Post by greenhert on Aug 20, 2023 16:00:30 GMT
Bristol North East is a "new" seat created for this election which will consist of the Eastville, Frome Vale, Hillfields and Lockleaze wards of Bristol and the Kingswood, New Cheltenham, Staple Hill & Mangotsfield and Woodstock wards of South Gloucestershire, thus taking territory from 4 current constituencies: Bristol East, Bristol North West, Filton & Bradley Stoke and Kingswood, the last of which will be abolished entirely.
However, there was a Bristol North East seat from 1950 to 1983, although from 1955 to 1974 it included the town of Mangotsfield, and it is this version of the historic Bristol North East seat which this new seat will most closely resemble. The first version of Bristol NE (1950 to 1955) was reliably Labour but the Conservatives could win it in a good year for them. The second version (1955 to 1974) was a Conservative-leaning marginal and National/Liberal Conservative MP Alan Hopkins represented it from 1959 to 1966 when he was defeated by Labour's Raymond Dobson, who served as PPS to his much more famous Parliamentary neighbour Tony Benn during most of his short tenure as an MP. Robert Adley for the Conservatives unseated him in 1970; upon boundary changes for 1974 which incorporated territory from the abolished Bristol Central (not to be confused with the new version of Bristol Central which is the successor of Bristol West!) and moved Mangotsfield in with Kingswood to form Kingswood as a constituency in its own right, he subsequently became MP for Christchurch & Lymington and then Christchurch (for further details see the Christchurch entry of this Almanac). The 1974 to 1983 version of Bristol NE was reliably Labour but had a significant Conservative vote meaning it was never going to be as safe as Bristol South, and was represented by Arthur Palmer whose long Parliamentary career spanned 4 different constituencies: Wimbledon (1945-50), Cleveland (1952-59), Bristol Central (1964-74) and finally this seat; he retired upon its abolition (it was divided between 4 constituencies, an irony given that it will be formed from 4 constituencies and mostly from constituencies it donated territory to upon its abolition). Most of the territory of this seat was in Kingswood from 1983 to 2010 (when the Bristol wards were removed from it) which throughout its existence was almost a classic suburban/exurban Conservative-Labour marginal, and Kingswood is donating the less upmarket parts to this seat and its more upmarket parts to North East Somerset & Harnham. The Bristol parts of this seat are currently represented by 4 Labour councillors, 3 Green councillors, and 1 Conservative councillor; these wards lean towards Labour being middle-of-the-road but significantly divided suburbs but have frequently seen split representation, usually with the Conservatives. Kingswood and Mangotsfield, meanwhile, are noticeably more downmarket but increasingly attractive to Bristol commuters due to price and distance, although they are less deprived than the southwestern most parts of Bristol South.
Unsurprisingly, Bristol North East is notionally Labour, and with a notional majority of 8,260 it will be safely so for the foreseeable future; a growing Green challenge in the Bristol part is unlikely to make a significant difference unlike in its neighbour Bristol Central. Damien Egan, currently the directly elected Mayor of Lewisham, has been selected as Labour candidate for this seat, and he should have no problem becoming its first post-2024 MP.
However, there was a Bristol North East seat from 1950 to 1983, although from 1955 to 1974 it included the town of Mangotsfield, and it is this version of the historic Bristol North East seat which this new seat will most closely resemble. The first version of Bristol NE (1950 to 1955) was reliably Labour but the Conservatives could win it in a good year for them. The second version (1955 to 1974) was a Conservative-leaning marginal and National/Liberal Conservative MP Alan Hopkins represented it from 1959 to 1966 when he was defeated by Labour's Raymond Dobson, who served as PPS to his much more famous Parliamentary neighbour Tony Benn during most of his short tenure as an MP. Robert Adley for the Conservatives unseated him in 1970; upon boundary changes for 1974 which incorporated territory from the abolished Bristol Central (not to be confused with the new version of Bristol Central which is the successor of Bristol West!) and moved Mangotsfield in with Kingswood to form Kingswood as a constituency in its own right, he subsequently became MP for Christchurch & Lymington and then Christchurch (for further details see the Christchurch entry of this Almanac). The 1974 to 1983 version of Bristol NE was reliably Labour but had a significant Conservative vote meaning it was never going to be as safe as Bristol South, and was represented by Arthur Palmer whose long Parliamentary career spanned 4 different constituencies: Wimbledon (1945-50), Cleveland (1952-59), Bristol Central (1964-74) and finally this seat; he retired upon its abolition (it was divided between 4 constituencies, an irony given that it will be formed from 4 constituencies and mostly from constituencies it donated territory to upon its abolition). Most of the territory of this seat was in Kingswood from 1983 to 2010 (when the Bristol wards were removed from it) which throughout its existence was almost a classic suburban/exurban Conservative-Labour marginal, and Kingswood is donating the less upmarket parts to this seat and its more upmarket parts to North East Somerset & Harnham. The Bristol parts of this seat are currently represented by 4 Labour councillors, 3 Green councillors, and 1 Conservative councillor; these wards lean towards Labour being middle-of-the-road but significantly divided suburbs but have frequently seen split representation, usually with the Conservatives. Kingswood and Mangotsfield, meanwhile, are noticeably more downmarket but increasingly attractive to Bristol commuters due to price and distance, although they are less deprived than the southwestern most parts of Bristol South.
Unsurprisingly, Bristol North East is notionally Labour, and with a notional majority of 8,260 it will be safely so for the foreseeable future; a growing Green challenge in the Bristol part is unlikely to make a significant difference unlike in its neighbour Bristol Central. Damien Egan, currently the directly elected Mayor of Lewisham, has been selected as Labour candidate for this seat, and he should have no problem becoming its first post-2024 MP.
