|
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:38:33 GMT
Walsall
|
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,751
|
Post by iang on Aug 13, 2023 15:10:36 GMT
Current council - Con 37, Lab 20, Ind 3 (of whom one was elected as an Ind, one left the Labour Party earlier this year, and one has been suspended from the Conservative Party earlier this year)
Elected in 2021 - Con 12, Lab 7, Ind 1
Currently there are only three split wards (on election, not counting the two movements referred to above) - there are 10 wards that have elected a full slate of Conservatives and 7 that have elected a full slate for Labour. The split wards are
Birchills Leamore 2C, 1L - Con defence Blakenhall - 1 Ind, 1 Con, 1 Lab - Ind defence Rushall Shelfield - 1 Lab, 2 Con - Lab defence (this is the defector, Cllr Worrall, so don't know if he has any intention to stand again, especially as he has sat since 1980)
So on that basis, Labour should make two gains, three if recovering R/S from the defector is counted. On the other hand, the Independent in Blakenhall might be difficult to shift - it is Peter Smith, the only survivor of the left wing faction that split from Walsall Labour in the days of Dave Church, and who has twice won in Blakenhall as an Independent. Slightly strangely, if the council website is accurate, he doesn't seem to have formed a group with the more recent defector Cllr Worrall, despite they both being left wing leavers of Labour.
There aren't many other places where a Labour victory looks likely. You have to go back to 2016 for when Labour won any of the 10 wards where the Conservatives now hold a full slate, when they won Bloxwich East and Brownhills for the last time. In 2023, the Tory majority was less than 200 votes only in four of their 13 wards, ie Birchills Leamore, Rushall-Shelfield, plus Short Heath and Willenhall North. Though Labour wasn't far away in either, these are two wards they have never won (except WN once in 2011), as these were the two long standing Lib Dem wards, although the Lib Dems haven't won them since 2016, and the last LD councillors, including Ian Shires who had been on the council even longer than the afore mentioned Richard Worrall, lost in 2021. Nevertheless, there was still a residual LD vote of just under 20% in both wards in 2023, and so it isn't inconceivable that they could challenge in one or both, although each year they don't win makes a future success less likely. Walsall was of course one of the main Brexit areas - only Lincolnshire of local authorities more so - and this still seems to be a factor in local voting patterns. Of course, at the moment prospects don't look good for the Conservatives - but we were probably saying that last year, when not a single ward changed hands either way.
|
|
|
Post by listener on Feb 27, 2024 12:00:41 GMT
Update (27.02.2024)
Richard Worrall (Rushall-Shelfield), who left the Labour Party last year, continues to sit as an Independent.
Three councillors retiring this year are amongst the group of councillors who have left Labour protesting about Gaza and have formed the Independent Group. Retiring this year are Sabina Ditta (Palfrey), Naheed Gultasib (Pleck) and Abdus Nazir (St. Matthew's).
Pete Smith, elected as an Independent in Blakenall, has also joined the Independent Group.
As currently constituted, the 20 councillors retiring this year are Con 12, Independent Group 4, Lab 3, Independent 1
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
|
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 9:42:32 GMT
SOPN: go.walsall.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-04/Combined%20SPN.pdfLabour - 20 Conservative - 20 Reform UK - 15 (missing Pheasey Park Farm, Pleck, Short Heath, Willenhall North, Willenhall South) Lib Dem - 11 (missing Aldridge Central & South, Bentley & Darlaston North, Blakenall, Brownhills, Palfrey, Pelsall, Pleck, Rushall-Shelfield, St Matthews) Green - 10 (missing Bentley & Darlaston North, Bloxwich East, Bloxwich West, Brownhills, Darlaston South, Pelsall, Pheasey Park Farm, Short Heath, Willenhall North, Willenhall South) TUSC - 1 (Pleck) Independent - 8 (2 in Bentley & Darlaston North, 1 in Blakenall, Brownhills, Paddock, Palfrey, Pleck, St Matthews)
|
|
|
Post by ClevelandYorks on Apr 28, 2024 12:12:17 GMT
Anyone have any idea of what might happen here? Looks like somewhere Labour might underperform, not helped by a number of former Labour councillors standing as Independents. A quick scan through social media suggests that the Independents have been very active in St Matthew's ward and Labour are heavily targeting Bloxwich West.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 12:41:29 GMT
I'd take a guess at Labour picking up 2 or 3 seats but Bloxwich West would not really be one of them. Comrade Pete will probably hold in Blakenall. The Indos might do something in St Matthew's or Pleck or they might not and none of us will know the biraderis well enough to guess.
|
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,751
|
Post by iang on Apr 28, 2024 13:34:02 GMT
The breakaway independents are also encouraging support for the Independent candidate in the Mayoral election. There are Independent leaflets in paddock, which seems an unlikely place for them to get traction, so on that basis I would presume they are active elsewhere (the leaflet I saw seemed very much a "Vote Muslim" leaflet, as the candidate is an ex-tory endorsed by the ex-Labour Independent group leader, and backing the Muslim Independent for Mayor)
|
|
|
Post by ClevelandYorks on Apr 28, 2024 14:38:36 GMT
The breakaway independents are also encouraging support for the Independent candidate in the Mayoral election. There are Independent leaflets in paddock, which seems an unlikely place for them to get traction, so on that basis I would presume they are active elsewhere (the leaflet I saw seemed very much a "Vote Muslim" leaflet, as the candidate is an ex-tory endorsed by the ex-Labour Independent group leader, and backing the Muslim Independent for Mayor) From social media it seems like they're targeting St Matthew's, Palfrey and Pleck as you'd expect.
|
|
|
Walsall
May 1, 2024 7:17:28 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on May 1, 2024 7:17:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by notabrummie on May 1, 2024 23:43:33 GMT
I don't know how Muslim name go but. In Pleck one of the Ind' candidates is Naheed Gultasib. The proposer is Gul Tasib.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 12:43:03 GMT
I'd take a guess at Labour picking up 2 or 3 seats but Bloxwich West would not really be one of them. Comrade Pete will probably hold in Blakenall. The Indos might do something in St Matthew's or Pleck or they might not and none of us will know the biraderis well enough to guess. I was wrong, Labour very narrowly win in Bloxwich West and weren't that far off in Bloxwich East. Comrade Pete held Blakenall.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 12:56:30 GMT
Close wins for the Conservatives in Short Heath and Birchills-Leamore
And by just 12 votes in Willenhall North.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 13:53:52 GMT
Just the Muslim wards left here. Fascinated to see how this goes.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 14:09:20 GMT
Gaza candidate wins by just over 100 votes in Pleck and a crushing victory in Palfrey. Only St Matthews (town centre) to come here and we're done.
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 15:27:28 GMT
I make that Conservative 12, Labour 5, Gaza 2, Independent 1.
Conservatives gain 1 and lose 1 to Labour, and Labour lose 2 to Gaza, and that's it despite several close results.
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,441
|
Walsall
May 3, 2024 17:03:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by Jack on May 3, 2024 17:03:12 GMT
I make that Conservative 12, Labour 5, Gaza 2, Independent 1. Conservatives gain 1 and lose 1 to Labour, and Labour lose 2 to Gaza, and that's it despite several close results. Standard, boring Walsall election results really!
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on May 3, 2024 18:04:38 GMT
In the circumstances it is an outstanding result for the Tories. Only a strong Reform showing in Bloxwich West cost the Tories a clean sweep of their winnable wards.
As with last year the Tories have held up very well in the West Midlands.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on May 9, 2024 12:51:41 GMT
It's all fun and games in Walsall, it appears the Tories have split over Mike Bird.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 9, 2024 12:55:05 GMT
Have to have a heart of stone etc.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,745
|
Post by Sibboleth on May 9, 2024 13:47:26 GMT
CHANGE PLACES!
|
|