Post by John Chanin on Oct 6, 2023 9:45:28 GMT
Stratford is of course famous for Shakespeare, but the modern town beside the Avon is quite a substantial place with a population of 30,000, and accounts for just over a quarter of this constituency, which sprawls across the south-west of Warwickshire under the Cotswold escarpment. Packed with tourists in the summer, the town has some quite working class areas outside the centre, particularly in the west of the town, and there is a significant amount of private renting in the town centre and Clopton to the north. Council housing is concentrated to the south of the Avon in Bridgetown. Stratford used to be a close contest between Conservative and Liberal Democrat, with the former dominating in the outer, more modern and suburban parts of the town, but these days the Liberal Democrats win all the town wards in local elections.
The north of the seat is part of the old Forest of Arden, with Tanworth adjoining Solihull borough, and the small market town of Henley, with a surprisingly impressive High Street for its population of 3000. On the west is Studley - really a suburb of Redditch these days, with the Tudor country house of Coughton Court to the south, famous for its links with the Guy Fawkes plotters. In the south-west are the two small towns of Alcester and Bidford-on-Avon, with another small town Welford on the river between Bidford and Stratford. Alcester is an ancient market town with some excellent old architecture in its main street. The last of the small towns is Shipston in the south, in the vale of the Red Horse, alongside the Stour, a tributary of the Avon. In total the small towns add up to much the same electorate as Stratford. The remaining quarter of the population is spread out in small villages and farms, stretching a long way south to the Oxfordshire border near the Rollright Stones, up on the Cotswold escarpment. With the exception of Studley, which votes Liberal Democrat, this is all normally Conservative country, although as in many other well off parts of the country, they suffered a serious defeat at the 2023 local elections, with the Greens winning in Shipston, and the Liberal Democrats taking control of the council. Outside Stratford town there are over 40% managerial workers everywhere, many commuting to Birmingham, some by means of the commuter railway line that links Stratford with the city. Unusually as well as being a well educated seat, it also is an old seat, with over 65s in the top 60.
The local Liberal Democrat strength is reflected to some degree in the General Election results, where they normally achieve a respectable second place, albeit well behind the Conservatives. There is really no Labour presence here, and they have no councillors on Stratford District Council. The MP since 2010 is Kurdish born businessman Nadhim Zahawi, a former London councillor, and a rather unexpected choice for this constituency, previously represented by John Profumo and Angus Maude. They were succeeded by defector to Labour Alan Howarth, whose moderation reflected much of the electorate. Stratford District only voted leave at the referendum narrowly, and the seat is a Midlands equivalent of the well off Home Counties seats where the Conservative Party is currently quite unpopular. Warwickshire in general, and this seat in particular, required little change at the latest boundary review, and realignment to new ward boundaries simply shifted 1400 voters in the vale of the Red Horse to Kenilworth & Southam.
Census data: Owner-occupied 72% (125/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (447th), social rented 13% (378th).
: White 95%(170th), Black 0%(502nd), South Asian 1%(373rd), Mixed 2%(374th), Other 1%(395th)
: Managerial & professional 46% (122nd), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (472nd)
: Degree level 39%(126th), Minimal qualifications 24%(440th)
: Students 4% (535th), Over 65: 26% (52nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Stratford-on-Avon
98% of the old seat is in the new one, with 2% going to Kenilworth &Southam
The north of the seat is part of the old Forest of Arden, with Tanworth adjoining Solihull borough, and the small market town of Henley, with a surprisingly impressive High Street for its population of 3000. On the west is Studley - really a suburb of Redditch these days, with the Tudor country house of Coughton Court to the south, famous for its links with the Guy Fawkes plotters. In the south-west are the two small towns of Alcester and Bidford-on-Avon, with another small town Welford on the river between Bidford and Stratford. Alcester is an ancient market town with some excellent old architecture in its main street. The last of the small towns is Shipston in the south, in the vale of the Red Horse, alongside the Stour, a tributary of the Avon. In total the small towns add up to much the same electorate as Stratford. The remaining quarter of the population is spread out in small villages and farms, stretching a long way south to the Oxfordshire border near the Rollright Stones, up on the Cotswold escarpment. With the exception of Studley, which votes Liberal Democrat, this is all normally Conservative country, although as in many other well off parts of the country, they suffered a serious defeat at the 2023 local elections, with the Greens winning in Shipston, and the Liberal Democrats taking control of the council. Outside Stratford town there are over 40% managerial workers everywhere, many commuting to Birmingham, some by means of the commuter railway line that links Stratford with the city. Unusually as well as being a well educated seat, it also is an old seat, with over 65s in the top 60.
The local Liberal Democrat strength is reflected to some degree in the General Election results, where they normally achieve a respectable second place, albeit well behind the Conservatives. There is really no Labour presence here, and they have no councillors on Stratford District Council. The MP since 2010 is Kurdish born businessman Nadhim Zahawi, a former London councillor, and a rather unexpected choice for this constituency, previously represented by John Profumo and Angus Maude. They were succeeded by defector to Labour Alan Howarth, whose moderation reflected much of the electorate. Stratford District only voted leave at the referendum narrowly, and the seat is a Midlands equivalent of the well off Home Counties seats where the Conservative Party is currently quite unpopular. Warwickshire in general, and this seat in particular, required little change at the latest boundary review, and realignment to new ward boundaries simply shifted 1400 voters in the vale of the Red Horse to Kenilworth & Southam.
Census data: Owner-occupied 72% (125/575 in England & Wales), private rented 15% (447th), social rented 13% (378th).
: White 95%(170th), Black 0%(502nd), South Asian 1%(373rd), Mixed 2%(374th), Other 1%(395th)
: Managerial & professional 46% (122nd), Routine & Semi-routine 21% (472nd)
: Degree level 39%(126th), Minimal qualifications 24%(440th)
: Students 4% (535th), Over 65: 26% (52nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Stratford-on-Avon
98% of the old seat is in the new one, with 2% going to Kenilworth &Southam
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 32,657 | 64.4 | 33,343 | 60.6 | 32.236 | 60.2 |
Labour | 11,699 | 23.1 | 6,222 | 11.3 | 6,074 | 11.3 |
Liberal Democrat | 6,357 | 12.5 | 13,371 | 24.3 | 13,216 | 24.7 |
Green | 2,112 | 3.8 | 2,031 | 3.8 | ||
| Majority | 20,958 | 41.3 | 19,972 | 36.3 | 19,020 | 35.5 |