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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 4, 2023 9:09:22 GMT
It doesn't really matter how they are listed. They way you did it by ballot paper alphabetical order is slightly easier as that is the way my spreadsheet is set up.
Entry accepted.
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haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on Oct 5, 2023 12:24:55 GMT
Labour - 51.6
SNP - 30.4
Conservative - 7.4
Green - 3.7
Liberal Democrats - 2.6
Reform UK - 1.2
Independence for Scotland - 0.6
Volt - 0.6
TUSC - 0.5
Scottish Socialist - 0.5
Scottish Family Party - 0.4
Independent (Daly) - 0.2
Garry Cooke (no description) - 0.2
Prince Ankit Love (no description) - 0.1
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Post by grumpyguy on Oct 5, 2023 13:46:43 GMT
In surname order,
Adebo 4.9;
Bonnar 0.5;
Cooke 0.1;
Daly 0.1;
Eadie 2.4;
Emperor 0.1;
Fraser 0.3;
Hoyle 0.1;
Kerr 7.4;
Loudon 36.7;
Semanni 0.6;
Shanks 44.5;
Stark 2.1;
Walker 0.2.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Oct 5, 2023 14:35:43 GMT
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 2.4
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 1.3
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.2
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.1
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 3.2
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 1.4
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.6
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 9.7
Katy Loudon (SNP) 38.6
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 1.0
Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.5
David Stark (Reform UK) 1.5
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 1.4
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 5, 2023 18:58:21 GMT
2 hours to deadline, final predictions call.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 5, 2023 20:00:14 GMT
almost forgot!
Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 4.1
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 1.2
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.1
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.2
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 3.9
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.6
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.2
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 9.9
Katy Loudon (SNP) 36.4
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 1.0
Michael Shanks (Lab) 40.1
David Stark (Reform UK) 1.6
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.6
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 5, 2023 20:15:40 GMT
All 18 entries have been accepted into the competition.
Still open for entries until 10pm tonight.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 5, 2023 21:01:35 GMT
Competition now closed for entries, I will post the result sometime tomorrow.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 6, 2023 1:45:37 GMT
Prediction Ranges Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 1.10% by YL to 6.00% by weld a range of 4.90%
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.80%
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.00% by nn2019 to 0.90% by LDCaerdydd a range of 0.90%
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.90%
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 1.80% by nn2019 to 11.00% by kevinf a range of 9.20%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.00% by 5 predictors to 0.40% by batman a range of 0.40%
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.10% by weld to 1.50% by docktorb a range of 1.40%
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 0.80% by docktorb a range of 0.70%
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 6.00% by ntyuk1707 to 13.30% by nn2019 a range of 7.30%
Katy Loudon (SNP) 24.50% by kevinf to 38.70% by DHAA a range of 14.20%
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 3.70% by docktorb a range of 3.60%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.10% by doktorb to 52.00% by ntyuk1707 a range of 13.90%
David Stark (Reform UK) 0.30% by YL to 4.90% by docktorb a range of 4.60%
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 2.90% by YL a range of 2.80%
Winning margin prediction range
17 out of 18 predict a Labour win over SNP ranging from 1.10% by DHAA to 21.20% by haribo a range of 17.20% 1 out of 18 predict a SNP win over Labour by 0.1% by nyx
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 6, 2023 1:53:07 GMT
In a high scoring contest, as the Labour blowout win went generally unanticipated, congratulations go to the Rutherglan and Hamilton West By-Election Prediction Competition winner haribo
Completing the podium are in 2nd ntyuk1707 and in 3rd @weld , well done to both.
Final Result was haribo 17.3
ntyuk1707 19.5
weld 23.5
johnloony 24.1
Tony Otim 24.5
YL 27.1
greenhert 29.9
grumpyguy 31.8
LDCaerdydd 31.9
Pete Whitehead 33.7
batman 35.7
nn2019 38.1
manchesterman 38.1
peterl 39.7
DHAA 40.9
doktorb 42.3
kevinf 44.7
nyx 48.5
Based on the percentages posted by David Boothroyd, which add up to 100.1
Percentages before Penalties
haribo 17.3
ntyuk1707 19.5
weld 23.5
johnloony 24.1
Tony Otim 24.5
YL 27.1
greenhert 29.9
grumpyguy 31.8
LDCaerdydd 31.9
Pete Whitehead 33.7
batman 35.7
nn2019 38.1
manchesterman 38.1
peterl 39.7
DHAA 40.9 nyx 41.5 doktorb 42.3
kevinf 44.7
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 6, 2023 2:09:11 GMT
haribo, I think we are in the presence of near anonymous greatness.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2023 6:27:21 GMT
Prediction Ranges Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 1.10% by YL to 6.00% by weld a range of 4.90%
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.80%
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.00% by nn2019 to 0.90% by LDCaerdydd a range of 0.90%
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.90%
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 1.80% by nn2019 to 11.00% by kevinf a range of 9.20%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.00% by 5 predictors to 0.40% by batman a range of 0.40%
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.10% by weld to 1.50% by docktorb a range of 1.40%
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 0.80% by docktorb a range of 0.70%
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 6.00% by ntyuk1707 to 13.30% by nn2019 a range of 7.30%
Katy Loudon (SNP) 24.50% by kevinf to 38.70% by DHAA a range of 14.20%
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 3.70% by docktorb a range of 3.60%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.10% by doktorb to 52.00% by ntyuk1707 a range of 13.90%
David Stark (Reform UK) 0.30% by YL to 4.90% by docktorb a range of 4.60%
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 2.90% by YL a range of 2.80%
Winning margin prediction range
18 out of 18 predict a Labour win over SNP ranging from 1.10% by DHAA to 21.20% by haribo a range of 17.20%
I think you will find a prediction of a win by SNP if you look closely- how has that been missed , or was it in my imagination? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 6, 2023 6:35:09 GMT
Prediction Ranges Gloria Adebo (Lib Dem) 1.10% by YL to 6.00% by weld a range of 4.90%
Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) 0.20% by 3 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.80%
Garry Patrick Cooke (no description) 0.00% by nn2019 to 0.90% by LDCaerdydd a range of 0.90%
Andrew Vincent Daly (Independent) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 2.00% by kevinf a range of 1.90%
Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green) 1.80% by nn2019 to 11.00% by kevinf a range of 9.20%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.00% by 5 predictors to 0.40% by batman a range of 0.40%
Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) 0.10% by weld to 1.50% by docktorb a range of 1.40%
Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) 0.10% by 5 predictors to 0.80% by docktorb a range of 0.70%
Thomas Jordan Kerr (Con) 6.00% by ntyuk1707 to 13.30% by nn2019 a range of 7.30%
Katy Loudon (SNP) 24.50% by kevinf to 38.70% by DHAA a range of 14.20%
Christopher Anthony Sermanni (TUSC) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 3.70% by docktorb a range of 3.60%
Michael Shanks (Lab) 38.10% by doktorb to 52.00% by ntyuk1707 a range of 13.90%
David Stark (Reform UK) 0.30% by YL to 4.90% by docktorb a range of 4.60%
Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 2.90% by YL a range of 2.80%
Winning margin prediction range
18 out of 18 predict a Labour win over SNP ranging from 1.10% by DHAA to 21.20% by haribo a range of 17.20%
I think you will find a prediction of a win by SNP if you look closely- how has that been missed , or was it in my imagination?
You are correct, shouldn't post at 3am.
Original post altered.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 6, 2023 6:41:34 GMT
This is why I don't place bets.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Oct 6, 2023 11:42:42 GMT
I had been expecting a narrow Labour victory but had thought there was about a 30% chance of an SNP victory, so decided to put that into the prediction competition because I had thought that my best chance of winning the competition was taking that shot.
Needless to say I was quite a long way off.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 6, 2023 13:08:26 GMT
haribo , I think we are in the presence of near anonymous greatness. winning on only their 7th post on the forum is indeed a fun-sized treat  |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 16, 2023 13:08:55 GMT
I'm not very good with doing things on spreadsheets (including not very good at doing graphs) but I made this attempt to show our predictions for the Rutherglen by-election, compared with the actual result: (My original idea was to have the dots for each party in one vertical column, with one column for each party, and a bigger blob for the result compared with the prediction. But I couldn't work out how to do the graph that way)  |
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