Post by John Chanin on Aug 18, 2023 7:10:13 GMT
Any cursory examination of the demographic statistics linked to these profiles will show that London is different. Owner-occupation is far lower. Costs of housing mean a much larger private rented sector, and social housing tenants remain high, as these same costs plus a preponderance of flats have limited the impact of right to buy. Housing costs have generated overcrowding, which has greatly increased the population (and electorate) in these seats, meaning that almost all inner London seats have needed to be cut down in the latest boundary review, despite a high number of people ineligible to vote. London is also very young, older people tending to move out, which both in itself creates a higher proportion with qualifications, and the nature of the job market, with a largely absent manufacturing sector, attracts the well-qualified from across the country. There is a further factor. London is very cosmopolitan, attracting people from all over the world, not just Britain. Most immigrant communities place a high value on qualifications, as a way of escaping poverty, and of negating real or perceived discrimination. The results of this are highly qualified people doing managerial jobs, but living in poor rented housing. And a service sector of people who are among the poorest in the country, as government policy has firstly reduced the availability of cheap rented council housing, preferring to subsidize private rents, and then appalled by the cost of its own policy, now refuses to subsidize these rents, increasing in real terms, driving households into poverty. Again this is exacerbated by long travel times to work, with associated transport costs, and a reduction in the quality of life.
Ilford South exemplifies these realities. It is a densely packed urban seat touching the east bank of the river Roding, which blends imperceptibly into Barking to the south. The seat is bisected by the east coast mainline from Liverpool Street, providing good connections into central London. Ilford’s substantial town centre sits in the north-west corner of the seat. In the north-east is the delightfully named Seven Kings, although disappointingly there is no royal connection - the name is a corruption. Like the other ethnic minority seats in this part of London, the seat is significantly oversized. The Boundary Commission has moved the two north-westerly wards, covering Valentines Park, Cranbrook alongside the river, and the south side of Gants Hill, to the Ilford North seat. In exchange it gains the Chadwell Heath ward of Barking - an area that really ought to be in Redbridge anyway, as it consists of a strange northward protrusion in the latter borough. This will have no political effect.
The old part of the seat is majority Asian throughout, with equal Indian and Pakistani populations and nearly as many Bangladeshis. It is the 8th most Hindu, the 11th most Muslim, and the 10th most Sikh in England & Wales, very similar to East Ham to the south-west, and fourth in the country for the smallest number of white inhabitants. To the west in the Loxford area and central Ilford there is also a large black population as well as asian. Chadwell Heath however has an ethnic mix closer to Barking, with a much higher white population (although still a minority), and these two areas are also where the small amount of social housing in the seat is concentrated. Private renting is very high across the seat, though lower towards the Barking border in the south-east where owner-occupation remains (just) a majority. Economically the area is fairly uniform, with occupational classification following the tenure mix. The most up market part of the old seat alongside the Roding has been removed in the latest boundary changes. Overall this is a fairly prosperous, young, and well educated seat, as well as an ethnic minority dominated one.
Go back in time to the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and this was a key marginal seat. However the demographic change has moved it ever more firmly into the Labour column, and it is now the 30th safest Labour seat in the country. At local level all wards have been Labour held since 2010 when the last Liberal Democrats were defeated. The current MP is Momentum linked Sam Tarry, newly elected in 2019 replacing Mike Gapes who originally won the seat from the Conservatives in 1992, but increasingly disaffected, defected to the Independent Group for Change prior to the 2019 election. As shown in the table below Gapes received just 7% of the vote under his new label. Tarry’s late selection came with controversy after the favourite, council leader Jas Athwal, a Sikh, was barred following allegations of sexual harassment, later dismissed. Ilford South Labour Party have now corrected what they saw as an injustice, and selected Athwal to fight the 2024 election. Tarry will have to find a new constituency if he wishes his political career to continue.
Athwal, long-term leader of Redbridge Council, and a small businessman prior to this, did not have the 2024 election all his own way. Labour’s vote dropped by more than a third (as did the Conservatives), and the votes went not to the Liberal Democrats, or very much to Reform, but to the Greens, and most particularly in a seat that is over 40% Muslim, to an independent campaigning on Gaza, but also tapping into wider dissatisfaction among Muslims. This was of course a nationwide trend, but not enough to threaten Labour victory in a very safe seat.
Census data: Owner-occupied 49% (510/575 in England & Wales), private rented 37% (21st), social rented 14% (346th).
: White 22%(572nd), Black 11%(46th), South Asian 52%(4th), Mixed 4%(157th), Other 12%(44th)
: Managerial & professional 35% (361st), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (308th)
: Degree 38% (145th), Minimal qualifications 30% (217th)
: Students 12% (56th), Over 65: 10% (548th)
: Muslim 41%(11th), Hindu 11%(8th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Ilford South, and 10% from Dagenham & Rainham
79% of the old seat is in the new one, with 21% going to Ilford North
Ilford South exemplifies these realities. It is a densely packed urban seat touching the east bank of the river Roding, which blends imperceptibly into Barking to the south. The seat is bisected by the east coast mainline from Liverpool Street, providing good connections into central London. Ilford’s substantial town centre sits in the north-west corner of the seat. In the north-east is the delightfully named Seven Kings, although disappointingly there is no royal connection - the name is a corruption. Like the other ethnic minority seats in this part of London, the seat is significantly oversized. The Boundary Commission has moved the two north-westerly wards, covering Valentines Park, Cranbrook alongside the river, and the south side of Gants Hill, to the Ilford North seat. In exchange it gains the Chadwell Heath ward of Barking - an area that really ought to be in Redbridge anyway, as it consists of a strange northward protrusion in the latter borough. This will have no political effect.
The old part of the seat is majority Asian throughout, with equal Indian and Pakistani populations and nearly as many Bangladeshis. It is the 8th most Hindu, the 11th most Muslim, and the 10th most Sikh in England & Wales, very similar to East Ham to the south-west, and fourth in the country for the smallest number of white inhabitants. To the west in the Loxford area and central Ilford there is also a large black population as well as asian. Chadwell Heath however has an ethnic mix closer to Barking, with a much higher white population (although still a minority), and these two areas are also where the small amount of social housing in the seat is concentrated. Private renting is very high across the seat, though lower towards the Barking border in the south-east where owner-occupation remains (just) a majority. Economically the area is fairly uniform, with occupational classification following the tenure mix. The most up market part of the old seat alongside the Roding has been removed in the latest boundary changes. Overall this is a fairly prosperous, young, and well educated seat, as well as an ethnic minority dominated one.
Go back in time to the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s and this was a key marginal seat. However the demographic change has moved it ever more firmly into the Labour column, and it is now the 30th safest Labour seat in the country. At local level all wards have been Labour held since 2010 when the last Liberal Democrats were defeated. The current MP is Momentum linked Sam Tarry, newly elected in 2019 replacing Mike Gapes who originally won the seat from the Conservatives in 1992, but increasingly disaffected, defected to the Independent Group for Change prior to the 2019 election. As shown in the table below Gapes received just 7% of the vote under his new label. Tarry’s late selection came with controversy after the favourite, council leader Jas Athwal, a Sikh, was barred following allegations of sexual harassment, later dismissed. Ilford South Labour Party have now corrected what they saw as an injustice, and selected Athwal to fight the 2024 election. Tarry will have to find a new constituency if he wishes his political career to continue.
Athwal, long-term leader of Redbridge Council, and a small businessman prior to this, did not have the 2024 election all his own way. Labour’s vote dropped by more than a third (as did the Conservatives), and the votes went not to the Liberal Democrats, or very much to Reform, but to the Greens, and most particularly in a seat that is over 40% Muslim, to an independent campaigning on Gaza, but also tapping into wider dissatisfaction among Muslims. This was of course a nationwide trend, but not enough to threaten Labour victory in a very safe seat.
Census data: Owner-occupied 49% (510/575 in England & Wales), private rented 37% (21st), social rented 14% (346th).
: White 22%(572nd), Black 11%(46th), South Asian 52%(4th), Mixed 4%(157th), Other 12%(44th)
: Managerial & professional 35% (361st), Routine & Semi-routine 27% (308th)
: Degree 38% (145th), Minimal qualifications 30% (217th)
: Students 12% (56th), Over 65: 10% (548th)
: Muslim 41%(11th), Hindu 11%(8th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 90% from Ilford South, and 10% from Dagenham & Rainham
79% of the old seat is in the new one, with 21% going to Ilford North
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 43,724 | 75.8 | 35,085 | 65.6 | 30,246 | 65.2 | 16,537 | 40.2 |
| Conservative | 12,077 | 20.9 | 10,984 | 20.5 | 9,837 | 21.2 | 6,142 | 14.9 |
| Liberal Democrat | 772 | 1.3 | 1,795 | 3.4 | 1,546 | 3.3 | 1,340 | 3.3 |
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 477 | 0.8 | 1,008 | 1.9 | 1,034 | 2.2 | 2,329 | 5.7 |
| Green | 542 | 0.9 | 714 | 1.3 | 623 | 1.3 | 3,437 | 8.3 |
| Workers | 1,366 | 3.3 | ||||||
| Other | 65 | 0.1 | 3,891 | 7.3 | 3,082 | 6.7 | 10,019 | 24.3 |
| Majority | 31,647 | 54.9 | 24,101 | 45.1 | 20,409 | 44.0 | 6,894 | 16.7 |
