graham
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 22:43:41 GMT
Voters have become much less firm in their affiliations since the 1970s and now switch more readily. Difficult to believe that Dave Nellist could come so close to holding his seat in Coventry in 1992 without the much higher profile Corbyn being able to survive. But we’re talking independents not switching parties I just think you’re a bit too certain on this, I wouldn’t entirely rule out Corbyn winning if he stood but I find it doubtful, the Labour vote is just so high. It’s not like there’s much of a significant vote for other parties that could help it be done through the middle Dave Nellist, SO Davies, Eddie Milne were Independents. I suggest that Corbyn's profile is higher than any of them! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 27, 2023 22:54:57 GMT
But we’re talking independents not switching parties I just think you’re a bit too certain on this, I wouldn’t entirely rule out Corbyn winning if he stood but I find it doubtful, the Labour vote is just so high. It’s not like there’s much of a significant vote for other parties that could help it be done through the middle Dave Nellist, SO Davies, Eddie Milne were Independents. I suggest that Corbyn's profile is higher than any of them! But how many have tried and failed doing the same? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 23:26:01 GMT
But we’re talking independents not switching parties I just think you’re a bit too certain on this, I wouldn’t entirely rule out Corbyn winning if he stood but I find it doubtful, the Labour vote is just so high. It’s not like there’s much of a significant vote for other parties that could help it be done through the middle Dave Nellist, SO Davies, Eddie Milne were Independents. I suggest that Corbyn's profile is higher than any of them! Nellist may have listed himself as an Independent but as any fule know he was a member of the Socialist party. Odd that he didn't go for that on the ballot paper. 
The nearest parallel to Corbyn is probably Davies, whose profile in his local area was sky high, was never anything but Labour (officially anyway), although in parliament he was a bit more of a lone wolf than Corbyn ever has been.
Milne was also very well known in his backyard, but suffered as he was 1. not corrupt and 2. not part of the NUM.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 23:29:06 GMT
Dave Nellist, SO Davies, Eddie Milne were Independents. I suggest that Corbyn's profile is higher than any of them! But how many have tried and failed doing the same? Ron Brown in Edinburgh Leith comes to mind. Well known but for all the wrong reasons. 
John Hughes in Coventry South East. Had only served one term.
Syd Bidwell in Ealing Southall. Very well known and as local as they come. Had (rather suprisingly) been in the original RCP in his youth.
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 28, 2023 0:00:43 GMT
Dave Nellist, SO Davies, Eddie Milne were Independents. I suggest that Corbyn's profile is higher than any of them! But how many have tried and failed doing the same? None as high profile as Corbyn! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 28, 2023 0:15:50 GMT
But how many have tried and failed doing the same? None as high profile as Corbyn! Profile helps of course but he's been out of the leadership for over three years now and things move on especially with the modern news cycle. Winning as an independent is always going to be difficult in a system so set towards two or three parties and FPTP not having any PR element to it, as mentioned above Corbyn would really need to make a decision soon and start laying the groundwork to build up an independent campaign and it seems unclear if there's any sign of that
I don't claim much knowledge of Islington North specifically but I can't see it simply being a case of him needing to turn up and win purely based on his profile and length of service. It might well be that he's keeping his options open in public to make a point but is unlikely to actually do it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2023 6:31:29 GMT
Dick Taverne? Sylvia Hermon? David Owen (although he’d been MP since 1966 and defected in 1981).
This is not a Bob Spink Castle Point or Tony Clarke Northampton South 2010 situation and nor is it really analogous to Beaconsfield or South West Herts in 2019.
Bethnal Green & Bow in 2005, Birmingham Hall Green in 2010 or Bradford West 2012 is a crude analogy?
Roy Jenkins of course won a by-election in a left-trending Tory seat when he took Glasgow Hillhead in 1982.
What about the Communists winning Mile End and West Fife in 1945 or when they won Battersea North back in the 20s?
There may be a slight parallel between Jeremy Bernard Corbyn (I) and Bernard Sanders (I). In 1990, Sanders won Vermont’s lone House seat as a democratic socialist having narrowly defeated Democrat Gordon Paquette in the 1981 Burlington mayoral race. He faced a Democrat when he ran for Congress in ‘88 and ‘90. I’m unsure when that stopped.
It’s very hard for me to write this post without blowing my top. If Labour lose in 2024/5, I don’t think it’d be because of Corbyn, Dent Coad etc standing as Labour candidates. I’ll be voting for Khan as stated elsewhere on this site, but right now, Starmer can do one as far as I’m concerned.
Corbyn has so often been on the right side of the history. He isn’t perfect, but give me a politician who is.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2023 8:04:30 GMT
Shapurji Saklatvala was not opposed by the Labour party in Battersea North in 1924. He was wiped out at the following election when Labour put up a candidate.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2023 8:35:07 GMT
Shapurji Saklatvala was not opposed by the Labour party in Battersea North in 1924. He was wiped out at the following election when Labour put up a candidate. His electoral history is a bit complicated in that respect.
He won the seat in 1922, effectively endorsed by the Labour party - all part of the drive to get the Communist party accepted as an affiliate organisation - lost in 1923 to a liberal, won in 1924 as a Communist but unopposed by Labour as you say, and then lost in 1929 as a Communist ,finishing behind both Labour and the Tories.
He also finished fourth out of four at the 1930 Glasgow Shettlestion by election, won by John McGovern whose perambulations around the political spectrum are a story in themselves.
As a constituency Battersea North had more Communist history than most. After missing the elections of 1935 and 1945 and the 1940 and 1946 by elections, with the latter being fought by Hugo Dewar who had been expelled from the Communist party , it stood again in 1950. After again missing elections (1951,55, 59) they returned for 1964, 1966, 1970 and both 1974 elections.
In 1979 in a sign that the Communist party had been buried by the Trotskyist left, the WRP stood along with a candidate from the split from the WRP.  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 28, 2023 8:58:03 GMT
But how many have tried and failed doing the same? None as high profile as Corbyn! "Profile" isn't automatically an unalloyed good. Remember, its a relatively short period since he was the most unpopular politician in the country. |
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Post by batman on Aug 28, 2023 9:15:46 GMT
Jeremy Corbyn is obviously extremely high profile. But there must be many voters including in his own constituency who positively dislike him. I used to support him but now have an extremely low opinion of him although my opinion of some of his supporters is lower still (not all of them, though, I hasten to add). He is likely to be a very polarising figure in the constituency. I think he does have a chance of victory if he stands but I will not be in his corner, not this time.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2023 9:44:49 GMT
None as high profile as Corbyn! "Profile" isn't automatically an unalloyed good. Remember, its a relatively short period since he was the most unpopular politician in the country. We seem to be going round in an endless circle with this one.
If Corbyn stood as any sort of Indie in this constituency he would do very well and there would be a non negligible chance of him winning. Leftists from all over the country, and possibly other countries, would come to support him and it would be a cause celebre . Considerable numbers of local CLP members would support him and get expelled as a result. The Tories would enjoy themselves enormously, the Greens would almost certainly soft pedal their campaign and the Lib Dems moment in Islington has passed (twice) and they will not be a significant factor.
How many oddball candidates we will get as a result will be interesting.
The media would cover it in exhaustive detail, not least but not only because it is in London. At times it would be difficult to work out if there was an election going on anywhere else. It might even warrant a Panorama special. LBC would go into meltdown.
A lot will depend on who and when Labour select a candidate. The chances of cocking this up to Corbyn's advantage are also non negligible, but we'll see. It is possible that there are certain candidates that Corbyn would not want to oppose - the chances of a candidate being found who is acceptable to both him and the current Labour leadership are, i suspect, quite low, but you never know.
I don't buy the retirement bit either. I'm sure he'd quite enjoy one more term of being answerable to no-one but himself and 'the people'.
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 28, 2023 9:58:18 GMT
I really do not see Corbyn losing here given how close Dave Nellist came to holding his Coventry seat in 1992 - and how Taverne and Eddie Milne were able to beat the party machine in the mid-70s.He has a higher profile than any of them.Party loyalties are far weaker now - and Corbyn does keep the area on the map .
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2023 10:01:01 GMT
I really do not see Corbyn losing here given how close Dave Nellist came to holding his Coventry seat in 1992 - and how Taverne and Eddie Milne were able to beat the party machine in the mid-70s.He has a higher profile than any of them.Party loyalties are far weaker now - and Corbyn does keep the area on the map . I note you have lost S O Davies from your list.
Islington hardly needs to be 'kept on the map'. It's not some obscure village in Lincolnshire. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 28, 2023 10:12:55 GMT
Nellist had far fewer enemies (locally and nationally) than Corbyn.
Quite a few mainstream Labour people had some sympathy for him, even if they strongly agreed with excising Militant from the party.
Regarding the local party if JC stands, this may actually be a factor pushing against him doing it - he surely even now has lots of friends there who he still might not want to put in an invidious position. If it does happen, he might well tell them "its OK if you sit on your hands as I will have plenty of people coming here to help me anyway". And there is the precedent of Ken Livingstone in 2000 to consider, as long as Labour people didn't *openly* back him then they were fine.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2023 10:19:38 GMT
Nellist had far fewer enemies (locally and nationally) than Corbyn. Quite a few mainstream Labour people had some sympathy for him, even if they strongly agreed with excising Militant from the party. Regarding the local party if JC stands, this may actually one factor pushing against him doing it - he still surely has lots of friends there who he still might not want to put in an invidious position. If it does happen, he might well tell them "its OK if you sit on your hands as I will have plenty of people coming here to help me anyway". And there is the precedent of Ken Livingstone in 2000 to consider, as long as Labour people didn't *openly* back him they were fine. There is also the factor of course that lots of the people who come to support him if he runs might be er, embarrassing. |
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Post by batman on Aug 28, 2023 10:25:17 GMT
I'm not convinced that Corbyn cares all that much about putting his colleagues in an invidious position. If he did he wouldn't have acted in the way he has since he resigned the leadership (and at times while he did have it)
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 28, 2023 10:30:14 GMT
None as high profile as Corbyn! "Profile" isn't automatically an unalloyed good. Remember, its a relatively short period since he was the most unpopular politician in the country. It depends on how it's framed. I suspect that if a Corbyn run was seen as an act of vanity and ego he'd lose. But from people who I know who have lived in his constituency, he has a good reputation as a constituency MP, including among some Conservative supporters. Experiences may vary of course. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 28, 2023 10:37:30 GMT
I'm not convinced that Corbyn cares all that much about putting his colleagues in an invidious position. If he did he wouldn't have acted in the way he has since he resigned the leadership (and at times while he did have it) Yes of course that is true, but it *may* be slightly different with local people who he has often known and got on with for some time. Taking the approach previously suggested may also be a way of keeping the (perceived) moral high ground, which he could well need to win as an Indy. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 28, 2023 10:40:54 GMT
"Profile" isn't automatically an unalloyed good. Remember, its a relatively short period since he was the most unpopular politician in the country. It depends on how it's framed. I suspect that if a Corbyn run was seen as an act of vanity and ego he'd lose. But from people who I know who have lived in his constituency, he has a good reputation as a constituency MP, including among some Conservative supporters. Experiences may vary of course. That confirms the impression I get from other sources. Many left of centre voters will also see it as an ideal opportunity to 'get back at Starmer.' For quite a few the latter has become more important than beating the Tories . I blame Starmer that it has come to this. |
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