Hampstead and Highgate

[Deleted]

As a former resident of Highgate ward in Haringey, I'll give this one a go.

Hampstead & Highgate contains the wards of Belsize, Fortune Green, Frognal, Gospel Oak, Hampstead Town, Highgate (Camden), Highgate (Haringey), Kilburn, Primrose Hill, South Hampstead, and West Hampstead. Highgate is in one seat for the first time since 1832. Here's a map of the new seat.

There was an earlier seat with this name from 1983 to 2010. That seat was entirely within the London Borough of Camden, while the modern incarnation includes the Haringey ward of Highgate. Geoffrey Finsberg (a former Councillor for the now-abolished Hampstead Central ward) won that seat's first two contests before retiring in 1992. 1992 saw the late Glenda Jackson snatch this seat from the Tories in the form of Oliver Letwin (whatever happened to him?). She held the seat in the next three elections before winning the reconfigured Hampstead & Kilburn (a Brent-Camden affair) in 2010. Labour narrowly won it with a new candidate in the form of Tulip Siddiq in 2015 before massively strengthening its position due to Brexit, amongst other things.

Hampstead is often caricatured as a hotbed of champagne socialism - not unfairly - Michael Foot lived on Pilgrims Lane, and Karl Marx was a resident (now buried in Highgate cemetery). However, given the house prices, that's less true now, and many bankers live here.

This seat is famous for its many private schools, including University College School (where Tristram Hunt was a pupil), South Hampstead High School, Channing School and Highgate School (where Tony Crosland ("if it's the last thing I do, I'll close every f****** grammar school in England and Wales"), David Burrowes and others were alumni). The last two schools are on the Haringey side of Highgate High Street.

At 220 acres, Hampstead Heath (now reunited in a single constituency) is Inner London's most expansive open space, saved from development in 1871. Parliament Hill affords commanding views over London, and Kenwood House (now managed by English Heritage) anchors the northern edge of the heath, next to Hampstead Lane.

There is also Lauderdale House and Fenton House (National Trust-run) in Hampstead. However, this is far from a 'villa' constituency, and there is extensive social housing, particularly on the border with Islington and across Kilburn, West Hampstead and the seat more generally.

The average house price here is well over £1 million, and Hampstead supposedly has more millionaires than anywhere else in the UK.

Hampstead and Highgate also lend their names to the local paper (Ham & High). The seat is generally well-connected to central London with several Northern Line stops (including Hampstead, famous for its deep platform 400 steps down) and Overground stations in the Camden part.

The seat is also known for its hospitals, including the Royal Free and the Tavistock & Portman clinic (recently in the news for its gender reassignment services).

At the local level, the picture is very mixed. In 2022, Labour won the lion's share of seats, but the Lib Dems, Tories and Greens all have a presence here. The Tories hold three seats in this constituency, two in Frognal and one in Hampstead Town. Labour won Hampstead Town for the first time since its 1964 creation in 2022, before the unexpected victor Adrian Cohen called it quits, and the Lib Dems took the seat. The Highgate wards have a varied history. The Lib Dems have held all three seats in Haringey's Highate ward since 2002 (though Labour can get close in good years like 2014 or 2022.

The current breakdown of local Councillors is 19 Labour, 8 Lib Dem: 3 Conservative, 1 Green. There have been several local by-elections here in recent years, all of which were competitive.

Highgate ward in Camden boasts the delightful Waterlow Park (saved for the nation by Lord Mayor of London Sydney Waterlow in 1889, there's a quaint statue of him in the park), and Highgate Cemetary is a famous landmark where you can pay to see Karl Marx's tomb (I wonder what the scion of socialism would make of that sort of redistribution of wealth).

Camden's Highgate ward is a mixed bag and has probably voted Labour in every General Election since 1987. This ward routinely sends a Green Councillor to Camden Town Hall (including Sian Berry, who is now seeking the Green Party nomination to succeed Caroline Lucas in Brighton). Some of the property in this ward is positively plutocratic (Witanhurst on Pond Square is the second largest house in London after Buckingham Palace) as you approach the Haringey boundary, and Kate Moss, George Michael and others have called this area home. Down the hill in Dartmouth Park, you might spot resident Benedict Cumberbatch.

Evidence of the history of this area is evident in its former coaching inns, including The Bull & Last on Highgate West Hill (famous as the last stop before Leeds). There are no longer any animals on Hampstead Heath, but as recently as the 1940s, cows graised on Parliament Hill. Further back in time, the Hampstead ponds' water was said to have therapeutic qualities, and two Fuller's pubs in this seat bear the name Flask to this day. The heath has single-sex, mixed ponds, a running track where the local running club (where the Highgate Harriers train) and an art deco lido (pretty chilly and not for the faint-hearted if you're considering trying it).

Moving southwest, you reach Belsize Park and Primrose Hill (Primrose Hill is another chocolate box park with commanding views over London) and is famous for its pastel-coloured houses (Chalcot Square is one striking example). The Northern Line serves the area at Chalk Farm. This area is a stone's throw from the Regents Canal and Regents Park and has a genuine villagey feel.

Gospel Oak is immediately south of the Heath, with a network of Victorian and Edwardian streets before giving way to some interwar developments and more recent post-war council housing towards Kentish Town.

Generally, this seat is diverse, Kilburn is famous for its Irish community, and there's a sizeable Jewish population and several synagogues. Gospel Oak, in particular, has a large Muslim community. There is even a Sri Lankan temple on Archway Road in Highgate, just before the seat's boundary with Islington North (the Archway Bridge).

West Hampstead has always been a bit more ordinary than the 'village' areas closer to the Heath with somewhat lower house prices in that area, although, given the Overground and the Jubilee Line, this is still an attractive place to live. This area used to be a bit of a three-way fight in local elections, but the Conservatives have fallen away here.

Hampstead & Highgate is a seat where Labour start in a commanding position, and it looks more likely that the Lib Dems may challenge Labour here when that party returns to government. Still, the Tory vote is relatively inelastic in parts (as the recent South Hampstead by-election shows). Labour can expect to win Gospel Oak, Highgate (Camden), Kilburn and West Hampstead, while the Tories are usually ahead in Frognal and Hampstead Town, with the Lib Dems running strong in Highgate (Haringey) with other wards far more competitive.

[John Chanin]

I will be updating my profile along with all my others.

[jamie]

Jul 8, 2023 6:31:08 GMT @weld said:

47% of children in Camden attend independent schools

Have you got a source for this? It immediately jumped out to me as a much higher number than I would have expected (with no particular knowledge I should say). 

[greatkingrat]

Jul 8, 2023 12:02:05 GMT jamie said:

Jul 8, 2023 6:31:08 GMT @weld said:

47% of children in Camden attend independent schools

Have you got a source for this? It immediately jumped out to me as a much higher number than I would have expected (with no particular knowledge I should say). 

I doubt he has a source because it isn't true. The correct figure is 30%

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/a53138ca-d39a-4b78-3800-08db7e98c4f9

Top 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
City of London 90.8%, Kensington & Chelsea 44.7%, Westminster 30.8%, Camden 30.2%, Richmond 26.7%, Rutland 25.9%, Hammersmith & Fulham 24.3, Hackney 23.5, Wandsworth 23.2%, Surrey 20.1%

Bottom 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
Thurrock, South Tyneside, Isles of Scilly (all none), Hartlepool 0.1%, Knowsley 0.12%, Rotherham 0.16%, Swindon 0.21%, Halton 0.22%, Warrington 0.22%, North Tyneside 0.23%

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 12:31:21 GMT greatkingrat said:

Jul 8, 2023 12:02:05 GMT jamie said:

Have you got a source for this? It immediately jumped out to me as a much higher number than I would have expected (with no particular knowledge I should say). 

I doubt he has a source because it isn't true. The correct figure is 30%

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/a53138ca-d39a-4b78-3800-08db7e98c4f9

Top 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
City of London 90.8%, Kensington & Chelsea 44.7%, Westminster 30.8%, Camden 30.2%, Richmond 26.7%, Rutland 25.9%, Hammersmith & Fulham 24.3, Hackney 23.5, Wandsworth 23.2%, Surrey 20.1%

Bottom 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
Thurrock, South Tyneside, Isles of Scilly (all none), Hartlepool 0.1%, Knowsley 0.12%, Rotherham 0.16%, Swindon 0.21%, Halton 0.22%, Warrington 0.22%, North Tyneside 0.23%

Profile updated.

[bjornhattan]

Jul 8, 2023 12:31:21 GMT greatkingrat said:

Jul 8, 2023 12:02:05 GMT jamie said:

Have you got a source for this? It immediately jumped out to me as a much higher number than I would have expected (with no particular knowledge I should say). 

I doubt he has a source because it isn't true. The correct figure is 30%

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/a53138ca-d39a-4b78-3800-08db7e98c4f9

Top 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
City of London 90.8%, Kensington & Chelsea 44.7%, Westminster 30.8%, Camden 30.2%, Richmond 26.7%, Rutland 25.9%, Hammersmith & Fulham 24.3, Hackney 23.5, Wandsworth 23.2%, Surrey 20.1%

Bottom 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
Thurrock, South Tyneside, Isles of Scilly (all none), Hartlepool 0.1%, Knowsley 0.12%, Rotherham 0.16%, Swindon 0.21%, Halton 0.22%, Warrington 0.22%, North Tyneside 0.23%

I don't doubt that your 30% figure for Camden is more accurate than that initial 47%, but those figures seem a little strange. Of the 550 children in the City of London, 195 are in council housing; it's not impossible that some of those attend independent schools on bursaries but most of them would have to for the numbers to make sense. It also seems unlikely that no children in South Tyneside at all are privately educated - I wouldn't expect many but you'd think there'd be a handful of kids travelling from the Boldon area to RGS (given how affluent it is and the fact it's a fairly short Metro journey). Are those figures just based on the schools within the local authority in question or do they take into account commuting between authorities?

[Sibboleth]

Yes, it's based on school headcount data and not households/where the pupils are residents. So e.g. the City of London has over two thousand pupils listed and so on.

[batman]

another very famous resident of Highgate was Yehudi Menuhin.

The largest park in London is Richmond Park (by some distance)

[bjornhattan]

Another fact about this constituency from the 2021 census - it has the highest proportion of resident workers who work wholly or mostly from home, at 61.5%.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 17:48:41 GMT batman said:

The largest park in London is Richmond Park (by some distance)

Profile updated to say Inner London. 

[carlton43]

Jul 8, 2023 17:48:41 GMT batman said:

another very famous resident of Highgate was Yehudi Menuhin.

The largest park in London is Richmond Park (by some distance)

Surely in London proper it has to be Hampstead Heath and on the fringes Richmond is easily trumped by Epping Forest.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 16:19:27 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 8, 2023 12:31:21 GMT greatkingrat said:

I doubt he has a source because it isn't true. The correct figure is 30%

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/a53138ca-d39a-4b78-3800-08db7e98c4f9

Top 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
City of London 90.8%, Kensington & Chelsea 44.7%, Westminster 30.8%, Camden 30.2%, Richmond 26.7%, Rutland 25.9%, Hammersmith & Fulham 24.3, Hackney 23.5, Wandsworth 23.2%, Surrey 20.1%

Bottom 10 local authorities by % at independent schools
Thurrock, South Tyneside, Isles of Scilly (all none), Hartlepool 0.1%, Knowsley 0.12%, Rotherham 0.16%, Swindon 0.21%, Halton 0.22%, Warrington 0.22%, North Tyneside 0.23%

I don't doubt that your 30% figure for Camden is more accurate than that initial 47%, but those figures seem a little strange. Of the 550 children in the City of London, 195 are in council housing; it's not impossible that some of those attend independent schools on bursaries but most of them would have to for the numbers to make sense. It also seems unlikely that no children in South Tyneside at all are privately educated - I wouldn't expect many but you'd think there'd be a handful of kids travelling from the Boldon area to RGS (given how affluent it is and the fact it's a fairly short Metro journey). Are those figures just based on the schools within the local authority in question or do they take into account commuting between authorities?

The % of kids in private schools in this seat must be a bit higher than the Camden average given that it contains Highgate, Primrose Hill, Hampstead proper etc. Starmer’s seat probably pulls down the Camden LB figure by a lot.

[Deleted]

Speaking of the City of London, it owns and manages both Hampstead Heath and Highgate Wood in this seat.

[batman]

Jul 8, 2023 21:27:28 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 8, 2023 17:48:41 GMT batman said:

another very famous resident of Highgate was Yehudi Menuhin.

The largest park in London is Richmond Park (by some distance)

Surely in London proper it has to be Hampstead Heath and on the fringes Richmond is easily trumped by Epping Forest.

Richmond Park lies entirely within Greater London, but Epping Forest does not. Also part of Richmond Park does have a London postcode (SW15), and therefore can reasonably be regarded by everyone as being in London proper; indeed, until borough boundary changes not many years ago, part of the park which lies east of Beverley Brook was in the London Borough of Wandsworth, which has been part of London since the 19th century. Nowadays however the park lies entirely within the London Borough of Richmond-upon-Thames.

[Deleted]

Thanks for all your input. Profile updated. There's also a map now. 

[Robert Waller]

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 13.1% 492/575
Owner occupied 38.1% 545/575
Private rented 38.9% 10/575
Social rented 23.0% 85/575
White 65.5% 490/575
Black 7.0% 45/575
Asian 13.7% 141/575
Managerial & professional 53.6 % 3/575
Routine & Semi-routine 10.2% 572/575
Degree level 64.7% 2/575
No qualifications 10.0% 562 /575
Students 8.8% 129/575



Boundary changes

This seat is made up of

63.2% of Hampstead & Kilburn
16.3% of Holborn & St Pancras
11.2% of Hornsey & Wood Green

[hampsteadresident]

Jul 9, 2023 6:26:09 GMT @weld said:

Jul 8, 2023 16:19:27 GMT bjornhattan said:

I don't doubt that your 30% figure for Camden is more accurate than that initial 47%, but those figures seem a little strange. Of the 550 children in the City of London, 195 are in council housing; it's not impossible that some of those attend independent schools on bursaries but most of them would have to for the numbers to make sense. It also seems unlikely that no children in South Tyneside at all are privately educated - I wouldn't expect many but you'd think there'd be a handful of kids travelling from the Boldon area to RGS (given how affluent it is and the fact it's a fairly short Metro journey). Are those figures just based on the schools within the local authority in question or do they take into account commuting between authorities?

The % of kids in private schools in this seat must be a bit higher than the Camden average given that it contains Highgate, Primrose Hill, Hampstead proper etc. Starmer’s seat probably pulls down the Camden LB figure by a lot.

With regards to the type of school attended by resident children in Camden (as opposed to a breakdown of the type of school places within the borough), last year there were multiple news stories that roughly 40% of secondary school pupils living in the borough of Camden attend private schools. Here are a a couple of examples:

www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/55-percent-of-teenagers-not-in-camdens-schools-as-families-go-private#:~:text=Nearly%2040%20per%20cent%20of,committee%20on%20education%20was%20told.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/13/city-without-children-dystopia-new-reality-london

I agree that the figure for Hampstead & Highgate will be significantly higher than than the Camden average as nearly all the more affluent parts of Camden are within this constituency rather than Keir Starmer's constituency. The exception is the "Primrose Hill" part of Primrose Hill ward which is possibly the most affluenct part of Camden (albeit only a very small area), but which has now been excluded from the final version of this seat and is instead in Starmer's constituency as the ward is now split between the two.

As a parent myself living in Hampstead, and someone fairly active in the local community, I can say that without question the majority of families within the Hampstead "proper" postcode area (NW3) send their kids to private schools. Many of these families come from all over the world and when considering where in London to live they tend to choose Hampstead because of the excellent choice of private schools, particularly prep schools; a commonly held view is that the two hotspots for prep schools in London are Kensington and Hampstead and that Hampstead has the more academic variety (e.g. The Hall, Hereward House, UCS, St Anthony's, Hampstead Hill - the list is endless) whereas Kensington comes across as a bit more old money and thus less appealing to families with two parents working full time. The competition for prep school places here is so intense that parents stress about preparing their 3 year old kids for the 4+ selection process (if not the 7+ for those joining later). The state primary schools in Hampstead (E.g. Christ Church, Hampstead Parochial) are actually very well regarded and are oversubscribed, but I know a lot of pupils quite some distance from the school gates which indicates that a lot of Hampstead families are not sending their kids to their local state school. As for secondary school level, even the more liberal minded parents tend to be reluctant to send their kids to a Camden state secondary and are willing to pay for private secondary education (and also pay to tutor their kids for the very competitive 11+ exams).

It has also been widely reported in the local media that house/rental prices in Camden has led to Camden having one of the lowest birth rates (if the lowest) of all local authorities in the country and the exodus of lots of families on more average incomes. Several state primary schools have closed in recent years and more closures are being planned. Essentially we're left with a situation where most families here are either (i) extremely affluent and send their kids to private schools or (ii) live on Council estates and send their kids to the local state school. I am seeing fewer and fewer people in the middle. There is definitely as sense of "them" and "us" between these two groups and there are certainly some types who don't send their kids to the local state schools simply because of the fear having to mix with kids from the other group.

I would say that it is due to the high presence of private schools that the Tory vote is so stubborn in Hampstead and why the Tories vote is so difficult for the Libdems to squeeze. This will be particularly so if Labour insist on keeping its policy on private schools which will almost certainly cause private school fees to rocket (and which is already causing fear amongst certain parents). Labour-run Camden Council is also particularly unpopular with residents in the wider Hampstead area, and for this reason campaigning on local issues here tends to help the Tories - examples include the redevelopment of the O2 centre (where the Tories nearly won South Hampstead in a by-election earlier this year) and the issue with cycle lanes and the removal of parking spaces affecting trade on Haverstock Hill (causing Labour to remain in 3rd place in Belsize Ward in last year's elections despite it coinciding with the day of BJ's resignation).

Just for the avoidance of doubt, I am only seeking to explain why the Tory vote here is so stubborn and difficult to squeeze. Ultimately the vast majority of households here do not have children and also home ownership levels here are very low. Also, as mentioned above, a lot of families who send their kids to private schools are not British and often only stay in London for a few years before moving on and may not necessarily be voters. Unless the Tories return to appealing to young liberal minded renters, they'll never achieve anything near the 2010 and 2015 results.

[batman]

Given its demography it's not that surprising that the Hampstead Tory vote has not at this point gone into the free-fall typical of so many parts of inner London. Maybe the surprise is how badly it's doing in my borough of Richmond-upon-Thames especially on the Richmond side of the river.

[John Chanin]

This new seat bears more resemblance to the 1983-2010 seat of the same name, than to the Hampstead & Kilburn seat which succeeded it. Hampstead and Highgate are linked - or separated - by the semi-wild open space of Hampstead Heath. This is one of London’s largest open spaces - not a manicured park, but a piece of country that somehow never got built on as London expanded around it. The mansion of Kenwood House, with its art gallery sits just of Spaniards Road - the semi-rural road that connects Hampstead with Highgate along the ridge line.

The Camden section of Highgate, returning from its 13 year banishment to Holborn & St Pancras, is quite distinctive. As well as its famous cemetery with the grave of Karl Marx, it has a very low percentage of private renting for London, with both significant amounts of social housing at its southern end, which blends into Kentish Town, and high levels of owner-occupation at its northern end, some of which around Highgate Village is positively plutocratic. The Boundary Commission has made the interesting decision to add the Highgate ward of Haringey, which makes considerable sense. The ward is similar demographically, and equally low density, although with a tenure mix more typical of Hampstead, and is separated from Fortis Green and Muswell Hill by Highgate and Queen’s Woods, with the A1 running through it. South of Hampstead Heath, Highgate is linked with Hampstead by Gospel Oak, which is decidedly down market with nearly 50% social housing tenants, although still with the typical inner London pattern of over 50% in managerial jobs and with degrees. Social housing tenants in London have a very different profile to those elsewhere.

Hampstead has a reputation as the epicentre of the liberal intelligentsia. Many of the Jewish refugees from Hitler settled here, including Sigmund Freud. However this isn’t really true these days. Many of those that fit that description have died or moved on, although the Jewish population is still the 7th highest in the country. What is true is that Hampstead is the home of the rich. There are many foreigners in the centre of Hampstead - the “other white” census category accounts for over a quarter of the population. And there are very many well paid professionals, often working in finance in the city. Rich people come to live here because it is a good place to live. The centre of Hampstead has Georgian property as well as gated mansions, but down the hill in Belsize Park there are just huge stuccoed Victorian houses, mostly divided into flats. Also here are the grade 1 listed Isokon Flats, epitome of the Bauhaus movement. The Royal Free Hospital sits at South End Green, with the original Miliband family home nearby. Many famous people have lived, and still live here, including the poet John Keats, whose old house is a museum. Over 70% of people in Hampstead proper and Highgate are in managerial or professional ocupations, with degrees, and unusually for inner London are white.

The Boundary Commission had difficulties in north London, and this seat was its third try. It decided to split the Primrose Hill ward. Primrose Hill itself is as up market as Hampstead, but the part included in this constiuency is very different. It consists of the serried row of council tower blocks along Adelaide Road, a classic illustration of the extremes of wealth and deprivation side by side in inner London. On the west side of the A41 Finchley Road is the separate area of West Hampstead, with smaller houses, which is simply very well off, with just 65% in managerial occupations and with degrees, and over 60% white, although some of the very highest private rented figures in the country are found here - over 45% of households.  Hampstead itself may well be the best educated area with the highest managerial jobs in the country. However Kilburn is very different. It has over 40% council housing (including the award winning and listed Alexandra Road Estate, which backs onto one of the railway lines coming out of Euston) with just 20% owner-occupation. It is the only ward less than 50% white, with a sizeable black population, and more than twice the number of people in routine jobs compared to Hampstead. This anomalous area however forms only a small part of the constituency.

Historically Hampstead was a generally Conservative seat, which Labour could win in a very good year as the liberal attitudes of many inhabitants partly offset the wealth. Labour won here narrowly in 1992, with actress Glenda Jackson defeating the new Conservative candidate Oliver Letwin, and she had little difficulty in defending the seat thereafter, with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote evenly split. In 2010 Highgate was removed, and three wards added from Brent. In normal circumstances this ought to have made the seat safer, but there was a complication. The abolished Brent East seat had been won by the Liberal Democrats at a by-election. Sitting MP Sarah Teather chose to follow the majority of her seat into Brent Central, and perhaps this made a difference. In a poor year for Labour this was the closest 3-party result in England, with Jackson scraping home by just 42 votes. The Conservatives would very likely have won under the new boundaries. Jackson stood down in 2015 to return to acting, and the current MP is Tulip Siddiq, best known as being the niece of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, although she has lived all her life in Britain, her parents having come here as refugees, albeit very privileged ones. She had the classic charity/think tank/Spad background of many current MPs of all parties before her election.

The 2021 census figures for the new seat tell the tale. The highest managerial and professional percentage in the country, the second lowest routine, and second highest with degrees. As such there is clearly still a potentially large non-Labour vote here, although politics these days is much less class based. The Conservatives still hold the two central Hampstead wards at local level, and the Liberal Democrats the Haringey Highgate ward, with traditional strength in West Hampstead. The Labour vote has probably been enhanced by the focus on membership of the European Union - Camden voted 75% to remain, and it would have been even higher in this part of the borough. The revised seat therefore cannot be considered entirely safe for Labour, should political divisions return to a more traditional pattern.

The 2024 election result was very different from other inner city seats, reflecting the particular character here. Labour actually increased their share of the vote and their majority, despite the Conservative vote dropping much less than usual. Very different from south Camden, although the surge in the Green vote was more typical.

Census data: Owner-occupied 38% (545/575 in England & Wales), private rented 39% (10th), social rented 23% (85th).
                      : White 65%(483rd), Black 7%(94th), South Asian 8%(142nd), Mixed 7%(24th), Other 13%(30th)
                      : Managerial & professional 65% (1st), Routine & Semi-routine 12% (574th)
                      : Degree 65% (2nd), Minimal qualifications 14% (571st)
                      : Students 9% (129th), Over 65: 13% (492nd)
                      : Jewish 8%(7th)

Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 73% from Hampstead & Kilburn, 15% from Holborn & St Pancras, and 13% from Hornsey & Wood Green
                       65% of the old seat is in the new one, with 25% going to Queens Park & Maida Vale, and 10% to Brent East

	2017	%	2019	%	Notional	%	2024	%
Labour	34,464	59.0	28,080	48.9	27,338	47.6	23,432	48.3
Conservative	18,904	32.4	13,892	24.2	13,296	23.2	8,462	17.4
Liberal Democrat	4,100	7.0	13,121	22.9	13,938	24.3	6,181	12.7
Brexit/Reform			684	1.2	719	1.3	2,940	6.1
Green	742	1.3	1,608	2.8	2,096	3.7	6,630	13.7
Other	197	0.3					905	1.9
Majority	15,560	26.6	14,188	24.7	13,400	23.4	14,970	30.8