aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Jul 17, 2023 10:25:30 GMT
Tories were favourites for both. What about Copeland? That wasn't an easy one. The Tories were clear favourites with polls putting them ahead. Nevertheless, that and Hartlepool were very good results even if "priced in". Gaining a set in a by-election in government is a rare event. Even the Mitcham and Morden one could be attributed to the centre left being split. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:39:08 GMT
The Tories were clear favourites with polls putting them ahead. Nevertheless, that and Hartlepool were very good results even if "priced in". Gaining a set in a by-election in government is a rare event. Even the Mitcham and Morden one could be attributed to the centre left being split. The nuclear power issue plus Corbyn's toxicity doomed Labour in Copeland in Feb 2017. However, had there not been a by election Labour would probably have held the seat at the June GE. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 10:40:27 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? Batley & Spen 2021? Before that, Monklands East 1994? |
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Post by phil156 on Jul 17, 2023 10:40:30 GMT
The count is on Thursday evening - confirmed
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 17, 2023 10:43:54 GMT
The Labour win in Monklands East was totally expected. Batley & Spen is a much better call. Peterborough was also a by-election where the Tories must have at times expected to win, and probably were ahead a couple of weeks before polling day, at least that was the feeling on the ground that was reported to me. After all, the Tories were ahead in the polls and the by-election was a totally unnecessary one caused by criminal behaviour by the elected-as-Labour MP.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2023 10:48:17 GMT
The Labour win in Monklands East was totally expected. Batley & Spen is a much better call. Peterborough was also a by-election where the Tories must have at times expected to win, and probably were ahead a couple of weeks before polling day, at least that was the feeling on the ground that was reported to me. After all, the Tories were ahead in the polls and the by-election was a totally unnecessary one caused by criminal behaviour by the elected-as-Labour MP. It was the Brexit party that was expected to win in Peterborough (and indeed came very close to doing so) |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:50:57 GMT
The Labour win in Monklands East was totally expected. Batley & Spen is a much better call. Peterborough was also a by-election where the Tories must have at times expected to win, and probably were ahead a couple of weeks before polling day, at least that was the feeling on the ground that was reported to me. After all, the Tories were ahead in the polls and the by-election was a totally unnecessary one caused by criminal behaviour by the elected-as-Labour MP. Were the Tories ahead in the polls in May/June 2019 at the time of the Peterborough by election? I recall the Brexit party being strong favourites. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 10:52:22 GMT
The Labour win in Monklands East was totally expected. Batley & Spen is a much better call. Peterborough was also a by-election where the Tories must have at times expected to win, and probably were ahead a couple of weeks before polling day, at least that was the feeling on the ground that was reported to me. After all, the Tories were ahead in the polls and the by-election was a totally unnecessary one caused by criminal behaviour by the elected-as-Labour MP. Were Labour expected to win Heywood & Middleton 2014? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 11:00:17 GMT
The Labour win in Monklands East was totally expected. Batley & Spen is a much better call. Peterborough was also a by-election where the Tories must have at times expected to win, and probably were ahead a couple of weeks before polling day, at least that was the feeling on the ground that was reported to me. After all, the Tories were ahead in the polls and the by-election was a totally unnecessary one caused by criminal behaviour by the elected-as-Labour MP. Were Labour expected to win Heywood & Middleton 2014? Yes - the small majority came as a surprise. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 17, 2023 11:02:06 GMT
To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? A Labour gain in Selby this week is a good result for Labour but it’s not really one that they are not expected to win. Batley & Spen? If not that then Peterborough certainly Of course what both of these had in common was the presence of a "minor" party that was obviously doing very well and making the outcome less clear. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 11:02:23 GMT
Were Labour expected to win Heywood & Middleton 2014? Yes - the small majority came as a surprise. Portent of the future |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 11:14:18 GMT
Yes - the small majority came as a surprise. Portent of the future The Tory vote was only 12.3% at the 2014 by election. Ukip came very close to a shock win. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 17, 2023 11:25:59 GMT
Glenrothes 2008 is an example where the SNP were widely expected to gain the seat
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 17, 2023 14:24:38 GMT
Glenrothes 2008 is an example where the SNP were widely expected to gain the seat That, and the absence of a marked register, prompted a number of conspiracy theories that the result was rigged in some way. I do recall my surprise and delight at Labour's win, so great was the narrative that the SNP would 'walk it'. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 17, 2023 20:21:05 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? A Labour gain in Selby this week is a good result for Labour but it’s not really one that they are not expected to win. Not a Labour gain, but Chesham & Amersham was a big miss. I still don't really understand why the odds on the Lib Dems for that one were so long (or, rather, why enough people weren't betting on them to drive the odds down). |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 20:34:44 GMT
To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? A Labour gain in Selby this week is a good result for Labour but it’s not really one that they are not expected to win. Not a Labour gain, but Chesham & Amersham was a big miss. I still don't really understand why the odds on the Lib Dems for that one were so long (or, rather, why enough people weren't betting on them to drive the odds down). Possibly because there has been less by election polling in recent years compared to what was common back in the 70s and 80s. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 17, 2023 20:42:06 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death…
Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 17, 2023 21:30:06 GMT
Glenrothes 2008 is an example where the SNP were widely expected to gain the seat That, and the absence of a marked register, prompted a number of conspiracy theories that the result was rigged in some way. I do recall my surprise and delight at Labour's win, so great was the narrative that the SNP would 'walk it'. It was only about three months after the Glasgow East by-election, Labour’s situation was only getting worse and Glenrothes was an area the SNP already had some strength in so there seemed to be a few assumptions where that was concerned |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 17, 2023 21:39:02 GMT
That, and the absence of a marked register, prompted a number of conspiracy theories that the result was rigged in some way. I do recall my surprise and delight at Labour's win, so great was the narrative that the SNP would 'walk it'. It was only about three months after the Glasgow East by-election, Labour’s situation was only getting worse and Glenrothes was an area the SNP already had some strength in so there seemed to be a few assumptions where that was concerned I was working for Rob Flello at the time and he spent the last week of the campaign in the constituency, having also been to Glasgow East. The differences he highlighted in the report back I had to type were: organisational - in Glasgow the late MP and the MSP hadn’t spoken to each other for years and refused to campaign together, and on one afternoon he went doorstep canvassing only to discover that the route he’d been given was in the neighbouring constituency; a very much larger well of support for Gordon Brown in Glenrothes (local boy made good?); and much more popular candidate, who people seemed to genuinely like and was very effective on the doorstep unlike in Glasgow. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2023 5:05:40 GMT
Narrowing odds for a Conservative hold in Uxbridge & South Ruislip (from 10/1 to 8/1)
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