Post by John Chanin on Oct 8, 2023 9:03:13 GMT
60% of this seat consists of the pocket borough of North Warwickshire (less 2 wards hived off to Nuneaton). This resembles South Staffordshire on the other side of the West Midlands conurbation in many ways, in particular in the absence of any sizeable town. Where it differs is that it was the location of the Warwickshire coalfield, which survived until surprisingly late into the current century, so that it shares some mining heritage and associated political loyalties with similar semi-rural seats further north. The largest town is Atherstone - an old market town with a quaint high street and a population of around 10,000. It is a working-class town, with considerable social housing, but one that has done better than most based on its location in the middle of the country, close to the M6 and M42, which has led to an expansion of distribution warehouses. There are two other towns - Polesworth just to the east of Tamworth, separated by the M42, is nearly as working-class as Atherstone. This was the heart of the old coal mining area, mostly opencast, and Dordon, now part of the same urban area, is an old mining village with the lowest educational qualifications in the whole constituency, and still with much council housing unlike Polesworth itself. The urban area as a whole has a similar population to Atherstone. The third town is Coleshill, with a population of 7000, which sits just to the east of Greater Birmingham, alongside the complicated junction of the M6, M6 toll, and M42. This makes it a good site for distribution centres, and it is distinctly up market of the other two towns, as it also functions in part as a commuter village. Note that the name does not derive, directly anyway, from the coalfield, but rather from the river Cole, which flows through Birmingham and Chelmsley Wood to its junction with the Tame just north of the town. Atherstone and Coleshill are politically mixed at a local level, while Polesworth remains Labour.
Commuter villages characterise much of the west of the seat, close to the Birmingham boundary - places like Water Orton, Curdworth and Wishaw are as Conservative as commuter villages elsewhere. Fillongley half way between Birmingham and Coventry is similar. The Tame flows north to Tamworth through a watery maze of channels and water parks surrounded by small villages in deep country like Kingsbury and Wood End, which remain surprisingly working class, with Labour still competitive at a local level. The seat stretches a long way north - almost to the border with Derbyshire - and this rural area around Newton Regis is also solidly Conservative. All in all North Warwickshire remains a mixed area, where both parties can win seats on the council, but like other historically Labour semi-rural areas has been moving inexorably towards the Conservatives.
The other 40% of the seat consists of the very working-class town of Bedworth, really a northerly extension of Coventry, separated only by the M6. The town was built on coal, but the last pit closed 30 years ago, and it is now depressed, sending many workers into Coventry. Managerial occupations are less than 30% throughout, and routine jobs and lack of qualifications are even higher than in North Warwickshire. However an important qualification is that owner-occupation is quite high in Bedworth, with only the central Bede ward having large amounts of council housing. There is a small Asian population on the Coventry side of Bedworth, but the constituency as a whole is mainly white. Historically Bedworth was a Labour stronghold, continuing to return Labour councillors even in bad years like 2008 when the Conservatives took control of Nuneaton & Bedworth council. But this changed in 2018 and the Conservatives now hold all 5 of the wards, doing better than in Nuneaton, where they were traditionally stronger. There was little sign of any swing back in 2022, and the sharp swing to the right in Bedworth has different causes to the long-term changes in North Warwickshire.
This was a harbinger of the 2019 General Election result where there was a large swing to the Conservatives following an unusually large swing in 2017 as well. North Warwickshire was a new creation in 1983, taking Bedworth from the oversized Nuneaton seat, and what is now North Warwickshire from the oversized Meriden seat, and like neighbouring Nuneaton was won narrowly in 1983 and 1987, but lost to Labour in 1992. In 2010 it was the second most marginal seat in the country as the Conservatives narrowly wrested it from Labour. The enormous lead gained by the Conservatives in 2019, reflecting similar results in semi-rural ex-mining districts, and rundown working class towns, both of which apply here, suggest that it will be difficult for Labour to regain the seat now, unless there is a major realignment in loyalties. The total swing to the Conservatives since 1997 is an astonishing 33%. MP here is Craig Tracey, originally from Durham and an insurance broker, first elected in 2015 after Dan Byles who won the seat in 2010 stood down.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to better match local authority boundaries, in this case by restoring the North Warwickshire ward of Arley & Whitacre to the seat, which currently sits anomalously in Nuneaton, but chose not to. However they have decided to acknowledge the presence of Bedworth by adding it to the constituency name.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (162/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (422nd), social rented 14% (344th).
: White 92%(252nd), Black 1%(319th), South Asian 3%(261st), Mixed 2%(361st), Other 2%(371st)
: Managerial & professional 32% (468th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (137th)
: Degree level 24%(519th), Minimal qualifications 35%(71st)
: Students 5% (424th), Over 65: 21% (195th)
Boundaries : The seat is unchanged
Commuter villages characterise much of the west of the seat, close to the Birmingham boundary - places like Water Orton, Curdworth and Wishaw are as Conservative as commuter villages elsewhere. Fillongley half way between Birmingham and Coventry is similar. The Tame flows north to Tamworth through a watery maze of channels and water parks surrounded by small villages in deep country like Kingsbury and Wood End, which remain surprisingly working class, with Labour still competitive at a local level. The seat stretches a long way north - almost to the border with Derbyshire - and this rural area around Newton Regis is also solidly Conservative. All in all North Warwickshire remains a mixed area, where both parties can win seats on the council, but like other historically Labour semi-rural areas has been moving inexorably towards the Conservatives.
The other 40% of the seat consists of the very working-class town of Bedworth, really a northerly extension of Coventry, separated only by the M6. The town was built on coal, but the last pit closed 30 years ago, and it is now depressed, sending many workers into Coventry. Managerial occupations are less than 30% throughout, and routine jobs and lack of qualifications are even higher than in North Warwickshire. However an important qualification is that owner-occupation is quite high in Bedworth, with only the central Bede ward having large amounts of council housing. There is a small Asian population on the Coventry side of Bedworth, but the constituency as a whole is mainly white. Historically Bedworth was a Labour stronghold, continuing to return Labour councillors even in bad years like 2008 when the Conservatives took control of Nuneaton & Bedworth council. But this changed in 2018 and the Conservatives now hold all 5 of the wards, doing better than in Nuneaton, where they were traditionally stronger. There was little sign of any swing back in 2022, and the sharp swing to the right in Bedworth has different causes to the long-term changes in North Warwickshire.
This was a harbinger of the 2019 General Election result where there was a large swing to the Conservatives following an unusually large swing in 2017 as well. North Warwickshire was a new creation in 1983, taking Bedworth from the oversized Nuneaton seat, and what is now North Warwickshire from the oversized Meriden seat, and like neighbouring Nuneaton was won narrowly in 1983 and 1987, but lost to Labour in 1992. In 2010 it was the second most marginal seat in the country as the Conservatives narrowly wrested it from Labour. The enormous lead gained by the Conservatives in 2019, reflecting similar results in semi-rural ex-mining districts, and rundown working class towns, both of which apply here, suggest that it will be difficult for Labour to regain the seat now, unless there is a major realignment in loyalties. The total swing to the Conservatives since 1997 is an astonishing 33%. MP here is Craig Tracey, originally from Durham and an insurance broker, first elected in 2015 after Dan Byles who won the seat in 2010 stood down.
Warwickshire provided an unusually easy task for the Boundary Commission as the only change required (apart from realignment to new ward boundaries) was to move one ward from Warwick & Leamington to Kenilworth & Southam. They could have realigned the seats to better match local authority boundaries, in this case by restoring the North Warwickshire ward of Arley & Whitacre to the seat, which currently sits anomalously in Nuneaton, but chose not to. However they have decided to acknowledge the presence of Bedworth by adding it to the constituency name.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (162/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (422nd), social rented 14% (344th).
: White 92%(252nd), Black 1%(319th), South Asian 3%(261st), Mixed 2%(361st), Other 2%(371st)
: Managerial & professional 32% (468th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (137th)
: Degree level 24%(519th), Minimal qualifications 35%(71st)
: Students 5% (424th), Over 65: 21% (195th)
Boundaries : The seat is unchanged
2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 26,860 | 56.9 | 30,249 | 65.9 |
Labour | 18,350 | 38.9 | 12,293 | 26.8 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,028 | 2.2 | 2,069 | 4.5 |
Green | 940 | 2.0 | 1,303 | 2.8 |
| Majority | 8,510 | 18.0 | 17,956 | 39.1 |
