Chingford & Woodford Green

[John Chanin]

Chingford forms the northern part of the borough of Waltham Forest and is quite distinct from the area to the south of the North Circular Road. Situated to the east of the reservoirs in the Lea Valley, this is solidly middle-class suburbia for the most part, with street after street of sizeable semi-detached houses built in the inter-war years (and quite a few post-war). There is a little variation. On the east is the large Friday Hill council estate, now run by a Tenant Management Organization. In the south-west corner is a large former GLC estate, Chingford Hall. The area is over 60% owner-occupied throughout, and nearly two-thirds white, contrasting sharply with the borough to the south. The Chingford Green area to the north on the edge of Epping Forest is noticeably up market, and includes a chunk of the Forest, including its most famous landmark, the Queen Elizabeth Hunting Lodge. The next most well-known landmark was Walthamstow dog track, at the opposite end of the constituency, but this has closed and has been redeveloped into a large number of homes. Locally Chingford is still fairly solidly Conservative, although Labour have started to make inroads into the Hale End area in the south-east.

In 1997 the area south of the north circular road was moved into the undersized Walthamstow seat, and replaced by the two Woodford Green wards from Redbridge, from the abolished Wanstead & Woodford seat. This was the most Conservative part of that borough, and is similar to Chingford in built form, but socially up market, with more managerial occupations and owner-occupiers, particularly in leafy Monkhams ward on the edge of the city. Socially this seat is changing rapidly, like neighbouring Ilford, as large numbers of asian households are buying homes in Woodford, and black households are moving north into Chingford. The boundary changes this time have moved more Redbridge territory into the seat in the form of Woodford Bridge (straddling the river Roding), which is east of the Central Line, above ground here, and forming a major barrier, while facilitating commuting. It has also been extended a little further into South Woodford in an adjustment to new ward boundaries. The area gained is not significantly different, although it includes the large, isolated, and fairly miserable Broadmead tower-block council estate at Woodford Bridge. Historically this whole area was as Conservative as Chingford, but having gained a foothold in 2018, Labour won more councillors than the Conservatives in the three Redbridge wards in 2022, Monkhams now being the only ward in Redbridge with a full slate of Conservative councillors. This is an illustration of the political changes that have seen London’s well-educated and increasingly cosmopolitan younger middle classes moving towards Labour. What was a very safe Conservative seat as recently as 2010 has now become highly marginal. The Conservatives will be relieved that the Boundary Commission has chosen to add territory from Woodford to the undersized seat rather than extend it southwards into Waltham Forest, thus preserving the unusual double crossing of the borough boundaries, and the political balance here. Nonetheless, given the political situation, the Conservative chances seemed hopeless. But Labour’s deselection of its 2019 candidate led to her not only standing as an independent but gaining traction, while Ian Duncan-Smith plainly had a personal vote, which led to the Conservative vote dropping less, and the Reform vote gaining less than in similar seats. As a result Ian Duncan-Smith, MP here since 1992, in succession to the equally well-known Norman Tebbitt, and former Conservative leader, actually increased his majority.

Census data: Owner-occupied 65% (309/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (260th), social rented 16% (237th).
                      : White 63%(494th), Black 11%(55th), South Asian 11%(92nd), Mixed 6%(27th), Other 9%(75th)
                      : Managerial & professional 45% (136th), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (484th)
                      : Degree 39% (121st), Minimal qualifications 27% (330th)
                      : Students 7% (183rd), Over 65: 16% (428th)

Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 84% from Chingford & Woodford Green, and 16% from Ilford North
                        96% of the old seat is in the new one, with 4% going to Leyton & Wanstead

	2017	%	2019	%	Notional	%	2024	%
Conservative	23,076	49.1	23,481	48.5	26,322	48.2	17,281	35.6
Labour	20,638	43.9	22,219	45.9	24,718	45.3	12,524	25.8
Liberal Democrat	2,043	4.4	2,744	5.7	3,193	5.9	1,275	2.6
Brexit/Reform					160	0.3	3,653	7.5
Green	1,204	2.6			213	0.4	1,334	2.7
Other							12,445	25.7
Majority	2,438	5.2	1,262	2.6	1,604	2.9	4,757	9.8

[John Chanin]

Although this was the seat where I grew up, I can find surprisingly little to say about it, as a very ordinary slice of suburbia.

[Deleted]

This seat is fascinating as a case study of a 'big change' London constituency.

IDS won fairly easily in GE1997 but was far behind that margin of victory in 2019.

This seat is an indicator of the Tories' urgent need for South Asian voter outreach.

[andrewp]

Is the big leftward swing here due to different people living here- a Conservative vote dying off and being replaced by a younger more ethnically diverse population- or the same people - outer city dwellers - changing their voting habits and moving leftwards ? Or both?

[Deleted]

Many of Norman Tebbit's voters are no longer around. How many IDS voters who backed him in 1992 are still with us?

I think there's been a lot of turnover especially in the south of this seat. IIRC, South Woodford is changing rapidly.