Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 7, 2023 19:42:01 GMT
This constituency dates back only to 2010 but is the clear successor to the Ruislip Northwood seat which was first contested in 1950. The boundaries of that constituency barely changed between 1950 and 1997 being more or less coterminous with the old Ruislip-Northwood Urban District which was merged into Hillingdon in 1964 and in the latter year Harefield was added from Uxbridge.
The 2010 boundary changes involved a major reconfiguration without altering the seats continued status as a very safe Conservative seat – indeed if anything it made it safer and with the effect on neighbouring seats giving it the appearance of a ‘packed gerrymander’. Around 25,000 voters (more than a third of the existing electorate) were removed in the ‘South Ruislip’ area to be merged with Uxbridge. This area was not typical of the of the constituency as a whole, being distinctly more downmarket than the areas which remained. South Ruislip itself (and its predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) saw Labour being historically competitive while the wards of Manor and Cavendish (covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively) were strong for the Lib Dems.
The core of the remaining area – Northwood, Eastcote and the Northern half of Ruislip is all extremely affluent and very safely Conservative – there have never been other than Conservative councillors elected in any of the wards here. Northwood Hill is a little more mixed than the other wards, with some council estates and a modest Labour vote but has never been marginal. There are some seriously wealthy neighbourhoods here, in Northwood especially.
The replacement for the ‘South Ruislip’ area came mainly in the form of Pinner and Hatch End from Harrow West – another c. 25,000 voters. This is likewise a very affluent, middle class and owner-occupied area comprising mostly detached housing from the inter-war years. It is likewise an area that has never come close to electing any Labour councillors (though the Lib Dems were able to win the old Pinner West ward in the 1990s). There are small pockets of council housing such as at Pinner Green and in the part of Hatch End ward around Headstone Lane, but they are very much the exception. There is however a large and growing ethnic Indian population in this part of Harrow as in the rest of the borough and while this has not (yet) pushed the wards here towards marginality, they are clearly less monolithically Conservative than in the past. Nevertheless, their loss to Harrow West wrecked any chances the Conservatives had there, while here they merely contribute to an already unassailable position. There is a significant Jewish population in Pinner and Hatch End as there is also in Northwood (but not Ruislip).
The final ward here is a true outlier – physically, demographically and politically (at least historically).
While Ruislip, Northwood, Eastcote, Pinner and Hatch End are all thoroughly suburban and built-up – mostly developed in the 1920s as part of ‘Metroland’ and well served by the Metropolitan line and other railways, Harefield is a large village surrounded by countryside and including significant tracts of farmland. It is connected to the other parts of the constituency only by country lanes. This covers the far North-West corner of Greater London, bordering both Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire. This is no rural Tory stronghold though, at least it has not been traditionally. Harefield is famous for its specialist heart Hospital of course and while the centre of Harefield, around the village green, is attractive enough, most of the residential areas are far from salubrious.
A majority of housing here used to be council owned and while right to buy plus some new development have pushed the figure down, it was still almost a quarter social rented in 2011. Harefield is by a long way the most working-class part of this constituency with a low proportion of graduates and professional and managerial workers. It is also by far the most heavily White part of this constituency.
It is not surprising given the above that Harefield is the one ward in this constituency with a history of voting Labour as it did often in the 1960s and 1970s and most recently in 1994. ‘History’ is indeed the operative word here though as since losing the ward in 1998 Labour’s vote has gone into free-fall and they haven’t managed to even finish second since 2002, being beaten even by the National Front in 2006 and by the Green party at the most recent election.
The closest the Conservatives have come to losing in recent years was to UKIP in 2014 and this is indeed, predictably, a strongly pro-Brexit area and this has been a factor in converting this into effectively a safe Conservative ward. It is probable that at the last general election the Conservatives did significantly better in Harefield (and Labour significantly worse) than in Pinner, which would have been unthinkable even 20 years ago.
As such all the wards here are now safely Conservative and this constituency may be unique in that no ward here has elected other than a Conservative councillor this century.
The boundary changes here are fairly minor and mostly involve realigning with new ward boundaries. The only major change is the removal of Ickenham and South Harefield ward to Uxbridge, where it logically (and historically) belongs. In exchange it takes back the Southern end of Eastcote ward (essentially the old Cavendish). Despite the distant Lib Dem voting history of that ward, this is a strongly Conservative area now and these changes more or less cancel each other out. In the Harrow section, the seat moves a little close to the centre of Harrow, gaining a few areas in the area of North Harrow and Rayners Lane which have been added to the Pinner wards. At the same time it loses Hatch End’s council estate section to Harrow East.
Labour would need to achieve a swing of around 15% to gain this seat at the next election. One is aware that current polls indicate such a swing nationally and that swings of that proportion were achieved in North West London the last time they swept to power. There are some indications though that the swing away from the Conservatives may be lower in Outer London than elsewhere. ULEZ was a major issue enabling the Conservatives to hold on at the by-election in neighbouring Uxbridge & South Ruislip but also reflected wider polarisation between Inner and Outer London. The Conservatives did very well in the 2022 borough elections in both Harrow and Hillingdon and in the case of the former this was mainly down to the trend of ethnic Indian Hindu voters towards the Conservatives. These now form a large proportion of the electorate here (this is the 5th most Hindu seat in the country) and coupled with one of their own occupying Number 10 this may start to benefit the Conservatives now rather than the opposite.
What may have looked like a ‘packed gerrymander’ when this seat was created may now appear to be the best way of preserving a Conservative seat anywhere in this part of London. It is quite conceivable that following the next election this will be the only Conservative seat in London, North of the Thames and West of the Lea.
The 2010 boundary changes involved a major reconfiguration without altering the seats continued status as a very safe Conservative seat – indeed if anything it made it safer and with the effect on neighbouring seats giving it the appearance of a ‘packed gerrymander’. Around 25,000 voters (more than a third of the existing electorate) were removed in the ‘South Ruislip’ area to be merged with Uxbridge. This area was not typical of the of the constituency as a whole, being distinctly more downmarket than the areas which remained. South Ruislip itself (and its predecessor wards of Bourne and Deansfield) saw Labour being historically competitive while the wards of Manor and Cavendish (covering the southern parts of Ruislip proper and Eastcote respectively) were strong for the Lib Dems.
The core of the remaining area – Northwood, Eastcote and the Northern half of Ruislip is all extremely affluent and very safely Conservative – there have never been other than Conservative councillors elected in any of the wards here. Northwood Hill is a little more mixed than the other wards, with some council estates and a modest Labour vote but has never been marginal. There are some seriously wealthy neighbourhoods here, in Northwood especially.
The replacement for the ‘South Ruislip’ area came mainly in the form of Pinner and Hatch End from Harrow West – another c. 25,000 voters. This is likewise a very affluent, middle class and owner-occupied area comprising mostly detached housing from the inter-war years. It is likewise an area that has never come close to electing any Labour councillors (though the Lib Dems were able to win the old Pinner West ward in the 1990s). There are small pockets of council housing such as at Pinner Green and in the part of Hatch End ward around Headstone Lane, but they are very much the exception. There is however a large and growing ethnic Indian population in this part of Harrow as in the rest of the borough and while this has not (yet) pushed the wards here towards marginality, they are clearly less monolithically Conservative than in the past. Nevertheless, their loss to Harrow West wrecked any chances the Conservatives had there, while here they merely contribute to an already unassailable position. There is a significant Jewish population in Pinner and Hatch End as there is also in Northwood (but not Ruislip).
The final ward here is a true outlier – physically, demographically and politically (at least historically).
While Ruislip, Northwood, Eastcote, Pinner and Hatch End are all thoroughly suburban and built-up – mostly developed in the 1920s as part of ‘Metroland’ and well served by the Metropolitan line and other railways, Harefield is a large village surrounded by countryside and including significant tracts of farmland. It is connected to the other parts of the constituency only by country lanes. This covers the far North-West corner of Greater London, bordering both Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire. This is no rural Tory stronghold though, at least it has not been traditionally. Harefield is famous for its specialist heart Hospital of course and while the centre of Harefield, around the village green, is attractive enough, most of the residential areas are far from salubrious.
A majority of housing here used to be council owned and while right to buy plus some new development have pushed the figure down, it was still almost a quarter social rented in 2011. Harefield is by a long way the most working-class part of this constituency with a low proportion of graduates and professional and managerial workers. It is also by far the most heavily White part of this constituency.
It is not surprising given the above that Harefield is the one ward in this constituency with a history of voting Labour as it did often in the 1960s and 1970s and most recently in 1994. ‘History’ is indeed the operative word here though as since losing the ward in 1998 Labour’s vote has gone into free-fall and they haven’t managed to even finish second since 2002, being beaten even by the National Front in 2006 and by the Green party at the most recent election.
The closest the Conservatives have come to losing in recent years was to UKIP in 2014 and this is indeed, predictably, a strongly pro-Brexit area and this has been a factor in converting this into effectively a safe Conservative ward. It is probable that at the last general election the Conservatives did significantly better in Harefield (and Labour significantly worse) than in Pinner, which would have been unthinkable even 20 years ago.
As such all the wards here are now safely Conservative and this constituency may be unique in that no ward here has elected other than a Conservative councillor this century.
The boundary changes here are fairly minor and mostly involve realigning with new ward boundaries. The only major change is the removal of Ickenham and South Harefield ward to Uxbridge, where it logically (and historically) belongs. In exchange it takes back the Southern end of Eastcote ward (essentially the old Cavendish). Despite the distant Lib Dem voting history of that ward, this is a strongly Conservative area now and these changes more or less cancel each other out. In the Harrow section, the seat moves a little close to the centre of Harrow, gaining a few areas in the area of North Harrow and Rayners Lane which have been added to the Pinner wards. At the same time it loses Hatch End’s council estate section to Harrow East.
Labour would need to achieve a swing of around 15% to gain this seat at the next election. One is aware that current polls indicate such a swing nationally and that swings of that proportion were achieved in North West London the last time they swept to power. There are some indications though that the swing away from the Conservatives may be lower in Outer London than elsewhere. ULEZ was a major issue enabling the Conservatives to hold on at the by-election in neighbouring Uxbridge & South Ruislip but also reflected wider polarisation between Inner and Outer London. The Conservatives did very well in the 2022 borough elections in both Harrow and Hillingdon and in the case of the former this was mainly down to the trend of ethnic Indian Hindu voters towards the Conservatives. These now form a large proportion of the electorate here (this is the 5th most Hindu seat in the country) and coupled with one of their own occupying Number 10 this may start to benefit the Conservatives now rather than the opposite.
What may have looked like a ‘packed gerrymander’ when this seat was created may now appear to be the best way of preserving a Conservative seat anywhere in this part of London. It is quite conceivable that following the next election this will be the only Conservative seat in London, North of the Thames and West of the Lea.
