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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 18, 2024 14:35:52 GMT
Spotted in the Craven Herald & Pioneer: “Independent Keith Tordoff was originally the Yorkshire Party candidate but was deselected when he promised free chickens for 2,000 households.” Outfoxed.
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Dan
Animal Welfare Party
Believes we need more localism in our politics
Posts: 812
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Post by Dan on Apr 19, 2024 8:33:02 GMT
It seems the way of elections these days that most parties/candidates are tempted into offering the electorate (or at least parts of it) something for free if they vote for them.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 19, 2024 10:35:36 GMT
It seems the way of elections these days that most parties/candidates are tempted into offering the electorate (or at least parts of it) something for free if they vote for them. My dear chap! It was ever thus! Once it was good honest beer and a supper at the expense of the candidate. Good obvious in-yer-face bribery. Then we made honest bribery illegal and substituted legal bribery, in much larger sums , of money compulsorily filched from the public's pocket, in goodies and giveaways by by 'legitimate' and 'honest' new modern politicians. This so much better don't you think?
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Post by threecrowns on Apr 26, 2024 11:37:46 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,730
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 12:08:19 GMT
Goes almost without saying that if the Tories *do* lose this it will be a truly terrible result for them and an excellent one for Labour - though even falling short they might fancy their chances of also carrying the old Selby district following last year's byelection?
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Post by kvasir on Apr 26, 2024 15:22:31 GMT
In order for the Labour Party to win, they need to hope the Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberals are happy to vote for David Skaith rather than staying with the Liberals or, worse, tactically voting Conservative against him. David Skaith should not spook the Liberals, he's relatively moderate Labour (or more accurately he's running that way).
Labour will need to win Selby, and probably urban Skipton. A turnout differential is also important. If David Skaith can keep the market town margins tighter than normal too that would useful. But I do think it all comes down to Harrogate/Knaresborough.
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Apr 26, 2024 16:21:44 GMT
I think the Liberal vote is in Ryedale.
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Post by aargauer on Apr 26, 2024 16:50:59 GMT
In order for the Labour Party to win, they need to hope the Harrogate and Knaresborough Liberals are happy to vote for David Skaith rather than staying with the Liberals or, worse, tactically voting Conservative against him. David Skaith should not spook the Liberals, he's relatively moderate Labour (or more accurately he's running that way). Labour will need to win Selby, and probably urban Skipton. A turnout differential is also important. If David Skaith can keep the market town margins tighter than normal too that would useful. But I do think it all comes down to Harrogate/Knaresborough. In anything like normal times, I would not imagine the liberal vote to be at all labour inclined there. Its barbour jacket territory.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 28, 2024 12:14:59 GMT
Harrogate has some fairly ordinary areas alongside the posh bits. It's the countryside surrounding it that is the real barbour jacket territory.
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Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 13:11:30 GMT
The Observer mentions a poll in this area which put Labour narrowly ahead.
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Post by bluelabour on Apr 28, 2024 16:00:26 GMT
The Observer mentions a poll in this area which put Labour narrowly ahead. As someone who grew up in North Yorkshire that would be an astonishing result to me. There is real anger about the abolition of the old districts and the centralisation of the council here. This is something that various friends and family from different sides of the county have brought up to me unprompted – they feel like they're being deprived of accessible, genuinely local government. It's a huge, unwieldy and poorly-connected county spanning from the edges of Doncaster to Teesside and Filey to Hawes which all seem worlds apart to me and it does seem absurd to expect a single behemoth to cover it all. People have also questioned the need or suitability for a mayoral role. I don't think any of this will be helpful to the Tory candidate. My grandmother, an 85-year-old former secretary of the Richmond Conservatives who lives in Hawes, will be voting Lib Dem for the first time in her life. In her words 'voting for the person not the party'. Felicity Cunliffe-Lister, Countess of Swinton, is a respected local businesswoman who is well-known throughout the Yorkshire Dales. She will do well in the old Richmondshire, Harrogate and Hambleton districts. We could see something akin to the Mid Beds by-election, with the Lib Dems taking just enough votes off the Tories in their traditional rural heartlands to get Labour over the line. The Conservative candidate is a bit of marmite character – he is clearly very hard-working and energetic, but also comes across as an ambitious, partisan career politician which probably isn't helpful in the current environment. His pronouncements about the Grand Hotel in Scarborough have raised more questions than they've answered. He will do well in his own patch (Malton) where he is undoubtedly popular. I don't know a lot about the Labour candidate, but being from York the large opposition vote there will coalesce around him and he seems to also be targeting (sensibly) Scarborough, Whitby and Selby, as well as Harrogate which could throw up an interesting result.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,392
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 28, 2024 16:43:26 GMT
The Observer mentions a poll in this area which put Labour narrowly ahead. As someone who grew up in North Yorkshire that would be an astonishing result to me. There is real anger about the abolition of the old districts and the centralisation of the council here. This is something that various friends and family from different sides of the county have brought up to me unprompted – they feel like they're being deprived of accessible, genuinely local government. It's a huge, unwieldy and poorly-connected county spanning from the edges of Doncaster to Teesside and Filey to Hawes which all seem worlds apart to me and it does seem absurd to expect a single behemoth to cover it all. People have also questioned the need or suitability for a mayoral role. I don't think any of this will be helpful to the Tory candidate. Doesn’t the new council have at least a base in the former HQs (or other office) in each of the former districts? I thought the idea of these mergers was really to cut costs on the number of executive teams all on six figure salaries, and the county council, but maintain at least a physical presence in the former districts. Though no doubt there would be a managed decline over time and shutting of satellite offices as more things can be done online. I’ve seen job adverts for the new NY Council and they often say ‘hybrid working, with office base in Harrogate, Selby, Scarborough, etc’. So while the HQ being in Northallerton will feel distant for many, surely there will be a base in each district.
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 28, 2024 16:52:25 GMT
The Observer mentions a poll in this area which put Labour narrowly ahead. I've had a look into this, and it appears to be the North Yorkshire output from YouGov's most recent MRP modelling: Lab 34 C 31 LD 14 Grn 7. So not a poll of this mayoral race.
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Post by bluelabour on Apr 28, 2024 17:07:51 GMT
As someone who grew up in North Yorkshire that would be an astonishing result to me. There is real anger about the abolition of the old districts and the centralisation of the council here. This is something that various friends and family from different sides of the county have brought up to me unprompted – they feel like they're being deprived of accessible, genuinely local government. It's a huge, unwieldy and poorly-connected county spanning from the edges of Doncaster to Teesside and Filey to Hawes which all seem worlds apart to me and it does seem absurd to expect a single behemoth to cover it all. People have also questioned the need or suitability for a mayoral role. I don't think any of this will be helpful to the Tory candidate. Doesn’t the new council have at least a base in the former HQs (or other office) in each of the former districts? I thought the idea of these mergers was really to cut costs on the number of executive teams all on six figure salaries, and the county council, but maintain at least a physical presence in the former districts. Though no doubt there would be a managed decline over time and shutting of satellite offices as more things can be done online. I’ve seen job adverts for the new NY Council and they often say ‘hybrid working, with office base in Harrogate, Selby, Scarborough, etc’. So while the HQ being in Northallerton will feel distant for many, surely there will be a base in each district. Probably true, I think the issue people were really referencing to me was losing their local councillor, as wards were merged to cover geographically huge areas, particularly in the Dales.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,689
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 28, 2024 17:49:15 GMT
Doesn’t the new council have at least a base in the former HQs (or other office) in each of the former districts? I thought the idea of these mergers was really to cut costs on the number of executive teams all on six figure salaries, and the county council, but maintain at least a physical presence in the former districts. Though no doubt there would be a managed decline over time and shutting of satellite offices as more things can be done online. I’ve seen job adverts for the new NY Council and they often say ‘hybrid working, with office base in Harrogate, Selby, Scarborough, etc’. So while the HQ being in Northallerton will feel distant for many, surely there will be a base in each district. Probably true, I think the issue people were really referencing to me was losing their local councillor, as wards were merged to cover geographically huge areas, particularly in the Dales. The distance to "head office" and the slashing of representation is what's been mentioned to me. We've gone from 7.5 councillors to 2, one never responds to locals, the other is ineffectual.
After a long wait we've finally received the "booklet" from the council with the candidates' pitches. I've had Tory-leaning voters and former Conservative members complaining that Duncan is too Socialist for them - buying up businesses, using the rates to provide things for free.
At the hustings here last week (where Labour and Conservative were absent) the biggest issue resonating with the audience was getting transport to link up. All the "free owls!" stuff left people cold. Personal anecdote: I used to be able to get to Sheffield by bus: 11am Coastliner connected with 3pm National Express in Leeds. Now the Coastliner leaves 15 minutes later and the National Express leaves 15 minutes earlier, leaving a 2.5 hour gap to the next connection. Just a small finger on the scales of commerce is needed there, not free stuff.
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 28, 2024 18:17:16 GMT
As someone who grew up in North Yorkshire that would be an astonishing result to me. There is real anger about the abolition of the old districts and the centralisation of the council here. This is something that various friends and family from different sides of the county have brought up to me unprompted – they feel like they're being deprived of accessible, genuinely local government. It's a huge, unwieldy and poorly-connected county spanning from the edges of Doncaster to Teesside and Filey to Hawes which all seem worlds apart to me and it does seem absurd to expect a single behemoth to cover it all. People have also questioned the need or suitability for a mayoral role. I don't think any of this will be helpful to the Tory candidate. Doesn’t the new council have at least a base in the former HQs (or other office) in each of the former districts? I thought the idea of these mergers was really to cut costs on the number of executive teams all on six figure salaries, and the county council, but maintain at least a physical presence in the former districts. Though no doubt there would be a managed decline over time and shutting of satellite offices as more things can be done online. I’ve seen job adverts for the new NY Council and they often say ‘hybrid working, with office base in Harrogate, Selby, Scarborough, etc’. So while the HQ being in Northallerton will feel distant for many, surely there will be a base in each district. The first thing they did was double councillor allowances, appointed a new CEO on an even higher salary and spent millions paying off the old senior officers. The idea that it will bring efficient local government to an area the size of a small country is frankly ludicrous.
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Post by kvasir on Apr 28, 2024 20:33:13 GMT
The combined North Yorkshire constituency results of the 1997 General Election look like this:
Conservatives- 168,210 39.98% Labour- 138,046 32.81% Liberal Democrats- 96,941 23.04% Other- 17,578 4.18%
Obviously 1997 was a long time ago and things have changed. But this is the last time that Labour had been out of power a long time with a deeply unpopular Conservative Party. Turnout back then was 74.09% and the vote for North Yorkshire Mayoral Election will be a lot lower.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 28, 2024 20:39:07 GMT
The EU constituency of north Yorkshire was 34 Lab 38 Tory in 94
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 0:26:44 GMT
The EU constituency of north Yorkshire was 34 Lab 38 Tory in 94 Excluded Richmond
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2024 5:40:59 GMT
Turnout back then was 74.09% and the vote for North Yorkshire Mayoral Election will be a lot lower. Turnout was 25% in 2021 for the PCC and 14% for the PCC by-election later that year. I expect that it might be towards the by-election turnout rather than the 2021 main elections turnout.
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