Post by batman on Jul 13, 2023 8:37:06 GMT
Edited to take into account the 2024 election result.
BATTERSEA
This seat dates back to 1983, after when, until the 2024 boundary changes, it was almost unaltered like all Wandsworth constituencies; before then, there were North and South Battersea seats. Battersea North was a perennial Labour stronghold, with sweeping working-class and artisan terraces interspersed with council estates, some of them sizeable. When Battersea was created, it seemed natural that the Labour North would outvote the more mixed South, and so it proved. But already by then the area was changing, and in 1987 the Tories won the seat. Since then, it has had largely marginal characteristics (although there have been times when the Tories appeared to be about to put it out of Labour's reach, especially the 2015 election), at least until the 2024 general election, that is. The boundary changes have excised a section of central Wandsworth town from the constituency, but this has had very little if any partisan effect.
Battersea became a very desirable location for upwardly mobile, often City, professionals after the early 1980s, with its solidly-built Victorian terraces close to London and close to attractive green spaces such as Battersea Park and Clapham Common. It was, like Fulham, a natural place for prosperous people who were not quite wealthy enough, or who had other reasons not, to buy property in neighbouring Chelsea, for example. They helped to reinforce the narrow Conservative majority on Wandsworth council, which in its turn helped with a project of attempted social engineering which frowned upon social housing but smiled upon executive homes, though this social engineering was always rather less direct that that seen in Westminster at the same time. These professionals have largely stayed, but there remain large council estates, particularly in Falconbrook ward north of Clapham Junction station, but also in other wards, especially Battersea Park. While parts of the constituency have been transformed from shabby White and Black working-class areas of owner-occupied and privately-rented terraced houses to expensive, restaurant-filled localities, others have resisted major social change. Some of the voters here are not unlike those found in Putney to the west, but the pockets of ultra-affluence are perhaps a little less extensive, and the constituency is quite a bit less White-dominated than Putney too, retaining much of its old Caribbean community. As well as Battersea itself (this takes in Clapham Junction), the constituency includes parts of the Balham, Wandsworth and Clapham communities, and the recently heavily developed Nine Elms area (or that part of it that lies in the borough of Wandsworth); the Wandsworth town element has been reduced in the boundary changes. Again, as with almost all of the most affluent parts of London, the owner-occupied voters tend to be relatively social liberal even if they have voted Conservative at times (both of the 2 Conservative MPs who have won here are identified broadly with the left of that party), and were very pro-Remain in the 2016 referendum. This has tended to alienate even many very prosperous City workers from the Conservatives in national elections since then, and the seat, despite seeing a comfortable-looking Tory win in the 2015 election, swung heavily to Labour's Marsha De Cordova as she took it with votes to spare in 2017. The salience of Europe as an issue in the 2019 election, and De Cordova's broadly pro-Remain stance, prevented the Tories from coming all that close from retaking the seat in 2019. It is another seat where Europe has loomed large as an election issue, and the Conservatives will have to reconnect with their erstwhile pro-Remain voters if they are to retake it in the future; and they fell a good deal further back in the 2024 general election, with De Cordova's Labour share rising by more than the national average, despite the rise in the Green share of the vote, and the Tories in contrast dropping by a further 12%. The Conservatives were very dominant in local elections within the constituency for roughly a generation, with (before the 2022 ward boundary changes) only Latchmere having usually safe Labour characteristics. In the most recent local elections, many Conservative councillors were swept away by the tide to Labour, and the only completely safe Tory ward in this constituency is now Northcote, a network of heavily gentrified 19th century homes, mostly terraced, between the Commons; this is now by some distance the safest Tory ward in the entire borough, not just in the Battersea constituency, although way back in 1971 before gentrification Labour managed to win here (they did not in some wards which now have Labour councillors, for example Putney and Nightingale elsewhere in the borough). There is a completely new ward, Nine Elms, created because of extensive, mostly high-end and high-rise, residential development hard by the border with the borough of Lambeth close to Vauxhall station. This ward is said to have a large number of non-UK nationals who cannot vote in British elections, and it took well under 400 votes for the Conservatives to win both seats, in what was basically a three-way split with Labour and, very unusually for this borough, the Liberal Democrats. The other wards, as befits a seat which now has semi-marginal Labour characteristics, with the clear exception of safe Tory Northcote range from marginal or semi-marginal Tory (Lavender, next to Northcote), split wards between Labour and Tory (Balham, and St Mary's), marginal or semi-marginal Labour (Battersea Park) to safe Labour (Shaftesbury & Queenstown, once a Tory ward, or wards, on former boundaries, and above all Falconbrook). The dichotomy between local and parliamentary elections remains, meaning that Labour continues to perform consistently better in parliamentary than in local elections here. It is doubtful that the Tories outpolled Labour in any ward in the constituency in the 2024 general election, not even one suspects Northcote.
Everything in Battersea's garden (which nowadays includes the New Covent Garden Market, in its far north-eastern corner) seemed lovely for the Conservatives, in the aftermaths of both the 1992 and the 2015 elections. Labour has been tipped to be shut out of this territory permanently on more than one occasion, and there is no doubt that the Tories have a firmer base than they did half a century ago. However, after 2017 Labour had a useful though not large majority here, which rose to a very comfortable one indeed in 2024, and it may well be quite some time before the Conservatives get a look-in again; they will have a better chance of success if and when they can reconnect with the professionals they have seen as their natural supporters for so many years.
BATTERSEA
This seat dates back to 1983, after when, until the 2024 boundary changes, it was almost unaltered like all Wandsworth constituencies; before then, there were North and South Battersea seats. Battersea North was a perennial Labour stronghold, with sweeping working-class and artisan terraces interspersed with council estates, some of them sizeable. When Battersea was created, it seemed natural that the Labour North would outvote the more mixed South, and so it proved. But already by then the area was changing, and in 1987 the Tories won the seat. Since then, it has had largely marginal characteristics (although there have been times when the Tories appeared to be about to put it out of Labour's reach, especially the 2015 election), at least until the 2024 general election, that is. The boundary changes have excised a section of central Wandsworth town from the constituency, but this has had very little if any partisan effect.
Battersea became a very desirable location for upwardly mobile, often City, professionals after the early 1980s, with its solidly-built Victorian terraces close to London and close to attractive green spaces such as Battersea Park and Clapham Common. It was, like Fulham, a natural place for prosperous people who were not quite wealthy enough, or who had other reasons not, to buy property in neighbouring Chelsea, for example. They helped to reinforce the narrow Conservative majority on Wandsworth council, which in its turn helped with a project of attempted social engineering which frowned upon social housing but smiled upon executive homes, though this social engineering was always rather less direct that that seen in Westminster at the same time. These professionals have largely stayed, but there remain large council estates, particularly in Falconbrook ward north of Clapham Junction station, but also in other wards, especially Battersea Park. While parts of the constituency have been transformed from shabby White and Black working-class areas of owner-occupied and privately-rented terraced houses to expensive, restaurant-filled localities, others have resisted major social change. Some of the voters here are not unlike those found in Putney to the west, but the pockets of ultra-affluence are perhaps a little less extensive, and the constituency is quite a bit less White-dominated than Putney too, retaining much of its old Caribbean community. As well as Battersea itself (this takes in Clapham Junction), the constituency includes parts of the Balham, Wandsworth and Clapham communities, and the recently heavily developed Nine Elms area (or that part of it that lies in the borough of Wandsworth); the Wandsworth town element has been reduced in the boundary changes. Again, as with almost all of the most affluent parts of London, the owner-occupied voters tend to be relatively social liberal even if they have voted Conservative at times (both of the 2 Conservative MPs who have won here are identified broadly with the left of that party), and were very pro-Remain in the 2016 referendum. This has tended to alienate even many very prosperous City workers from the Conservatives in national elections since then, and the seat, despite seeing a comfortable-looking Tory win in the 2015 election, swung heavily to Labour's Marsha De Cordova as she took it with votes to spare in 2017. The salience of Europe as an issue in the 2019 election, and De Cordova's broadly pro-Remain stance, prevented the Tories from coming all that close from retaking the seat in 2019. It is another seat where Europe has loomed large as an election issue, and the Conservatives will have to reconnect with their erstwhile pro-Remain voters if they are to retake it in the future; and they fell a good deal further back in the 2024 general election, with De Cordova's Labour share rising by more than the national average, despite the rise in the Green share of the vote, and the Tories in contrast dropping by a further 12%. The Conservatives were very dominant in local elections within the constituency for roughly a generation, with (before the 2022 ward boundary changes) only Latchmere having usually safe Labour characteristics. In the most recent local elections, many Conservative councillors were swept away by the tide to Labour, and the only completely safe Tory ward in this constituency is now Northcote, a network of heavily gentrified 19th century homes, mostly terraced, between the Commons; this is now by some distance the safest Tory ward in the entire borough, not just in the Battersea constituency, although way back in 1971 before gentrification Labour managed to win here (they did not in some wards which now have Labour councillors, for example Putney and Nightingale elsewhere in the borough). There is a completely new ward, Nine Elms, created because of extensive, mostly high-end and high-rise, residential development hard by the border with the borough of Lambeth close to Vauxhall station. This ward is said to have a large number of non-UK nationals who cannot vote in British elections, and it took well under 400 votes for the Conservatives to win both seats, in what was basically a three-way split with Labour and, very unusually for this borough, the Liberal Democrats. The other wards, as befits a seat which now has semi-marginal Labour characteristics, with the clear exception of safe Tory Northcote range from marginal or semi-marginal Tory (Lavender, next to Northcote), split wards between Labour and Tory (Balham, and St Mary's), marginal or semi-marginal Labour (Battersea Park) to safe Labour (Shaftesbury & Queenstown, once a Tory ward, or wards, on former boundaries, and above all Falconbrook). The dichotomy between local and parliamentary elections remains, meaning that Labour continues to perform consistently better in parliamentary than in local elections here. It is doubtful that the Tories outpolled Labour in any ward in the constituency in the 2024 general election, not even one suspects Northcote.
Everything in Battersea's garden (which nowadays includes the New Covent Garden Market, in its far north-eastern corner) seemed lovely for the Conservatives, in the aftermaths of both the 1992 and the 2015 elections. Labour has been tipped to be shut out of this territory permanently on more than one occasion, and there is no doubt that the Tories have a firmer base than they did half a century ago. However, after 2017 Labour had a useful though not large majority here, which rose to a very comfortable one indeed in 2024, and it may well be quite some time before the Conservatives get a look-in again; they will have a better chance of success if and when they can reconnect with the professionals they have seen as their natural supporters for so many years.
