Post by John Chanin on Aug 7, 2023 10:57:00 GMT
Solihull is very much part of the city of Birmingham geographically, while forming the centre of its own borough administratively. The built-up area is continuous, and the border historical rather than representing any modern day feature. It is a middle-class area, managerial occupations exceeding routine throughout, although the seat gets wealthier as you move southwards and further away from the Birmingham boundary. And it is a different sort of middle-class from that found in the wealthy inner suburbs of Birmingham, much less public sector, much less intellectual, and much more traditionally Conservative inclined. There is no council housing to speak of anywhere, and there never was. This is an area of owner-occupation throughout, with expansive semi-detached houses on tree-lined streets. There has been surprisingly little spillover of asians from Birmingham - the asian population is mostly of Indian descent (mixed Hindu and Sikh) and in central Solihull - and the whole seat is very white for the Birmingham conurbation.
The Boundary Commission has made a real pig’s ear of Solihull. The existing seat is 1000 oversize. But removing one ward would leave it undersized. This both illustrates the difficulty of the 5% tolerance level in metropolitan districts, and cries out for a ward split. However what the Commission have done is wreck the seat by taking two wards out, and putting a larger ward in, which takes the seat just over the minimum size. In comes Blythe ward which covers the commuter villages south of Solihull. Out goes part of core central Solihull, in the form of Silhill ward, plus Elmdon ward to the north. All the Commission had to do was remove the slightly detached area of Elmdon Heath to bring down to size a seat that has existed unchanged since 1983 and formed a compact and coherent urban seat.
In the north is Lyndon, adjoining the Yardley seat of Birmingham. This is the most down market of the Solihull wards, though still solidly middle-class with its owner-occupied semis. South of Lyndon, adjoining Acocks Green in Birmingham is Olton, a pleasant residential area surrounding a reservoir. This northern part of the seat, like neighbouring Yardley has a long Liberal Democrat history at local level, with the Liberals usually winning both wards on Solihull Council. South-east is central Solihull with its large shopping centre, second only to central Birmingham in the metropolitan area. This is a commercial centre with many offices, including Solihull’s Council House, a hospital, and several private schools in the surroundings. The residential streets surrounding the centre are the wealthiest part of the seat, with large houses, and this area has remained Conservative locally, even when the Liberal Democrats were challenging for control of the council. The northern part of the town centre has however been ripped out of the seat by the Boundary Commission.
To the south-west is the separate suburb of Shirley, based around the Stratford Road where there is a more ordinary suburban shopping centre. The Boundary Commission have chosen to recognise Shirley in the name of the seat, although it has always been part of it. This is a southern extension of Hall Green, entirely residential, not as wealthy as central Solihull, but still very middle-class. Shirley was for a long time a focus of competition at local level between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, its three wards swinging back and forth. However in the aftermath of the coalition most of the Liberal Democrat councillors defected to the Greens, who have continued to win two of the wards. The Greens now provide the main opposition to the Conservatives on the council, with their other area of strength in the north of the borough, and it is not inconceivable that they could provide the leadership here, albeit in coalition with Labour and Liberal Democrat.
Coming in from Meriden seat is a very different area, from outside the built up conurbation. Blythe ward, named after a small river which is a tributary of the Tame, includes the commuter villages of Tidbury Green, Dickens Heath, Cheswick Green, and Ilshaw Heath. These are over 55% managerial and professional, and nearly 50% with degrees, and like all commuter villages are very Conservative. Dickens Heath, the largest, is something of a new town, with extensive modern development alongside the Stratford canal. The countryside which surrounds the villages has surprisingly little arable, much of what there is being fodder crops for cows and sheep. Also included is Monkspath. This is modern Solihull overspill built to the south of the city on the site of an old village, and this more approximates socially to the rest of urban Solihull. There is over 10% asian population and quite a lot of private renting here, but it is just as high status, and just as Conservative as the villages.
As in Yardley the Liberal Democrats managed to translate local strength into a challenge for the parliamentary seat. In 2005 Lorely Burt overturned a 9,000 Conservative majority on a 10% swing to narrowly win the seat, and held on even more narrowly in 2010 when this was one of the most marginal seats in the country. However Burt lost overwhelmingly in 2015 to the present MP Julian Knight, a former journalist, who at the time of writing is under something of a cloud. In Burt’s absence the seat has reverted to safe Conservative status, with the opposition equally divided between Labour and Liberal Democrat (and no sign of the Greens). The quite substantial boundary changes will make very little difference politically.
Census data : Owner-occupied 79% (13/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (515th), social rented 8% (561st).
: White 77%(429th), Black 1%(287th), South Asian 14%(72nd), Mixed 3%(212th), Other 4%(182nd)
: Managerial & professional 49% (77th), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (490th)
: Degree 40% (115th), Minimal qualifications 23% (446th)
: Students 6% (276th), Over 65: 21% (198th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 84% from Solihull and 16% from Meriden
76% of the old Solihull seat is in the new one, with 24% going to Meriden
The Boundary Commission has made a real pig’s ear of Solihull. The existing seat is 1000 oversize. But removing one ward would leave it undersized. This both illustrates the difficulty of the 5% tolerance level in metropolitan districts, and cries out for a ward split. However what the Commission have done is wreck the seat by taking two wards out, and putting a larger ward in, which takes the seat just over the minimum size. In comes Blythe ward which covers the commuter villages south of Solihull. Out goes part of core central Solihull, in the form of Silhill ward, plus Elmdon ward to the north. All the Commission had to do was remove the slightly detached area of Elmdon Heath to bring down to size a seat that has existed unchanged since 1983 and formed a compact and coherent urban seat.
In the north is Lyndon, adjoining the Yardley seat of Birmingham. This is the most down market of the Solihull wards, though still solidly middle-class with its owner-occupied semis. South of Lyndon, adjoining Acocks Green in Birmingham is Olton, a pleasant residential area surrounding a reservoir. This northern part of the seat, like neighbouring Yardley has a long Liberal Democrat history at local level, with the Liberals usually winning both wards on Solihull Council. South-east is central Solihull with its large shopping centre, second only to central Birmingham in the metropolitan area. This is a commercial centre with many offices, including Solihull’s Council House, a hospital, and several private schools in the surroundings. The residential streets surrounding the centre are the wealthiest part of the seat, with large houses, and this area has remained Conservative locally, even when the Liberal Democrats were challenging for control of the council. The northern part of the town centre has however been ripped out of the seat by the Boundary Commission.
To the south-west is the separate suburb of Shirley, based around the Stratford Road where there is a more ordinary suburban shopping centre. The Boundary Commission have chosen to recognise Shirley in the name of the seat, although it has always been part of it. This is a southern extension of Hall Green, entirely residential, not as wealthy as central Solihull, but still very middle-class. Shirley was for a long time a focus of competition at local level between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, its three wards swinging back and forth. However in the aftermath of the coalition most of the Liberal Democrat councillors defected to the Greens, who have continued to win two of the wards. The Greens now provide the main opposition to the Conservatives on the council, with their other area of strength in the north of the borough, and it is not inconceivable that they could provide the leadership here, albeit in coalition with Labour and Liberal Democrat.
Coming in from Meriden seat is a very different area, from outside the built up conurbation. Blythe ward, named after a small river which is a tributary of the Tame, includes the commuter villages of Tidbury Green, Dickens Heath, Cheswick Green, and Ilshaw Heath. These are over 55% managerial and professional, and nearly 50% with degrees, and like all commuter villages are very Conservative. Dickens Heath, the largest, is something of a new town, with extensive modern development alongside the Stratford canal. The countryside which surrounds the villages has surprisingly little arable, much of what there is being fodder crops for cows and sheep. Also included is Monkspath. This is modern Solihull overspill built to the south of the city on the site of an old village, and this more approximates socially to the rest of urban Solihull. There is over 10% asian population and quite a lot of private renting here, but it is just as high status, and just as Conservative as the villages.
As in Yardley the Liberal Democrats managed to translate local strength into a challenge for the parliamentary seat. In 2005 Lorely Burt overturned a 9,000 Conservative majority on a 10% swing to narrowly win the seat, and held on even more narrowly in 2010 when this was one of the most marginal seats in the country. However Burt lost overwhelmingly in 2015 to the present MP Julian Knight, a former journalist, who at the time of writing is under something of a cloud. In Burt’s absence the seat has reverted to safe Conservative status, with the opposition equally divided between Labour and Liberal Democrat (and no sign of the Greens). The quite substantial boundary changes will make very little difference politically.
Census data : Owner-occupied 79% (13/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (515th), social rented 8% (561st).
: White 77%(429th), Black 1%(287th), South Asian 14%(72nd), Mixed 3%(212th), Other 4%(182nd)
: Managerial & professional 49% (77th), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (490th)
: Degree 40% (115th), Minimal qualifications 23% (446th)
: Students 6% (276th), Over 65: 21% (198th)
Boundaries: The new seat is made up of 84% from Solihull and 16% from Meriden
76% of the old Solihull seat is in the new one, with 24% going to Meriden
2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | |
Conservative | 32,985 | 58.1 | 32,309 | 58.4 | 30,558 | 60.9 |
Labour | 12,414 | 21.9 | 11,036 | 19.9 | 9,760 | 19.5 |
Liberal Democrat | 8,901 | 15.7 | 9,977 | 18.0 | 7,861 | 15.7 |
UKIP | 1,291 | 2.3 | ||||
Green | 1,157 | 2.0 | 2,022 | 3.7 | 2,000 | 4.0 |
| Majority | 20,571 | 36.2 | 21,273 | 38.4 | 20,798 | 41.5 |
