Post by froome on Oct 4, 2023 9:17:56 GMT
This constituency covers the area between Bristol and Bath, and covers a mixture of Bristol suburbia, small towns and a large rural swathe between Bristol and the Mendips. In population terms, just under half live within South Gloucestershire and just over half live in Bath and North East Somerset, though the latter area is by far the largest in area. The South Gloucestershire population currently make up the southern half of Kingswood constituency, and the Bath and North East Somerset population currently make up the western half of North East Somerset constituency.
The nearest equivalent historic constituency was the latter version of Wansdyke, which existed between 1997 and 2010, with probably about 85% of the population covered by both constituencies.
In parliamentary terms, the two current constituencies from which this constituency has been formed have had similar voting records. Since both their formations in 2010, they have always elected Conservative MPs, whose majorities have generally risen - from 2,445 to 11,220 in Kingswood and from 4,914 to 14,729 in North East Somerset. However, in local election terms, their political direction has been very different. Prior to 2010, Wansdyke constituency elected Labour MPs at each election from 1997, whose majorities ranged from 5,113 in 2001 to 1,839 in 2005. Had Wansdyke constituency continued into 2010, it may well have then become a narrow Conservative gain.
The South Gloucestershire half of the constituency is made up of 4 local authority wards - Bitton & Oldland Common, Hanham, Longwell Green and Parkwall & Warmley. Most of this area consists of post-war suburban expansion of the Bristol conurbation into what is now South Gloucestershire. Historically, much of this area was part of the Bristol coalfield, and had an industrial base while being mostly a rural area. However, in the last 50 years the area has changed radically into large estates of mostly private housing, and the only large rural area left here is the Cotswold edge north of Bitton. Bitton is still a separate village from the rest of this area, while both Hanham and Warmley were large villages on the edge of Kingswood, which still retain some aspect of their former village aspects, but are conjoined with the rest of this area into a continuous urban spread.
The 4 South Gloucestershire wards have an almost complete record of voting Conservative, the only exception being that in 2023, Labour won one of the 3 seats in Hanham, just beating the third Conservative candidate. Labour have generally come in second place in all 4, with the Liberal Democrats and others usually finishing well behind. However, in 2023, the Liberal Democrats did manage to beat Labour in Longwell Green, where both parties only fielded one candidate for a two seat ward.
The Bath and North East Somerset half of the constituency is covered by 11 wards, electing 17 councillors (19 in 2015 before the boundary review which reduced the number of wards and councillors). 3 of the wards, all 2 seaters, are in Keynsham, the largest town in the constituency, which also used to have an industrial base, though not in mining, and is now mainly a commuter town for both Bristol and Bath. Saltford, east of Keynsham, is a large commuter village with an attractive riverside setting. South of these is a large hilly, rural area made up of mostly wealthy villages that are home to many commuters as well as an agricultural economy. In the far south-east of the constituency, are two villages that were originally part of the Somerset coalfield - Timsbury and Paulton.
Unlike South Gloucestershire, this area has seen an enormous change in its politics at local government level. In 2015, its 19 councillors were made up of 16 Conservatives, 2 Labour (in Paulton) and 1 Independent (in Timsbury). By 2023, its 17 councillors consisted of 12 Liberal Democrats, 3 Labour, 1 Green and 1 Conservative. The Conservatives lost all their rural seats, to Liberal Democrats and one Green, and all their urban seats, in Keynsham, to Liberal Democrats and one Labour. Timsbury's Independent had stood down, and that seat was also easily won by the Liberal Democrats. Labour easily retained their hold on Paulton.
The next election should be fascinating, as the two halves of the constituency are very different in their nature, and are moving in very different ways in local government terms. This means that all three main parties will retain a competitive interest, and this will be heightened with Jacob Rees-Mogg being the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives should certainly be favourites, even in a bad year for them. However, if it is a very bad year, then the constituency will be marginal, and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats will want to seize their opportunity. Labour should be competitive in the South Gloucestershire half while the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to turn their dominance in 2023's local elections in the North East Somerset half into parliamnetary votes. Both will also need to convince the other party's voters to back them, as well as those from the Greens and other parties. Keynsham may prove to be the key - whichever of the three main parties can win the town's votes should be in a good position to win the constituency.
The nearest equivalent historic constituency was the latter version of Wansdyke, which existed between 1997 and 2010, with probably about 85% of the population covered by both constituencies.
In parliamentary terms, the two current constituencies from which this constituency has been formed have had similar voting records. Since both their formations in 2010, they have always elected Conservative MPs, whose majorities have generally risen - from 2,445 to 11,220 in Kingswood and from 4,914 to 14,729 in North East Somerset. However, in local election terms, their political direction has been very different. Prior to 2010, Wansdyke constituency elected Labour MPs at each election from 1997, whose majorities ranged from 5,113 in 2001 to 1,839 in 2005. Had Wansdyke constituency continued into 2010, it may well have then become a narrow Conservative gain.
The South Gloucestershire half of the constituency is made up of 4 local authority wards - Bitton & Oldland Common, Hanham, Longwell Green and Parkwall & Warmley. Most of this area consists of post-war suburban expansion of the Bristol conurbation into what is now South Gloucestershire. Historically, much of this area was part of the Bristol coalfield, and had an industrial base while being mostly a rural area. However, in the last 50 years the area has changed radically into large estates of mostly private housing, and the only large rural area left here is the Cotswold edge north of Bitton. Bitton is still a separate village from the rest of this area, while both Hanham and Warmley were large villages on the edge of Kingswood, which still retain some aspect of their former village aspects, but are conjoined with the rest of this area into a continuous urban spread.
The 4 South Gloucestershire wards have an almost complete record of voting Conservative, the only exception being that in 2023, Labour won one of the 3 seats in Hanham, just beating the third Conservative candidate. Labour have generally come in second place in all 4, with the Liberal Democrats and others usually finishing well behind. However, in 2023, the Liberal Democrats did manage to beat Labour in Longwell Green, where both parties only fielded one candidate for a two seat ward.
The Bath and North East Somerset half of the constituency is covered by 11 wards, electing 17 councillors (19 in 2015 before the boundary review which reduced the number of wards and councillors). 3 of the wards, all 2 seaters, are in Keynsham, the largest town in the constituency, which also used to have an industrial base, though not in mining, and is now mainly a commuter town for both Bristol and Bath. Saltford, east of Keynsham, is a large commuter village with an attractive riverside setting. South of these is a large hilly, rural area made up of mostly wealthy villages that are home to many commuters as well as an agricultural economy. In the far south-east of the constituency, are two villages that were originally part of the Somerset coalfield - Timsbury and Paulton.
Unlike South Gloucestershire, this area has seen an enormous change in its politics at local government level. In 2015, its 19 councillors were made up of 16 Conservatives, 2 Labour (in Paulton) and 1 Independent (in Timsbury). By 2023, its 17 councillors consisted of 12 Liberal Democrats, 3 Labour, 1 Green and 1 Conservative. The Conservatives lost all their rural seats, to Liberal Democrats and one Green, and all their urban seats, in Keynsham, to Liberal Democrats and one Labour. Timsbury's Independent had stood down, and that seat was also easily won by the Liberal Democrats. Labour easily retained their hold on Paulton.
The next election should be fascinating, as the two halves of the constituency are very different in their nature, and are moving in very different ways in local government terms. This means that all three main parties will retain a competitive interest, and this will be heightened with Jacob Rees-Mogg being the Conservative candidate. The Conservatives should certainly be favourites, even in a bad year for them. However, if it is a very bad year, then the constituency will be marginal, and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats will want to seize their opportunity. Labour should be competitive in the South Gloucestershire half while the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to turn their dominance in 2023's local elections in the North East Somerset half into parliamnetary votes. Both will also need to convince the other party's voters to back them, as well as those from the Greens and other parties. Keynsham may prove to be the key - whichever of the three main parties can win the town's votes should be in a good position to win the constituency.
