Post by Robert Waller on Nov 7, 2023 17:07:12 GMT
Stoke-on-Trent South was the least strongly Labour of their three once rock solid constituencies in the city from October 1974 onwards, and it was the first to fall to the Conservatives, in 2017 rather than 2019 when the other two joined its apostasy. South has seen an unbroken series of swings away from Labour and to the Tories ever since 1997, six in all. Most recently in December 2019 this reached a peak of 13.4% and Jack Brereton increased his majority from 663 (achieved against the national tide in 2017) to 11,271. With major boundary changes in the offing that will take that base notionally up to over 16,000, it is highly likely that South will remain in the Conservative column next time, even if the other two Stoke seats return to their traditional allegiance, and even if Labour wins the general election as a whole comfortably.
The reason for South being the best seat in Stoke for the Tories has traditionally been that it included most of the isolated minority of middle class relatively affluent residential areas in the Potteries city. There are others, more extensively, in contiguous Newcastle-under-Lyme. But within Stoke-on-Trent itself, there were long periods when the only ward the Conservatives won in the annual May local elections was that based on Trentham, the owner occupied residential area to the east of the 725 acre Trentham estate, with it gardens, parkland, lake and country house ruins (abandoned in 1912 due to the swage pollution of the Trent by Stoke’s industry upsteam). Trentham Park is not actually within the boundaries of the city, and has not been in the South seat so far, but will be after the boundary changes. But the residential areas of Trentham, Hanford and Newstead always have been included, and this area at the extreme south west of the city and the constituency has always been distinctive politically. Throughout the 1980s, for example, Trentham ward was responsible for almost all the Conservative victories in council elections. On 12 occasions since 1973 the Trentham based ward has been the lone Tory win in May contests. This is all the more impressive because of the increasing Conservative success across Stoke as the 21st century has proceeded.
Within the Stoke South seat, for example, a growing area of Tory support has been found in the various wards named Meir on the south eastern edge of the city. Between 2000 and 2008, for example, they usually won Meir North. Since 2015 they have always taken Meir Hay North. The new ward of Meir Park proved a victory in 2023; and Meir South has been won in the most recent two occasions. The fact that the number of wards with Meir in the name has been increasing tells us something. This is the sector of Stoke with the most new housing development. The original core of Meir, on both sides of the A50, was dominated by a large 1950s council estate. But pretty much all the other parts are now private developments, including the 1960s Weston Coyney to the north to the huge 21st century owner occupied sprawl (‘Meir Park’) south of the giant retail complex at Cathchems Corner, and even further south, Meir Heath – which has not been in the South seat so far, but will be after the boundary changes.
All this seems far removed from the gritty, grimy heart of the ‘Six Towns’ of Stoke-on-Trent, with its overwhelming industrial heritage, not only in ceramic production but in coal mining and manufacturing industry. However this history is indeed represented elsewhere in the South seat. Up to and including 2019 South included two of the ‘six towns’, Fenton and Longton. Both lie between the more up-market sections of Trentham (SW) and Meir (SE) already described. Fenton will be moved into Stoke-on-Trent Central for the next election, but Longton lies right at the heart of the South constituency. The main A50 road bypasses Longtion town centre, which includes the only railway station in the seat. There are, of course, other neighbourhoods within South, such as the old industrial areas of Dresden and Florence, south of Longton, both with origins in the 19th century, and the former associated with ceramics and the latter with coalmining (its pit lasted exactly a century from 1874-1974, when it was merged with Hem Heath colliery 1924-93) to the west toward Trentham and also in Stoke South. There is also Blurton, an inter war council estate, and Mount Pleasant and Heron Cross/Hollybush - more owner occupied neighbourhoods near Stoke City FC, whose current (draughty) stadium was opened in 1997 (also on the site of an old colliery; Sir Stanley Matthews’s ashes are buried under the centre circle) just within Stoke South’s boundaries.
All these ‘south-central’ neighbourhoods are predominantly working class, some very much so, such as Longton West & Sandford Hill MSOA (43% routine and semi-routine, 2021 census), Blurton, Florence and Dresden. In Florence MSOA, for example, 33% have no educational qualifications and in Dresden and Longton West only 16% hold degrees (compare 35% in Trentham and 33% in Meir Heath). It is therefore clear that the Conservatives electoral success in Stoke South mush have applied to working class areas as well as the two more middle class sections. The Tories have won Blurton ward in 2019 and 2023 on the city council. Indeed even in the latter year, which saw a noticeable revival on Labours part across the city as a whole, they could not win any of the wards that stretch across its southern edge – even Dresden & Florence was retained by the ‘Community Independents’. Fenton was probably Labour’s most consistent area of strength, and it is being removed in the boundary changes, along with Mount Pleasant, Sandford Hill and Meir Hay, the South seat’s whole ‘northern tier’..
As well as nearly a quarter (24.3%) of Stoke South being moved into the severely undersized Central, even more electors are added as the seat expands beyond the city boundaries to take 30.5% of Stone. That constituency has been split no fewer than five ways, but the largest single section is switched to take South. It does not include any towns, really, but a selection of villages, within five wards at the Stone division’s northern end. Three of these are in the Stafford local authority – Swynnerton & Oulton (including Trentham Park), Fulford; and Barlaston. The latter is aptly included in a Stoke seat as it has been the site of the main Wedgwood factory since the late 1930s. The other two of the incoming wards are in Staffordshire Moorlands council: Checkley and Forsbook, which are located further down the A50 from Meir, as it heads south east towards Uttoxeter and Derby. Labour did not win a single one of these wards, even in May 2023, and their blue tint was marred only slightly by one Liberal Democrat in Fulford and one Independent in Checkley, both split representation wards. Overall Adam Gray’s figures add up to the Conservatives retaining a 10% lead on the new boundaries in 2023, with 43% to Labour’s 33%.
Given that Labour were not ahead even in a midterm seat if contests at a trough of Tory fortunes and popularity, on local election turnouts, the Tories remain favourites to hold Stoke-on-Trent South at a 2024 general election. There may well be a way back for Labour in the two other seats named Stoke, but almost certainly not here. It would have been hard anyway given that it is the most Tory part of a city that has been trending rightwards for decades, but the boundary changes have really changed the nature of the South seat as a whole. For example, they move the routine and semi routine occupation ranking from 11th to 88th, and lift the owner occupation rate well into the top third of seats. That Stoke South has now had to take in a substantial amount of rural terrain for the first time is a reflection of the relative decline of the population of the city, which is itself a function if the relative decline of its economic importance and strength; and that decline, perhaps surprisingly to some, is also connected to the weakening of the performance of the Labour party over several decades. It will be interesting to see whether and how far that is reversed in the next few general elections.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.1% 162/575
Owner occupied 71.0% 155/575
Private rented 12.5% 547/575
Social rented 16.5% 228/575
White 89.8% 294/575
Black 1.2% 309/575
Asian 6.5% 231/575
Managerial & professional 27.9% 418/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.0% 82/575
Degree level 25.8% 334/575
No qualifications 22.8% 88/575
Students 5.6% 286/575
General Election 2019: Stoke-on-Trent South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jack Brereton 24,632 62.2 +13.1
Labour Mark McDonald 13,361 33.7 -13.8
Liberal Democrats Rosalyn Gordon 1,611 4.1 +2.2
C Majority 11,271 28.5 +26.9
Turnout 39,604 61.4 -1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 13.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Stoke-on-Trent South consists of
75.7% of Stoke-on-Trent South
30.5% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_472_Stoke-on-Trent%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings / Thrasher)
The reason for South being the best seat in Stoke for the Tories has traditionally been that it included most of the isolated minority of middle class relatively affluent residential areas in the Potteries city. There are others, more extensively, in contiguous Newcastle-under-Lyme. But within Stoke-on-Trent itself, there were long periods when the only ward the Conservatives won in the annual May local elections was that based on Trentham, the owner occupied residential area to the east of the 725 acre Trentham estate, with it gardens, parkland, lake and country house ruins (abandoned in 1912 due to the swage pollution of the Trent by Stoke’s industry upsteam). Trentham Park is not actually within the boundaries of the city, and has not been in the South seat so far, but will be after the boundary changes. But the residential areas of Trentham, Hanford and Newstead always have been included, and this area at the extreme south west of the city and the constituency has always been distinctive politically. Throughout the 1980s, for example, Trentham ward was responsible for almost all the Conservative victories in council elections. On 12 occasions since 1973 the Trentham based ward has been the lone Tory win in May contests. This is all the more impressive because of the increasing Conservative success across Stoke as the 21st century has proceeded.
Within the Stoke South seat, for example, a growing area of Tory support has been found in the various wards named Meir on the south eastern edge of the city. Between 2000 and 2008, for example, they usually won Meir North. Since 2015 they have always taken Meir Hay North. The new ward of Meir Park proved a victory in 2023; and Meir South has been won in the most recent two occasions. The fact that the number of wards with Meir in the name has been increasing tells us something. This is the sector of Stoke with the most new housing development. The original core of Meir, on both sides of the A50, was dominated by a large 1950s council estate. But pretty much all the other parts are now private developments, including the 1960s Weston Coyney to the north to the huge 21st century owner occupied sprawl (‘Meir Park’) south of the giant retail complex at Cathchems Corner, and even further south, Meir Heath – which has not been in the South seat so far, but will be after the boundary changes.
All this seems far removed from the gritty, grimy heart of the ‘Six Towns’ of Stoke-on-Trent, with its overwhelming industrial heritage, not only in ceramic production but in coal mining and manufacturing industry. However this history is indeed represented elsewhere in the South seat. Up to and including 2019 South included two of the ‘six towns’, Fenton and Longton. Both lie between the more up-market sections of Trentham (SW) and Meir (SE) already described. Fenton will be moved into Stoke-on-Trent Central for the next election, but Longton lies right at the heart of the South constituency. The main A50 road bypasses Longtion town centre, which includes the only railway station in the seat. There are, of course, other neighbourhoods within South, such as the old industrial areas of Dresden and Florence, south of Longton, both with origins in the 19th century, and the former associated with ceramics and the latter with coalmining (its pit lasted exactly a century from 1874-1974, when it was merged with Hem Heath colliery 1924-93) to the west toward Trentham and also in Stoke South. There is also Blurton, an inter war council estate, and Mount Pleasant and Heron Cross/Hollybush - more owner occupied neighbourhoods near Stoke City FC, whose current (draughty) stadium was opened in 1997 (also on the site of an old colliery; Sir Stanley Matthews’s ashes are buried under the centre circle) just within Stoke South’s boundaries.
All these ‘south-central’ neighbourhoods are predominantly working class, some very much so, such as Longton West & Sandford Hill MSOA (43% routine and semi-routine, 2021 census), Blurton, Florence and Dresden. In Florence MSOA, for example, 33% have no educational qualifications and in Dresden and Longton West only 16% hold degrees (compare 35% in Trentham and 33% in Meir Heath). It is therefore clear that the Conservatives electoral success in Stoke South mush have applied to working class areas as well as the two more middle class sections. The Tories have won Blurton ward in 2019 and 2023 on the city council. Indeed even in the latter year, which saw a noticeable revival on Labours part across the city as a whole, they could not win any of the wards that stretch across its southern edge – even Dresden & Florence was retained by the ‘Community Independents’. Fenton was probably Labour’s most consistent area of strength, and it is being removed in the boundary changes, along with Mount Pleasant, Sandford Hill and Meir Hay, the South seat’s whole ‘northern tier’..
As well as nearly a quarter (24.3%) of Stoke South being moved into the severely undersized Central, even more electors are added as the seat expands beyond the city boundaries to take 30.5% of Stone. That constituency has been split no fewer than five ways, but the largest single section is switched to take South. It does not include any towns, really, but a selection of villages, within five wards at the Stone division’s northern end. Three of these are in the Stafford local authority – Swynnerton & Oulton (including Trentham Park), Fulford; and Barlaston. The latter is aptly included in a Stoke seat as it has been the site of the main Wedgwood factory since the late 1930s. The other two of the incoming wards are in Staffordshire Moorlands council: Checkley and Forsbook, which are located further down the A50 from Meir, as it heads south east towards Uttoxeter and Derby. Labour did not win a single one of these wards, even in May 2023, and their blue tint was marred only slightly by one Liberal Democrat in Fulford and one Independent in Checkley, both split representation wards. Overall Adam Gray’s figures add up to the Conservatives retaining a 10% lead on the new boundaries in 2023, with 43% to Labour’s 33%.
Given that Labour were not ahead even in a midterm seat if contests at a trough of Tory fortunes and popularity, on local election turnouts, the Tories remain favourites to hold Stoke-on-Trent South at a 2024 general election. There may well be a way back for Labour in the two other seats named Stoke, but almost certainly not here. It would have been hard anyway given that it is the most Tory part of a city that has been trending rightwards for decades, but the boundary changes have really changed the nature of the South seat as a whole. For example, they move the routine and semi routine occupation ranking from 11th to 88th, and lift the owner occupation rate well into the top third of seats. That Stoke South has now had to take in a substantial amount of rural terrain for the first time is a reflection of the relative decline of the population of the city, which is itself a function if the relative decline of its economic importance and strength; and that decline, perhaps surprisingly to some, is also connected to the weakening of the performance of the Labour party over several decades. It will be interesting to see whether and how far that is reversed in the next few general elections.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.1% 162/575
Owner occupied 71.0% 155/575
Private rented 12.5% 547/575
Social rented 16.5% 228/575
White 89.8% 294/575
Black 1.2% 309/575
Asian 6.5% 231/575
Managerial & professional 27.9% 418/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.0% 82/575
Degree level 25.8% 334/575
No qualifications 22.8% 88/575
Students 5.6% 286/575
General Election 2019: Stoke-on-Trent South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jack Brereton 24,632 62.2 +13.1
Labour Mark McDonald 13,361 33.7 -13.8
Liberal Democrats Rosalyn Gordon 1,611 4.1 +2.2
C Majority 11,271 28.5 +26.9
Turnout 39,604 61.4 -1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 13.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Stoke-on-Trent South consists of
75.7% of Stoke-on-Trent South
30.5% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_472_Stoke-on-Trent%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings / Thrasher)
| Con | 29225 | 62.5% |
| Lab | 13862 | 29.6% |
| LD | 2916 | 6.2% |
| Grn | 749 | 1.6% |
| Con Majority | 15393 | 32.9% |