Post by John Chanin on Aug 29, 2023 10:16:06 GMT
The borough of Enfield has too few voters to sustain 3 seats within its boundaries. Since neighbouring Barnet has too many for 3 seats, and Haringey too many for 2 seats, then a cross-borough seat with one of them is inevitable. (One of the zombie reviews did rather suggest a link across the Lea valley with Chingford, but the Lea valley is very wide, full of reservoirs, and with just two road crossings, so this was desperation). In its initial proposals the Boundary Commission chose Barnet, which worked very well for Enfield, but had knock on effects which made a considerable mess elsewhere. So they shifted to a cross-borough seat with Haringey. Now there is more than one way to do this, although realistically there are just two broad choices - you can link Edmonton with Tottenham, or Southgate with Wood Green, and the Commission’s choice of the latter can easily be defended as the best solution. They have been linked before, albeit in the distant past prior to 1950. However the devil is in the detail, and we have a very strange long thin seat here, stretching all the way from Hadley Wood outside the built up boundary of Greater London, to Turnpike Lane on the edge of the inner city. It is at least tied together by the Piccadilly line of the London Underground, which terminates at Cockfosters at the edge of the conurbation. We will have to live with this, at least until the next boundary review.
The Haringey section has 30,000 voters amounting to 40% of the new seat, and consists predominantly of Wood Green. This sits to the east of the railway line that divides the borough in two, and separates it from Alexandra Park on the other side. Wood Green is clustered around its major shopping centre, which runs along the High Road between Turnpike Lane and Wood Green underground stations. This is part of the Green Lanes corridor, with its high Turkish/Cypriot population. The white population is over 50% here, but the "other white" population greatly exceeds the white British population, because there is a recent and large east European population, not just Polish, but from all parts of eastern Europe, as well as the longer standing Cypriots. There are a lot of council tenants in Wood Green, with owner-occupation only around a third of households, and it has a higher level of routine workers and minimal qualifications than Southgate. Also from Haringey is the White Hart Lane ward, which is part of Tottenham, and a bit out of place here. This is nowhere near the Tottenham Hotspur football ground, which is 2 wards and a mile to the east. White Hart Lane is a very long road which connects north Tottenham with Wood Green, and the ward named after it covers only its western end, and perhaps could have been given a less confusing name. Be that as it may, this is by far the poorest ward in the seat, with the highest number of council tenants.
The remaining 60% of the constituency comes from the Southgate seat, and forms the western edge of the borough of Enfield. Bowes Park and New Southgate to the south of the North Circular Road are transitional between the two parts of the seat - more owner-occupation than Wood Green, but not dissimilar demographics, particularly in Bowes Ward. North are the suburbs of Palmers Green and Southgate proper, both full of inter-war semi-detached houses, all traditionally owner-occupied, and with very little social housing. There are some fine Victorian & Georgian mansions at Southgate Green, the old village before the suburbs crawled across the country separating it from London. These days a quarter of households rent privately, which affects their politics, but managerial jobs and degrees are 50% throughout. There is a large other white contingent here too, mainly Cypriot, but these are families made good, who in the normal way have moved out towards better quality housing and environment, and a south Asian population of around 10%. Cockfosters at the northern end of the seat, west of Enfield town on the other side of the huge Trent Park, and the terminus of the Piccadilly line, is more closely linked to Barnet than Enfield. Demographically it is little different to the suburban areas of Barnet and Southgate though. North of Cockfosters is a large slice of countryside, unusual in Greater London, which was incorporated as part of the old borough of Enfield. This includes the suburb of Hadley Wood, only loosely connected to the main built up area. In summary this remains a suburban middle-class seat, although much less so than the old Southgate seat which included Winchmore Hill. Its main distinction is the 3rd largest ‘other white’ population in the country after the two central London seats - over 25%.
Southgate is one of those constituencies that has moved sharply away from the Conservatives over the last 25 years as a result both of demographic and political change. The old Southgate constituency was considered a safe seat with Michael Portillo having a majority of over 15,000 in 1992, and more than twice the vote of Labour. However like neighbouring suburban seats there was an enormous swing of over 17% here in 1997 to give Labour an unexpected victory. The Conservatives regained the seat in 2005, but it did not revert to safe status. Historically at local level the Conservatives won all the wards except Bowes, but then Labour started winning Palmers Green ward in the south, as younger more liberal and less white households started moving into the suburbs in significant numbers. The big change politically is however more recent, with the 10% swing linked to EU membership occurring in 2017, and returning the seat to Labour. Since 2018 Labour have also started winning some seats at council elections in the Southgate wards. Unlike many other seats there was no swing back to the Conservatives in 2019, a sign of how much ground they have lost in London among the educated middle classes.
The Winchmore Hill area of the old seat has now been moved to Edmonton, and this was along with Cockfosters the most Conservative part of the seat. At local level the Wood Green wards are solidly Labour, and remained so even when the Liberal Democrats were winning the Hornsey & Wood Green parliamentary seat, as is the White Hart Lane ward, formerly in the Tottenham seat. As expected the much changed seat has ceased to be marginal, with Labour winning very easily. The current MP is Bambos Charalambous, a solicitor from the local Cypriot community, who won the old Southgate seat in 2017.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (331/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (73rd), social rented 9% (542nd).
: White 58%(512th), Black 12%(42nd), South Asian 8%(135th), Mixed 6%(32nd), Other 16%(17th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (197th), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (425th)
: Degree 43% (83rd), Minimal qualifications 28% (283rd)
: Students 8% (149th), Over 65: 14% (478th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 56% from Southgate, 31% from Hornsey & Wood Green, 8% from Tottenham, 3% from Enfield N, and 2% from Edmonton
66% of the old seat is in the new one, with 32% going to Edmonton & Winchmore Hill, and 3% to Enfield North
The 2017 and 2019 figures below are for the old Enfield Southgate seat
The Haringey section has 30,000 voters amounting to 40% of the new seat, and consists predominantly of Wood Green. This sits to the east of the railway line that divides the borough in two, and separates it from Alexandra Park on the other side. Wood Green is clustered around its major shopping centre, which runs along the High Road between Turnpike Lane and Wood Green underground stations. This is part of the Green Lanes corridor, with its high Turkish/Cypriot population. The white population is over 50% here, but the "other white" population greatly exceeds the white British population, because there is a recent and large east European population, not just Polish, but from all parts of eastern Europe, as well as the longer standing Cypriots. There are a lot of council tenants in Wood Green, with owner-occupation only around a third of households, and it has a higher level of routine workers and minimal qualifications than Southgate. Also from Haringey is the White Hart Lane ward, which is part of Tottenham, and a bit out of place here. This is nowhere near the Tottenham Hotspur football ground, which is 2 wards and a mile to the east. White Hart Lane is a very long road which connects north Tottenham with Wood Green, and the ward named after it covers only its western end, and perhaps could have been given a less confusing name. Be that as it may, this is by far the poorest ward in the seat, with the highest number of council tenants.
The remaining 60% of the constituency comes from the Southgate seat, and forms the western edge of the borough of Enfield. Bowes Park and New Southgate to the south of the North Circular Road are transitional between the two parts of the seat - more owner-occupation than Wood Green, but not dissimilar demographics, particularly in Bowes Ward. North are the suburbs of Palmers Green and Southgate proper, both full of inter-war semi-detached houses, all traditionally owner-occupied, and with very little social housing. There are some fine Victorian & Georgian mansions at Southgate Green, the old village before the suburbs crawled across the country separating it from London. These days a quarter of households rent privately, which affects their politics, but managerial jobs and degrees are 50% throughout. There is a large other white contingent here too, mainly Cypriot, but these are families made good, who in the normal way have moved out towards better quality housing and environment, and a south Asian population of around 10%. Cockfosters at the northern end of the seat, west of Enfield town on the other side of the huge Trent Park, and the terminus of the Piccadilly line, is more closely linked to Barnet than Enfield. Demographically it is little different to the suburban areas of Barnet and Southgate though. North of Cockfosters is a large slice of countryside, unusual in Greater London, which was incorporated as part of the old borough of Enfield. This includes the suburb of Hadley Wood, only loosely connected to the main built up area. In summary this remains a suburban middle-class seat, although much less so than the old Southgate seat which included Winchmore Hill. Its main distinction is the 3rd largest ‘other white’ population in the country after the two central London seats - over 25%.
Southgate is one of those constituencies that has moved sharply away from the Conservatives over the last 25 years as a result both of demographic and political change. The old Southgate constituency was considered a safe seat with Michael Portillo having a majority of over 15,000 in 1992, and more than twice the vote of Labour. However like neighbouring suburban seats there was an enormous swing of over 17% here in 1997 to give Labour an unexpected victory. The Conservatives regained the seat in 2005, but it did not revert to safe status. Historically at local level the Conservatives won all the wards except Bowes, but then Labour started winning Palmers Green ward in the south, as younger more liberal and less white households started moving into the suburbs in significant numbers. The big change politically is however more recent, with the 10% swing linked to EU membership occurring in 2017, and returning the seat to Labour. Since 2018 Labour have also started winning some seats at council elections in the Southgate wards. Unlike many other seats there was no swing back to the Conservatives in 2019, a sign of how much ground they have lost in London among the educated middle classes.
The Winchmore Hill area of the old seat has now been moved to Edmonton, and this was along with Cockfosters the most Conservative part of the seat. At local level the Wood Green wards are solidly Labour, and remained so even when the Liberal Democrats were winning the Hornsey & Wood Green parliamentary seat, as is the White Hart Lane ward, formerly in the Tottenham seat. As expected the much changed seat has ceased to be marginal, with Labour winning very easily. The current MP is Bambos Charalambous, a solicitor from the local Cypriot community, who won the old Southgate seat in 2017.
Census data: Owner-occupied 66% (331/573 in England & Wales), private rented 24% (73rd), social rented 9% (542nd).
: White 58%(512th), Black 12%(42nd), South Asian 8%(135th), Mixed 6%(32nd), Other 16%(17th)
: Managerial & professional 42% (197th), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (425th)
: Degree 43% (83rd), Minimal qualifications 28% (283rd)
: Students 8% (149th), Over 65: 14% (478th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 56% from Southgate, 31% from Hornsey & Wood Green, 8% from Tottenham, 3% from Enfield N, and 2% from Edmonton
66% of the old seat is in the new one, with 32% going to Edmonton & Winchmore Hill, and 3% to Enfield North
The 2017 and 2019 figures below are for the old Enfield Southgate seat
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 24,989 | 51.7 | 22,923 | 48.5 | 30,465 | 57.8 | 23,337 | 51.1 |
| Conservative | 20,634 | 42.7 | 18,473 | 39.1 | 15,051 | 28.6 | 8,037 | 17.6 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,925 | 4.0 | 4,344 | 9.2 | 5,242 | 9.9 | 3,925 | 8.6 |
| Brexit/Reform | 494 | 1.0 | 660 | 1.3 | 3,147 | 6.9 | ||
| Green | 780 | 1.6 | 1,042 | 2.2 | 1,294 | 2.5 | 5,607 | 12.3 |
| Workers | 833 | 1.8 | ||||||
| Other | 785 | 1.7 | ||||||
| Majority | 4,355 | 9.0 | 4,450 | 9.4 | 15,414 | 29.2 | 15,300 | 33.5 |
