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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:26:47 GMT
Portsmouth
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Oct 19, 2023 9:06:56 GMT
Ok. The situation after the last election was as follows: LD minority administration.
So the make up is LD 18, Cons 8, Lab 7, the George Madgwick Party (PiP) 6 and Non aligned independents (aka the Corkery Crew) 3.
The vote distribution was as follows:
LD 29% - 7 seats Lab 28% - 2 seats Cons 19% - 1 seat PiP 16% - 3 seats Independent 2% - 1 seat (Cal C.)
Split Wards are:
Cosham 2 Lab/ 1 Con - Con up in 24 Copnor - 2 Cons/ 1 Pip Con up in 24 Hilsea - 2 PiP/ 1 Con Con up in 24 Charles Dickens - 2 Non Aligned/ 1 Lab - Non Aligned (Kirsty Mellor) up in 2024 Fratton - 2LD/ 1 Lab - LD up in 2024 Central Southsea - 2 Lab/ 1 LD - 1 Lab up in 2024 St Judes - 1 LD/ 1 Lab/ 1 Non Aligned - LD up in 2024 Eastney and Craneswater - 2 LD/ 1 Cons - Cons up in 2024
Other defences next year are PIP in Paulsgrove, Cons in Drayton and Farlington, LD in Nelson/ Baffins/ Milton/ St Thomas.
The LD's have now selected all their candidates for next year in what may (emphasis) be a marking time election if the rumoured boundary changes kick in for 2025. At some stage the electorate may get a year off from focus leaflets (others are available) but not for the foreseeable.
The big issue is housing. And traffic. And services. In a densely populated city and green space is valued and thus all parties go NIMBY if there is a threat to the green fabric so the recent planning decision for the St James site in Milton has not been rapturously received. Mind the local LD's did cunningly position themselves against the proposals (the administration did put an offer on the site) so they can point and say "not us guv".
Unlike other councils in Hampshire the Council is relatively solvent due to not having sold it's port or it's council house stock so is pretty asset rich - so is able to pay for some eye catching retail policies (I.e free buses on Sundays etc).
So what to watch for? On current form the Tories will lose their last Councillor in the Portsmouth South constituency in Eastney and Craneswater and will be reduced to a single Councillor on Portsea Island with one representative in Copnor.
The George Madgwick collective (the Portsmouth Independents) will be looking to gain both Copnor and Hilsea (I am still laughing at that result last year) with Labour picking up the last Cosham seat.
Tbc...
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Oct 19, 2023 19:37:58 GMT
....the sarf...
Nelson should be a safe LD hold; the Tories are apparently targeting Baffins where the LD cabinet member Darren Sanders is up. They finished 3rd last year behind the PiP which when one considers they lost the neighbouring ward of Copnor (and are facing a problematic defence in the face of an ongoing PiP horde this year) seems a weird choice of resource allocation. Another cabinet member up is Kimberley Barrett in Milton, where Labour have come close in the last two years but GVJ won a tad more comfortably last year. Eastney and Craneswater has been mentioned but one to watch is the Labour performance- they moved into second place last year and will look to cement that going forward.
How Suzy Horton held on on Central Southsea is anyone's guess but it is the Labour candidate up this year, whilst there will be the usual Lab/LD battles in Fratton/St Judes/ St Thomas whilst it will be fascinating to see what Labour can achieve in Charles Dickens where the ex Labour, now independent Councillor is up.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 18:42:59 GMT
Here's a ward by ward preview, starting with updated ones that I managed to do last year:
Paulsgrove
This is one of the three mainland Portsmouth wards and is at the extreme north west of the city. As a mainland ward it is also not flat, with it being geographically situated on the Portsmouth part of the western south face of Portsdown Hill (the one hill partially in the city), the flat ground between that part of the hill and Portsmouth Harbour and Horsea Island (a former island, now a peninsular).
The communities in the ward are: Paulsgrove itself which is a large post war council estate, some of which is now owner occupied (especially in the south and south west flatter areas of the estate). This was built on the site of the (last) Portsmouth Race Course and backs onto the old chalk pits that carry on towards the east outside the ward. On the cusp of the city at the top of the hill is DSTL and Qinetic (both of which are at least partially in neighbouring boroughs) with Paulsgrove itself bounding Portchester in Fareham Borough directly to the west. Wymering, to the direct east of Paulsgrove, is split into two, north/south, by Southampton Road, and the western part of north Wymering is in this ward. It is indistinguishable from the Paulsgrove estate to its west as a continuation of the council estate. Horsea Island contains Port Solent, a 1980s residential and retail development which includes a marina. It is upscale (as might be expected) but also incongruously includes the city's waste and recycling centre (but no tip, Portsmouth no longer does landfill).
Traditionally Paulsgrove was a Labour stronghold but, despite the boundary changes in 2002 being minor, it was never a reliable seat for them post then, with them only having all three councillors for short periods of time between then and now. The basic weakness can be attributed to the differential turnout in Port Solent and Paulsgrove & its bit of Wymering with Port Solent voting very heavily Conservative with a healthy turnout and the rest of the ward having a very poor turnout and not always being as monolithically Labour. this was shown by the Conservatives winning the ward in 2004 (by 7 votes), a seat that was retained with a much increased majority in 2008. Though Labour got back to having all three seats in the ward in 2012, in 2014 this seat went UKIP and then the subsequent two wins went to the Conservatives and a Labour hold respectively. Labour's representation in the ward ended with their councillor leaving the party later in 2016 over Corbyn's leadership with the Conservative picking up the UKIP seat in 2018 and retaining their other seat in 2019. In 2021 an insurgent independent won the seat and subsequently created the Portsmouth Independents Party who also picked up the next seat in 2022. In both cases decent/large margins over the Conservatives. In 2023 this trend continued with Portsmouth Independents picking up the last seat in the ward, again by over 800 from the Conservatives (on a 22% turnout) who narrowly held onto a very distant second, 21 votes ahead of Labour.
Winners: 2002 - Lab x3, 2003 - Lab, 2004 - Con, 2006 - Lab, 2007 - Lab, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Lab, 2011 - Lab, 2012 - Lab, 2014 - UKIP, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Lab, 2018 - Con, 2019 - Con, 2021 - Ind, 2022 - PIP, 2023 - PIP
Up this year: PIP (Group Leader) (Served 2021-)
2023
Chris Dike PompyInd 1279 55.9% Charlie Douglas C 446 19.5% Eloise Hadenham Lab 425 18.6% Helena Cole LD 136 5.9%
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 18:48:12 GMT
Cosham
This the middle of the three mainland wards of the city, so with Paulsgrove to its direct west it has a topographical profile that is almost identical, other than not having any part that juts out into a harbour with its main southern boundary being Port Creek, the small linear sea creek that separates the mainland part of the city from the bulk of it on Portsea Island.
The communities in the ward are: Cosham itself, which is in the middle and east of the ward and contains the main shopping and amenity areas for the mainland area of the city. It has the one station in this part of the city, a major bus interchange next door, a fire station and contains Queen Alexandra Hospital, one of the largest acute hospitals in the country on the slopes of Portsdown Hill. The community of Cosham itself contains a significant proportion of owner occupied housing but with smaller interspersed patches of privately rented housing and a handful of council housing. It borders East Cosham and Drayton to the east, and Highbury, over the railway line to the south. Wymering, the rest of it that isn't in Paulsgrove, lies to the west of Cosham and is almost entirely Council Estate, but with a higher proportion of right to buy properties than any other such estates in the city. South Wymering includes Wymering Manor, a structure that has Saxon aspects but the current building is mainly of Tudor construction, as such is among the oldest structures in Portsmouth. Abutting this area to the west, and running south of eastern Paulsgrove and abutting Port Creek and Tipner Lake (an inlet of Portsmouth Harbour) is the North Harbour and Lakeside business areas which have no residential occupation. The former is mainly retail with some industrial areas to the north (including the HQ of the cycle retailer Wiggle) and the latter is office space at the former HQ of IBM Europe (who still retain a presence in part of the complex). Highbury is largely comprised of owner occupied semi-detached homes but has an estate of council flats at the end of it. It is enclosed by the railway line and A/M27 road and so is a motor vehicle cul-de-sac as a whole. It is the home of one of the two main campuses of one of the city's FE college.
Prior to 2002 Cosham (which was little changed in that year's boundary changes) was somewhat of a bellwether seat and closely fought, and changing hands, between the Conservatives and Labour since the mid '80s. Prior to this was a period of its representation by Independents in the 1970s who hung on in dribs and drabs until the '90s with the last such independent being elected in 1991 long after his colleagues lost. This was the last to be elected under that label in Portsmouth until the above mentioned one in Paulsgrove in 2021. In 2002 Labour took all three seats in the ward but had them all picked off in the subsequent annual elections by the Conservatives, who then morphed this into a reliable seat for a decade, generally with pretty comfortable majorities, until in 2012 the Lib Dems took it from just about nowhere in a very close three way fight with the Conservatives third, aided by the deselection of the locally well thought of sitting councillor by the Tories. This was, however, a flash in the pan for the Lib Dems, the elected councillor defected to Labour before the end of the year and UKIP moved into second place the following election two years later. Normal service resumed a year later and it continued with Labour in a not very competitive second until 2019, when UKIP again took second place (with their candidate being the man who two years later would win Paulsgrove as an independent) and made it marginal once again. Labour moved back into a very clear second place in 2021 and took the seat last year for their first win in nearly 20 years by more than 200 votes. The combined vote share for Labour and Conservatives in that election was a high of 89%. In 2023 Labour picked up their second seat in the ward by nearly 300 votes.
Winners: 2002 - Lab x3, 2003 - Con, 2004 - Con, 2006 - Con, 2007 - Con, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Con, 2011 - Con, 2012 - Lib Dem, 2014 - Con, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Con, 2018 - Con, 2019 - Con x2 (inc by-election), 2021 - Con, 2022 - Lab, 2023 - Lab
Up this year: Con (Served 2019-)
2023
Mary Vallely Lab 1362 46.4% Lee Mason C 1078 36.7% Tom Oulds PompyInd 208 7.1% David Fuller LD 200 6.8% Veronika Wagner NHAction 86 2.9%
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peterl
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Monarchic Technocratic Localist
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Post by peterl on Feb 20, 2024 18:52:48 GMT
Khunanup, thank you for writing these profiles, I think this ward by ward approach is very useful and makes election night a lot more enjoyable having some background on each contest. Going forward, is there any chance you might include the full numbers from last year?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 19:01:32 GMT
Drayton & Farlington
We now get to the easternmost of the three mainland wards in the city. As with Cosham and Paulsgrove, the geographical profile is very similar with it being on the southern slope of Portsdown Hill, but in this case the southern boundary of the ward has only a small bit of Port Creek and most of it is in Langstone Harbour (which sits between Portsea and Hayling Islands), with the ward also including the Farlington Marshes Nature Reserve that juts out into the Harbour itself.
The communities in the ward are: Drayton & East Cosham (put together as they are essentially indistinguishable) is the west of the ward and contains the small industrial estate in the railway triangle, as well as another small estate to the east of that, adjacent to the A27. Other than that, this is wealthy, owner occupied suburbia and one of the only areas in the city where detached houses are not uncommon, and together with Farlington, the only places where you get them on anything approaching a wide scale in Portsmouth. It has an older demographic than most other areas of the city and next to no social housing. The only community amenities in the ward are also in Drayton with a community centre, a surgery and a small parade of shops. Farlington is the easternmost area of Portsmouth on the mainland bordering Drayton to the west and Bedhampton in Havant Borough to the east. It is of similar profile to Drayton but has a much larger industrial estate/retail park that takes up much of the area bounded by the A27 to the south and some social housing nearby in the flat area between the hill and the harbour. Up the hill has some of the most expensive housing in Portsmouth alongside a cluster of naval officer's married quarters.
As you might guess from the description, this is a ward that should be very strong for the Conservatives, and not only is it, it is also very safe. They have won every election since the 2002 (minimal) boundary changes and had not really been threatened in the directly preceding ward created in 1973. It took until 2004 for any real challenge to arise with the Lib Dems getting within 200 votes of taking the seat, which they then repeated a year later in a by-election before falling away after that. Since then the Conservatives have never got less that 50% of the vote (only in the aforementioned result in 2004 did they dip below that), and not been challenged at all, with the Lib Dems, and then more recently Labour (other than a brief UKIP cameo in 2014) taking the distant second place. This was one of only two wards that returned a Conservative last year, their second lowest ever return at a single election in Portsmouth (after 1994, when they only won this ward's predecessor). In 2023, this was the only ward that returned a Conservative councillor (formally a member for Cosham ward, defeated in 2022), a record low for the party in Portsmouth. It was also only the second time that the ward in its current form had seen a Conservative vote-share of sub-50%, but still nearly 1,000 votes ahead of Labour who retained second place just ahead of the Lib Dems
Winners: 2002 - Con x3, 2004 - Con, 2005 (by-election) - Con, 2006 - Con, 2007 - Con, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Con, 2011 - Con, 2012 - Con, 2014 - Con, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Con, 2018 - Con, 2019 - Con, 2021 - Con, 2022 - Con, 2023 - Con
Up this year: Con (Current Havant Borough and Hampshire County Councillor) (Served (this ward) 2021- (St Thomas) 2015-2019, standing down)
2023
Hannah Brent C 1654 47.7% Pooja Jha Lab 693 20.0% Richard Adair LD 620 17.9% Jaime Custerson PompyInd 280 8.1% Mervyn Harvey Grn 224 6.5%
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 19:16:43 GMT
Hilsea
We now move onto Portsea Island, the third highest populated island in the British Isles, where the bulk of Portsmouth lies. Hilsea is located in the far north and north-west of the island, and is coastal bounded to the north by Port Creek and to the west by Tipner Lake, an inlet of Portsmouth Harbour. As with all Portsea Island wards it is topographically very flat.
The communities in the ward are: Hilsea itself, a somewhat mixed suburban community which essentially has four parts. In the north east it is dominated by a large industrial estate which abuts the railway line (where the eponymous Hilsea station is located) and this has some 1980s and '90s housing in the vicinity, some of which are social housing. In the centre of the area Gatcombe Park which includes an old manor house, Gatcombe House (now a conference/business centre). Surrounding the house is 1980s privately owned housing. To the west and south of this is the oldest area of Hilsea. This consists of good sized, owner occupied homes, mainly semi-detached. This is where the ward boundary deviates from the railway line and to the east of this area is Copnor, lying in that eponymous ward. To the north and west of this central area are the areas of mainly social housing, on and off Northern Parade. This is a mixture of council housing and housing association, and also includes an estate abutting of naval ratings married quarters, with an attached naval community centre. Hilsea also includes the Hilsea Lines, old city fortifications along Port Creek, the main city sports centre and Alexandra Park. North End is an area that is split between three wards, and this is one of them. Hilsea ward takes a north-western chunk of it and this area lies to the south of Hilsea proper. As with all of North End, this is mainly owner occupied suburbia with little in the way of rented accommodation. It is surrounded on three sides by other parts of North End (and, due to the extreme population density of Portsea Island) the boundaries completely arbitrary which is a pattern repeated elsewhere on the island.
Before 2002, Hilsea and its predecessor wards (Hilsea similar to what now exists only coming into being in 1983) were reliably Conservative until the early '90s when it became a battleground seat between them and Labour with Labour taking all three seats in 1996 and the Conservatives winning one back in 2000. When the ward had relatively minor boundary changes in 2002, Labour topped the poll, but the other two seats were Conservative. Since then the Conservatives won every election, the last Labour councillor was picked off in 2006, until last year. Their elections were comfortable or very comfortable apart from in 2003 and 2012 and Labour had always finished second (including joint second in 2014 when themselves and UKIP finished with the identical number of votes). This all changed last year when the Portsmouth Independent Party, standing for the first time, won the seat by 22 votes against the sitting Lord Mayor, the shock result of the night, with Labour some distance back in third. In 2023, PIP turned a win of 22 to a win of over 1,100, the largest majority in the ward outside a combined general election poll since 2008.
Winners: 2002 - Lab x1 Con x2, 2003 - Con, 2004 - Con, 2006 - Con, 2007 - Con, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Con, 2011 - Con, 2012 - Con, 2014 - Con, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Con, 2018 - Con, 2019 - Con, 2021 - Con, 2022 - PIP, 2023 - PIP
Up this year: Con (served 2021-, standing down)
2023
Emily Strudwick PompyInd 1867 57.3% Scott Payter-Harris C 734 22.5% Mariam Daniel Lab 413 12.7% Peter Williams LD 146 4.5% Emma Murphy Grn 99 3.0%
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 19:23:14 GMT
Copnor
This is the ward that inhabits the far north-eastern part of Portsea Island and as such is coastal with its northern boundary being the eastern part of Port Creek and to the west is the far north-western part of Langstone Harbour.
The communities in the ward are: Copnor itself, a largely residential area with three distinct parts. In the east, over the railway line, it is entirely non-residential with the Portsmouth's largest industrial estate, including the city's incinerator, on the site of the old airport (which closed in 1973) which is recalled by the main thoroughfare through the estate being Airport Service Road. To the east of that is the city's municipal golf course and on the coastline a holiday caravan park, to the south is a retail park. The northern part of Copnor, as with all of the residential areas of the ward, is entirely suburban and very similar to the neighbouring area of Hilsea to its north and west in being largely owner occupied and larger sized housing. The southern part of Copnor is somewhat different. This area has much more in the way of tightly packed terraced streets with a lot of privately rented properties and homes converted to flats with more of a feel of the adjacent ward of Fratton to the south and those bits of Copnor that sit in Baffins ward to the east. To the west of Copnor itself sits the ward's portion of North End which, as mentioned in the Hilsea entry, is pretty homogenous with the other two parts in the other wards. This is the south-eastern bit of north end and is bounded by other parts of North End on to the north and west and Buckland to the south (which is in Fratton ward). The third, and distinct, area of the ward is Anchorage Park. This is in the far north-east of the ward and sits on Port Creek. It is an 1980s estate with an adjacent industrial park and is one of the few areas of the city with detached housing. It has a very high rate of owner occupation but with some privately rented property too. Across the main road to the east on the harbour edge is one of Langstone Harbour's two aggregate wharfs (the other being in Havant Borough).
Before 2002 Copnor (and its predecessor ward, Meredith, which was largely similar but with a chunk of what became Hilsea in 1983 and less of North End included) was reliably Conservative, but not always entirely safely, up until 1990 when Labour first won the ward. They then dominated in the 1990s with the Conservatives only winning the ward sporadically. In 2002 the ward changed majorly with its south-eastern part being removed entirely to form part of the new Baffins ward and it further encroaching south-westwards to take in more of North End. This resulted in the Conservatives winning all of the seats in 2002 in the current Copnor, though as with the pre-1990 old Copnor, and continued to win in the ward but with their majorities being sporadic in their strength for the next few years (often due to split opposition). In 2008, on the back of a plan by the Conservative majority Fire Authority, the fire station in the ward was under threat of closure and a by-election came up due to the death of one of the councillors. The Lib Dems put up a recently retired firefighter as their candidate in the ward on a platform of saving the fire station and won a massive victory of over 900 votes on an enormous swing. However, this was a flash in the pan as the fire station was closed anyway (ironically due to the vote of a Portsmouth councillor) and a mere three months later normal service was resumed with the Conservatives winning the seat (that by-election remains the last stand-alone by-election in Portsmouth to date). The Conservative hegemony then continued (with the Lib Dem by-election victor not defending his seat in 2011) until 2014 when UKIP won the seat as part of their surge that year, however this again was only a flash in the pan as the Conservatives have won every time since and indeed the UKIP winner defected to the Conservatives a couple of years into her term (but was unsuccessful in gaining the Conservative nomination in the ward). Though the Conservatives have won every election since 2015, in 2016 Labour ran them close and then last year the Portsmouth Independent Party ran them within 140 votes of winning. PIP got over the line in 2023 with a convincing majority of 666(!?) and the Conservatives reduced to their lowest ever vote share in the ward.
Winners: 2002 - Con x3, 2003 - Con, 2004 - Con, 2006 - Con, 2007 - Con, 2008 (by-election) - Lib Dem, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Con, 2011 - Con, 2012 - Con, 2014 - UKIP, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Con, 2018 - Con, 2019 - Con, 2021 - Con, 2022 - Con, 2023 - PIP
Up this year: Con (Served 2021-)
2023
Raymond Dent PompyInd 1391 46.0% Spencer Gardner C 725 24.0% Arif Choudhury Lab 597 19.7% Nicky Dodd LD 202 6.7% Ben Warner Grn 112 3.7%
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 19:35:55 GMT
Nelson
This ward is in the north-west of Portsea Island, named after Horatio Nelson, with shoreline on Tipner Lake to its north and Portsmouth Harbour to its west. It also includes Whale Island within Portsmouth Harbour itself which is connected to the rest of the ward by a road bridge.
The communities in the ward are: Tipner, in the far north-west of the ward, is a working class residential suburb with some council housing (much of which has been sold on right to buy) and otherwise tightly packed terraced streets. Being somewhat at the periphery of this part of the city (being bounded by the sea, parks and the A275 motorway) it has a slightly isolated feel with little amenity other than on its boundaries with Hilsea to the north and Stamshaw to its south and east. This was previously an area of significant industrial activity (both naval and merchant marine related), almost all of which has now disappeared, and the site of that activity (and of the former greyhound stadium) is currently either being developed for housing or has proposed development for housing and commercial activity. Stamshaw, also lying to the south of Hilsea, is another mainly working class residential area, but one that is almost entirely made up of terraced streets which are a combination of owner occupied (especially in the eastern parts of the area) and privately rented. For connoisseurs of Britain's Hardest Pubs, this is the location of The Mother Shipton which featured on the eponymous programme some years ago. To the east of Stamshaw is Nelson's share of North End which is very similar in character to the rest of the area that lies in Hilsea and Copnor wards with the exception that it also includes North End main shopping street (on London Road) which is the main commercial centre in northern Portsea Island. To its north is the Hilsea, and to its east is the Copnor part, respectively, of North End. South of this part of North End is Buckland. Most of the western part of it is in Nelson ward and is entirely council estate (though with a significant amount of right to buy in the houses in the area). The area is dominated by two long four storey high blocks of flats that overlook the M275 and is an area of significant deprivation. A chunk of the southern part of the estate part of Buckland is in Charles Dickens ward and to its east is the non-council estate part of Buckland that lies in Fratton ward. On the other side of the M275 from Buckland there are two small streets that are all that remain of the Mile End area of the city which was almost entirely flattened by both the Luftwaffe and the engineers who built the motorway (my wife's grandmother was born about where the central reservation now sits somewhere along its stretch). The streets sit directly to the north of Portsmouth International Port and at the end of the bridge that connects Whale Island to the mainland to the west. Whale Island is MoD land being where HMS Excellent shore establishment is situated which includes such institutions as Navy Command. Both the Port and Whale Island sit in Nelson ward with the main HMNB Portsmouth (HMS Nelson), situated directly south of the Port, being in Charles Dickens ward.
Before 2002 the area now covered by Nelson ward had two distinctive stages. In 1973 the predecessor wards to the area covered by the current ward (Buckland and Nelson, the former also covering parts of what are now Fratton and Charles Dickens wards) were split between Labour and Conservative but in subsequent elections, Conservatives won all the seats in both wards, and then in the more direct predecessor Nelson ward which covered similar territory to the current ward when Buckland was abolished in 1983. This changed in 1990, after which Labour won all the subsequent seats and elections in the ward up until the boundary change in 2002. This change resulted in minor adjustments to the boundaries with the ward losing some territory to Charles Dickens to the south and a small amount of adjustments in the North End area. To begin with this resulted with no change in the results either with Labour winning each election, though increasingly narrowly, up to a 2007 by-election. Though Labour won the by-election it was clearly now a three way marginal, with the Lib Dems having moved into second in the normal election in 2007, and though the Conservatives moved back into their traditional (since 1990) second place in the by-election, the three parties were separated by only 11%. The consequences of the by-election didn't finish there though with the aftermath, mainly based on the candidate selection for the poll and other internal disputes, being that the two sitting Nelson councillors (including the former council leader) left Labour and became independents. This was followed in 2008 by the Conservatives winning in the current ward for the first time, with the Lib Dems second and Labour's by-election victor coming in third place in a very tight three way race. The two ex-Labour independents then joined the Lib Dems in 2009 and subsequently defended their seats in their new colours ahead of Labour in second with the Conservatives retaining a significant vote in what remained a three way marginal. Labour then gained the Conservative seat in 2012 just ahead of the Lib Dems (34 votes) and this has proved to be their last win in the ward to date. In 2014 this ward was part of the UKIP surge with them taking the seat from one of the ex-Labour Lib Dems by 44 votes. The following year, on general election day, the Conservatives retook a seat, unseating the other ex-Labour Lib Dem, who finished fourth, albeit only 139 votes behind the victor (the margin for the winner over second place UKIP was just 13 votes). With the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader the Labour councillor elected in 2012 left the party and sat as an independent, quitting his seat not long before he would have been up for re-election in 2016, an election won comfortably by the Lib Dem unseated the previous year. The other unseated Lib Dem won his seat back, again comfortably, in 2018 (with the defending UKIP candidate, one of only two who had remained with the party, finishing a very poor fourth) and were joined by a party colleague in 2019. Both Lib Dem seats were comfortably defended in 2021 & 2022 with 2021 being the only year that Labour have not finished in second place since 2016. 2023 saw a very similar result to 2022 between the top two with the Conservatives falling back somewhat to a clear third.
Winners: 2002 - Lab x3, 2003 - Lab, 2004 - Lab, 2006 - Lab, 2007 - Lab, 2007 (by-election) - Lab, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Lib Dem, 2011 - Lib Dem, 2012 - Lab, 2014 - UKIP, 2015 - Con, 2016 - Lib Dem, 2018 - Lib Dem, 2019 - Lib Dem, 2021 - Lib Dem, 2022 - Lib Dem, 2023 - Lib Dem
Up this year: Lib Dem (Former (Lab) Leader of the City Council 1994-2000) (Served 1991-2015, 2016-, standing down)
2023
Lee Hunt LD 1033 47.8% Robin Head Lab 498 23.0% Kerryanne Swann C 323 14.9% Henry Thorpe PompyInd 169 7.8% Duncan Robinson Grn 121 5.6% Nick Doyle TUSC 19 0.9%
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 20, 2024 19:42:53 GMT
Baffins
We are now on the central east area of Portsea Island with the ward having coastline on Langstone Harbour.
The communities of the ward are: Baffins itself, which is a relatively well off residential area, mostly owner occupied and a combination of 'traditional' terraced streets and the kind of housing you rarely find elsewhere but is ubiquitous in central and southern Portsea Island, terraced housing that would be semi-detached anywhere else. The name of the area derives from Baffins Pond, a small rustic lake which is rather biodiverse, and is situated at the middle of the ward. It has an older demographic than much of the rest of Portsea Island, and away from the central Tangier Road, does not have much in the way of amenity (especially in the eastern part of the area). In the western part of this area is the former Kingston Prison (this is an area traditionally called Kingston, but that name has fallen out of use) and opposite that, the former workhouse. The latter is already housing and the prison is currently being converted to such. In the southern area of Baffins is a late 00s housing estate abutting a secondary school and one of the city's main cemeteries. In the east, heading towards the harbour is the municipal golf course on the site of Great Salterns, the old salt works. The very north of Baffins includes a football ground of Moneyfields FC and a large allotment and is bounded by the industrial area of Copnor to the north and the railway line to the west. The railway line is the boundary of Baffins to its west all the way down and to the south it is bounded by St Mary's Hospital and Milton. The ward's bit of Copnor is actually the site of the original settlement of that name and consists of tightly packed terraced streets over the railway line from the rest of the ward, to the west of northern Baffins. It is connected to the rest of the ward by Copnor Bridge. This is different in character from neighbouring Baffins and has large amounts of private renting. It is bounded to the north and west by the parts of Copnor lying in Copnor and Fratton wards. In the south of the ward is part of Milton. Most of it, commonly known as Moorings Way after the road via which the area is accessed, is 1980s semi-detached housing (with some newer developments as well) and is overwhelmingly owner occupied, relatively well off and with a significantly older demographic. It is bounded to the south by the University of Portsmouth playing fields and the former St James' psychiatric hospital and to the west by part of Milton in Milton ward. To its direct north and north-west is Milton Common which also separates it from Langstone Harbour. To the west of the common is a small inter-war council estate of terraced cottages (most of which has been right to buyed) and to that estate's north is a small post 2000 housing association estate. To the west of both estates are low rise '60s council blocks on either side of Eastern Road, which runs down the west of Portsea Island to this point and is one of the three roads that runs off the island.
Prior to 2002 this ward did not exist as it was the newly created ward when the city had an extra one granted in that year's boundary review. Previously the northern 2/5ths were in Copnor ward and the rest in Milton ward (see the relevant entries for those wards for their electoral history). Despite the ward being based on a Conservative proposal and being regarded as ideally suited for them to win, the ward was won by the Lib Dems, taking all seats, in 2002 and has only been won by the Conservatives a single time since. Until 2007 the Lib Dems relatively comfortably retained their seats in the ward (with the Conservatives always second), but in 2008 the Conservatives gained a seat by 31 votes. This turned out to be a flash in the pan for them, however as in 2010 and 2011 the Lib Dem seats were comfortably retained with the Conservative seat, not being defended by the sitting councillor who did a chicken-run to Cosham (and lost), being very easily gained in 2012. In 2014, as part of their surge that year, UKIP came from nowhere to win the seat, beating the Lib Dems into second. As with most of his colleagues he left UKIP before the end of his term, joining the Conservatives (and was last seen on the Isle of Wight where he was briefly their group leader and recently resigned from the council). The Lib Dems retained their seats at the next two elections (on general election day narrowly, in 2016 very comfortably), narrowly gained the UKIP seat in 2018 and comfortably held in 2019 and 2021 (with the Conservatives second each time as they had been since the UKIP win). By 2022 the Lib Dem incumbent had gone independent (in 2019) and defended her seat as such, finishing last as the Lib Dems regained the seat, comfortably over PIP who surged to take second from the Conservatives by 3 votes. The 2023 result was again very similar to 2022 with it only really being notable in that the Conservatives recorded their lowest ever votes share in the ward and remained in third.
Winners: 2002 - Lib Dem x3, 2003 - Lib Dem, 2004 - Lib Dem, 2006 - Lib Dem, 2007 - Lib Dem, 2008 - Con, 2010 - Lib Dem, 2011 - Lib Dem, 2012 - Lib Dem, 2014 - UKIP, 2015 - Lib Dem, 2016 - Lib Dem, 2018 - Lib Dem, 2019 - Lib Dem, 2021 - Lib Dem, 2022 - Lib Dem, 2023 - Lib Dem
Up this year: Lib Dem (Cabinet Member for Housing and Tackling Homelessness) (Served 2012-)
2023
Leonie Oliver LD 1475 42.3% Paul Oakley-Cleife PompyInd 740 21.2% Joe Standen C 632 18.1% Mark Farwell Lab 488 14.0% Bob Simmonds Grn 152 4.4%
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Feb 24, 2024 19:34:36 GMT
The budget passed (increase of 4.99%) with Labour/Independents support.
The Tories voted against.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Mar 6, 2024 16:54:09 GMT
First literature of the year is from Raymond Dent (PiP councillor elected last year) and he writes to bring me up to speed on his achievements.
Nothing else. Nothing from the Tories which is strange considering they are defending the seat in Copnor...
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Mar 17, 2024 22:55:19 GMT
Addendum to the above...
There is a distinct lack of any literature from any party in Copnor ward introducing thier new candidates, or even prodding the neighbourhood into remembering that there is an election in the offing. In some cases that could be because Copnor isn't a target seat, however the lack of any literature (I am not on faceache or Instagram etc etc so cant speak to the online campaign) from the sitting Conservative councillor is eyebrow raising to say the least.
I have spotted the PiP van in the area a few times but I have no idea if they have selected a candidate- and they are arguably the favourites for the ward.
Election fatigue kicking in? Portsmouth has been through an awful lot of election cycles recently so trying to rouse the footsoldiers maybe proving difficult.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,552
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 19, 2024 18:33:16 GMT
Charles Dickens
We now move onto the wards in Portsmouth South constituency (none of which I managed to do last year). Charles Dickens is in the central west of Portsea Island with the ward having a coastline on Portsmouth Harbour and is named after the eponymous novelist, born in a house in Old Commercial Road in the north of the ward (which is now a museum).
The communities in the ward are: Portsea, in the south west of the ward, is the community that abuts the southern boundary of HMNB Portsmouth (HMS Nelson) and is one of the most settled communities in the city and well know for its tight sense of community. Once consisting of densely packed streets and slums it was severely damaged during World War II and was largely cleared and rebuilt in the 1960s and is almost entirely council housing, with some residual and new build private housing to the south of Queen Street, the exclusive Admiralty Quarter on the site of the old Brickwood's Brewery and some student accommodation. Contemporary of Dickens, Isambard Kingdom Brunel, was born in Portsea near the nearby Victory Gate dockyard entrance in 1806. That gate is the entrance to the Historic Dockyard, home of HMS Victory, HMS Warrior and the Mary Rose, which is part of the Naval Base, the whole of which lies in this ward. It is bounded to the south by the railway line over which lies Gunwharf Quays and the United Services Sports Grounds which are in St Thomas ward and to the west by Portsmouth Harbour (via the ancient landing ground at The Hard, next to which is the bus/train/ferry (to Gosport and the Isle of Wight) interchange). To the east of Portsea is Landport, a sprawling area of the city with ill defined boundaries which contains the majority of the University of Portsmouth (and a majority of purpose built student accommodation), the City Centre and a large amount of residential (again mostly 1960s council) housing with its two definable boundaries being to the south the railway line that cuts east to west in this part of the city and to the east by Fratton Road. As with Portsea, this is an area of significant deprivation. To the south of Landport is Somers Town and to the north is Buckland (including part of that which is in Nelson Ward, near Charles Dickens birthplace). Fratton lies to the east. Somers Town (sometimes written as Somerstown) is split between wards (Charles Dickens and St Thomas) and was split in two in the 1960s by Winston Churchill Avenue (which is the ward boundary here), a gash which creates an artificial valley and is the only finished part of the ultimately abandoned extensive road remodelling scheme that was planned for the city post war. North Somers Town is, like the rest of the ward, largely post-war council housing and an area of deprivation. It is awkwardly sandwiched between the railway line and the aforementioned Winston Churchill Avenue and so quite isolated from the rest of the ward. It also has a small commercial business centre in its east and next to that some 2000s build social housing on the boundary with Central Southsea, next to Fratton Bridge. The very north of the ward is the majority of Buckland, bounded to the south and south-west by Landport, to the south-east by Fratton, the north-east by the part of Buckland in Fratton and to the north by the part of Buckland in Nelson. This part of Buckland is almost entirely council owned with very few right-to-buy homes. As with the part of Buckland in Nelson ward it has significant deprivation. Before 2002 this ward had mostly been solidly Labour, as had the predecessor wards that made up the vast majority of what became Charles Dickens in 1983, Portsea and St Mary & Guildhall, other than a brief period of Alliance challenge in 1986 & '87, two by-election wins for the Lib Dems in the '90s and a first win for that party in an ordinary election in 2000. The other ward that existed pre-'83 that lent a much smaller part to the new ward (Buckland) was a Labour/Conservative marginal from 1973 with it having split representation in that year (2 Con and 1 Lab), and though having three Conservative members each subsequent election prior to abolition, both elections were highly marginal. Following up on the 2000 result, in the first election on the current boundaries (which were only a small change, taking part of Buckland north of Sultan Road from Nelson) in 2002 resulted in the Lib Dem winner from 2000 (Jacqui Hancock, then Portsmouth South MP Mike Hancock's wife) topping the poll with Labour taking the other two seats. In the following two elections the Lib Dems picked off the other two seats with increasing majorities and were subsequently unchallenged for dominance in the ward until 2014 (other than Labour running them close in 2011). In 2014, it was all change with UKIP winning the ward from the Lib Dems by 27 votes and Labour finally winning the ward again in 2015 in a close three-way fight by 12 votes over the Lib Dems with only 25.5% of the vote. Labour then gained the last Lib Dem seat in 2016 (the winner by 63 votes being future Portsmouth South MP Stephen Morgan). In 2018 Labour won on the ballot paper but the person on it was not a Labour member by polling day having been suspended by Labour for an alleged antisemitic Tweet 5 years earlier two weeks before polling day and who then quit the party less than a week before the election. Labour subsequently held their seats in 2019, 2021 and 2022 increasingly comfortably with the Conservatives replacing the Lib Dems in second the latter two years. Prior to last year's local election the sitting Labour councillor up for election (and Labour Group Leader) was suspended and subsequently expelled from Labour for sharing posts by an organisation proscribed by the party a handful of months before the election. He then won as an Independent by 130 votes beating Labour into second place. He was subsequently joined by the 2021 victor (and his partner) as an independent (and they then styled as a group, Portsmouth Community Independents) later in 2023
Winners: 2002 - Lib Dem x1 Lab x2, 2003 - Lib Dem, 2004 - Lib Dem, 2006 - Lib Dem, 2007 - Lib Dem, 2008 - Lib Dem, 2010 - Lib Dem, 2011 - Lib Dem, 2012 - Lib Dem, 2014 - UKIP, 2015 - Lab, 2016 - Lab, 2018 - Lab, 2019 - Lab, 2021 - Lab, 2022 - Lab, 2023 - Ind
Up this year: PCI, elected as Lab (Served 2021-, standing down)
2023
Cal Corkery Ind 910 37.4% Raj Ghosh Lab 780 32.1% Yahiya Chowdhury LD 337 13.9% Terry Henderson C 301 12.4% Ian McCulloch Grn 104 4.3%
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Mar 24, 2024 12:53:12 GMT
Unaddressed envelope through the door. And inside is a pro forma letter from Lee Tindall who is the Portsmouth Independent candidate for Copnor.
He starts by stating he is "reaching out". At that point I stopped reading.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,245
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Post by cogload on Mar 24, 2024 15:10:54 GMT
Political literature is like London buses; the Conservatives have now woken up and put a leaflet through my door which has little to do with the Portsmouth Council elections and concentrates an awful lot on Penny Mordaunt.
The only (squints) references I can see to Portsmouth are extra dentists (a repeat of last year and the campaign was a joint effort with the LD Council) and snarky comments about potholes.
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Post by PoliticoP on Mar 29, 2024 10:14:52 GMT
Tories will likely be down to 4 after this set of elections. Labour will do well and possibly win a couple of seats. indies will win another 2/3 possibly 4 if they can make a dent into the Lib/Lab dominated South of the city.
Tories again going to be the big losers. Lost some big hitters in the last 2 years in their council group.
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Post by jakegb on Mar 29, 2024 19:42:34 GMT
I have had the usual correspondence from the LDs, but also a leaflet from Lab (which I did not recall seeing so early in the election cycle in previous years). Perhaps not surprising given the marginal LD victories in Milton in recent years - but a sign that locally Lab are in a buoyant mood.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,552
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 8, 2024 12:03:40 GMT
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