Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2023 8:01:59 GMT
One wonders how the current war in Israel will impact on voting here along with Hendon in particular. The Conservative Government's robust support for Israel may help the Party to hold both seats despite a relatively low majority. Yes. I've been thinking about that. I think the Tories could win back Barnet & Camden on the GLA level, although it's a tough nut to crack for them. That said, Khan recently visited a synagogue in this constituency so I'm not sure he'll do any worse than usual in Barnet next year. Susan Hall probably carries Barnet like Bailey did. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,384 
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Oct 12, 2023 8:57:34 GMT
Jewish voters who have been attracted back to Labour since 2020 - and there are quite a lot of them in Barnet - will only go back to the Tories if they think Labour is returning to its Corbyn-era politics. This isn't happening. I think some posters may be a ) exaggerating the number of Jewish voters in the Borough - we are nothing like a majority except in Edgware & Golders Green wards and b ) expecting a mass reversion to the Tories amongst Jewish voters which is unlikely to anything like the extent necessary to prevent Labour from winning those 2 constituencies. There is a much smaller Jewish community in Chipping Barnet, except in Totteridge. rcronald is right to a fair degree about Barnet Jewish voters, but there is a sizeable minority which traditionally voted Labour, stopped doing so especially from 2018 onwards (though some would have done so as soon as Corbyn became leader in 2015), but has largely returned to its traditional allegiance now.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,384
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Oct 12, 2023 9:01:14 GMT
Basically, we in the Labour Party are mostly much more worried about missing out in Harrow East next door (which is a strong possibility) than missing out in Hendon, although that seat is never easy, or Finchley & Golders Green where we are confident that the great majority of those who voted for Luciana Berger last time will vote for Labour's Sarah Sackman (who is also Jewish) this time. Don't forget also that Labour has a Jewish Labour Movement member, David Pinto-Duschinsky, standing in Hendon. It's very surprising that the Tories have never in history fielded a Jewish candidate anywhere in the London Borough of Barnet as it is now in parliamentary elections, whereas Labour often has.
|
|
rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,370
Member is Online
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 12, 2023 9:03:35 GMT
Jewish voters who have been attracted back to Labour since 2020 - and there are quite a lot of them in Barnet - will only go back to the Tories if they think Labour is returning to its Corbyn-era politics. This isn't happening. I think some posters may be a ) exaggerating the number of Jewish voters in the Borough - we are nothing like a majority except in Edgware & Golders Green wards and b ) expecting a mass reversion to the Tories amongst Jewish voters which is unlikely to anything like the extent necessary to prevent Labour from winning those 2 constituencies. There is a much smaller Jewish community in Chipping Barnet, except in Totteridge. rcronald is right to a fair degree about Barnet Jewish voters, but there is a sizeable minority which traditionally voted Labour, stopped doing so especially from 2018 onwards (though some would have done so as soon as Corbyn became leader in 2015), but has largely returned to its traditional allegiance now. But they voted for Berger in 2019 rather than Freer. |
|
rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,370
Member is Online
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 12, 2023 9:07:19 GMT
Basically, we in the Labour Party are mostly much more worried about missing out in Harrow East next door (which is a strong possibility) than missing out in Hendon, although that seat is never easy, or Finchley & Golders Green where we are confident that the great majority of those who voted for Luciana Berger last time will vote for Labour's Sarah Sackman (who is also Jewish) this time. Don't forget also that Labour has a Jewish Labour Movement member, David Pinto-Duschinsky, standing in Hendon. It's very surprising that the Tories have never in history fielded a Jewish candidate anywhere in the London Borough of Barnet as it is now in parliamentary elections, whereas Labour often has. I expect Labour to win both Finchley and Hendon, but Hendon is always going to be relatively close (a lot of inelastic voters for both parties) and while I expect Freer to lose, I don't expect him to actually lose a lot of votes himself but rather a large majority of Berger voters to vote Sackman. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,384
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Oct 12, 2023 9:56:40 GMT
Jewish voters who have been attracted back to Labour since 2020 - and there are quite a lot of them in Barnet - will only go back to the Tories if they think Labour is returning to its Corbyn-era politics. This isn't happening. I think some posters may be a ) exaggerating the number of Jewish voters in the Borough - we are nothing like a majority except in Edgware & Golders Green wards and b ) expecting a mass reversion to the Tories amongst Jewish voters which is unlikely to anything like the extent necessary to prevent Labour from winning those 2 constituencies. There is a much smaller Jewish community in Chipping Barnet, except in Totteridge. rcronald is right to a fair degree about Barnet Jewish voters, but there is a sizeable minority which traditionally voted Labour, stopped doing so especially from 2018 onwards (though some would have done so as soon as Corbyn became leader in 2015), but has largely returned to its traditional allegiance now. But they voted for Berger in 2019 rather than Freer. A lot yes, though some will have voted for Freer. You are right though in saying that there would have been more direct switchers from Labour to Conservative in Hendon than in FGG. |
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Oct 12, 2023 17:33:04 GMT
Basically, we in the Labour Party are mostly much more worried about missing out in Harrow East next door (which is a strong possibility) than missing out in Hendon, although that seat is never easy, or Finchley & Golders Green where we are confident that the great majority of those who voted for Luciana Berger last time will vote for Labour's Sarah Sackman (who is also Jewish) this time. Don't forget also that Labour has a Jewish Labour Movement member, David Pinto-Duschinsky, standing in Hendon. It's very surprising that the Tories have never in history fielded a Jewish candidate anywhere in the London Borough of Barnet as it is now in parliamentary elections, whereas Labour often has. That last point is a very interesting one. I had thought Freer was Jewish but now realise he isn't. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2023 17:43:12 GMT
Demographic change helps because now there is no Barnet seat Labour can't win, unlike in 1997 when Chipping Barnet was out of their reach really.
|
|
rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,370
Member is Online
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 12, 2023 17:44:36 GMT
Demographic change helps because now there is no Barnet seat Labour can't win, unlike in 1997 when Chipping Barnet was out of their reach really. Villiers is easily the worst constituency MP out of the 3 members as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Oct 12, 2023 22:43:00 GMT
Jewish voters who have been attracted back to Labour since 2020 - and there are quite a lot of them in Barnet - will only go back to the Tories if they think Labour is returning to its Corbyn-era politics. This isn't happening. I think some posters may be a ) exaggerating the number of Jewish voters in the Borough - we are nothing like a majority except in Edgware & Golders Green wards and b ) expecting a mass reversion to the Tories amongst Jewish voters which is unlikely to anything like the extent necessary to prevent Labour from winning those 2 constituencies. There is a much smaller Jewish community in Chipping Barnet, except in Totteridge. rcronald is right to a fair degree about Barnet Jewish voters, but there is a sizeable minority which traditionally voted Labour, stopped doing so especially from 2018 onwards (though some would have done so as soon as Corbyn became leader in 2015), but has largely returned to its traditional allegiance now. But they voted for Berger in 2019 rather than Freer. Though the question of the extent to which Jewish voters in F&GG voted for Berger rather than Freer depends in part on which F&GG wards Berger's votes came from - do remember that Freer's vote actually dropped (very slightly in number of votes, somewhat more in voting percentage) between 2017 and 2019. So, Electoral Calculus (and, I think, other pollsters who have tried to take the F&GG 2019 results down to ward level) have calculated that Berger got the bulk of her vote in the three least Jewish F&GG wards, as ward boundaries then stood. As these were historically Labour's strongest wards, that is certainly possible, but each of those three wards contained no more than about 1,000 Jewish voters in total (so, about 3,000 between the three wards); the Labour vote in F&GG went down by almost 10,000; and the LD vote went up by over 14,000. If every single Jewish voter in those wards had voted Labour in 2017 and LD in 2019, that would still leave the question of the extent to which the 13,000 Jewish voters in the other four wards (three of them historically safe Conservative, though the fourth had elected LD councillors between 1986 and 2010) had contributed to either figure. On the available figures, I do not see any plausible scenario in which the 2019 collapse in the F&GG Labour vote did not depend on there being more non-Jewish 2017 Labour switchers than Jewish ones; or one in which the increase in LD votes did not depend on there being something like twice (or more) non-Jewish switchers to LD in 2019 than Jewish ones. And the greater the extent to which either figure results from movements in the three historically strong Labour wards, the larger the non-Jewish/Jewish ratio to obtain the figure would need to be. (Not that I have any real confident in any Electoral Calculus figures, anyway.) On other matters, while I agree with the overall force of batman 's points, many of the details do seem to be superseded by the 2022 ward and 2024 constituency boundary revisions. The ward boundary changes were extensive - in particular, it's unsafe to assume that just because a 2022 ward shares a name with a pre-2022 one, there can't be some fairly significant differences between the two. On the 2022 boundaries, going by the 2021 census figures, Golders Green is now a two-member ward and even nearer a Jewish majority than before - indeed, on population figures, it's now only a dozen or so inhabitants short. Electorate figures probably come out a bit differently, but not extremely so. It is also the most Conservative ward in Barnet - in both the 2022 council election and a more recent by-election, the Conservative candidates got just over two-thirds of the vote. The next nearest ward to a Jewish majority is now Garden Suburb, with a Jewish population of rather over 40% - I think slightly higher than before, but not by much. This is also now a two-member ward, with most of its boundaries slightly reduced but still including the entire core area of Hampstead Garden Suburb. It is still safe Conservative, but to nothing like the same degree as Golders Green. In effect, Garden Suburb's boundary changes have probably slightly increased the proportion of the Jewish populations of at least three neighbouring wards, including Golders Green - though in the other cases, it looks as if the transferred areas had the kind of intermediate populations that simultaneously increased the Jewishness of both donating and receiving wards. Childs Hill ward, which also gained a similar area from Golders Green and is still a three-member ward (though with notably different boundaries), has a somewhat increased Jewish population but still only just over (rather than just under) the 20% mark - however, the main reason for this is the actually the creation of a new two-member Cricklewood ward out of the former western areas of Childs Hill and Golders Green wards. And Cricklewood, by F&GG standards, has a distinctly low Jewish population (less than 3%) - more comparable with Burnt Oak or, for that matter, its neighbouring wards across the A5 in Brent. Next come four wards with a Jewish population around the 30% mark. Of these, the only F&GG one is Finchley Church End, at just over 30% and not much changed. The other Finchley wards (mentioned earlier in their old incarnations) have some boundary (but not name) changes but, of course, relatively small Jewish populations by F&GG standards - the only thing more to say on this is that the new F&GG is still more than 95% the same as the old F&GG, and is still the UK's most Jewish (or should that be least un-Jewish?) constituency. Turning to Hendon constituency, Hendon ward has gained a relatively small area from West Hendon ward which, however, contains over half of West Hendon's former Jewish population - 32% or so Jewish, and safely Conservative compared with anywhere in Barnet except Golders Green (of which it is in part something of a western continuation). However, in the north of the constituency, Edgware ward, while also still safely Conservative, has been thoroughly redrawn, and the new ward has a very much lower Jewish population than the old one. Effectively, the LGBCE took the old Edgware and Hale wards together, transferred a small southern strip (mostly in the old Hale ward) to Burnt Oak (to which it is probably demographically more similar), and one or two very small areas to other neighbouring wards, and then split them along Edgware Way (rather than, as I believe previously, the Silk Stream). The result is the new Edgware ward (still three-member) south of Edgware Way and a two-member Edgwarebury ward to its north. And the result is to split the combined Jewish population of the old Edgware and Hale wards almost exactly three to two between the new Edgware and Edgwarebury wards - the Jewish population of each ward is between 28% and 29%. Edgwarebury ward, however, remained only very narrowly Conservative at the 2022 election. If it weren't for one significant detail, the new Hendon constituency would, like the new F&GG, be very similar to the old. But that significant detail is that it would be over quota, so somewhere has to go. And the one that is going is Edgwarebury - to Chipping Barnet. As a result, Hendon loses its status as the UK's second most Jewish constituency and drops to fourth - the second is now Bury South (which has gained Salford's Kersal and Broughton Park ward) and the third is Hertsmere, just across the Greater London/Hertfordshire boundary. Edgwarebury is now by quite some way Chipping Barnet's most Jewish ward (the next, Totteridge and Woodside, is at about 16%) - and while Chipping Barnet remains by some way Barnet's least Jewish constituency, it still, I believe, now comes in at sixth nationally. |
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Oct 12, 2023 23:15:16 GMT
Demographic change helps because now there is no Barnet seat Labour can't win, unlike in 1997 when Chipping Barnet was out of their reach really. Villiers is easily the worst constituency MP out of the 3 members as well. There has been demographic change but, with a Conservative majority of only just over 1,000, there wasn't that much to it in 1997 - I was at that Chipping Barnet count, and it's one of my most vivid memories. (Particularly the point when, the Labour agent having effectively collapsed through exhaustion and deputising for her, I steadily stood in a huddle with the returning officer and annoyed other agents, demanding a recount as the Conservative majority had come in at just under 1,000. I got the recount - and Sydney Chapman got the fourth digit of his majority. My Portillo moment? Slightly earlier that night, starting to see that while Labour had got close, we hadn't got quite close enough - and being told that Portillo had lost next door in Enfield Southgate. I found that just a little bit difficult to believe. And finally, being given a lift home by the Labour candidate afterwards, with the sun coming up. I then collapsed in front of the television for the rest of the day, watching the results come in.) On its post-2010 boundaries, Labour would probably have very narrowly won Chipping Barnet in 1997 (though there's at least a chance that the Conservatives would have held on in Finchley and Golders Green). And with Villiers as its MP, Labour might have won even on the 1997 boundaries. (Chapman was a distinctly mediocre politician, but he was a good constituency MP.) Though, assuming Labour wins Chipping Barnet on its new boundaries at the next election, demographic change will definitely have had a lot to do with it. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 3:28:53 GMT
To what extent did activists shift from Chipping Barnet to Enfield Southgate in 1997? I suspect many will be as pleased to see Theresa Villiers and IDS go down in 2024 as they were when Portillo lost in '97. Even my dad, a BBC journalist at the time, cheered went Portillo went down, apparently.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 13, 2023 5:20:30 GMT
To what extent did activists shift from Chipping Barnet to Enfield Southgate in 1997? I suspect many will be as pleased to see Theresa Villiers and IDS go down in 2024 as they were when Portillo lost in '97. Even my dad, a BBC journalist at the time, cheered went Portillo went down, apparently. What? Even a BBC journalist showed anti-Conservative sympathies? I find that incredible.. |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Oct 13, 2023 5:34:38 GMT
To what extent did activists shift from Chipping Barnet to Enfield Southgate in 1997? I suspect many will be as pleased to see Theresa Villiers and IDS go down in 2024 as they were when Portillo lost in '97. Even my dad, a BBC journalist at the time, cheered went Portillo went down, apparently. IDS being defeated will not be anything like as exciting as Portillo being defeated, because IDS’s constituency is already much more marginal, and IDS is an oldie former leader who’s past it, whereas Portillo was an up-and-coming future leader. IDS losing his seat is something which many people have expected for a while; Portillo being defeated was something that hardly anyone expected even in a landslide situation. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 5:38:13 GMT
To what extent did activists shift from Chipping Barnet to Enfield Southgate in 1997? I suspect many will be as pleased to see Theresa Villiers and IDS go down in 2024 as they were when Portillo lost in '97. Even my dad, a BBC journalist at the time, cheered went Portillo went down, apparently. What? Even a BBC journalist showed anti-Conservative sympathies? I find that incredible.. Dad didn't vote between 1983 and 2015, such was his commitment to impartiality. I get a lot of people think the Beeb is biased. My grandad used to have Vince Cable round when he was supporting his campaign in City of York in '83 and '87. I believe my grandad's efforts were responsible for the Tories holding that seat in 1987. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 5:41:57 GMT
To what extent did activists shift from Chipping Barnet to Enfield Southgate in 1997? I suspect many will be as pleased to see Theresa Villiers and IDS go down in 2024 as they were when Portillo lost in '97. Even my dad, a BBC journalist at the time, cheered went Portillo went down, apparently. IDS being defeated will not be anything like as exciting as Portillo being defeated, because IDS’s constituency is already much more marginal, and IDS is an oldie former leader who’s past it, whereas Portillo was an up-and-coming future leader. IDS losing his seat is something which many people have expected for a while; Portillo being defeated was something that hardly anyone expected even in a landslide situation. All true and IDS not being Work & Pensions Secretary probably makes him less of a bogeyman than Portillo was in 1997. |
|
rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,370
Member is Online
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 13, 2023 5:45:15 GMT
What? Even a BBC journalist showed anti-Conservative sympathies? I find that incredible.. Dad didn't vote between 1983 and 2015, such was his commitment to impartiality. I get a lot of people think the Beeb is biased. My grandad used to have Vince Cable round when he was supporting his campaign in City of York in '83 and '87. I believe my grandad's efforts were responsible for the Tories holding that seat in 1987. My father disliked David Dimbleby until his retirement because of his almost wide-open support for the Alliance in the 80s. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 5:46:06 GMT
Dad didn't vote between 1983 and 2015, such was his commitment to impartiality. I get a lot of people think the Beeb is biased. My grandad used to have Vince Cable round when he was supporting his campaign in City of York in '83 and '87. I believe my grandad's efforts were responsible for the Tories holding that seat in 1987. My father disliked David Dimbleby until his retirement because of his almost wide-open support for the Alliance in the 80s. The Alliance got a lot of air time. Did Jenkins just like the sound of his own voice? 1987 was the only time I'd have voted Galloway, if only to give Jenkins a kicking. |
|
rcronald
Likud
Posts: 6,370
Member is Online
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 13, 2023 5:50:27 GMT
My father disliked David Dimbleby until his retirement because of his almost wide-open support for the Alliance in the 80s. The Alliance got a lot of air time. Did Jenkins just like the sound of his own voice? 1987 was the only time I'd have voted Galloway, if only to give Jenkins a kicking. The hatred of Jenkins and the Alliance was one of the only things my father and my grandparents agreed on politically when he was a teen/young adult in the 80s. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 5:52:23 GMT
The Alliance got a lot of air time. Did Jenkins just like the sound of his own voice? 1987 was the only time I'd have voted Galloway, if only to give Jenkins a kicking. The hatred of Jenkins and the Alliance was one of the only things my father and my grandparents agreed on politically when he was a teen/young adult in the 80s. Fair enough. My maternal granddad has voted Labour in every election since 1955 (he lives in Blair's old seat), but my mother votes Conservative. |
|
