Post by John Chanin on Aug 19, 2023 7:33:01 GMT
The most remarkable thing about East Ham is that it is probably the most cosmopolitan constituency in the country. It no longer has the lowest white proportion (the latest census puts it second behind Leicester East), but the figure is only 20% and the ethnic minorities are vary varied. South Asian households account for just over half the population but are very evenly split between those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin. The constituency has the 3rd largest Bangladeshi percentage, the 16th largest Indian, and the 24th largest Pakistani. It also has the 17th largest “other asian”, which includes some from the Indian subcontinent who choose to self-classify differently from the census categories, but also exotic communities of Sri Lankan Tamils and Filipinos, not to speak of people from the middle east. The boundary changes have reduced the black population somewhat, but it is still substantial, with the typical London feature that those classifying as of African origin are twice as high as people descended from the older settled Caribbean communities.
Geographically the constituency can be divided into 3 parts. In the north is Manor Park, on the west bank of the Roding and bordering Wanstead Flats, the southernmost manifestation of Epping Forest. This consists of long leafy streets of late Victorian and Edwardian terraced houses. There is also a large council estate in Little Ilford, and only a third of residents are owner-occupiers. This area is where the Bangladeshis are concentrated. In the west is the Green Street area, a real little India in its thriving shopping centre. The Indian population is centred here, straddling Green Street itself, the western side of which forms an outpost in the new Stratford & Bow constituency. People generally think of the Indian Hindu population as being concentrated in Leicester, west London centred on Ealing, and north London centred on Harrow, but there is also a concentration here and in neighbouring Ilford. West Ham FC, despite its name, actually sat on the East Ham side of the street, but their old Boleyn Ground has been redeveloped into 800 mostly private homes. There was once a castle here, still recognised in the name of a pub. In the east is East Ham proper. The housing is mainly smaller than in Manor Park but of a similar vintage, although there are more recent council estates interspersed. At the north-east corner, jammed in between the east coast mainline and the Roding, is the large Hathaway Crescent estate. There is also a lot more council housing in the south of east Ham, and it is in these two areas where the black population is highest. The Tamil community is centred on Wall End ward, between the town centre and the Roding. East Ham is more mixed than Green Street, with a higher white population, and no one community dominating.
One other major feature of the seat is the high level of private renting - the 9th highest in the country. Nowhere is owner-occupation more than half households. Many fewer homes are owner-occupied than they used to be, as this is an area where much of the private housing has been snapped up by landlords over the years - as many households rent privately as own their property and overcrowding is rife. As elsewhere in the inner city, right to buy has had less effect on the number of council homes, but social renting is not high for inner London. Economically this is a very working class seat, with low managerial and high routine workers for London, and little internal variation . It is also one of the youngest seats in England, as a result of the large number of ethnic minority households in overcrowded rental accommodation. Consequently its student numbers and educational qualifications are surprisingly high for such a working class seat. The overcrowding and new development in the south of the old seat led to East Ham being a very large seat, with an electorate of nearly 90,000. As a result the boundary changes are quite substantial here. The whole of the redeveloped area of Beckton, and the Royal Docks, alongside the river Thames, has been moved to West Ham,which has made the present seat much more uniform in character, although not significantly changing its demographics, or its politics.
Put all this together and you have a recipe for a very safe Labour seat, and indeed until 2019, when Labour slipped a bit, it was the safest Labour seat outside Merseyside. Locally all the wards are safe for Labour, and have been since 1994. There was Respect activity in the borough in the first decade of the century, and they finished second here in the 2005 General Election, but never managed to win any councillors. In 2024 the Muslim independent did not poll as highly as in neighbouring seats, despite nearly half the electorate being muslim, and the Labour vote held up better. The MP here is Stephen Timms, first elected at a by-election in 1994 prior to which he was leader of Newham Council. He was a senior minister under the last Labour government, and survived a stabbing attack at a constituency surgery, not the only one in recent years, and an illustration that being an MP has become more dangerous.
Census data: Owner-occupied 39% (544/575 in England & Wales), private rented 39% (9th), social rented 22% (119th).
: White 20%(574th), Black 13%(37th), South Asian 52%(3rd), Mixed 3%(187th), Other 12%(46th)
: Managerial & professional 28% (529th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (130th)
: Degree 34% (240th), Minimal qualifications 35% (75th)
: Students 14% (46th), Over 65: 8% (563rd)
: Muslim 47%(4th), Hindu 10%(13th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from East Ham
80% of the old seat is in the new one, with 20% going to West Ham & Beckton
Geographically the constituency can be divided into 3 parts. In the north is Manor Park, on the west bank of the Roding and bordering Wanstead Flats, the southernmost manifestation of Epping Forest. This consists of long leafy streets of late Victorian and Edwardian terraced houses. There is also a large council estate in Little Ilford, and only a third of residents are owner-occupiers. This area is where the Bangladeshis are concentrated. In the west is the Green Street area, a real little India in its thriving shopping centre. The Indian population is centred here, straddling Green Street itself, the western side of which forms an outpost in the new Stratford & Bow constituency. People generally think of the Indian Hindu population as being concentrated in Leicester, west London centred on Ealing, and north London centred on Harrow, but there is also a concentration here and in neighbouring Ilford. West Ham FC, despite its name, actually sat on the East Ham side of the street, but their old Boleyn Ground has been redeveloped into 800 mostly private homes. There was once a castle here, still recognised in the name of a pub. In the east is East Ham proper. The housing is mainly smaller than in Manor Park but of a similar vintage, although there are more recent council estates interspersed. At the north-east corner, jammed in between the east coast mainline and the Roding, is the large Hathaway Crescent estate. There is also a lot more council housing in the south of east Ham, and it is in these two areas where the black population is highest. The Tamil community is centred on Wall End ward, between the town centre and the Roding. East Ham is more mixed than Green Street, with a higher white population, and no one community dominating.
One other major feature of the seat is the high level of private renting - the 9th highest in the country. Nowhere is owner-occupation more than half households. Many fewer homes are owner-occupied than they used to be, as this is an area where much of the private housing has been snapped up by landlords over the years - as many households rent privately as own their property and overcrowding is rife. As elsewhere in the inner city, right to buy has had less effect on the number of council homes, but social renting is not high for inner London. Economically this is a very working class seat, with low managerial and high routine workers for London, and little internal variation . It is also one of the youngest seats in England, as a result of the large number of ethnic minority households in overcrowded rental accommodation. Consequently its student numbers and educational qualifications are surprisingly high for such a working class seat. The overcrowding and new development in the south of the old seat led to East Ham being a very large seat, with an electorate of nearly 90,000. As a result the boundary changes are quite substantial here. The whole of the redeveloped area of Beckton, and the Royal Docks, alongside the river Thames, has been moved to West Ham,which has made the present seat much more uniform in character, although not significantly changing its demographics, or its politics.
Put all this together and you have a recipe for a very safe Labour seat, and indeed until 2019, when Labour slipped a bit, it was the safest Labour seat outside Merseyside. Locally all the wards are safe for Labour, and have been since 1994. There was Respect activity in the borough in the first decade of the century, and they finished second here in the 2005 General Election, but never managed to win any councillors. In 2024 the Muslim independent did not poll as highly as in neighbouring seats, despite nearly half the electorate being muslim, and the Labour vote held up better. The MP here is Stephen Timms, first elected at a by-election in 1994 prior to which he was leader of Newham Council. He was a senior minister under the last Labour government, and survived a stabbing attack at a constituency surgery, not the only one in recent years, and an illustration that being an MP has become more dangerous.
Census data: Owner-occupied 39% (544/575 in England & Wales), private rented 39% (9th), social rented 22% (119th).
: White 20%(574th), Black 13%(37th), South Asian 52%(3rd), Mixed 3%(187th), Other 12%(46th)
: Managerial & professional 28% (529th), Routine & Semi-routine 34% (130th)
: Degree 34% (240th), Minimal qualifications 35% (75th)
: Students 14% (46th), Over 65: 8% (563rd)
: Muslim 47%(4th), Hindu 10%(13th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from East Ham
80% of the old seat is in the new one, with 20% going to West Ham & Beckton
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 47,124 | 83.2 | 41,703 | 76.3 | 36,748 | 77.8 | 19,570 | 51.6 |
| Conservative | 7,241 | 12.8 | 8,527 | 15.6 | 6,885 | 14.6 | 3,876 | 10.2 |
| Liberal Democrat | 656 | 1.2 | 2,158 | 4.0 | 1,685 | 3.6 | 1,210 | 3.2 |
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 697 | 1.2 | 1,107 | 2.0 | 924 | 2.0 | 1,340 | 3.5 |
| Green | 474 | 0.8 | 883 | 1.6 | 755 | 1.6 | 4,226 | 11.2 |
| Other | 451 | 0.8 | 250 | 0.5 | 250 | 0.5 | 7,670 | 20.2 |
| Majority | 39,883 | 70.4 | 33,176 | 60.7 | 29,863 | 63.2 | 12,863 | 33.9 |
