Post by John Chanin on Oct 2, 2023 14:16:49 GMT
Stafford is an old town as might be guessed from the fact that it has a county named after it. It has an early Norman castle perched on a hill to the west of the modern town (motte and bailey), and indeed a Mercian prehistory . It has a population of 70,000, and geographically it sits at the junction of the rivers Sow and Penk, just a few miles to the west of the Trent. More recently it developed as an industrial town, helped by its position as a railway junction, and is distinctly better off than the Staffordshire towns to the south. It is also noticeably more middle-class with managerial workers exceeding routine workers in the town as a whole, and much higher educational qualifications. As the location of Staffordshire county council (as well as Stafford District Council) there are a lot of public sector workers in the town which affects its politics. However there is no university here, perhaps surprisingly. Like many towns it is socially divided. To the south-east between the rivers there are extensive modern housing estates, all private, in Baswich, Wildwood, and Weeping Cross. Development continues on the outskirts of town on all sides. In the north of the town there are council estates, with the usual right to buy, interspersed with modest private housing. The small ethnic minority population is concentrated here, in Coton ward. But the big concentration of council housing, and decidedly more working class, is the south west of the town, with large estates in the Highfields and Moss Pit areas. The town centre is older, with pre-war and Victorian housing, and high levels of private renting. Lastly there are the quaint early Victorian cottages of Castletown, alongside the Doxey marshes (a nature reserve) on the north-west outskirts. Politically the town leans towards Labour. 6 of the 12 wards are normally Labour held - the 3 in the north east of the town, and the 3 in the south-west. The city centre ward of Forebrook is politically competitive, with Greens, Liberal Democrats and Independents, but has little Conservative vote. The Conservatives have only 3 safe wards - the two in the south-east , and Rowley, which is up market private housing to the west of the city centre. Only Holmcroft and Castletown in the north-west are really marginal. As in several other areas the Greens have been making progress at local elections and won two wards on the west of the town in 2023.
However the town only accounts for two-thirds of the seat. The other third is changed in the latest boundaries. Out go 12,000 voters to the south, from the town of Penkridge and its neighbouring rural area, which are in South Staffordshire District. And out go another 10,000 voters from the Sow and Trent valleys to the east of the town. In exchange Stafford gains an expansive rural area to the north-west of the town along the Shropshire border, extending right up into Newcastle District. This is pleasant partly wooded rolling agricultural country, with nothing more than villages, although Eccleshall, despite a population of less than 5000, has the amenities of a town. The other larger villages in the area have quite a lot of new development - Gnosall to the south and delightfully named Loggerheads to the north. This amounts to 19,000 voters, who were all formerly in the abolished Stone constituency. This returns the Stafford seat to similar boundaries that it had before the creation of Stone in 1997. All of these areas vote Conservative at national elections, but with slightly less of them there may be a small boost to Labour prospects.
Overall the Conservatism of the rural areas normally outweighs Labour strength in the town. The demographic data below shows that the seat as a whole is accordingly on the middle-class side of average, but not overwhelmingly so. Like many similar seats Stafford was gained by Labour in the 1997 landslide for the first time since 1945 (famously the defeated Conservative candidate was one David Cameron). Labour did well to hold it in 2005, but was comfortably defeated in 2010. The MP who won it from Labour stood down before the 2019 election, and the new MP is Theodora Clarke, an aristocrat from Gloucestershire and an art historian. She has been readopted for the much changed seat, but not entirely without opposition.
Census data: Owner-occupied 68% (222/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (346th), social rented 15% (294th).
: White 92%(255th), Black 1%(290th), South Asian 2%(303rd), Mixed 2%(314th), Other 2%(307th)
: Managerial & professional 41% (219th), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (316th)
: Degree level 34%(232nd), Minimal qualifications 26%(357th)
: Students 5% (408th), Over 65: 22% (165th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 73% from Stafford and 27% from Stone
70% of the old seat is in the new one, with 30% going to Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge
However the town only accounts for two-thirds of the seat. The other third is changed in the latest boundaries. Out go 12,000 voters to the south, from the town of Penkridge and its neighbouring rural area, which are in South Staffordshire District. And out go another 10,000 voters from the Sow and Trent valleys to the east of the town. In exchange Stafford gains an expansive rural area to the north-west of the town along the Shropshire border, extending right up into Newcastle District. This is pleasant partly wooded rolling agricultural country, with nothing more than villages, although Eccleshall, despite a population of less than 5000, has the amenities of a town. The other larger villages in the area have quite a lot of new development - Gnosall to the south and delightfully named Loggerheads to the north. This amounts to 19,000 voters, who were all formerly in the abolished Stone constituency. This returns the Stafford seat to similar boundaries that it had before the creation of Stone in 1997. All of these areas vote Conservative at national elections, but with slightly less of them there may be a small boost to Labour prospects.
Overall the Conservatism of the rural areas normally outweighs Labour strength in the town. The demographic data below shows that the seat as a whole is accordingly on the middle-class side of average, but not overwhelmingly so. Like many similar seats Stafford was gained by Labour in the 1997 landslide for the first time since 1945 (famously the defeated Conservative candidate was one David Cameron). Labour did well to hold it in 2005, but was comfortably defeated in 2010. The MP who won it from Labour stood down before the 2019 election, and the new MP is Theodora Clarke, an aristocrat from Gloucestershire and an art historian. She has been readopted for the much changed seat, but not entirely without opposition.
Census data: Owner-occupied 68% (222/575 in England & Wales), private rented 17% (346th), social rented 15% (294th).
: White 92%(255th), Black 1%(290th), South Asian 2%(303rd), Mixed 2%(314th), Other 2%(307th)
: Managerial & professional 41% (219th), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (316th)
: Degree level 34%(232nd), Minimal qualifications 26%(357th)
: Students 5% (408th), Over 65: 22% (165th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 73% from Stafford and 27% from Stone
70% of the old seat is in the new one, with 30% going to Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 28,424 | 54.7 | 29,992 | 58.6 | 29,731 | 57.9 |
Labour | 20,695 | 39.9 | 15,615 | 30.5 | 16,011 | 31.2 |
Liberal Democrat | 1,540 | 3.0 | 3,175 | 6.2 | 3,272 | 6.4 |
Green | 1,265 | 2.4 | 2,367 | 4.6 | 2,297 | 4.5 |
| Majority | 7,729 | 14.9 | 14,377 | 28.1 | 13,720 | 26.7 |