Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 17:27:33 GMT
Edited to take into account the 2024 election result.
MITCHAM AND MORDEN
This seat changed only very slightly in its boundaries from its creation in 1974, before which there were seats called Mitcham, and Merton & Morden, until the addition to the seat of a further ward, Cannon Hill, in 2024. However, its politics have changed enormously, mainly since the 1992 election. This is one of many London seats which once were consistently marginal but now have unmistakable safe Labour characteristics. Historically it was in the county of Surrey before 1965, although some of its northern areas have London SW postcodes.
Little of this seat has been seen as particularly high-class housing in the sense that some parts of the Wimbledon constituency are, but large swathes of it were solidly middle-class commuters. These areas have always been at least balanced by council estates, one of them, the St Helier low-rise estate, being one of the largest council housing estates anywhere in the country. The best residential area of the constituency remains Lower Morden, solidly privately-built interwar suburbia. That ward remained usually Conservative for many years, and only in recent years has Labour won it outright: it went into a solid-looking lead in no time at all, but the Tories managed a partial recapture in 2022, in what was otherwise a poor municipal election for them. While some wards such as St Helier and Lavender Fields are heavily dominated by council housing, and have been solidly Labour for almost all of the last half century or more in various guises, some are very evenly divided between council estates and interwar private housing, often semis. The latter class of wards has had broadly marginal characteristics in local government in the past, but all these wards now vote very heavily for Labour. While some other wards such as Colliers Wood and Graveney, both close to the more inner-city Tooting, have also had long safe Labour histories, the swing from the Conservatives to Labour in others, especially the once-marginal Pollards Hill, has been enormous in a fairly short time. The same applies to Longthornton, though that was long held by Independents rather than actual Tories on Merton council. In some cases, this cannot be uninfluenced by ethnicity. Pollards Hill now apparently has the second-largest Ghanaian community in the whole of Britain, and having been a Tory-inclined marginal for many years is now one of the very safest Labour wards anywhere in London, which is saying a great deal. Other large non-white communities exist almost throughout the constituency (perhaps rather less so in Lower Morden), and these voters have retained a strong allegiance to Labour. The remaining still large white British population tends to be more likely than average to work in the public sector, in institutions such as hospitals, rather than to commute to London to work in the private sector, and Lower Morden's large public sector workforce may be a reason why despite its continuing pleasance as a residential area, and its largely white population, it too now votes more for Labour than was once the case. The constituency has up to now been completed by 3 other wards, Ravensbury with its mixture of private and council houses, Cricket Green which takes in much of central Mitcham, and Figges Marsh, still with its fair share of owner-occupied dwellings but another ward where once the Tories were competitive, but no more. All these wards too are safe Labour, and have long been largely so.
In the boundary changes, Cannon Hill ward has been added. This ward is in many ways a good fit with the constituency as much of it is part of the Morden community; however, not all of the Morden community, despite the constituency name, will be united in one constituency after this change, as parts of Morden including some of its town centre remain outside it, being in the Merton Park ward which was originally proposed as an addition to this constituency, but was replaced in the end by Cannon Hill. This ward was regarded as a rather freakish Labour gain in the 1994 local elections, but clearly was not as it was held in 1998. The Tories have had a period of tenure afterwards, but it has seen possibly the only example in the outgoing Wimbledon constituency of pro-Labour demographic change and was won in the 2014 local elections. It is a mixture of quite good quality owner-occupied housing, mostly interwar semis, and some low-rise again mostly interwar council estates. The owner-occupied section is a little like Lower Morden ward and tends to have a similar demographic. The ward nevertheless saw a somewhat surprising Conservative comeback in 2018 as they regained one of the seats from Labour on a fair-sized swing, then things started to get more complicated as the Liberal Democrats gained another of the Labour seats in a by-election at their temporary peak following the final Euro-elections. This therefore gives the Lib Dems a council presence in this new constituency which they never have before; in 2022 the ward became something of a 3-way marginal with both Lib Dem and Tory councillors, but with Labour now a little way behind the other two parties. In many ways Cannon Hill looks the part of a natural marginal albeit with a fairly clear owner-occupied majority, although much less so than Lower Morden whose council estate element is very small.
The accession of Cannon Hill ward has given the Conservatives a bit more of a presence in the constituency but was a drop in the ocean in terms of overhauling the Labour majority. Siobhain McDonagh having gained this seat overwhelmingly from the Conservatives in 1997 was re-elected by a crushing majority over the Tories in 2024, and her party is totally safe. The Labour share of the vote dropped slightly, but the Tory share dropped considerably more; and in common with so much of inner & halfway-out London there was a sharp rise in vote share for the Green Party, though the vote share of ReformUK surged only slightly less. These two parties gained respectively 3rd & 4th place with the Lib Dems in 5th, but the latter will console themselves with their gains in 3 other neighbouring constituencies. This however has left this as still a very safe Labour seat indeed.
MITCHAM AND MORDEN
This seat changed only very slightly in its boundaries from its creation in 1974, before which there were seats called Mitcham, and Merton & Morden, until the addition to the seat of a further ward, Cannon Hill, in 2024. However, its politics have changed enormously, mainly since the 1992 election. This is one of many London seats which once were consistently marginal but now have unmistakable safe Labour characteristics. Historically it was in the county of Surrey before 1965, although some of its northern areas have London SW postcodes.
Little of this seat has been seen as particularly high-class housing in the sense that some parts of the Wimbledon constituency are, but large swathes of it were solidly middle-class commuters. These areas have always been at least balanced by council estates, one of them, the St Helier low-rise estate, being one of the largest council housing estates anywhere in the country. The best residential area of the constituency remains Lower Morden, solidly privately-built interwar suburbia. That ward remained usually Conservative for many years, and only in recent years has Labour won it outright: it went into a solid-looking lead in no time at all, but the Tories managed a partial recapture in 2022, in what was otherwise a poor municipal election for them. While some wards such as St Helier and Lavender Fields are heavily dominated by council housing, and have been solidly Labour for almost all of the last half century or more in various guises, some are very evenly divided between council estates and interwar private housing, often semis. The latter class of wards has had broadly marginal characteristics in local government in the past, but all these wards now vote very heavily for Labour. While some other wards such as Colliers Wood and Graveney, both close to the more inner-city Tooting, have also had long safe Labour histories, the swing from the Conservatives to Labour in others, especially the once-marginal Pollards Hill, has been enormous in a fairly short time. The same applies to Longthornton, though that was long held by Independents rather than actual Tories on Merton council. In some cases, this cannot be uninfluenced by ethnicity. Pollards Hill now apparently has the second-largest Ghanaian community in the whole of Britain, and having been a Tory-inclined marginal for many years is now one of the very safest Labour wards anywhere in London, which is saying a great deal. Other large non-white communities exist almost throughout the constituency (perhaps rather less so in Lower Morden), and these voters have retained a strong allegiance to Labour. The remaining still large white British population tends to be more likely than average to work in the public sector, in institutions such as hospitals, rather than to commute to London to work in the private sector, and Lower Morden's large public sector workforce may be a reason why despite its continuing pleasance as a residential area, and its largely white population, it too now votes more for Labour than was once the case. The constituency has up to now been completed by 3 other wards, Ravensbury with its mixture of private and council houses, Cricket Green which takes in much of central Mitcham, and Figges Marsh, still with its fair share of owner-occupied dwellings but another ward where once the Tories were competitive, but no more. All these wards too are safe Labour, and have long been largely so.
In the boundary changes, Cannon Hill ward has been added. This ward is in many ways a good fit with the constituency as much of it is part of the Morden community; however, not all of the Morden community, despite the constituency name, will be united in one constituency after this change, as parts of Morden including some of its town centre remain outside it, being in the Merton Park ward which was originally proposed as an addition to this constituency, but was replaced in the end by Cannon Hill. This ward was regarded as a rather freakish Labour gain in the 1994 local elections, but clearly was not as it was held in 1998. The Tories have had a period of tenure afterwards, but it has seen possibly the only example in the outgoing Wimbledon constituency of pro-Labour demographic change and was won in the 2014 local elections. It is a mixture of quite good quality owner-occupied housing, mostly interwar semis, and some low-rise again mostly interwar council estates. The owner-occupied section is a little like Lower Morden ward and tends to have a similar demographic. The ward nevertheless saw a somewhat surprising Conservative comeback in 2018 as they regained one of the seats from Labour on a fair-sized swing, then things started to get more complicated as the Liberal Democrats gained another of the Labour seats in a by-election at their temporary peak following the final Euro-elections. This therefore gives the Lib Dems a council presence in this new constituency which they never have before; in 2022 the ward became something of a 3-way marginal with both Lib Dem and Tory councillors, but with Labour now a little way behind the other two parties. In many ways Cannon Hill looks the part of a natural marginal albeit with a fairly clear owner-occupied majority, although much less so than Lower Morden whose council estate element is very small.
The accession of Cannon Hill ward has given the Conservatives a bit more of a presence in the constituency but was a drop in the ocean in terms of overhauling the Labour majority. Siobhain McDonagh having gained this seat overwhelmingly from the Conservatives in 1997 was re-elected by a crushing majority over the Tories in 2024, and her party is totally safe. The Labour share of the vote dropped slightly, but the Tory share dropped considerably more; and in common with so much of inner & halfway-out London there was a sharp rise in vote share for the Green Party, though the vote share of ReformUK surged only slightly less. These two parties gained respectively 3rd & 4th place with the Lib Dems in 5th, but the latter will console themselves with their gains in 3 other neighbouring constituencies. This however has left this as still a very safe Labour seat indeed.
