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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:33:31 GMT
Manchester
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Post by carolus on Nov 14, 2023 21:37:11 GMT
Current council: 87 Lab, 4 Green, 4 LD, 1 Ind Up in 2024: 29 Lab, 2 Green, 1 LD
The Green in Hulme (2024) was elected as Lab. The Ind in Ardwick (2027) was elected as Lab.
Split wards (2023 result given): Ancoats & Beswick - 2 LD, 1 Lab. LD defend. LD gain by 10.8% from Lab. Didsbury West - 2 LD, 1 Lab. Lab defend. LD hold by 4.2% over Lab.
Close wards (2023 result given): Woodhouse Park - Green gain by 5.7% from Lab.
2023 candidate totals (+1): 33 Con, 33 Green, 33 Lab, 33 LD, 2 Reform UK, 1 Northern Heart, 1 OMRLP, 1 SDP, 1 WEP, 5 Ind 2021 candidate totals (+2): 34 Con, 34 Green, 34 Lab, 34 LD, 3 OMRLP, 3 WEP, 2 Reform UK, 1 Communist, 1 SDP, 4 Ind
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 15, 2023 7:08:39 GMT
Second-place party by ward (most of them distant):
Green - 15: Ardwick, Burnage, Charlestown, Chorlton, Chorlton Park, Deansgate, Fallowfield, Hulme, Levenshulme, Moss Side, Northernden, Old Moat, Piccadilly, Rusholme, Whalley Range
Conservative - 11: Baguley, Brooklands, Cheetham, Clayton & Openshaw, Crumpsall, Harpurhey, Higher Blackley, Longsight, Miles Platting & Newton Heath, Moston, Sharston
Labour - 3: Ancoats & Beswick, Didsbury West, Woodhouse Park
Lib Dem - 3: Didsbury East, Gorton & Abbey Hey, Withington
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Post by batman on Nov 15, 2023 8:33:11 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 15, 2023 17:58:24 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards. There can't be many places where their collapse was so substantial (for several years wiped out entirely), and their rebuild has been so difficult?
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,600
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 15, 2023 18:46:58 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards. There can't be many places where their collapse was so substantial (for several years wiped out entirely), and their rebuild has been so difficult? Liverpool? Didn't they go from running the council to being outnumbered by the Liberals?
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Post by carolus on Nov 15, 2023 19:04:26 GMT
There can't be many places where their collapse was so substantial (for several years wiped out entirely), and their rebuild has been so difficult? Liverpool? Didn't they go from running the council to being outnumbered by the Liberals? We've recovered since then, though. In Manchester 2019 looked like it was going to be the recovery year, but we ended up with a whole lot of close seconds. And then in 2021 it all fell apart again.
I don't think it's unique though, there are various places we've vanished entirely or are still just clinging on to a ward or two.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 15, 2023 19:09:03 GMT
Liverpool? Didn't they go from running the council to being outnumbered by the Liberals? We've recovered since then, though. In Manchester 2019 looked like it was going to be the recovery year, but we ended up with a whole lot of close seconds. And then in 2021 it all fell apart again.
I don't think it's unique though, there are various places we've vanished entirely or are still just clinging on to a ward or two.
TBF Manchester never saw Labour close to losing their control, Labour never went below 2/3 or so of seats. The Lib Dems were the only challengers, at all, pre-2010, though. That's what I'm thinking of, large councils where they were the only or dominant opposition, and have since failed to recover.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 16, 2023 8:43:56 GMT
I think what happened post-2010 is that Labour was so strong in Manchester and other parties so weak that they only needed to work in a relatively small number of wards.
At some point - it might be 2024 - the city centre wards, hard to campaign in at the best of times, may go and things could start to change rapidly at that point.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2023 8:50:19 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards. In a lot of areas, the Greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the main anti-Labour party, see Hackney and Islington too. I think a lot of the student demographic supports the Greens now whereas in a previous era people in that age bracket would've voted Lib Dem. That's my explanation of it. The Lib Dems are still pretty strong in the Withington wards, but yes after 2019 they fell back after a bit of a false dawn for them. It is of course over 13 years since that seat elected a Lib Dem MP.
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Post by batman on Nov 16, 2023 8:57:45 GMT
I think what happened post-2010 is that Labour was so strong in Manchester and other parties so weak that they only needed to work in a relatively small number of wards. At some point - it might be 2024 - the city centre wards, hard to campaign in at the best of times, may go and things could start to change rapidly at that point. It is not much of a secret that I have a low opinion of the Piccadilly councillor who successfully defended his seat this year, but with a greatly reduced majority. I have an extremely high opinion of one of the other ward councillors (as does BossMan of course) and she is not standing for re-election. Piccadilly ward could become a less safe Labour ward for sure.
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Post by carolus on Nov 16, 2023 9:06:08 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards. In a lot of areas, the Greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the main anti-Labour party, see Hackney and Islington too. I think a lot of the student demographic supports the Greens now whereas in a previous era people in that age bracket would've voted Lib Dem. That's my explanation of it. The Lib Dems are still pretty strong in the Withington wards, but yes after 2019 they fell back after a bit of a false dawn for them. It is of course over 13 years since that seat elected a Lib Dem MP. I don't think that's really true about Hackney - certainly we only had a handful of councillors even pre-2010, and in 2002 and 2006 we were already behund the Greens on vote share. Islington is a better comparison for Manchester. Brent is another in Lonfon where there was major and not really recovered collapse (though that had started before the coalition).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,631
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2023 11:41:38 GMT
Brent was a lot to do with the 2003 Brent East by-election win, though. Whereas in Hackney there was significant LibDem strength into the 1990s but it fell away later.
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Post by batman on Nov 16, 2023 12:45:24 GMT
Well yes but there had been some isolated wins before that in some wards (e.g. Queen's Park) and longer periods of success in Alperton & Barham
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 16, 2023 17:52:17 GMT
In a lot of areas, the Greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the main anti-Labour party, see Hackney and Islington too. I think a lot of the student demographic supports the Greens now whereas in a previous era people in that age bracket would've voted Lib Dem. That's my explanation of it. The Lib Dems are still pretty strong in the Withington wards, but yes after 2019 they fell back after a bit of a false dawn for them. It is of course over 13 years since that seat elected a Lib Dem MP. I don't think that's really true about Hackney - certainly we only had a handful of councillors even pre-2010, and in 2002 and 2006 we were already behund the Greens on vote share. Islington is a better comparison for Manchester. Brent is another in Lonfon where there was major and not really recovered collapse (though that had started before the coalition). Yes, Islington does indeed fit very well (even having an isolated Green win in 2006, comparable to that in Manchester a couple of years before). The London results hammer home the coalition-era collapse of the LDs, because of the all-out cycle almost bookending that government. Whereas Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield saw the collapse happen "in real time", year-by-year over in-thirds elections.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 16, 2023 17:54:44 GMT
It's remarkable to see the LDs not even in second in so many wards when not that many years ago they were very strong challengers, or incumbents, in a large number of Manchester wards. In a lot of areas, the Greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the main anti-Labour party, see Hackney and Islington too. I think a lot of the student demographic supports the Greens now whereas in a previous era people in that age bracket would've voted Lib Dem. That's my explanation of it. The Lib Dems are still pretty strong in the Withington wards, but yes after 2019 they fell back after a bit of a false dawn for them. It is of course over 13 years since that seat elected a Lib Dem MP. The "student vote" isn't anything like enough to make a big dent in electoral trends, even in Manchester Withington. Even more so in council elections, when almost no students vote. (Look at University ward in Lancaster, where even with the control of the council at stake, there's only a 12% turnout.)
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 16, 2023 17:55:30 GMT
At some point - it might be 2024 - the city centre wards, hard to campaign in at the best of times, may go and things could start to change rapidly at that point. *bookmarks this post* 😉
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,776
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Post by iang on Nov 16, 2023 18:51:11 GMT
I don't think that's really true about Hackney - certainly we only had a handful of councillors even pre-2010, and in 2002 and 2006 we were already behund the Greens on vote share. Islington is a better comparison for Manchester. Brent is another in Lonfon where there was major and not really recovered collapse (though that had started before the coalition). Yes, Islington does indeed fit very well (even having an isolated Green win in 2006, comparable to that in Manchester a couple of years before). The London results hammer home the coalition-era collapse of the LDs, because of the all-out cycle almost bookending that government. Whereas Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield saw the collapse happen "in real time", year-by-year over in-thirds elections. [br Surely one place where that isn't as true is Sheffield? We were never driven out of the Hallam wards and that provided a more secure base from which to recover, compared to either Liverpool or Manchester.
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 17, 2023 17:23:10 GMT
Yes, Islington does indeed fit very well (even having an isolated Green win in 2006, comparable to that in Manchester a couple of years before). The London results hammer home the coalition-era collapse of the LDs, because of the all-out cycle almost bookending that government. Whereas Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield saw the collapse happen "in real time", year-by-year over in-thirds elections. [br Surely one place where that isn't as true is Sheffield? We were never driven out of the Hallam wards and that provided a more secure base from which to recover, compared to either Liverpool or Manchester. Fair point, the situation in Sheffield wasn't nearly as precipitous.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,824
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 8, 2024 15:42:02 GMT
Is this the only one we're still waiting for?
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