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Post by gaitskellite on Oct 15, 2023 9:58:26 GMT
What if the 1985 GLC election had gone ahead?
As Labour's 1981 majority had been no landslide could Livingstone actually have lost?
How would the new 1983 Westminster boundaries effect the notional 1981 result?
Would the Alliance have picked up more seats?
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 15, 2023 10:08:47 GMT
If Livingstone was going to lose then Thatcher probably wouldn't have abolished it
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 15, 2023 10:47:11 GMT
If Livingstone was going to lose then Thatcher probably wouldn't have abolished it This is a nice theory but quite untrue. By the late 1970s it was inevitable that the next Conservative government (under whichever Prime Minister) would have abolished the GLC in the 1980s. They would not have done so while it was under Conservative control but would have moved against any Labour leadership, not just a left-wing one. See Professor Ken Young's article on "Ideals and Reality" www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1179/ldn.2001.26.1.57. In practice, abolition was decided at a cabinet meeting setting the 1983 manifesto, long before anyone could have predicted the outcome of the 1985 election. Many GLC Conservatives were disappointed as they were keen to beat Livingstone at the polls, and indeed thought him highly beatable. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2023 11:09:43 GMT
Whilst the above post is not wrong, there is truth in what mattbewilson says as well. The proposal to abolish the GLC was distinctly unpopular (to the surprise of the Tories) and gave Livingstone a lifeline. Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well. |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 15, 2023 16:16:17 GMT
Whilst the above post is not wrong, there is truth in what mattbewilson says as well. The proposal to abolish the GLC was distinctly unpopular (to the surprise of the Tories) and gave Livingstone a lifeline. Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well. Is that true though? There were four by-elections deliberately held in the run up to abolition (1985?) with Labour campaigning on the issue and they lost Vauxhall to the Liberals IIRC. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2023 16:51:36 GMT
Whilst the above post is not wrong, there is truth in what mattbewilson says as well. The proposal to abolish the GLC was distinctly unpopular (to the surprise of the Tories) and gave Livingstone a lifeline. Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well. Is that true though? There were four by-elections deliberately held in the run up to abolition (1985?) with Labour campaigning on the issue and they lost Vauxhall to the Liberals IIRC. You are both right and wrong.
The four 'deliberate' by-elections were held in 1984 but all were held by Labour (Edmonton, Hayes and Harlington, Paddington and Lewisham West).
There was a Vauxhall by election in 1985 , caused by the resignation of Bryn Davies who had been the leader of ILEA (1981-3) and the Liberals did indeed win it. The Tories did not field candidates in any of these by elections, but did defend their seat at Romford also in 1985.
The successful Liberal candidate in Vauxhall was Mike Tuffrey later a Lambeth councillor , GLA member and unsuccessful challenger for the Lib Dem mayoral candidacy in 2012.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2023 18:14:31 GMT
The Bishop says "Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well" and that is probably true, but that is not a necessary premise to this thread. Perhaps there were no plans to abolish it.
Obviously Labour would find it harder to win a majority on the new boundaries than on the old ones due to the abolition of many of their safe seats in places like Hackney, Islington, Camden, Haringey, Lambeth. I think they would have done badly in what were still overwhelmingly white Outer London seats like Enfield North, Hornchurch , Ealing North - and these contributed to what was not a large majority in 1981. Of course there were one of two potential gains, not least Hampstead which happened to be the seat of the Conservative leader at the time.
The Alliance did pretty well in the county council elections in 1985 and would likely have made some gains here - Sutton & Cheam and Twickenham being the most obvious from the Conservatives - Orpington perhaps too. Boundary changes would have cost them some other opportunites (eg the abolition of Harrow Central). They would likely have won Bermondsey and possibly Islington South & Finsbury.
Most likely result to my mind is a hung council
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2023 18:16:05 GMT
Oh and maybe that annoying woman would have held on St Pancras North - probably not though tbh
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2023 18:23:55 GMT
Oh and maybe that annoying woman would have held on St Pancras North - probably not though tbh You mean Anne Sofer.
Of course she caused another by-election (Oct 1981), by resigning her seat and re-fighting it as an SDP candidate, beating Mildred Gordon of all people. The 'Abolish the GLC' candidate got 82 votes.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 15, 2023 18:27:09 GMT
Oh and maybe that annoying woman would have held on St Pancras North - probably not though tbh You mean Anne Sofer.
Of course she caused another by-election (Oct 1981), by resigning her seat and re-fighting it as an SDP candidate, beating Mildred Gordon of all people. The 'Abolish the GLC' candidate got 82 votes.
yes - but of course St Pancras North was abolished. I guess she may have stood in Hampstead & Highgate as she did in the 1983 GE |
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Post by batman on Oct 15, 2023 19:18:30 GMT
Whilst the above post is not wrong, there is truth in what mattbewilson says as well. The proposal to abolish the GLC was distinctly unpopular (to the surprise of the Tories) and gave Livingstone a lifeline. Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well. my cousin Arnold Kinzley was the Tory GLC member for Redbridge Ilford South from 1977 until he lost the seat in 1981. He subsequently became a borough councillor for Cranbrook ward. He was as Thatcherite a Tory as one could reasonably expect anyone to be, but he was firmly against GLC abolition. It was one of the few issues on which we ever agreed. His fairly frequent visits to my house (he was a taxi driver, and sometimes got a fare to Heathrow, and we were on the way back for him) were punctuated by me making him a cup of tea, and good-natured but definite political argument. I'm told that even in the East End he was already a Tory, which was very rare. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2023 4:54:48 GMT
The notional result of the 1981 GLC election on the new electoral division boundaries would have most likely been (actual results in brackets):
Lab 45 (50), Con 38 (41), Lib 1 (1)
Labour would have lost through abolition: Hackney Central, Islington Central, St Pancras North, Wood Green, Battersea South, Lambeth Central
Conservatives would have lost through abolition: Harrow Central, St Marylebone
Croydon NW would have been flipped to Labour by boundary changes.
There were not that many seats which Labour could have gained. Norwood would most likely have been a gain - Hampstead & Highgate would have been a target but not an easy one at that time. On paper Hendon North would be the most vulnerable Conservative seat vis a vis Labour but I don't see Labour winning that in 1985.
The Conservatives would have had a larger number of target seats: Hornchurch, Ilford South, Enfield North, Hornsey & Wood Green, Westminster North*, Fulham, Ealing North, Putney, Dulwich, Lewisham West, Eltham, Mitcham & Morden, Croydon NW. Against that they would have been very vulnerable to the Liberals in Sutton & Cheam and Twickenham
* Ken Livingstone may have gone on a chicken run again as he had in 1977 - possibly switching to Brent East at that point.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2023 6:10:20 GMT
Would this result have more or less reflected the 1986 local elections? Would the Liberals have been able to win seats in Tower Hamlets?
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Post by greenhert on Oct 16, 2023 8:20:19 GMT
Would this result have more or less reflected the 1986 local elections? Would the Liberals have been able to win seats in Tower Hamlets? If that hypothetical election had been held on new boundaries, no, thanks to de facto gerrymandering of the two Tower Hamlets seats. There was no good reason whatsoever to change Bethnal Green & Bow and Stepney & Poplar to Bethnal Green & Stepney and Bow & Poplar because Tower Hamlets' seat entitlement remained unchanged, nor were disparities in electorate between the two seats significant. The more likely Liberal gains would have been Twickenham and Southwark & Bermondsey (the only seat won by the Alliance during the solitary ILEA direct election). |
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Post by batman on Oct 16, 2023 10:18:31 GMT
The notional result of the 1981 GLC election on the new electoral division boundaries would have most likely been (actual results in brackets): Lab 45 (50), Con 38 (41), Lib 1 (1) Labour would have lost through abolition: Hackney Central, Islington Central, St Pancras North, Wood Green, Battersea South, Lambeth Central Conservatives would have lost through abolition: Harrow Central, St Marylebone Croydon NW would have been flipped to Labour by boundary changes. There were not that many seats which Labour could have gained. Norwood would most likely have been a gain - Hampstead & Highgate would have been a target but not an easy one at that time. On paper Hendon North would be the most vulnerable Conservative seat vis a vis Labour but I don't see Labour winning that in 1985. The Conservatives would have had a larger number of target seats: Hornchurch, Ilford South, Enfield North, Hornsey & Wood Green, Westminster North*, Fulham, Ealing North, Putney, Dulwich, Lewisham West, Eltham, Mitcham & Morden, Croydon NW. Against that they would have been very vulnerable to the Liberals in Sutton & Cheam and Twickenham * Ken Livingstone may have gone on a chicken run again as he had in 1977 - possibly switching to Brent East at that point. Livingstone stood in a different constituency in every GLC/ILEA election he contested so it would be true to form |
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Post by batman on Oct 16, 2023 10:20:06 GMT
Would this result have more or less reflected the 1986 local elections? Would the Liberals have been able to win seats in Tower Hamlets? If that hypothetical election had been held on new boundaries, no, thanks to de facto gerrymandering of the two Tower Hamlets seats. There was no good reason whatsoever to change Bethnal Green & Bow and Stepney & Poplar to Bethnal Green & Stepney and Bow & Poplar because Tower Hamlets' seat entitlement remained unchanged, nor were disparities in electorate between the two seats significant. The more likely Liberal gains would have been Twickenham and Southwark & Bermondsey (the only seat won by the Alliance during the solitary ILEA direct election). seeing that the Liberals won every single council seat in the Twickenham constituency in 1986 (the only time they have ever achieved this), it would indeed have been surprising if the Tories could have held the constituency in a GLC election the year before. I was bullied at primary school by George Tremlett's son |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2023 10:30:49 GMT
Whilst the above post is not wrong, there is truth in what mattbewilson says as well. The proposal to abolish the GLC was distinctly unpopular (to the surprise of the Tories) and gave Livingstone a lifeline. Any elections in 1985 *with the council under the threat of abolition* would almost certainly have seen Labour do well. Is that true though? There were four by-elections deliberately held in the run up to abolition (1985?) with Labour campaigning on the issue and they lost Vauxhall to the Liberals IIRC. Though the Vauxhall loss was IIRC largely due to Liberal campaigning against the then ever controversial Labour council. (the winner then was also LibDem candidate in the 1989 Vauxhall byelection btw) |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 17, 2023 7:45:58 GMT
Is that true though? There were four by-elections deliberately held in the run up to abolition (1985?) with Labour campaigning on the issue and they lost Vauxhall to the Liberals IIRC. Though the Vauxhall loss was IIRC largely due to Liberal campaigning against the then ever controversial Labour council. (the winner then was also LibDem candidate in the 1989 Vauxhall byelection btw) And a London AM for 12 years. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 17, 2023 8:37:20 GMT
Remember that the 1985 Vauxhall GLC byelection polled on 11 July, which was only a week after Lambeth had finally and chaotically set a legal rate.
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Max
Labour
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Post by Max on Oct 18, 2023 11:41:43 GMT
Is that true though? There were four by-elections deliberately held in the run up to abolition (1985?) with Labour campaigning on the issue and they lost Vauxhall to the Liberals IIRC. Though the Vauxhall loss was IIRC largely due to Liberal campaigning against the then ever controversial Labour council. (the winner then was also LibDem candidate in the 1989 Vauxhall byelection btw) And in the 1992 general election. |
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