301/575
Private rented 15.6% 412/575
Social rented 18.8% 183/575
White 91.6% 269/575
Black 1.3% 297/575
Asian 4.6% 276/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 395/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.5% 151/575
Degree level 28.5% 381/575
No qualifications 19.6% 208/575
Students 10.7% 83/575
General Election 2019: Newcastle-under-Lyme
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Aaron Bell 23,485 52.5 +4.4
Labour Carl Greatbatch 16,039 35.9 -12.3
Liberal Democrats Nigel Jones 2,361 5.3 +1.5
Brexit Party Jason Cooper 1,921 4.3
Green Carl Johnson 933 2.1
C Majority 7,446 16.6
2019 electorate 68,211
Turnout 44,879 65.79 -1.1
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing
8.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Newcastle-under-Lyme consists of
100% of Newcastle-under-Lyme
4.8% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_457_Newcastle-under-Lyme_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 25008 | 52.8% |
| Lab | 16743 | 35.4% |
| LD | 2670 | 5.6% |
| BxP | 1921 | 4.1% |
| Grn | 1021 | 2.2% |
| Con Majority | 8265 | 17.5% |
(it should be "militate", a completely different word)
