Post by John Chanin on Oct 6, 2023 11:34:45 GMT
Kenilworth is a prosperous small town with a population of 22,500 that sits between Coventry and Leamington, and accounts for nearly a third of this seat. It has a brand new railway station linking it to those towns, and is within commuting range of Birmingham. North of the main street is Abbey Fields, with its ruined abbey and memorial to the Oxford train disaster of 1874 in the associated parish church. On the other side of the Fields is the old High Street, with its fine buildings, and its thatched houses at the south end,leading to the red sandstone walls of Kenilworth Castle. This was an important mediaeval fortress, home to John of Gaunt and later Dudley, Earl of Leicester, who courted Queen Elizabeth here, but it was ruined during the Civil War as a royalist stronghold. Over 50% of residents have managerial jobs here, and Kenilworth is a favoured location for staff at Warwick university and the adjacent business park, but is too expensive for the students. The university itself straddles the boundary with Coventry, and there is some student accommodation on the Warwick side. Traditionally like most prosperous small towns Kenilworth was Conservative, but both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats have made advances at local elections, and there must have been a significant Labour vote here when the old Rugby & Kenilworth seat was won by Labour.
Another 10,000 voters come from the rural north of Warwick District. To the west are commuter villages like Hatton at the bottom, and Lapworth at the top, of the large flight of locks that take the Grand Union canal up from the Avon valley onto the central plain of the Midlands. To the east is Stoneleigh, with its National Agricultural Centre, and another rather better preserved abbey. Coventry airport, only used for freight, also sits just within Warwick District. Cubbington is a satellite of Leamington. In the boundary changes Budbrooke ward to the west of Warwick has been added to the seat to bring it up to quota, and curiously, although quite unnecessarily, the rural Radford Semele ward to the east of Leamington has been moved the other way, leaving the seat a strange shape, forming now a doughnut round Warwick & Leamington. This section of the seat, just as up market as Kenilworth town, remains Conservative at a local level.
Just under half of the seat comes from the north-east end of Stratford District. This is as rural as the Midlands get. There are two small towns, Southam and Wellesbourne, both with populations of around 5,000. Neither is very attractive, and Southam could be described as quite rundown, and there is some council housing here. The rest is villages and farms. Many of the villages are decidedly workaday, and far from the picture postcard Cotswold villages to the south and west, although they are not poor. The Oxford canal wends its way through this area, and at the foot of the Cotswold ridge is the vale of the Red Horse. The horse is no longer extant, and its colour reflected the Permo-Triassic sandstones at the foot of the Jurassic Cotswolds. Here also is Edge Hill, site of a famous civil war battle, and to the north the curious grassy outlier of Burton Dassett country park. The M40 cuts through the middle of this area, past the motor museum at the village of Gaydon, where there is a Jaguar Land Rover factory and quite a lot of new housing development. In fact there is quite a lot of development throughout the area in the form of small additions to the villages. Politically at a local level this part of Stratford District shared in the revolution at the 2023 local elections, which saw the Liberal Democrats take control of the council.
Lastly there are 8000 voters from the rural south of Rugby District, who are as middle-class as the rest of the seat, but who are still voting Conservative at local elections. The main feature here is the large Draycote Water reservoir, supplying drinking water to Rugby and Coventry, with the usual associated country park. The Boundary Commission had the opportunity to make Rugby coterminous with its District Council by returning these two wards, but chose on the usual minimal change grounds not to do so.
This was a brand new seat in 2010, when Warwickshire gained a seat. Kenilworth was previously linked with Rugby since 1983, and before then was part of the Warwick seat. The Stratford seat was significantly oversized. It is very safely Conservative with high levels of owner-occupation throughout, and over 40% managerial occupations everywhere except Southam, and over 40% with degrees everywhere except Southam and Wellesbourne. Although Labour were second in the parliamentary seat in 2017, they have no local councillors and no pockets of strength, and the Liberal Democrats seem likely to consolidate their second place, regained in 2019. The minor boundary changes will if anything strengthen the Conservative position. The MP is former Culture Secretary Jeremy Wright, first elected for Rugby & Kenilworth in 2005, when he took the seat from Labour.
Census data: Owner-occupied 77% (29/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (545th), social rented 10% (501st).
: White 93%(240th), Black 1%(357th), South Asian 2%(306th), Mixed 2%(319th), Other 2%(328th)
: Managerial & professional 51% (56th), Routine & Semi-routine 17% (531st)
: Degree level 44%(76th), Minimal qualifications 19%(531st)
: Students 8% (150th), Over 65: 23% (118th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Kenilworth & Southam, 7% from Warwick & Leamington, and 2% from Stratford
93% of the old seat is in the new one, with 6% going to Warwick & Leamington, and 1% to Rugby
Another 10,000 voters come from the rural north of Warwick District. To the west are commuter villages like Hatton at the bottom, and Lapworth at the top, of the large flight of locks that take the Grand Union canal up from the Avon valley onto the central plain of the Midlands. To the east is Stoneleigh, with its National Agricultural Centre, and another rather better preserved abbey. Coventry airport, only used for freight, also sits just within Warwick District. Cubbington is a satellite of Leamington. In the boundary changes Budbrooke ward to the west of Warwick has been added to the seat to bring it up to quota, and curiously, although quite unnecessarily, the rural Radford Semele ward to the east of Leamington has been moved the other way, leaving the seat a strange shape, forming now a doughnut round Warwick & Leamington. This section of the seat, just as up market as Kenilworth town, remains Conservative at a local level.
Just under half of the seat comes from the north-east end of Stratford District. This is as rural as the Midlands get. There are two small towns, Southam and Wellesbourne, both with populations of around 5,000. Neither is very attractive, and Southam could be described as quite rundown, and there is some council housing here. The rest is villages and farms. Many of the villages are decidedly workaday, and far from the picture postcard Cotswold villages to the south and west, although they are not poor. The Oxford canal wends its way through this area, and at the foot of the Cotswold ridge is the vale of the Red Horse. The horse is no longer extant, and its colour reflected the Permo-Triassic sandstones at the foot of the Jurassic Cotswolds. Here also is Edge Hill, site of a famous civil war battle, and to the north the curious grassy outlier of Burton Dassett country park. The M40 cuts through the middle of this area, past the motor museum at the village of Gaydon, where there is a Jaguar Land Rover factory and quite a lot of new housing development. In fact there is quite a lot of development throughout the area in the form of small additions to the villages. Politically at a local level this part of Stratford District shared in the revolution at the 2023 local elections, which saw the Liberal Democrats take control of the council.
Lastly there are 8000 voters from the rural south of Rugby District, who are as middle-class as the rest of the seat, but who are still voting Conservative at local elections. The main feature here is the large Draycote Water reservoir, supplying drinking water to Rugby and Coventry, with the usual associated country park. The Boundary Commission had the opportunity to make Rugby coterminous with its District Council by returning these two wards, but chose on the usual minimal change grounds not to do so.
This was a brand new seat in 2010, when Warwickshire gained a seat. Kenilworth was previously linked with Rugby since 1983, and before then was part of the Warwick seat. The Stratford seat was significantly oversized. It is very safely Conservative with high levels of owner-occupation throughout, and over 40% managerial occupations everywhere except Southam, and over 40% with degrees everywhere except Southam and Wellesbourne. Although Labour were second in the parliamentary seat in 2017, they have no local councillors and no pockets of strength, and the Liberal Democrats seem likely to consolidate their second place, regained in 2019. The minor boundary changes will if anything strengthen the Conservative position. The MP is former Culture Secretary Jeremy Wright, first elected for Rugby & Kenilworth in 2005, when he took the seat from Labour.
Census data: Owner-occupied 77% (29/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (545th), social rented 10% (501st).
: White 93%(240th), Black 1%(357th), South Asian 2%(306th), Mixed 2%(319th), Other 2%(328th)
: Managerial & professional 51% (56th), Routine & Semi-routine 17% (531st)
: Degree level 44%(76th), Minimal qualifications 19%(531st)
: Students 8% (150th), Over 65: 23% (118th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Kenilworth & Southam, 7% from Warwick & Leamington, and 2% from Stratford
93% of the old seat is in the new one, with 6% going to Warwick & Leamington, and 1% to Rugby
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 31,207 | 60.8 | 30,351 | 57.7 | 32,890 | 59.0 |
Labour | 13,121 | 25.6 | 9,440 | 17.9 | 10,587 | 19.0 |
Liberal Democrat | 4,921 | 9.6 | 9,998 | 19.0 | 9,425 | 16.9 |
UKIP/Brexit | 929 | 1.8 | 86 | 0.2 | ||
Green | 1,133 | 2.2 | 2,351 | 4.5 | 2,334 | 4.2 |
Other | 457 | 0.9 | 457 | 0.8 | ||
| Majority | 18,086 | 35.2 | 20,353 | 38.7 | 22,303 | 40.0 |