Post by John Chanin on Aug 17, 2023 13:47:32 GMT
Dagenham is most famous for the enormous Becontree housing estate, built after the first world war on land outside the boundaries, and the then built-up area of London. However most of the estate is now in the Barking constituency following the transfer of 3 wards to the undersized seat in 2010. The Barking & Dagenham wards in this seat form a narrow north-south strip along the east of the borough. The northern boundary is the A12, around which there is some small private terraced housing, south of which is Becontree Heath, part of the estate, and still 40% council tenants. In the boundary changes a chunk of the Becontree estate in Valence ward has been moved back into the seat, in place of Chadwell Heath. To the east is an area alongside the river Rom, which is really part of Romford, and is owner-occupied suburbia typical of that town, with demographics to match. The Dagenham section is non-continuous, and the southern section, between the District Line and the A13, is more mixed. South of the A13, is an industrial area on the Thames flood plain, containing the famous Ford car plant, that traditionally was the main employer in the area (now sadly diminished).
The 2010 reorganization that abolished the Hornchurch seat moved its southern wards into this constituency. Elm Park is part of Hornchurch proper while South Hornchurch and Rainham are separate settlements closer to the river. All are best described as modest private housing built since the first world war, although there is a large council estate in Beam Park. This area has been slightly enhanced by the latest boundary changes, with the addition of some 2500 voters. There is an extensive area of marshland beside the river (Rainham marshes) similar to that further downstream, separating Rainham from the built up areas of Thurrock.
The old Hornchurch seat was a marginal, although tending towards the Conservatives on a long term basis. The Conservatives won it back from Labour in 2005. The southern wards were generally the more Labour part of the seat, although locally they have been usually won by the ubiquitous Residents Associations in Havering. Dagenham however has historically been monolithically Labour with majorities of more than 20,000, and all the wards in this seat remain Labour at a local level. Social and political change has however moved the area slowly and steadily towards the Conservatives nationally. While social renting remains relatively high, it now accounts for only a quarter of households. Like other seats in south Essex there has been a strong right-wing presence moving from BNP to UKIP to Brexit Party. Counter balancing this has been a rapid recent growth in ethnic minorities, particularly of African origin, moving out of the city to cheap rented and owner-occupied housing, who now form over a third of the population. Private renting has soared over the last 10 years. In the Dagenham section white households barely form a majority now, although the Havering section remains whiter. This remains a very working class seat, with high levels of routine occupations and low levels of managerial, more reminiscent of many northern and midlands seats than London. Educational qualifications are particularly low, despite the generally young population.
The focus on leaving the EU in the 2019 election turned the seat into an ultra marginal, with MP Jon Cruddas holding on by less than 300 votes. The area voted roughly two-thirds for Leave in the 2016 referendum. Cruddas was first elected in 2001, and is best known for running Labour’s policy review under the leadership of Ed Miliband, and of thinking hard about how to reconcile Labour’s old and new bases of support, a key issue in his constituency. It is hard to assess the boundary changes. Valence is a more Labour than Chadwell Heath, but the additions in Havering are more Conservative. On balance it probably makes little difference.
The 2024 result illustrated some of the general themes of the election. Labour’s majority returned to a comfortable level, but on a reduced share of the vote. The Conservative vote more than halved, while Reform moved into an easy second place based on working class votes. And the significant Muslim population deserted Labour, voting in this case for the Greens. Cruddas stood down at the election, and the new MP is Margaret Mullane, a local councillor, and Cruddas former office manager.
Census data: Owner-occupied 58% (430/575 in England & Wales), private rented 20% (226th), social rented 23% (91st).
: White 58%(513th), Black 18%(24th), South Asian 15%(65th), Mixed 4%(122nd), Other 5%(140th)
: Managerial & professional 31% (494th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (187th)
: Degree 30% (347th), Minimal qualifications 34% (83rd)
: Students 9% (128th) , Over 65: 13% (501st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 87% from Dagenham & Rainham, 9% from Barking, and 3% from Hornchurch & Upminster.
90% of the old seat is in the new one, with 10% going to Ilford South
The 2010 reorganization that abolished the Hornchurch seat moved its southern wards into this constituency. Elm Park is part of Hornchurch proper while South Hornchurch and Rainham are separate settlements closer to the river. All are best described as modest private housing built since the first world war, although there is a large council estate in Beam Park. This area has been slightly enhanced by the latest boundary changes, with the addition of some 2500 voters. There is an extensive area of marshland beside the river (Rainham marshes) similar to that further downstream, separating Rainham from the built up areas of Thurrock.
The old Hornchurch seat was a marginal, although tending towards the Conservatives on a long term basis. The Conservatives won it back from Labour in 2005. The southern wards were generally the more Labour part of the seat, although locally they have been usually won by the ubiquitous Residents Associations in Havering. Dagenham however has historically been monolithically Labour with majorities of more than 20,000, and all the wards in this seat remain Labour at a local level. Social and political change has however moved the area slowly and steadily towards the Conservatives nationally. While social renting remains relatively high, it now accounts for only a quarter of households. Like other seats in south Essex there has been a strong right-wing presence moving from BNP to UKIP to Brexit Party. Counter balancing this has been a rapid recent growth in ethnic minorities, particularly of African origin, moving out of the city to cheap rented and owner-occupied housing, who now form over a third of the population. Private renting has soared over the last 10 years. In the Dagenham section white households barely form a majority now, although the Havering section remains whiter. This remains a very working class seat, with high levels of routine occupations and low levels of managerial, more reminiscent of many northern and midlands seats than London. Educational qualifications are particularly low, despite the generally young population.
The focus on leaving the EU in the 2019 election turned the seat into an ultra marginal, with MP Jon Cruddas holding on by less than 300 votes. The area voted roughly two-thirds for Leave in the 2016 referendum. Cruddas was first elected in 2001, and is best known for running Labour’s policy review under the leadership of Ed Miliband, and of thinking hard about how to reconcile Labour’s old and new bases of support, a key issue in his constituency. It is hard to assess the boundary changes. Valence is a more Labour than Chadwell Heath, but the additions in Havering are more Conservative. On balance it probably makes little difference.
The 2024 result illustrated some of the general themes of the election. Labour’s majority returned to a comfortable level, but on a reduced share of the vote. The Conservative vote more than halved, while Reform moved into an easy second place based on working class votes. And the significant Muslim population deserted Labour, voting in this case for the Greens. Cruddas stood down at the election, and the new MP is Margaret Mullane, a local councillor, and Cruddas former office manager.
Census data: Owner-occupied 58% (430/575 in England & Wales), private rented 20% (226th), social rented 23% (91st).
: White 58%(513th), Black 18%(24th), South Asian 15%(65th), Mixed 4%(122nd), Other 5%(140th)
: Managerial & professional 31% (494th), Routine & Semi-routine 31% (187th)
: Degree 30% (347th), Minimal qualifications 34% (83rd)
: Students 9% (128th) , Over 65: 13% (501st)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 87% from Dagenham & Rainham, 9% from Barking, and 3% from Hornchurch & Upminster.
90% of the old seat is in the new one, with 10% going to Ilford South
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 22,958 | 50.1 | 19,468 | 44.5 | 19,676 | 44.7 | 16,571 | 42.6 |
| Conservative | 18,306 | 39.9 | 19,175 | 43.8 | 18,970 | 43.1 | 6,926 | 17.8 |
| Liberal Democrat | 465 | 1.0 | 1,182 | 2.7 | 1,338 | 3.0 | 1,033 | 2.7 |
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 3,246 | 7.1 | 2,887 | 6.6 | 2,913 | 6.6 | 9,398 | 24.2 |
| Green | 544 | 1.2 | 602 | 1.4 | 674 | 1.5 | 4,184 | 10.8 |
| Other | 324 | 0.7 | 421 | 1.0 | 421 | 1.0 | 755 | 1.9 |
| Majority | 4,652 | 10.1 | 293 | 0.7 | 706 | 1.6 | 7,173 | 18.5 |