Post by John Chanin on Oct 7, 2023 9:45:42 GMT
Rugby is a large town on the river Avon with a population of 75,000, most famous for giving its name to the sport, developed in the private school which still exists here. It grew up in the 1800s with the railways, as it formed an important junction, and it still has a large station, and here is where the west coast main line splits, one branch heading to Birmingham, and the other through Tamworth to Stoke. It subsequently became an important engineering centre, and its location on the M6 has helped to keep it more economically successful than the coalfield towns to the north-west.
The town accounts for two-thirds of the seat and is traditionally marginal. The centre is Victorian and sits to the south of the river and the railway. Benn ward on the east side has large amounts of private renting in the old terraces by the centre, and is the Labour stronghold in the town. New Bilton ward on the west of the town centre is similar with some council housing further out, and is also thoroughly working class and Labour voting. To the south-west are the middle-class owner occupied areas of Cawston, Bilton, and Overslade. These leafy areas of inter-war semi-detached housing have more managerial than routine workers The south-west votes mostly Conservative at local elections. The south-east is just as up market, and owner-occupied, although there is some council housing in Hillmorton (once a separate village). The Liberal Democrats have established a stronghold here, routinely winning in Eastlands and Paddox wards, while Hillmorton remains resolutely Conservative. The whole south of the town will be majority Conservative though at national elections. North of the river Avon (and the Oxford canal) is rather different. Brownsover consists of extensive post-war council estates (albeit as usual with much right to buy), with a large industrial estate to the north, and is Labour, at least outside the focus on Brexit. Further out are extensive new private developments where people normally vote Conservative, but Labour have surprisingly won at the last two council elections, despite the up market and owner-occupied character of the area. And to the north-west between the Avon and the Oxford canal, is Newbold - an old village swallowed up by the town. Rugby is not as white as the coalfield towns, and there are sizable minorities of around 10%, fairly evenly distributed through the town.
The remaining third of the seat is largely rural, and tilts Rugby to the right. To the north of Rugby is an extensive flat agricultural region, bisected by the M6, with remote villages like Pailton, Brinklow, and Withybrook, bordered to the east by the Fosse Way(A5) which separates Warwickshire from Leicestershire. To the north Wolvey and Bramcote are a little larger and within the orbit of Nuneaton. This area though small in population is as Conservative as most rural areas. Between Rugby and Coventry there is more of a commuter village feel. Binley Woods and Wolston are satellites of Coventry, and Long Lawford of Rugby. The population in this area is similar in size to the rural north, and equally middle-class and Conservative. Rugby District is the right size for a seat of its own, but the Boundary Commission, giving more weight to minimal change than local government boundaries, has desisted from making the constituency coterminous, although this could easily have been achieved. The two rural wards to the south of the town are hived off to Kenilworth & Southam, and are replaced by Bulkington from Nuneaton District. Bulkington is a satellite of Nuneaton, and has a decidedly suburban feel. It is mainly owner-occupied but quite working-class and traditionally marginal.
All this adds up to a seat that Labour can win a good year. Labour held a seat tightly drawn round the town between 1966 and 1979. In 1983 the town was linked with the very Conservative and middle-class town of Kenilworth, and it was a major surprise when Labour won the seat in 1997 by 500 votes, and held it in 2001. In 2010 on basically its current boundaries (the only change here is realignment to new ward boundaries, involving only 500 electors), the Conservatives won comfortably, but the town would have been close. The subsequent swing to the Conservatives (with a bump in 2017) more closely matches the national picture, than the large swings in the coalfield towns to the north-west. Despite the sizable 2019 majority, this is a seat which is not entirely safe for the Conservatives, although Labour could achieve a majority without it. MP here is Mark Pawsey who won the seat in 2010 after the sitting member opted for the new safer seat of Kenilworth & Southam. He was a small businessman and local councillor prior to his election, and is the son of the Conservative MP defeated here in 1997.
Census data: Owner-occupied 69% (218/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (267th), social rented 13% (384th).
: White 86%(351st), Black 3%(193rd), South Asian 6%(179th), Mixed 3%(234th), Other 3%(246th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (269th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (199th)
: Degree level 33%(244th), Minimal qualifications 26%(345th)
: Students 6% (287th), Over 65: 18% (325th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 99% from Rugby and 1% from Kenilworth & Southam
100% of the old seat is in the new one
The town accounts for two-thirds of the seat and is traditionally marginal. The centre is Victorian and sits to the south of the river and the railway. Benn ward on the east side has large amounts of private renting in the old terraces by the centre, and is the Labour stronghold in the town. New Bilton ward on the west of the town centre is similar with some council housing further out, and is also thoroughly working class and Labour voting. To the south-west are the middle-class owner occupied areas of Cawston, Bilton, and Overslade. These leafy areas of inter-war semi-detached housing have more managerial than routine workers The south-west votes mostly Conservative at local elections. The south-east is just as up market, and owner-occupied, although there is some council housing in Hillmorton (once a separate village). The Liberal Democrats have established a stronghold here, routinely winning in Eastlands and Paddox wards, while Hillmorton remains resolutely Conservative. The whole south of the town will be majority Conservative though at national elections. North of the river Avon (and the Oxford canal) is rather different. Brownsover consists of extensive post-war council estates (albeit as usual with much right to buy), with a large industrial estate to the north, and is Labour, at least outside the focus on Brexit. Further out are extensive new private developments where people normally vote Conservative, but Labour have surprisingly won at the last two council elections, despite the up market and owner-occupied character of the area. And to the north-west between the Avon and the Oxford canal, is Newbold - an old village swallowed up by the town. Rugby is not as white as the coalfield towns, and there are sizable minorities of around 10%, fairly evenly distributed through the town.
The remaining third of the seat is largely rural, and tilts Rugby to the right. To the north of Rugby is an extensive flat agricultural region, bisected by the M6, with remote villages like Pailton, Brinklow, and Withybrook, bordered to the east by the Fosse Way(A5) which separates Warwickshire from Leicestershire. To the north Wolvey and Bramcote are a little larger and within the orbit of Nuneaton. This area though small in population is as Conservative as most rural areas. Between Rugby and Coventry there is more of a commuter village feel. Binley Woods and Wolston are satellites of Coventry, and Long Lawford of Rugby. The population in this area is similar in size to the rural north, and equally middle-class and Conservative. Rugby District is the right size for a seat of its own, but the Boundary Commission, giving more weight to minimal change than local government boundaries, has desisted from making the constituency coterminous, although this could easily have been achieved. The two rural wards to the south of the town are hived off to Kenilworth & Southam, and are replaced by Bulkington from Nuneaton District. Bulkington is a satellite of Nuneaton, and has a decidedly suburban feel. It is mainly owner-occupied but quite working-class and traditionally marginal.
All this adds up to a seat that Labour can win a good year. Labour held a seat tightly drawn round the town between 1966 and 1979. In 1983 the town was linked with the very Conservative and middle-class town of Kenilworth, and it was a major surprise when Labour won the seat in 1997 by 500 votes, and held it in 2001. In 2010 on basically its current boundaries (the only change here is realignment to new ward boundaries, involving only 500 electors), the Conservatives won comfortably, but the town would have been close. The subsequent swing to the Conservatives (with a bump in 2017) more closely matches the national picture, than the large swings in the coalfield towns to the north-west. Despite the sizable 2019 majority, this is a seat which is not entirely safe for the Conservatives, although Labour could achieve a majority without it. MP here is Mark Pawsey who won the seat in 2010 after the sitting member opted for the new safer seat of Kenilworth & Southam. He was a small businessman and local councillor prior to his election, and is the son of the Conservative MP defeated here in 1997.
Census data: Owner-occupied 69% (218/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (267th), social rented 13% (384th).
: White 86%(351st), Black 3%(193rd), South Asian 6%(179th), Mixed 3%(234th), Other 3%(246th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (269th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (199th)
: Degree level 33%(244th), Minimal qualifications 26%(345th)
: Students 6% (287th), Over 65: 18% (325th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 99% from Rugby and 1% from Kenilworth & Southam
100% of the old seat is in the new one
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 27,872 | 54.3 | 29,255 | 57.6 | 29,308 | 57.3 |
Labour | 19,660 | 38.3 | 15,808 | 31.1 | 15,913 | 31.1 |
Liberal Democrat | 2,851 | 5.6 | 4,207 | 8.3 | 4,236 | 8.3 |
Green | 953 | 1.9 | 1,544 | 3.0 | 1,662 | 3.3 |
| Majority | 8,212 | 16.0 | 13,447 | 26.5 | 13,395 | 26.2 |
