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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 29, 2023 8:50:04 GMT
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Post by willpower3 on Sept 29, 2023 9:54:14 GMT
If the Tories are losing seats such as Tatton and Ruislip, Northwood, and Pinner then they aren't going to be near 200 seats.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 29, 2023 12:22:13 GMT
Strange to see the SNP hold Edinburgh North & Leith, all six Glasgow seats and Paisley & Renfrewshire South fairly comfortably while Labour gain seats like Cumbernauld, Livingston and Glenrothes where the SNP tend to have stronger majorities.
The 2022 council election also saw Labour perform better around Glasgow, so I would take these figures with a pinch of salt.
Not only that, the projection suggests the SNP will gain votes in large parts of Glasgow.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 29, 2023 12:45:53 GMT
Their MRP also seems very pessimistic about Labour chances in Kent and East Anglia, and very optimistic about Labour in the north-west.
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Post by borisminor on Sept 29, 2023 14:40:58 GMT
If the Tories are losing seats such as Tatton and Ruislip, Northwood, and Pinner then they aren't going to be near 200 seats. Ditto if they lose a seat such as Wetherby and Easingwold which this MRP (with only a 2,000 sample size) has. |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 29, 2023 20:15:40 GMT
Also, the last 2000 'batch' was sampled the end of August.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Sept 30, 2023 7:56:15 GMT
Their MRP also seems very pessimistic about Labour chances in Kent and East Anglia, and very optimistic about Labour in the north-west. Not just Kent, but the whole South East region (as well as the East). This is a world where Labour is winning Chester South & Eddisbury, Tatton, Wetherby & Easingwold, North Shropshire, Kenilworth & Southam, Hereford & South Herefordshire, Sutton Coldfield and Aldridge-Brownhills but only winning the two Milton Keynes seats by 109 (Central) and 246 (North) votes and I think those two and Wycombe are its only Labour gains in the region. The SW is a little underwhelming for Labour too by the standards of some projections but it does have Labour gaining both Bournemouth seats, Stroud, Gloucester, Swindon South, Filton & Sadly Broke, Plymouth Moor View, Camborne & Redruth, Truro & Falmouth and North East Somerset & Hanham, which I don't think would be seen as a bad haul in this region (especially the last named). It's also one of the better MRPs for the Lib Dems. You do of course get regional patterns in General Elections but the divide here particularly between the SE and East one one hand and the NW and West Midlands on the other looks too strong to me. MRPs seem a bit prone to this. |
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2023 8:34:15 GMT
My immediate thought when I saw the heading of this new thread was "why the hell has someone done a poll just of the town of Stonehaven?". Then I read it & all became clear
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2023 8:57:09 GMT
Labour's overall vote in this survey was just under 40%, which does seem a bit low.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 30, 2023 9:22:09 GMT
Labour's overall vote in this survey was just under 40%, which does seem a bit low. It seems extremely low given some of the improbable Labour gains. Though then again, their Green vote share seems absurdly high - often reaching double figures even in seats where they have no obvious strength. |
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2023 17:59:51 GMT
No other current polling has Labour's vote as low as that, or even that nearly as much.
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 1, 2023 10:51:13 GMT
Their MRP also seems very pessimistic about Labour chances in Kent and East Anglia, and very optimistic about Labour in the north-west. that doesn't seem unreasonable |
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Post by batman on Oct 1, 2023 11:57:45 GMT
In terms of seats won, perhaps you're right. There are no easy Labour gains in Kent, only seats that would fall in landslide conditions. On the other hand Labour did very well in the local elections in Kent this year, perhaps rather less so in East Anglia.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 1, 2023 12:33:42 GMT
In terms of seats won, perhaps you're right. There are no easy Labour gains in Kent, only seats that would fall in landslide conditions. On the other hand Labour did very well in the local elections in Kent this year, perhaps rather less so in East Anglia. Thanet, Dover and Ashford could pose problems, and the cut back Maidstone is less secure but protected by Lab-LD contest. |
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Post by batman on Oct 1, 2023 13:15:48 GMT
Thanet is definitely very losable by the Conservatives & as you say the redrawn Ashford is a better bet for Labour than the larger seat which currently exists. But any Labour gain in Kent would require a pretty big swing with Thanet the best bet.
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Post by kevinf on Oct 1, 2023 16:28:04 GMT
Thanet is definitely very losable by the Conservatives & as you say the redrawn Ashford is a better bet for Labour than the larger seat which currently exists. But any Labour gain in Kent would require a pretty big swing with Thanet the best bet. …and Medway towns are in play - though still long shots - following the local election results. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 1, 2023 16:53:28 GMT
Thanet is definitely very losable by the Conservatives & as you say the redrawn Ashford is a better bet for Labour than the larger seat which currently exists. But any Labour gain in Kent would require a pretty big swing with Thanet the best bet. …and Medway towns are in play - though still long shots - following the local election results. Medway looks to be a poisoned chalice now. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 1, 2023 20:54:25 GMT
Thanet is definitely very losable by the Conservatives & as you say the redrawn Ashford is a better bet for Labour than the larger seat which currently exists. But any Labour gain in Kent would require a pretty big swing with Thanet the best bet. …and Medway towns are in play - though still long shots - following the local election results. No. I don't think so. |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 15, 2024 15:29:13 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 15, 2024 15:33:26 GMT
It’s odd that they should do a VI poll after the election having not done a single one during the campaign. |
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