Post by Robert Waller on Jul 6, 2023 11:29:31 GMT
Ayr used to be the core of jointly the shortest Westminster constituency name ever – there was also formerly Eye in Suffolk, any others? In fact the single three-letter word is still used for a seat in the Scottish Parliament, but since 2010 this large seaside town has had to share with two other elements of historic Ayrshire. Not only do both Carrick and Cumnock have distinct identities and political characteristics, but Ayr itself is one of the more starkly divided towns, both in the socio-economic breakdown of its residents and its electoral preferences. All this adds up to a key swing marginal, which has been held by three different parties (and four different MPs) in general elections across less than ten years.
In its first two contests, in 2005 and 2010, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock appeared to be a safe Labour seat. Nearly 70% of its electorate came from the former Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Sandra Osborne, actually the incumbent from the less safe Ayr, twice won the redrawn constituency with a majority of just under 10,000. The Conservatives finished second. Then in the astonishing SNP sweep in 2015, a year after the Scottish independence referendum, she was ousted by the Nationalist Corri Wilson. It was not even close. The SNP share rose from 18% to 49% and they had a lead of over 11,000. Then in 2017 there were more massive swings, and it was the Tories’ turn to advance from 3rd to 1st. The victor was an unusual figure in the Conservative party, Bill Grant: a popular local, a miner’s son born in the Doon Valley (in the 'Cumnock' third of the seat) and for over 30 years working in the Ayr fire service. He was already in his mid 60s in 2017, and after only two years chose to retire. The loss of his undoubted personal vote will have made some difference, but whether it would have been enough to stop the SNP regaining Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and returning Allan Dorans to Westminster (December 2019 majority 2,329) is a moot point.
Each of the three contending parties through the 2010s had areas of strength to call on within this very disparate constituency. Ayr itself is a substantial town of over 50,000 souls and harbours a wide variety of neighbourhoods. Recent proof of that can be seen in the most recent South Ayrshire council election results, in May 2022. Ayr West ward lies along the Firth of Clyde seafront but also effectively covers the southern residential areas of the town, and includes the neighbourhoods of Seafield, Belleisle, Doonfoot, Alloway (of which more later) and Rozelle, as well as the Esplanade and much of the town centre, such as the railway station. This is largely owner-occupied stock, whether ‘solid Scottish granite’ or ‘solid Scottish bungalow’. In 2022 the Conservatives led the way in Ayr West with over 39% of the STV first preference vote compared with under 22% for the SNP and a mere 11% for Labour. This south western quadrant of Ayr has been solidly Tory for many decades.
Ayr North by contrast, saw the SNP well ahead with 46% between their two candidates (both of whom were elected in a four member ward), Labour in second (24%) and Conservatives third (20.5%). North includes the large peripheral former council estates such as Lochside (there is no loch) and Whitletts and Dalmilling (both of which having modern-tenement style social rented flats), along with poorer terraced housing nearer the centre such as Woodside and Wallacetown, around the secondary station of Newton-on-Ayr. Ayr East lies between the two, both socially and politically – SNP 39% in 2022, Conservative 30%, Labour 16%. There were Independent candidates too, but the Liberal Democrats are currently making very little impact in Ayr town, with 2.2% in East their best showing in May. Alba did even worse.
Ayr West also has the largest electorate of the three Ayr wards at present, with 14,000 voters, compared with 11,000 in North and 10,000 in East. If overall Ayr itself is now competitive between the Conservative side and the SNP, as formerly it was between Tory and Labour, the other two sections of the constituency also come close to cancelling each other out. Carrick is the name for a Scottish earldom dating back to the late 12th century. The present incumbent is William, otherwise known as the Prince of Wales, Duke of Rothesay etc etc, as the earldom became an appurtenance of the Scottish crown in 1469. Carrick lies to the south of Ayr and is at present included in South Ayrshire district, where it covers two wards. Maybole, though it has a population of less than 5,000, is the largest community in one of these (Maybole, North Carrick and Colyton). In May 2022 the Conservatives led here on first preferences with 35% to 32% for the SNP and just 12% for Labour, though the picture was slightly clouded by 20% between Independents and others. In the other Carrick ward the Independents actually polled more votes than any of the parties. This is Girvan (population 6,000) and South Carrick. For what it’s worth the Tories were the strongest of the parties here with 28% to 23% for the SNP and 8% for Labour. Carrick is dominated by tourism and farming, with very little industry. A defining image for some may be Turnberry golf course, with its stunning views of the prominent volcanic plug of Ailsa Craig, a venue for the Open Championship four times – but not since it was bought by one Donald Trump in 2014. The staunch governing body, the Royal and Ancient has recently (post storming of the Capitol in 2021) stated it will not consider ‘Trump Turnberry’ "until we are convinced that the focus will be on the championship, the players and the course itself".
If Carrick is, along with west and south Ayr, the strong area for the Conservatives within this constituency, a weak point is the ‘Cumnock’ section. This is in fact part of the East Ayrshire unitary authority, covering the two wards of Doon Valley and Cumnock/New Cumnock, which are in the Afton valley. Here the significant background is that of coal mining, although it has been many decades since there were actually any working pits. There were 33 mines in Ayrshire on nationalization in 1947.
www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/coal-mining-in-the-british-isles/scotland/
The list shows the chronology of closure. The last in New Cumnock went in 1969, in Dalmellington in the upper Doon valley in 1975. Communities like New Cumnock, Dalmellington and its neighbour Bellsbank are remote, depressing and in some ways downright weird – they are surrounded by hills, lochs and forests, yet display as gritty a pattern of dour grey housing estates as, say, inner (or outer) Glasgow. They present quite a shock to the tourist motoring north from the glens of Galloway. The same is to a lesser extent true of places further in towards Ayr such as Patna and Dalrymple. This area was once overwhelmingly encouraging for Labour in successive elections in South Ayrshire; for example the byelection result in March 1970 when Jim Sillars defended the seat of the late Emrys Hughes with a much smaller swing than the government had been suffering in 1967-69 may have helped to persuade Harold Wilson to make his misjudgment of calling an early general election in June of that year. In May 2022 the East Ayrshire council elections in these two wards both found the Conservatives languishing. In Doon Valley their 16.6% was only good enough for fourth place behind the dominant Independents (40%) followed by Labour (23%) and SNP (20%), but in Cumnock and New Cumnock Labour traditions were still evident, as they topped the poll with 43%, close to their best result anywhere in Ayrshire that year. The SNP were second with 36% and the Tories a distant third (18%). Independent and other candidates did not figure significantly here.
It seemed that despite the Cumnocks, the Conservatives remained the stronger challengers to the SNP in this constituency. The Scottish Parliament elections of 2021 were fought on different boundaries, essentially those of the UK seats in existence up to and including the 2005 general election, but in Ayr the Conservative finished only 170 votes behind the SNP, and in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, while SNP’s lead was over 4,300, the Tories were second ahead of Labour here as well. This seat, like all the others in Ayrshire, has been recommended to be unchanged in the parliamentary boundary review.
He moved around quite a bit later, but the Scottish national poet Robert Burns was born in Alloway, just south of Ayr. It is tempting, considering the successive discomfiture of Labour in the 2015 general election, then the SNP in 2017, and the Conservatives in 2019, to comment that the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley. The temptation must also be resisted, given the element of ‘a plague on all your houses’, to liken the electorate’s view of politicians to ‘To A Louse’. However there are some more subtle nuances that can be drawn. The demographics show that overall, despite the very considerable internal variation, this southern constituency in Ayrshire is still predominantly working class, despite the now distant memory of coal mining, with a relatively high proportion of social housing and low educational qualifications, along with a consistently high unemployment rate. Yet it is also clear that Labour were firmly in third place here, a clear indication of their decline in Scotland. No more ‘sweet Afton’ calling the tune here. The Conservatives did build on their traditional zones of strength within the seat to harness the bulk of the ‘unionist’ vote. However especially given the problems besetting the London government, it is likely that the most appropriate Burns reference is probably to the super-patriotic Scots Wha Hae – and that the Nationalists may hold on. That would represent an achievement: the first ‘hold’ for well over a decade in the previously fickle constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock.
Following the final recommendations of the Scottish Commission in late June 2023, this is one of ten constituencies north of the border with completely unchanged boundaries since the 2019 general election.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.6% 114/650
Owner-occupied 63.8% 409/650
Private rented 9.7% 592/650
Social rented 25.2% 107/650
White 98.9% 15/650
Black 0.1% 626/650
Asian 0.7% 586/650
Managerial & professional 25.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.6%
Employed in mining or quarrying 1.4% 14/650
Employed in human health and social work activities 18.9% 7/650
Employed in caring, leisure and other service occupations 12.8% 11/650
Degree level 21.0% 472/650
No qualifications 32.9% 40/650
Students 6.7% 354/650
2019 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Allan Dorans 20,272 43.5 +9.4
Conservative Martin Dowey 17,943 38.5 -1.6
Labour Duncan Townson 6,219 13.3 -10.6
Liberal Democrats Helena Bongard 2,158 4.6 +2.7
SNP Majority 2,329 5.0
2019 electorate 71,970
Turnout 46,592 64.7 -0.2
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 5.5 C to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Ayr_Carrick_and_Cumnock_0.pdf
In its first two contests, in 2005 and 2010, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock appeared to be a safe Labour seat. Nearly 70% of its electorate came from the former Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. Sandra Osborne, actually the incumbent from the less safe Ayr, twice won the redrawn constituency with a majority of just under 10,000. The Conservatives finished second. Then in the astonishing SNP sweep in 2015, a year after the Scottish independence referendum, she was ousted by the Nationalist Corri Wilson. It was not even close. The SNP share rose from 18% to 49% and they had a lead of over 11,000. Then in 2017 there were more massive swings, and it was the Tories’ turn to advance from 3rd to 1st. The victor was an unusual figure in the Conservative party, Bill Grant: a popular local, a miner’s son born in the Doon Valley (in the 'Cumnock' third of the seat) and for over 30 years working in the Ayr fire service. He was already in his mid 60s in 2017, and after only two years chose to retire. The loss of his undoubted personal vote will have made some difference, but whether it would have been enough to stop the SNP regaining Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and returning Allan Dorans to Westminster (December 2019 majority 2,329) is a moot point.
Each of the three contending parties through the 2010s had areas of strength to call on within this very disparate constituency. Ayr itself is a substantial town of over 50,000 souls and harbours a wide variety of neighbourhoods. Recent proof of that can be seen in the most recent South Ayrshire council election results, in May 2022. Ayr West ward lies along the Firth of Clyde seafront but also effectively covers the southern residential areas of the town, and includes the neighbourhoods of Seafield, Belleisle, Doonfoot, Alloway (of which more later) and Rozelle, as well as the Esplanade and much of the town centre, such as the railway station. This is largely owner-occupied stock, whether ‘solid Scottish granite’ or ‘solid Scottish bungalow’. In 2022 the Conservatives led the way in Ayr West with over 39% of the STV first preference vote compared with under 22% for the SNP and a mere 11% for Labour. This south western quadrant of Ayr has been solidly Tory for many decades.
Ayr North by contrast, saw the SNP well ahead with 46% between their two candidates (both of whom were elected in a four member ward), Labour in second (24%) and Conservatives third (20.5%). North includes the large peripheral former council estates such as Lochside (there is no loch) and Whitletts and Dalmilling (both of which having modern-tenement style social rented flats), along with poorer terraced housing nearer the centre such as Woodside and Wallacetown, around the secondary station of Newton-on-Ayr. Ayr East lies between the two, both socially and politically – SNP 39% in 2022, Conservative 30%, Labour 16%. There were Independent candidates too, but the Liberal Democrats are currently making very little impact in Ayr town, with 2.2% in East their best showing in May. Alba did even worse.
Ayr West also has the largest electorate of the three Ayr wards at present, with 14,000 voters, compared with 11,000 in North and 10,000 in East. If overall Ayr itself is now competitive between the Conservative side and the SNP, as formerly it was between Tory and Labour, the other two sections of the constituency also come close to cancelling each other out. Carrick is the name for a Scottish earldom dating back to the late 12th century. The present incumbent is William, otherwise known as the Prince of Wales, Duke of Rothesay etc etc, as the earldom became an appurtenance of the Scottish crown in 1469. Carrick lies to the south of Ayr and is at present included in South Ayrshire district, where it covers two wards. Maybole, though it has a population of less than 5,000, is the largest community in one of these (Maybole, North Carrick and Colyton). In May 2022 the Conservatives led here on first preferences with 35% to 32% for the SNP and just 12% for Labour, though the picture was slightly clouded by 20% between Independents and others. In the other Carrick ward the Independents actually polled more votes than any of the parties. This is Girvan (population 6,000) and South Carrick. For what it’s worth the Tories were the strongest of the parties here with 28% to 23% for the SNP and 8% for Labour. Carrick is dominated by tourism and farming, with very little industry. A defining image for some may be Turnberry golf course, with its stunning views of the prominent volcanic plug of Ailsa Craig, a venue for the Open Championship four times – but not since it was bought by one Donald Trump in 2014. The staunch governing body, the Royal and Ancient has recently (post storming of the Capitol in 2021) stated it will not consider ‘Trump Turnberry’ "until we are convinced that the focus will be on the championship, the players and the course itself".
If Carrick is, along with west and south Ayr, the strong area for the Conservatives within this constituency, a weak point is the ‘Cumnock’ section. This is in fact part of the East Ayrshire unitary authority, covering the two wards of Doon Valley and Cumnock/New Cumnock, which are in the Afton valley. Here the significant background is that of coal mining, although it has been many decades since there were actually any working pits. There were 33 mines in Ayrshire on nationalization in 1947.
www.nmrs.org.uk/mines-map/coal-mining-in-the-british-isles/scotland/
The list shows the chronology of closure. The last in New Cumnock went in 1969, in Dalmellington in the upper Doon valley in 1975. Communities like New Cumnock, Dalmellington and its neighbour Bellsbank are remote, depressing and in some ways downright weird – they are surrounded by hills, lochs and forests, yet display as gritty a pattern of dour grey housing estates as, say, inner (or outer) Glasgow. They present quite a shock to the tourist motoring north from the glens of Galloway. The same is to a lesser extent true of places further in towards Ayr such as Patna and Dalrymple. This area was once overwhelmingly encouraging for Labour in successive elections in South Ayrshire; for example the byelection result in March 1970 when Jim Sillars defended the seat of the late Emrys Hughes with a much smaller swing than the government had been suffering in 1967-69 may have helped to persuade Harold Wilson to make his misjudgment of calling an early general election in June of that year. In May 2022 the East Ayrshire council elections in these two wards both found the Conservatives languishing. In Doon Valley their 16.6% was only good enough for fourth place behind the dominant Independents (40%) followed by Labour (23%) and SNP (20%), but in Cumnock and New Cumnock Labour traditions were still evident, as they topped the poll with 43%, close to their best result anywhere in Ayrshire that year. The SNP were second with 36% and the Tories a distant third (18%). Independent and other candidates did not figure significantly here.
It seemed that despite the Cumnocks, the Conservatives remained the stronger challengers to the SNP in this constituency. The Scottish Parliament elections of 2021 were fought on different boundaries, essentially those of the UK seats in existence up to and including the 2005 general election, but in Ayr the Conservative finished only 170 votes behind the SNP, and in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, while SNP’s lead was over 4,300, the Tories were second ahead of Labour here as well. This seat, like all the others in Ayrshire, has been recommended to be unchanged in the parliamentary boundary review.
He moved around quite a bit later, but the Scottish national poet Robert Burns was born in Alloway, just south of Ayr. It is tempting, considering the successive discomfiture of Labour in the 2015 general election, then the SNP in 2017, and the Conservatives in 2019, to comment that the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley. The temptation must also be resisted, given the element of ‘a plague on all your houses’, to liken the electorate’s view of politicians to ‘To A Louse’. However there are some more subtle nuances that can be drawn. The demographics show that overall, despite the very considerable internal variation, this southern constituency in Ayrshire is still predominantly working class, despite the now distant memory of coal mining, with a relatively high proportion of social housing and low educational qualifications, along with a consistently high unemployment rate. Yet it is also clear that Labour were firmly in third place here, a clear indication of their decline in Scotland. No more ‘sweet Afton’ calling the tune here. The Conservatives did build on their traditional zones of strength within the seat to harness the bulk of the ‘unionist’ vote. However especially given the problems besetting the London government, it is likely that the most appropriate Burns reference is probably to the super-patriotic Scots Wha Hae – and that the Nationalists may hold on. That would represent an achievement: the first ‘hold’ for well over a decade in the previously fickle constituency of Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock.
Following the final recommendations of the Scottish Commission in late June 2023, this is one of ten constituencies north of the border with completely unchanged boundaries since the 2019 general election.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.6% 114/650
Owner-occupied 63.8% 409/650
Private rented 9.7% 592/650
Social rented 25.2% 107/650
White 98.9% 15/650
Black 0.1% 626/650
Asian 0.7% 586/650
Managerial & professional 25.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 32.6%
Employed in mining or quarrying 1.4% 14/650
Employed in human health and social work activities 18.9% 7/650
Employed in caring, leisure and other service occupations 12.8% 11/650
Degree level 21.0% 472/650
No qualifications 32.9% 40/650
Students 6.7% 354/650
2019 general election: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Allan Dorans 20,272 43.5 +9.4
Conservative Martin Dowey 17,943 38.5 -1.6
Labour Duncan Townson 6,219 13.3 -10.6
Liberal Democrats Helena Bongard 2,158 4.6 +2.7
SNP Majority 2,329 5.0
2019 electorate 71,970
Turnout 46,592 64.7 -0.2
SNP gain from Conservative
Swing 5.5 C to SNP
Boundary Changes and 2019 Notional Results
N/A unchanged seat
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Ayr_Carrick_and_Cumnock_0.pdf
