Post by John Chanin on Aug 29, 2023 12:52:12 GMT
This very varied seat on the border of Greater London is based on the town of Enfield proper. On the east of the seat, alongside the river Lea as far north as the M25, is the old industrial area of Enfield Lock, Brimsdown, and Ponders End, with Edmonton to the south and Waltham Cross to the north - an area developed very early alongside the Lea navigation canal, and the railway to Liverpool Street. This part of Enfield east of the A1010, is only 40% owner-occupied, with over 20% council housing, and is much more working class, with a high black population similar to Edmonton and Tottenham to the south. Enfield Island Village is a large new development on the site of the famous old Enfield Small Arms factory (source of the Enfield rifle), sitting between the Lea Navigation and the river proper, just to the north of the reservoirs. Curiously this area was in Epping Forest district prior to the development, although its communications are all to the west. Inland between the two main roads (A10 and A1010) is another railway line, and very similar demographics. This working class area was historically Labour (there was a separate Enfield East seat prior to 1974) but became much more marginal in modern times. All wards were won by the Conservatives in 2002, and they held 2 of them in 2006, but all wards have been Labour since then. One major trend here has been a rise in homeless families relocated from inner London, as this remains one of the cheapest areas of London. This section accounts for almost exactly half of the seat.
To the west of the A10 is the other half - Enfield town - a decidedly more up market district where there is little council housing, two thirds of households are owner-occupiers, there is only half the proportion of routine jobs, and 70% of the population is still white. Enfield is an old market town with the 18th century New River flowing through it, but there isn’t much of this left. Mostly this is inter-war suburban semi-detached housing, and the town centre is new. To the north, between Enfield and the M25 is Enfield Chase. This is basically open country, whose absorption into Greater London in 1965 was due to it being part of the old Middlesex borough of Enfield. Only Bromley in Greater London can rival it for the number of farms. The three wards covering the town and Chase are normally Conservative, and transitional Southbury ward is marginal.
The creation of Enfield North in 1974 brought the middle class west and the working class east together into a seat that has been highly marginal and has changed hands several times. Labour’s Joan Ryan won it from the Conservatives in 1997, but was defeated in 2010, only to regain the seat in 2015. Ryan fell out with her constituency party, as a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn, and was one of the MPs who defected to the Independent Group for Change in 2019. She did not try and retain the seat and the new MP is Feryal Clark (nee Demirci), former Hackney councillor, who is the first MP of Kurdish origin. Sometimes the Boundary Commission is indecisive. In 2010 Ponders End was removed to Edmonton, but in the latest boundary changes it has been brought back again, along with realignment to new ward boundaries. The seat doesn’t look very marginal after the 2024 election, and appears to be continuing to trend Labour like many outer London seats, with less of a drop in the Labour share than other London seats.
Census data: Owner-occupied 52% (484/575 in England & Wales), private rented 28% (81st), social rented 20% (156th).
: White 52%(527th), Black 20%(18th), South Asian 6%(176th), Mixed 6%(30th), Other 15%(18th)
: Managerial & professional 37% (333rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (250th)
: Degree 32% (236th), Minimal qualifications 33% (111th)
: Students 10% (106th), Over 65: 12% (510th)
: Muslim 18%(51st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 85% from Enfield N, 12% from Edmonton, and 2% from Southgate
97% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Southgate & Wood Green
To the west of the A10 is the other half - Enfield town - a decidedly more up market district where there is little council housing, two thirds of households are owner-occupiers, there is only half the proportion of routine jobs, and 70% of the population is still white. Enfield is an old market town with the 18th century New River flowing through it, but there isn’t much of this left. Mostly this is inter-war suburban semi-detached housing, and the town centre is new. To the north, between Enfield and the M25 is Enfield Chase. This is basically open country, whose absorption into Greater London in 1965 was due to it being part of the old Middlesex borough of Enfield. Only Bromley in Greater London can rival it for the number of farms. The three wards covering the town and Chase are normally Conservative, and transitional Southbury ward is marginal.
The creation of Enfield North in 1974 brought the middle class west and the working class east together into a seat that has been highly marginal and has changed hands several times. Labour’s Joan Ryan won it from the Conservatives in 1997, but was defeated in 2010, only to regain the seat in 2015. Ryan fell out with her constituency party, as a vocal critic of Jeremy Corbyn, and was one of the MPs who defected to the Independent Group for Change in 2019. She did not try and retain the seat and the new MP is Feryal Clark (nee Demirci), former Hackney councillor, who is the first MP of Kurdish origin. Sometimes the Boundary Commission is indecisive. In 2010 Ponders End was removed to Edmonton, but in the latest boundary changes it has been brought back again, along with realignment to new ward boundaries. The seat doesn’t look very marginal after the 2024 election, and appears to be continuing to trend Labour like many outer London seats, with less of a drop in the Labour share than other London seats.
Census data: Owner-occupied 52% (484/575 in England & Wales), private rented 28% (81st), social rented 20% (156th).
: White 52%(527th), Black 20%(18th), South Asian 6%(176th), Mixed 6%(30th), Other 15%(18th)
: Managerial & professional 37% (333rd), Routine & Semi-routine 29% (250th)
: Degree 32% (236th), Minimal qualifications 33% (111th)
: Students 10% (106th), Over 65: 12% (510th)
: Muslim 18%(51st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 85% from Enfield N, 12% from Edmonton, and 2% from Southgate
97% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Southgate & Wood Green
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 28,177 | 58.0 | 23,340 | 51.8 | 27,103 | 53.3 | 21,368 | 49.1 |
| Conservative | 17,930 | 36.9 | 16,848 | 37.4 | 18,250 | 35.9 | 8,632 | 19.8 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,036 | 2.1 | 2,950 | 6.5 | 3,319 | 6.5 | 2,517 | 5.8 |
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 848 | 1.7 | 797 | 1.8 | 908 | 1.8 | 5,146 | 11.8 |
| Green | 574 | 1.2 | 1,115 | 2.5 | 1,228 | 2.4 | 3,713 | 8.5 |
| Workers | 668 | 1.5 | ||||||
| Other | 1,448 | 3.3 | ||||||
| Majority | 10,247 | 21.1 | 6,492 | 14.4 | 8,853 | 17.4 | 12,736 | 29.3 |