Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 22:26:06 GMT
Edited to take into account the 2024 election result.
PUTNEY
This constituency was formed in 1918, and for many years had a Wandsworth prefix. Putney is a mostly prosperous not-quite-inner, not-quite-outer suburb in south-west London, well-known for being the location of the start of the annual University Boat Race, although it has always had a working-class minority spread throughout the constituency. It was, despite being the birthplace of Clem Attlee, a comfortably safe Conservative seat for its first 46 years, even in 1945. Then in the late 1950s and early 1960s came the construction of the very large Roehampton council estate(s), adding to some older existing council estates in the area; Roehampton had previously been a very strongly Conservative, almost in part villagey area with a quaint little high street (it still is to some extent even now), and now became a Labour stronghold, which it has largely remained, especially in general elections, ever since. The architecture was novel enough to be featured on a series of postage stamps. This massive council estate construction transformed the constituency into a marginal, and Labour (who had already reduced the Tory majority against the national trend in 1959) gained it in 1964, a Tory Hugh (Linstead) ousted by a Labour Hugh (Jenkins). With Labour doing very well to hold on in 1970, it was to be 15 years before the Tories ousted Jenkins, by then over 70 years old, the new Tory MP being the combative, later-to-be-famous David Mellor, nowadays a classical music radio presenter. Mellor managed to increase his previously modest majority against the national swing in two successive elections, in 1987 and 1992, apparently making the constituency virtually safe for the Tories as gentrification of some once moderately working-class owner-occupied streets, as in neighbouring Battersea, made Labour rely increasingly on the council estate minority, and some "intellectual" upper-middle-class Labour support which has always been something of a feature here. But it was not to be as the axe fell in 1997, Labour's Tony Colman winning by over 2,500 with a "routine" swing of over 10%. The Tories regained the seat in 2005, their winner being Yorkshirewoman Justine Greening, like her predecessor Mellor destined to achieve Cabinet office, and went into an unprecedentedly large lead in the 2010 and 2015 elections, making the seat look safer than at any time since World War II - only to see that lead wiped out by two big swings in the next two elections (that in 2017 being extraordinary, as Labour's candidate was controversial and the local party did very little work) which saw the Labour candidate Fleur Anderson elected in 2019, making this the party's solitary outright gain in that otherwise benighted general election; and it wasn't even close, with her majority being the largest yet recorded for Labour in the constituency. How have Labour gone from being in an apparently no-hope position to rule the local roost to the extent that they now do, a ruling of the roost that was emphatically increased still further in the 2024 election? Perhaps some analysis may give us some clues. One contributory factor must surely be Greening's falling out with the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson's premiership; she herself was not in possession of the Conservative Whip at the dissolution of parliament in 2019, and declined to stand in the election, her pretty strong personal vote therefore no longer being available to the Tories.
Putney itself is the largest element of the constituency, forming 3 entire council wards (East Putney, Thamesfield and West Putney) and bits of some others. A chunk of Wandsworth is also included, which is now to be extended in the boundary changes to take in almost all of Wandsworth's town (as opposed to borough) centre; this also can be said to include Southfields which shares Wandsworth town's SW18 postcode. Southfields station is very familiar to tennis fans or indeed players who use it to get to the nearby All England Lawn Tennis Club, a few feet over the borough boundary in Wimbledon. As well as the afore-mentioned Roehampton, the seat takes in one further area, that part, essentially, of the Wimbledon community which lies within the borough of Wandsworth, including a large part of its Wombles-frequented common. The seat certainly has its green spaces, and even Roehampton despite its large council tower blocks and strong population density in some of its council estates is a very large ward in area, a good two miles from its north to its south.
Any serious analysis of this constituency has to take into account local electoral politics. Wandsworth council was politically marginal, like this constituency, in its early history, but was grabbed by the Tories in 1978, when the Labour government was somewhat unpopular. The new Tory council proved to be a pioneering one, prepared to outsource previously almost unthinkable council services, and willing at times to sell off entire council-built blocks (although they still maintained a range of council services, and perhaps curiously did not transfer their remaining council housing stock to housing associations as many other councils have chosen to do). Their warm relationship with their kindred spirit Conservative government led from 1979 by Margaret Thatcher led to highly favourable financial settlements with central government, which enabled the council to levy unusually small rates, and then poll tax when that was introduced in the latter stages of her government. Local voters, even those with little natural affinity with the Conservative Party, accepted with a variety of reactions ranging from grudging respect to wholehearted support that the council was providing good-value services and rewarded the Tories with an unbroken series of local election wins (though it was very close in 1986 and 2018, in both of which years the Tories retained control despite securing very slightly fewer votes than Labour). At one point the Labour group on the council dwindled to such an extent that it seemed that Tory control would never end, despite Labour generally managing to gain more general election votes in the borough, and often seats, than the Tories. But eventually a series of factors brought their long rule to an end, which happened finally in 2022. On top of the generally high approval ratings of the council, the Tories even managed to break through and win in Roehampton ward in 1998, aided by a perception (incorrect though it turned out) that the health service reforms of the recently elected Labour government endangered the local Queen Mary's hospital. Not until 2010, when the local elections were held on the same day as the general election, did Labour manage to regain even one of the seats in this once fiercely safe ward. For twelve years, the Tories had a full slate of councillors in the constituency, and it was not until 2018 that Labour started to break out and win outside Roehampton in local elections here. Since Fleur Anderson's breakthrough in the 2019 general election, though, things have considerably changed, and partly on her coattails some might say Labour has become competitive in local government here as well as in the parliamentary seat. The Tories are still stronger in local than in national elections in this constituency, but at least looking at the last local elections gives us some sort of idea as to which wards are stronger or weaker for Labour and the Conservatives.
No fewer than four wards in this constituency currently have their representation split between Labour and the Conservatives, of which only one, West Hill, had a Labour councillor before 2022 (it uniquely in Wandsworth also has a councillor, evidently extremely popular, elected as an Independent); apart from West Hill, these are Wandsworth Town, West Putney and East Putney, the Labour gain in the latter being the most surprising of all. The latter two wards had never elected a Labour councillor, at least not in the post-1964 era, before 2022. These wards are all very socially polarised, though Wandsworth Town's social polarisation is a little less stark and obvious than that of the others, and the council estate element of East Putney is perhaps a little less down-at-heel than average, as well as being a little smaller. Wandsworth town centre is not a thing of great beauty by any stretch of the imagination, though some of the more recent additions to the Southside shopping centre look a bit less dowdy, but the other three wards all have houses and flats of considerable wealth and splendour; some of those in West Hill, in certain cases actually overlooking the AELTC across the borough boundary in Merton, are the homes of tennis stars both past and present. The only ward firmly in the Labour column is Roehampton, which has regained its traditional name after a period as Roehampton & Putney Heath, following the transfer of Putney Heath and its extremely upmarket old houses back to West Putney ward. Roehampton is considerably more multiethnic than Putney proper and contains large Black Caribbean and Black African communities, although it too is socially polarised, some of its council estates in Clarence Lane being close to some superwealthy roads close to the Roehampton Gate of Richmond Park. One more unusual minority for which Roehampton (and to a lesser extent some neighbouring wards) is noted is a significant White South African population. Wandsworth town also has a long-established British Caribbean community, and this still remains the case. The Tories still have a coherent vote in Roehampton, particularly in local elections, but Labour has reestablished a good lead there with relatively minimal effort. Roehampton ward also includes the local university campus, the headquarters of British tennis, and the Priory Hospital, noted for its rehabilitation programme for those suffering from addictions, who have included a number of celebrities. Roehampton politically is almost balanced by Thamesfield ward, which stretches from (again) wealthy Putney Common and its large mansions to the fringes of Wandsworth, by the banks of the River Wandle. This ward, not East or West Putney, takes in the great majority of Putney's town centre, which has a notably more thriving appearance than Wandsworth's. Thamesfield ward's terraced housing stock has marched a very long way upmarket since the days in 1971 when Labour was able to win here (large mostly private apartment developments have also taken place since then), and the ward still has a comfortable if not particularly large Tory majority. The constituency is completed by Southfields ward. This ought really to be pretty safe for the Tories, shorn as it is of the Labour-voting Southside area of central Wandsworth, but surprisingly Labour was very close to gaining a seat there in 2022 despite this highly unfavourable boundary change. Some council estates of decent size can be found in every ward, but they are outnumbered by privately owned or rented homes in Southfields, Thamesfield and East Putney, and only in Roehampton ward are they dominant; they are fairly close to equal to private homes in West Putney, which includes the pre-war model low-rise council estate which climbs up the Dover House Road (even though quite a lot of it has been sold off to the private sector), West Hill and Wandsworth Town. Essentially much of this constituency remains somewhere between pretty prosperous and, at times, downright wealthy. It is not that difficult to understand why the Tories have at times racked up large majorities even in parliamentary elections, not just in local ones. Their recent travails have an enormous amount to do with the issue of Europe and Brexit, just as in neighbouring Richmond Park. Much of the Conservative vote here is deeply rooted in Conservative traditions, and not of the more strident kind seen in some counties outside London (or in some of London's outer suburbs in certain cases). These voters were not remotely keen on Brexit, and like Richmond Park this constituency voted overwhelmingly to Remain in 2016. It is no coincidence that since that time the Tories have been on the end of such large swings against them, as they have struggled to retain, particularly in parliamentary elections, the votes of many of their traditional supporters.
Fleur Anderson seems to be a good fit for this area and this is one of a number of constituencies in this swathe of London where the Tories may well continue to struggle until they can once again appeal to their erstwhile mostly well-off supporters. In the 2024 election, their woes increased quite a lot further, as Labour's vote share increased by well above the national average, and the Tory share dropped by 13%. The swing here, in a seat whose outcome was not regarded as in serious doubt by almost anyone, was only slightly below the national average, and well above the average for London. Anderson has achieved more than double the Conservative vote, a far higher margin than ever seen before here for a successful Labour candidate, and way ahead of Labour's performance in the 2022 local elections, which in themselves were arguably Labour's best-ever set of results in this constituency since the formation of the present-day borough of Wandworth in the 1960s. One day the Conservatives will surely take rather closer order, but for now the Labour Party is in an uncharacteristically strong position in this historically marginal seat.
PUTNEY
This constituency was formed in 1918, and for many years had a Wandsworth prefix. Putney is a mostly prosperous not-quite-inner, not-quite-outer suburb in south-west London, well-known for being the location of the start of the annual University Boat Race, although it has always had a working-class minority spread throughout the constituency. It was, despite being the birthplace of Clem Attlee, a comfortably safe Conservative seat for its first 46 years, even in 1945. Then in the late 1950s and early 1960s came the construction of the very large Roehampton council estate(s), adding to some older existing council estates in the area; Roehampton had previously been a very strongly Conservative, almost in part villagey area with a quaint little high street (it still is to some extent even now), and now became a Labour stronghold, which it has largely remained, especially in general elections, ever since. The architecture was novel enough to be featured on a series of postage stamps. This massive council estate construction transformed the constituency into a marginal, and Labour (who had already reduced the Tory majority against the national trend in 1959) gained it in 1964, a Tory Hugh (Linstead) ousted by a Labour Hugh (Jenkins). With Labour doing very well to hold on in 1970, it was to be 15 years before the Tories ousted Jenkins, by then over 70 years old, the new Tory MP being the combative, later-to-be-famous David Mellor, nowadays a classical music radio presenter. Mellor managed to increase his previously modest majority against the national swing in two successive elections, in 1987 and 1992, apparently making the constituency virtually safe for the Tories as gentrification of some once moderately working-class owner-occupied streets, as in neighbouring Battersea, made Labour rely increasingly on the council estate minority, and some "intellectual" upper-middle-class Labour support which has always been something of a feature here. But it was not to be as the axe fell in 1997, Labour's Tony Colman winning by over 2,500 with a "routine" swing of over 10%. The Tories regained the seat in 2005, their winner being Yorkshirewoman Justine Greening, like her predecessor Mellor destined to achieve Cabinet office, and went into an unprecedentedly large lead in the 2010 and 2015 elections, making the seat look safer than at any time since World War II - only to see that lead wiped out by two big swings in the next two elections (that in 2017 being extraordinary, as Labour's candidate was controversial and the local party did very little work) which saw the Labour candidate Fleur Anderson elected in 2019, making this the party's solitary outright gain in that otherwise benighted general election; and it wasn't even close, with her majority being the largest yet recorded for Labour in the constituency. How have Labour gone from being in an apparently no-hope position to rule the local roost to the extent that they now do, a ruling of the roost that was emphatically increased still further in the 2024 election? Perhaps some analysis may give us some clues. One contributory factor must surely be Greening's falling out with the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson's premiership; she herself was not in possession of the Conservative Whip at the dissolution of parliament in 2019, and declined to stand in the election, her pretty strong personal vote therefore no longer being available to the Tories.
Putney itself is the largest element of the constituency, forming 3 entire council wards (East Putney, Thamesfield and West Putney) and bits of some others. A chunk of Wandsworth is also included, which is now to be extended in the boundary changes to take in almost all of Wandsworth's town (as opposed to borough) centre; this also can be said to include Southfields which shares Wandsworth town's SW18 postcode. Southfields station is very familiar to tennis fans or indeed players who use it to get to the nearby All England Lawn Tennis Club, a few feet over the borough boundary in Wimbledon. As well as the afore-mentioned Roehampton, the seat takes in one further area, that part, essentially, of the Wimbledon community which lies within the borough of Wandsworth, including a large part of its Wombles-frequented common. The seat certainly has its green spaces, and even Roehampton despite its large council tower blocks and strong population density in some of its council estates is a very large ward in area, a good two miles from its north to its south.
Any serious analysis of this constituency has to take into account local electoral politics. Wandsworth council was politically marginal, like this constituency, in its early history, but was grabbed by the Tories in 1978, when the Labour government was somewhat unpopular. The new Tory council proved to be a pioneering one, prepared to outsource previously almost unthinkable council services, and willing at times to sell off entire council-built blocks (although they still maintained a range of council services, and perhaps curiously did not transfer their remaining council housing stock to housing associations as many other councils have chosen to do). Their warm relationship with their kindred spirit Conservative government led from 1979 by Margaret Thatcher led to highly favourable financial settlements with central government, which enabled the council to levy unusually small rates, and then poll tax when that was introduced in the latter stages of her government. Local voters, even those with little natural affinity with the Conservative Party, accepted with a variety of reactions ranging from grudging respect to wholehearted support that the council was providing good-value services and rewarded the Tories with an unbroken series of local election wins (though it was very close in 1986 and 2018, in both of which years the Tories retained control despite securing very slightly fewer votes than Labour). At one point the Labour group on the council dwindled to such an extent that it seemed that Tory control would never end, despite Labour generally managing to gain more general election votes in the borough, and often seats, than the Tories. But eventually a series of factors brought their long rule to an end, which happened finally in 2022. On top of the generally high approval ratings of the council, the Tories even managed to break through and win in Roehampton ward in 1998, aided by a perception (incorrect though it turned out) that the health service reforms of the recently elected Labour government endangered the local Queen Mary's hospital. Not until 2010, when the local elections were held on the same day as the general election, did Labour manage to regain even one of the seats in this once fiercely safe ward. For twelve years, the Tories had a full slate of councillors in the constituency, and it was not until 2018 that Labour started to break out and win outside Roehampton in local elections here. Since Fleur Anderson's breakthrough in the 2019 general election, though, things have considerably changed, and partly on her coattails some might say Labour has become competitive in local government here as well as in the parliamentary seat. The Tories are still stronger in local than in national elections in this constituency, but at least looking at the last local elections gives us some sort of idea as to which wards are stronger or weaker for Labour and the Conservatives.
No fewer than four wards in this constituency currently have their representation split between Labour and the Conservatives, of which only one, West Hill, had a Labour councillor before 2022 (it uniquely in Wandsworth also has a councillor, evidently extremely popular, elected as an Independent); apart from West Hill, these are Wandsworth Town, West Putney and East Putney, the Labour gain in the latter being the most surprising of all. The latter two wards had never elected a Labour councillor, at least not in the post-1964 era, before 2022. These wards are all very socially polarised, though Wandsworth Town's social polarisation is a little less stark and obvious than that of the others, and the council estate element of East Putney is perhaps a little less down-at-heel than average, as well as being a little smaller. Wandsworth town centre is not a thing of great beauty by any stretch of the imagination, though some of the more recent additions to the Southside shopping centre look a bit less dowdy, but the other three wards all have houses and flats of considerable wealth and splendour; some of those in West Hill, in certain cases actually overlooking the AELTC across the borough boundary in Merton, are the homes of tennis stars both past and present. The only ward firmly in the Labour column is Roehampton, which has regained its traditional name after a period as Roehampton & Putney Heath, following the transfer of Putney Heath and its extremely upmarket old houses back to West Putney ward. Roehampton is considerably more multiethnic than Putney proper and contains large Black Caribbean and Black African communities, although it too is socially polarised, some of its council estates in Clarence Lane being close to some superwealthy roads close to the Roehampton Gate of Richmond Park. One more unusual minority for which Roehampton (and to a lesser extent some neighbouring wards) is noted is a significant White South African population. Wandsworth town also has a long-established British Caribbean community, and this still remains the case. The Tories still have a coherent vote in Roehampton, particularly in local elections, but Labour has reestablished a good lead there with relatively minimal effort. Roehampton ward also includes the local university campus, the headquarters of British tennis, and the Priory Hospital, noted for its rehabilitation programme for those suffering from addictions, who have included a number of celebrities. Roehampton politically is almost balanced by Thamesfield ward, which stretches from (again) wealthy Putney Common and its large mansions to the fringes of Wandsworth, by the banks of the River Wandle. This ward, not East or West Putney, takes in the great majority of Putney's town centre, which has a notably more thriving appearance than Wandsworth's. Thamesfield ward's terraced housing stock has marched a very long way upmarket since the days in 1971 when Labour was able to win here (large mostly private apartment developments have also taken place since then), and the ward still has a comfortable if not particularly large Tory majority. The constituency is completed by Southfields ward. This ought really to be pretty safe for the Tories, shorn as it is of the Labour-voting Southside area of central Wandsworth, but surprisingly Labour was very close to gaining a seat there in 2022 despite this highly unfavourable boundary change. Some council estates of decent size can be found in every ward, but they are outnumbered by privately owned or rented homes in Southfields, Thamesfield and East Putney, and only in Roehampton ward are they dominant; they are fairly close to equal to private homes in West Putney, which includes the pre-war model low-rise council estate which climbs up the Dover House Road (even though quite a lot of it has been sold off to the private sector), West Hill and Wandsworth Town. Essentially much of this constituency remains somewhere between pretty prosperous and, at times, downright wealthy. It is not that difficult to understand why the Tories have at times racked up large majorities even in parliamentary elections, not just in local ones. Their recent travails have an enormous amount to do with the issue of Europe and Brexit, just as in neighbouring Richmond Park. Much of the Conservative vote here is deeply rooted in Conservative traditions, and not of the more strident kind seen in some counties outside London (or in some of London's outer suburbs in certain cases). These voters were not remotely keen on Brexit, and like Richmond Park this constituency voted overwhelmingly to Remain in 2016. It is no coincidence that since that time the Tories have been on the end of such large swings against them, as they have struggled to retain, particularly in parliamentary elections, the votes of many of their traditional supporters.
Fleur Anderson seems to be a good fit for this area and this is one of a number of constituencies in this swathe of London where the Tories may well continue to struggle until they can once again appeal to their erstwhile mostly well-off supporters. In the 2024 election, their woes increased quite a lot further, as Labour's vote share increased by well above the national average, and the Tory share dropped by 13%. The swing here, in a seat whose outcome was not regarded as in serious doubt by almost anyone, was only slightly below the national average, and well above the average for London. Anderson has achieved more than double the Conservative vote, a far higher margin than ever seen before here for a successful Labour candidate, and way ahead of Labour's performance in the 2022 local elections, which in themselves were arguably Labour's best-ever set of results in this constituency since the formation of the present-day borough of Wandworth in the 1960s. One day the Conservatives will surely take rather closer order, but for now the Labour Party is in an uncharacteristically strong position in this historically marginal seat.
