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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 2, 2024 22:39:45 GMT
Edinburgh South ............ first emerged as a safe Unionist seat at the 1918 general election, and stuck with the Conservative & Unionists until the election of Labour's Nigel Griffiths at the 1987 general election, from which point onwards the seat was represented by Labour MPs. In 2001, the Liberal Democrats overtook the Conservatives as the primary challengers to Labour here, Basically, this tracks the path of working in the public sector becoming a high-paying job. Edinburgh South did not become any less privileged. Nor any less privately educated. Nor less home owning. Now any less educating their own children privately. The same people or rather the children of the same people switched from voting Tory to voting Labour, then SNP in accordance with their own troughing self-interest. As some-one who has worked in both the public sector and the private sector, currently public, in Scotland since 1988, I am struggling with the "high-paying job" bit. The private sector always pays more for equivalent jobs, in my experience in the IT and IT-adjacent areas. In 2022/23, with inflation at 10%, I got a zero pay rise. Last year, a member of my team left, for an equivalent job to his in the private sector, for a 50% pay rise, and free beer! |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 3, 2024 7:45:04 GMT
Basically, this tracks the path of working in the public sector becoming a high-paying job. Edinburgh South did not become any less privileged. Nor any less privately educated. Nor less home owning. Now any less educating their own children privately. The same people or rather the children of the same people switched from voting Tory to voting Labour, then SNP in accordance with their own troughing self-interest. As some-one who has worked in both the public sector and the private sector, currently public, in Scotland since 1988, I am struggling with the "high-paying job" bit. The private sector always pays more for equivalent jobs, in my experience in the IT and IT-adjacent areas. In 2022/23, with inflation at 10%, I got a zero pay rise. Last year, a member of my team left, for an equivalent job to his in the private sector, for a 50% pay rise, and free beer! In my experience, though, the private sector will only employ you when there is work to be done, and kick you out when there is no work, so the 50% pay rise works out the same in total. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 4, 2024 14:16:38 GMT
As some-one who has worked in both the public sector and the private sector, currently public, in Scotland since 1988, I am struggling with the "high-paying job" bit. The private sector always pays more for equivalent jobs, in my experience in the IT and IT-adjacent areas. In 2022/23, with inflation at 10%, I got a zero pay rise. Last year, a member of my team left, for an equivalent job to his in the private sector, for a 50% pay rise, and free beer! In my experience, though, the private sector will only employ you when there is work to be done, and kick you out when there is no work, so the 50% pay rise works out the same in total. Oh there is plenty of work to be done, particluarly since the guy who left last June was only replaced in December. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 22, 2024 13:54:53 GMT
2011 Census, old boundariesAge 65+ 15.4% 426/650 Very good health 60.4% 1/650Owner-occupied 66.3% 349/650 Private rented 20.0% 123/650 Social rented 12.1% 490/650 White 91.2% 411/650 Black 0.8% 302/650 Asian 6.1% 184/650 Born in Scotland 68.0% 56/59 Professional occupations 32.3% 5/650 Managerial & professional 40.5% Routine & Semi-routine 15.3% Degree level 46.9% 21/650 No qualifications 14.7% 611/650 Students 19.7% 36/650 2022 Census, new boundariesDetails not yet available
General Election 2019: Edinburgh SouthParty Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ian Murray 23,745 47.7 -7.2SNP Catriona MacDonald 12,650 25.4 +2.9 Conservative Nick Cook 8,161 16.4 -3.3 Liberal Democrats Alan Beal 3,819 7.7 +4.8 Scottish Green Kate Nevens 1,357 2.7 Lab Majority 11,095 22.3 -10.1Turnout 49,732 75.1 +1.0 Labour hold Swing 5.1 Lab to SNP Boundary ChangesEdinburgh South consists of 100% of Edinburgh South 8.5% of Edinburgh East Mapwww.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/edinburgh_south_5.pdf2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher) | Lab | 24508 | 46.2% | | SNP | 13731 | 25.9% | | Con | 8922 | 16.8% | | LD | 4344 | 8.2% | | Green | 1542 | 2.9% |
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| | | | | | Majority | 10795 | 20.4% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 22, 2024 16:37:59 GMT
Do you want to check those Notional results? I think there's a fairly glaring error.
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Post by johnloony on Feb 22, 2024 17:40:13 GMT
50.6% 36.5% 6.7% 3.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% assuming the raw numbers are correct |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 22, 2024 17:45:40 GMT
2019 general election result:
LAB: 23,745 (47.7%) SNP: 12,650 (25.4%) CON: 8,161 (16.4%) LIB: 3,819 (7.7%) GRN: 1,357 (2.7%) Thusly the numbers abovementioned are obviously not the correct raw figures but the percentages might be |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 22, 2024 18:20:08 GMT
Yes, well spotted.
I shall edit my post to the correct figures later this evening. I have somehow managed to use the raw figures from my template.
The two sets of Others were a giveaway …
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Feb 22, 2024 20:11:24 GMT
I think David was referring to the ordering of Labour and SNP
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Post by johnloony on Feb 22, 2024 20:28:01 GMT
I think David was referring to the ordering of Labour and SNP The percentages didn’t match the numbers anyway |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 22, 2024 20:44:22 GMT
The notionals in my post above are now correct. Just to confirm
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher) | Lab | 24508 | 46.2% | | SNP | 13731 | 25.9% | | Con | 8922 | 16.8% | | LD | 4344 | 8.2% | | Green | 1542 | 2.9% |
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| | | | | | Majority | 10795 | 20.4% |
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