haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on Oct 19, 2023 8:22:02 GMT
Lab 45.9
Con 40.2
Grn 4.2
REF 3.9
LD 2.9
UKIP 1.3
Longman 0.7
MRLP 0.5
Britain First 0.4
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Post by aargauer on Oct 19, 2023 10:42:50 GMT
Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 2.6%
Andy Cooper (Con) 36.5%
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 3.2%
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 49.8%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.3%
Sue Howarth (Green) 2.8%
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.2%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.2%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 4.4%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 18:31:04 GMT
Reminder competition closes at 10pm
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Post by froome on Oct 19, 2023 20:22:49 GMT
Another entry for latest entry:
Labour 45.9
Conservative 39.6
Lib Dem 5.2
Reform 5.0
Green 2.6
UKIP 0.7
OMRLP 0.4
Longman 0.3
Britain First 0.3
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 20:37:53 GMT
All 19 predictions accepted.
Final Call Competition closes at 10pm tonight.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2023 20:45:36 GMT
Lab 43.9%
Con 43.7%
Reform 5.0% (just above -> deposit saved)
LD 4.1%
Green 1.8%
UKIP 0.5%
Longman 0.4%
OMRLP 0.4%
Britain First 0.2%
Turnout: 39.2%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 20:54:19 GMT
All 20 predictions accepted.
Final Final Call, Competition closes at 10pm tonight.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:02:03 GMT
competition closed
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:06:10 GMT
Prediction Ranges Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) 0.20% by nyx to 2.60% by aargauer a range of 2.40%
Andy Cooper (Con) 32.70% by nyx to 44.40% by DHAA a range of 11.70%
Ian Stuart Cooper (Reform UK) 1.80% by DHAA to 6.70% by bigfatron a range of 4.90%
Sarah Siena Edwards (Lab) 41.00% by kevinf to 57.50% by nyx a range of 16.50%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.20% by 5 predictors to 0.90% by doktorb a range of 0.70%
Sue Howarth (Green) 1.50% by nn2019 to 5.00% by kevinf a range of 3.50%
Peter George Longman (no descripton) 0.10% by 7 predictors to 0.80% by greenhert a range of 0.70%
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 0.10% by nn2019 & Tony Otim to 1.10% by doktorb a range of 1.00%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 2.10% by nyx to 10.00% by kevinf a range of 7.40%
Winner Predictions
16 out of 20 predict a Labour win over the Conservatives ranging from 0.20% by Andrew_S to 24.80% by nyx a range of 3.30%
greenhert, johnloony, peterl, nn2019, YL, kevinf, batman, Tony Otim, LDCaerdydd, nyx, manchesterman, bigfatron, haribo, aargauer, froome, Andrew_S
4 out of 20 predict a Conservative win over Labour ranging from 0.20% by DHAA to 2.30% by doktorb a range of 2.10%
pete whitehead, doktorb, weld, DHAA
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 19, 2023 21:11:48 GMT
And as I said in Bedfordshire Mid, too close to call between a marginal Labour GAIN (majority of less than 400) to a Conservative HOLD (by a similar margin) |
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Post by batman on Oct 19, 2023 21:22:27 GMT
why not enter the competition if you're going to make predictions?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:23:58 GMT
why not enter the competition if you're going to make predictions?
Maybe he doesn't want to create me extra work.  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 20, 2023 9:36:03 GMT
Tamworth By-Election Prediction Competition Result
Final Points Tony Otim 8.4
manchesterman 8.8
froome 9.4
YL 9.8
haribo 9.8
greenhert 10.6
nn2019 11.4
Andrew_S 11.6
bigfatron 11.8
johnloony 12.6
peterl 13.2
batman 14
aargauer 17.8
Pete Whitehead 20
LDCaerdydd 20.2
weld 20.2
doktorb 21.6
kevinf 23.6
DHAA 24.6
nyx 25.8
Points before penalties
Tony Otim 8.4
manchesterman 8.8
froome 9.4
YL 9.8
haribo 9.8
greenhert 10.6
nn2019 11.4
Andrew_S 11.6
bigfatron 11.8
johnloony 12.6
Pete Whitehead 13
weld 13.2
peterl 13.2
batman 14
doktorb 14.6
DHAA 17.6
aargauer 17.8
LDCaerdydd 20.2
kevinf 23.6
nyx 25.8
Percentages used taken from the Tamworth by-election thread and they added up to 100.
Thanks to all who took part. DHAA
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:51:05 GMT
congratulations Tony. And thanks for looking after the competition DHAA.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 9:59:12 GMT
I think Britain First polling that many votes cost me the title!  |
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Post by froome on Oct 20, 2023 10:16:25 GMT
I think Britain First polling that many votes cost me the title! And me. I massively underestimated the peel off of Tory votes to the far right, as I assumed they would mostly go to Reform. |
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