graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,348
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Jul 16, 2023 23:50:24 GMT
Isn't something similar the case with Wilson? There wasn't kne alternative candidate with credibility across the party as a whole. Maybe also relevant that there were a lot more by-elections then, so maybe it wasn't quite as big a blow as it might seem if the Tories do lose all three next week
And to what extent did by-election 'machines' exist in those days? How bothered were parties about winning specific contests?
I wasn't alive, and without wall-to-wall coverage, there's not a lot to go on, but I suspect it wasn't as it is now. And when contests were triggered by a sitting candidate's death, I'd imagine the politicians of the day may have had a bit of a 'go softly out of respect' attitude, rather than going all out on the campaign trail as early as possible.
I know the cliche is that Dr. David Owen gave rise to this phenomenon, but is that entirely true?
I would actually suggest that by election results were taken far more at face value than is the case today.We are now well aware that the swings recorded at these elections are unlikely to be repeated at a General Election, but back in March 1968 when four by elections held on the same day saw swings against Labour in the range of 15.5% to 21.5% commentators genuinely appeared to believe that an immdiate election would have seen Labour reduced to 80 seats or so.No allowance was made for likely'swingback'. Far more effort was also made to cover the results with 'By election Specials' being very much the norm. |
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Jul 17, 2023 6:22:45 GMT
I recall regular by-election opinion polls back in the seventies and eighties as well… it was all quite frenetic
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 6:55:21 GMT
The Torygraph says Johnson hasn't campaigned here.
Boris spoke to Tuckwell on the phone for 30 seconds or so.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2023 7:02:07 GMT
I recall regular by-election opinion polls back in the seventies and eighties as well… it was all quite frenetic Some big swings in the 70s - Berwick-upon-Tweed, Ely, Edge Hill, Ripon, Sutton & Cheam etc. The winning party more often than not held on to the seat at the subsequent election back then (sans the Ripon and Sutton & Cheam examples I gave). It's hard to see the Lib Dems holding Chesham & Amersham, North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton in the next GE, for example. I may be wrong, though. Still, politics is more volatile than during the 1973 oil crisis or the Winter of Discontent, IMO, but I was born in 1997 so I didn't live through the 70s. I did live through the 70s and was at my most active in politics at that time. I would contend that politics was less volatile, more inclusive, more tribal, more class conscious and far less febrile then. Then the majority of the electorate were born into, and stayed in, a 'given' political environment. Those with a good education, in white collar jobs and who owned their home were likely to be Conservative. Now the core tribal vote for the majors is much diminished and the Conservatives gain support in what would have been heartland Labour areas, whilst the chattering classes are much more likely to be Labour. I preferred the 70s arrangement by far and I reflect the vast majority of the electorate by being nearly entirely disengaged with contemporary politics that only concerns itself with trivia, positioning, pretending, posturing and grandstanding, whilst doing nothing at all about immigration, energy, housing, defence, infrastructure, mental health, public services and the breakdown of virtually everything. But is has developed positions on Ukraine, transgender, pronouns, men in frocks, curtailing free speech, destroying humour and worshipping black everything. I can't be bothered who wins anything or why as it will make not a whit of difference as they will be entirely as useless as the ones evicted. |
|
skyep
Non-Aligned
Posts: 62
|
Post by skyep on Jul 17, 2023 7:02:40 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2023 7:22:20 GMT
By sheer chance I note that there is a headline poll for this seat (and probably for the others?) and I have not and shall not be voting because I am just not interested in what the members here think or in the result either. I mention this as I was drawn to this Forum by just such excitements and engagement in the mechanics. All that has been lost to me over a decade and a half by the utterly dreadful conduct of many MPs and the vacuous uselessness and rank incompetence of both government and opposition. We are a nation of idle shirkers lounging at home and pretending to work at jobs that don't matter at all. We are over the edge of a precipice of social, economic and moral decline that is stark and will become more and more apparant year-on-year. No one knows what is creating the wealth that funds the quite unsustainable lifestyles of you all. If you knew and you bothered to notice that it is daily withering on the vine for lack of attention and the round abuse it has suffered for years from the liberal caring left, you might be more concerned? But emoting over Ukraine, transgender and the non-existant 'climate emergency' has sapped your scant energies for anything more useful.
My friends. Prepare for the disintegation and penury you all richly deserve.
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2023 7:32:49 GMT
By sheer chance I note that there is a headline poll for this seat (and probably for the others?) and I have not and shall not be voting because I am just not interested in what the members here think or in the result either. I mention this as I was drawn to this Forum by just such excitements and engagement in the mechanics. All that has been lost to me over a decade and a half by the utterly dreadful conduct of many MPs and the vacuous uselessness and rank incompetence of both government and opposition. We are a nation of idle shirkers lounging at home and pretending to work at jobs that don't matter at all. We are over the edge of a precipice of social, economic and moral decline that is stark and will become more and more apparant year-on-year. No one knows what is creating the wealth that funds the quite unsustainable lifestyles of you all. If you knew and you bothered to notice that it is daily withering on the vine for lack of attention and the round abuse it has suffered for years from the liberal caring left, you might be more concerned? But emoting over Ukraine, transgender and the non-existant 'climate emergency' has sapped your scant energies for anything more useful. My friends. Prepare for the disintegation and penury you all richly deserve. Well, you can speak for yourself, i'm sure.  |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2023 7:37:16 GMT
Kindle only, methinks. And published by a distinguished member of this forum... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 7:42:57 GMT
What if John McDonnell got enough votes to challenge Gordon Brown in 2007? How much does Brown win by? |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2023 7:44:10 GMT
By sheer chance I note that there is a headline poll for this seat (and probably for the others?) and I have not and shall not be voting because I am just not interested in what the members here think or in the result either. I mention this as I was drawn to this Forum by just such excitements and engagement in the mechanics. All that has been lost to me over a decade and a half by the utterly dreadful conduct of many MPs and the vacuous uselessness and rank incompetence of both government and opposition. We are a nation of idle shirkers lounging at home and pretending to work at jobs that don't matter at all. We are over the edge of a precipice of social, economic and moral decline that is stark and will become more and more apparant year-on-year. No one knows what is creating the wealth that funds the quite unsustainable lifestyles of you all. If you knew and you bothered to notice that it is daily withering on the vine for lack of attention and the round abuse it has suffered for years from the liberal caring left, you might be more concerned? But emoting over Ukraine, transgender and the non-existant 'climate emergency' has sapped your scant energies for anything more useful. My friends. Prepare for the disintegation and penury you all richly deserve. Well, you can speak for yourself, i'm sure. Yes. I do the majority of 'speaking for myself'! I rarely if ever worked from home during my active years. Now in my 80s I am probably more mentally and culturally active than most people and put in a good shift every day on study, reading, research and my films project. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2023 7:46:42 GMT
Well, you can speak for yourself, i'm sure. Yes. I do the majority of 'speaking for myself'! I rarely if ever worked from home during my active years. Now in my 80s I am probably more mentally and culturally active than most people and put in a good shift every day on study, reading, research and my films project.I don't think many people would dispute this. |
|
|
|
Post by shadsy on Jul 17, 2023 9:49:26 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win?
By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 9:53:43 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. Uxbridge 1997? Richmond (Yorks) 1989? Kensington 1988? |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 17, 2023 10:01:02 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. How expected were the Crewe and Norwich gains during Labour’s most recent term? |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2023 10:05:04 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. How far back do these go? My guess is the last time was Uxbridge in 1997 |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,639
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 17, 2023 10:12:49 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? A Labour gain in Selby this week is a good result for Labour but it’s not really one that they are not expected to win. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2023 10:14:09 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. To some extent, isn’t that because by elections are so polled/ focussed on these days, that very few are won by someone who isn’t expected to. When did Labour last win one that they weren’t expected to? A Labour gain in Selby this week is a good result for Labour but it’s not really one that they are not expected to win. Batley & Spen? If not that then Peterborough certainly |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Jul 17, 2023 10:16:12 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. How expected were the Crewe and Norwich gains during Labour’s most recent term? Tories were favourites for both. What about Copeland? That wasn't an easy one. amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/23/who-will-win-the-copeland-byelection Suggests odds were very close between labour and conservatives - admittedly conservatives a fraction infront. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,348
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:19:14 GMT
When was the last time the Tories won a by-election that they weren't expected to win? By "expected" I mean the general consensus on the day - I can only go back so far using betting odds as a measure, and haven't managed to find an example. How far back do these go? My guess is the last time was Uxbridge in 1997 I would agree. Beyond that I would suggest West Derbyshire in May 1986. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,348
Member is Online
|
Post by graham on Jul 17, 2023 10:21:06 GMT
How expected were the Crewe and Norwich gains during Labour’s most recent term? Tories were favourites for both. What about Copeland? That wasn't an easy one. The Tories were clear favourites with polls putting them ahead. |
|
