r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jul 18, 2023 8:47:39 GMT
Pottering around Kilmersdon this morning, must inside S&M, across the border from NES. LDs were leafletting, no: 6 according to one resident ? They also had a leaflet from the Greens, but nothing from the Tories or Labour. Some field posters for the Tory, who evidently is ‘One of us’. Was chief whip Wendy Chamberlain part of the leafletting team? 😀 |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jul 18, 2023 8:49:28 GMT
It's funny when people call this Somerset & Frome - where do they think Frome is? I'd expect London-based media outlets to know about Frome, but in 2010, the BBC referred to the seat of Brighton, Hove, which was even more surprising to hear from a London-based media outfit. Known locally as the London Borough of Frome |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 18, 2023 10:19:08 GMT
It's funny when people call this Somerset & Frome - where do they think Frome is? I'd expect London-based media outlets to know about Frome, but in 2010, the BBC referred to the seat of Brighton, Hove, which was even more surprising to hear from a London-based media outfit. Known locally as the London Borough of Frome It was definitely London prices when I was there on Sunday! |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 18, 2023 16:49:04 GMT
Could Labour end up losing their deposit in this by election? Very likely but the Lib Dems' tactical vote squeeze will only go so far, as seen in North Shropshire in 2021.
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Post by carolus on Jul 18, 2023 17:07:52 GMT
Could Labour end up losing their deposit in this by election? Very likely but the Lib Dems' tactical vote squeeze will only go so far, as seen in North Shropshire in 2021. You could just as easily cite Tiverton & Honiton as evidence the other way. |
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2023 18:00:40 GMT
If Labour holds its deposit it will not be by much.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 18, 2023 18:08:49 GMT
If Labour holds its deposit it will not be by much. Doesn’t appear that any work has been done. The constituency is less than a mile up the road, we got a message on our local WhatsApp group about a fortnight ago, saying there was a canvas session the next day, followed quickly by a cancellation 🤔 |
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Post by jakegb on Jul 18, 2023 20:09:43 GMT
I'm opting for a narrow Lab held deposit (6 - 7%). They have their hands full at the moment, granted; but surely the Bristol crew (and possibly S Wales) could have mobilised support more in this constituency. A score of 15 - 20% + would signal a wider nationwide threat.
A different era granted. But Labour's decent second place in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election gave a significant indication that Labour were likely to win big in the general - and that was even before Blair's election as leader.
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 18, 2023 21:49:18 GMT
I'm opting for a narrow Lab held deposit (6 - 7%). They have their hands full at the moment, granted; but surely the Bristol crew (and possibly S Wales) could have mobilised support more in this constituency. A score of 15 - 20% + would signal a wider nationwide threat. A different era granted. But Labour's decent second place in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election gave a significant indication that Labour were likely to win big in the general - and that was even before Blair's election as leader. I think that's wildly optimistic - I can't see Labour saving their deposit here in a traditionally weak seat for them and where they are starting from third. The fact the Lib Dems are issuing letters from Green Party members urging Greens to vote tactically Lib Dem suggests the Labour vote has already collapsed (otherwise it would be a Labour 'letter') and they are squeezing the residual Green vote in and around Frome. I suspect the Greens will as a result also lose their deposit as the Lib Dem majority soars well into five figures (possibly the largest majority of any current Lib Dem MP. |
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Post by olympian95 on Jul 18, 2023 22:14:01 GMT
I'm opting for a narrow Lab held deposit (6 - 7%). They have their hands full at the moment, granted; but surely the Bristol crew (and possibly S Wales) could have mobilised support more in this constituency. A score of 15 - 20% + would signal a wider nationwide threat. A different era granted. But Labour's decent second place in the 1994 Eastleigh by-election gave a significant indication that Labour were likely to win big in the general - and that was even before Blair's election as leader. I think that's wildly optimistic - I can't see Labour saving their deposit here in a traditionally weak seat for them and where they are starting from third. The fact the Lib Dems are issuing letters from Green Party members urging Greens to vote tactically Lib Dem suggests the Labour vote has already collapsed (otherwise it would be a Labour 'letter') and they are squeezing the residual Green vote in and around Frome. I suspect the Greens will as a result also lose their deposit as the Lib Dem majority soars well into five figures (possibly the largest majority of any current Lib Dem MP. Very much agree with this - Labour certain to lose deposit and probably Greens too. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 18, 2023 22:33:39 GMT
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jul 20, 2023 21:29:45 GMT
Interesting that there have been no posts within the few days leading up to the election.
Though I suppose the only big question is whether they get that five figure majority or not.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 20, 2023 21:33:02 GMT
I’ve heard anecdotally that some people have had 20 leaflets from the Lib Dem’s. I can’t imagine many people will think this but i can’t really imagine that the 20th leaflet will be the one that persuades someone either
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 20, 2023 21:35:03 GMT
I’ve heard anecdotally that some people have had 20 leaflets from the Lib Dem’s. I can’t imagine many people will think this but i can’t really imagine that the 20th leaflet will be the one that persuades someone either People who put up that kind of nonsense were always going to vote Tory anyway. |
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Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 20, 2023 21:35:23 GMT
I’ve heard anecdotally that some people have had 20 leaflets from the Lib Dem’s. I can’t imagine many people will think this but i can’t really imagine that the 20th leaflet will be the one that persuades someone either My attitude towards volume of leaflets was always that what was too much for the least tolerant voter was probably just right for the average voter. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2023 21:42:15 GMT
Lib Dems - unusually - are saying this is a historic victory for them, showing they are back in force in the South West. (Ed Davey, according to the BBC live feed.)
Not the usual 10-11pm playbook on election night...
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Jul 20, 2023 21:46:12 GMT
I suspect the Greens will hold their deposit, just. They will comfortably beat Labour.
The Lib Dem messaging during the day has been very mixed.
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aidypiez
Lib Dem
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Post by aidypiez on Jul 20, 2023 22:16:34 GMT
I'd be very surprised to see Ed tweet something like this unless he was sure it was a dead cert.
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 20, 2023 22:28:49 GMT
I'd be very surprised to see Ed tweet something like this unless he was sure it was a dead cert. Immediately after close of polls they launched an appeal for cash for mid Beds. |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Jul 20, 2023 22:42:34 GMT
I'd be very surprised to see Ed tweet something like this unless he was sure it was a dead cert. Ditto Farron and this: |
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