Post by John Chanin on Aug 21, 2023 11:33:33 GMT
Sometimes when an area gets a new seat because of growing population it is hard to say which exactly the new seat is. That is not the case here - this is without question a brand new seat, taking wards from three previous seats, and a majority from none of them.
The Newham section, imported from West Ham, is quite varied. In the east is part of the Little India of Green Street. Two-thirds of the population is south asian here, fairly evenly divided between those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin, as it also borders the concentration of the latter in Manor Park. This area has much the lowest white population in the seat, much the lowest social housing, and much the lowest proportion in managerial jobs, and with degrees. Demographically speaking it belongs in East Ham. North of here is the Woodgrange Conservation Area - leafy streets of Victorian villas, which is not as up market as it was, with many of them now subdivided and privately rented. This is part of Forest Gate, which sits on the south side of Wanstead Flats, the southern end of Epping Forest, and therefore managed by the City of London, although disappointingly there are few trees, and it is indeed flat. The area next to the Flats is quite up market, even if the housing is smaller than in the conservation area, and has the highest proportion of owner-occupation in the seat. West of Forest Gate is Stratford, with its major shopping centre, transport interchange (including the Channel Tunnel rail link), and of course the Olympic Park. The main stadium is now the home of West Ham Football Club, much of the once derelict area turned into parkland alongside the river Lea, while the olympic village has been turned into an extensive area of private flats, with a substantial amount of social housing, but over 50% of households rent privately here. The area now has its own ward, and is very different with just 1% over 65, 70% with degrees, and nearly 75% in managerial occupations, although its ethnic mix is similar to the rest of Stratford and Forest Gate. This entirely new residential quarter provided some rare variety on Newham council by voting Green at the last local elections. The older part of Stratford is a mixture of council and small private Victorian housing, and there is a charming conservation area of Three Mills alongside the river. While not as extreme as the olympic park, the tenure mix is similar, and over 50% have degrees and are in managerial jobs.
The Tower Hamlets section on the other side of the river Lea, is smaller, and consists mainly of Bow. Unlike the rest of the borough the population is still majority white here, and like neighbouring Stratford over half the residents work in managerial jobs and have degrees. Bow proper has a lot of Victorian two storey terraces, with some gentrification, based around the Roman Road street market, interspersed with council estates, but Old Ford, cut off by the main A12 which leads to the Blackwall Tunnel, is an isolated and modern council estate, formerly one of the 1990s Housing Action Trusts, and now run by the enormous Clarion Housing Association. To the north of the housing is one of London’s largest and pleasantest parks - named appropriately as Victoria Park, reflecting its time of origin. In the same way that Green Street at the eastern end is a little out of place here, so is the last element in the seat, coming in from Poplar - the northern side of Bromley-by-Bow. This is Bangladeshi dominated, and half social housing, much higher than in the rest of the seat. There is still a surprisingly high proportion of managerial jobs and degrees here - higher than in Forest Gate, but not out of line with the bulk of Tower Hamlets. Politically Bow, as you might expect, has had little to do with the local Bangladeshi parties, voting solidly Labour at local level, while Bromley shares the idiosyncratic and marginal politics of the rest of the borough.
Overall this is not a Bangladeshi dominated seat. It is very cosmopolitan, surprisingly well educated, with many people working in white collar jobs in nearby central London, and resembles more the neighbouring Newham seats than the Tower Hamlets ones. The notional figures showed this to be a very safe Labour seat, but the actual 2024 result showed Labour getting well under 50%, with the lost votes distributed between the Greens (who came second), the Workers Party, and three independents, so the Labour majority remained comfortable. The new MP is Una Kumaran, of Tamil descent, and a former Spad from Harrow.
Census data: Owner-occupied 31% (558/575 in England & Wales), private rented 38% (17th), social rented 31% (31st).
: White 39%(555th), Black 13%(33rd), South Asian 33%(23rd), Mixed 5%(53rd), Other 9%(70th)
: Managerial & professional 48% (93rd), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (421st)
: Degree 48% (44th), Minimal qualifications 24% (419th)
: Students 12% (58th), Over 65: 7% (571st)
: Muslim 32% (17th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 61% from West Ham, 30% from Bethnal Green & Bow, and 10% from Poplar &Limehouse
The Newham section, imported from West Ham, is quite varied. In the east is part of the Little India of Green Street. Two-thirds of the population is south asian here, fairly evenly divided between those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin, as it also borders the concentration of the latter in Manor Park. This area has much the lowest white population in the seat, much the lowest social housing, and much the lowest proportion in managerial jobs, and with degrees. Demographically speaking it belongs in East Ham. North of here is the Woodgrange Conservation Area - leafy streets of Victorian villas, which is not as up market as it was, with many of them now subdivided and privately rented. This is part of Forest Gate, which sits on the south side of Wanstead Flats, the southern end of Epping Forest, and therefore managed by the City of London, although disappointingly there are few trees, and it is indeed flat. The area next to the Flats is quite up market, even if the housing is smaller than in the conservation area, and has the highest proportion of owner-occupation in the seat. West of Forest Gate is Stratford, with its major shopping centre, transport interchange (including the Channel Tunnel rail link), and of course the Olympic Park. The main stadium is now the home of West Ham Football Club, much of the once derelict area turned into parkland alongside the river Lea, while the olympic village has been turned into an extensive area of private flats, with a substantial amount of social housing, but over 50% of households rent privately here. The area now has its own ward, and is very different with just 1% over 65, 70% with degrees, and nearly 75% in managerial occupations, although its ethnic mix is similar to the rest of Stratford and Forest Gate. This entirely new residential quarter provided some rare variety on Newham council by voting Green at the last local elections. The older part of Stratford is a mixture of council and small private Victorian housing, and there is a charming conservation area of Three Mills alongside the river. While not as extreme as the olympic park, the tenure mix is similar, and over 50% have degrees and are in managerial jobs.
The Tower Hamlets section on the other side of the river Lea, is smaller, and consists mainly of Bow. Unlike the rest of the borough the population is still majority white here, and like neighbouring Stratford over half the residents work in managerial jobs and have degrees. Bow proper has a lot of Victorian two storey terraces, with some gentrification, based around the Roman Road street market, interspersed with council estates, but Old Ford, cut off by the main A12 which leads to the Blackwall Tunnel, is an isolated and modern council estate, formerly one of the 1990s Housing Action Trusts, and now run by the enormous Clarion Housing Association. To the north of the housing is one of London’s largest and pleasantest parks - named appropriately as Victoria Park, reflecting its time of origin. In the same way that Green Street at the eastern end is a little out of place here, so is the last element in the seat, coming in from Poplar - the northern side of Bromley-by-Bow. This is Bangladeshi dominated, and half social housing, much higher than in the rest of the seat. There is still a surprisingly high proportion of managerial jobs and degrees here - higher than in Forest Gate, but not out of line with the bulk of Tower Hamlets. Politically Bow, as you might expect, has had little to do with the local Bangladeshi parties, voting solidly Labour at local level, while Bromley shares the idiosyncratic and marginal politics of the rest of the borough.
Overall this is not a Bangladeshi dominated seat. It is very cosmopolitan, surprisingly well educated, with many people working in white collar jobs in nearby central London, and resembles more the neighbouring Newham seats than the Tower Hamlets ones. The notional figures showed this to be a very safe Labour seat, but the actual 2024 result showed Labour getting well under 50%, with the lost votes distributed between the Greens (who came second), the Workers Party, and three independents, so the Labour majority remained comfortable. The new MP is Una Kumaran, of Tamil descent, and a former Spad from Harrow.
Census data: Owner-occupied 31% (558/575 in England & Wales), private rented 38% (17th), social rented 31% (31st).
: White 39%(555th), Black 13%(33rd), South Asian 33%(23rd), Mixed 5%(53rd), Other 9%(70th)
: Managerial & professional 48% (93rd), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (421st)
: Degree 48% (44th), Minimal qualifications 24% (419th)
: Students 12% (58th), Over 65: 7% (571st)
: Muslim 32% (17th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 61% from West Ham, 30% from Bethnal Green & Bow, and 10% from Poplar &Limehouse
| Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 33,368 | 70.4 | 19,145 | 44.1 |
| Conservative | 6,877 | 14.5 | 3,114 | 7.2 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4,265 | 9.0 | 1,926 | 4.4 |
| Brexit/Reform | 1,107 | 2.3 | 2,093 | 4.8 |
| Green | 1,758 | 3.7 | 7,511 | 17.3 |
| Workers | 3,274 | 7.5 | ||
| Other | 6,372 | 14.7 | ||
| Majority | 26,491 | 55.9 | 11,634 | 26.8 |
